Play resumes in the (symbolic) second half of the season, when the Tampa Bay Rays kickoff a three game series against the Minnesota Twins, at Target Field Friday. Neither the Rays nor the Twins were particularly happy with the first half of the season, and both will need strong starts following the All-Star Break to avoid irrelevancy.
For the Rays, they seek a ninth road win in 10 games. This series presents Tampa Bay with an opportunity to make up some ground in the Wildcard standings, against the team that is directly over them. They start the day eight games out of a Wildcard spot (behind the Twins) and 9-1/2 back in the AL East. What’s more, their 13-5 record since June 25 is the second-best in the majors.
A cursory warning, it will not be as easy as in previous years. The Rays walked away with the Knutson Cup in Spring Training, however the Twins took two-of-three from Tampa Bay back in April. Minnesota won five of their last six prior to the All-Star Break (outscoring opponents 38-17) as well.
Kyle Gibson: Gibson (4-4, 3.70 ERA) lasted just two innings back on the Fourth of July, surrendering six runs (five earned) on six hits and a walk while recording zero strikeouts against the Yankees. That start was but one of seven where the ground ball pitcher yielded four or more earned runs, including his last outing against the Rays. Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs writes,
Gibson doesn’t have quite the velocity… .but he does throw three pitches, complementing the fastball with a slider and change up. Both his secondary pitches have been quite effective, inducing swinging strikes at a slightly better than league average clip, while also generating lots of grounders.
His four-seam fastball, though it does gets grounders at a better than average rate, simply doesn’t miss enough bats. Oddly, his two-seamer has been significantly better at inducing swinging strikes, which isn’t usually the case for the typical pitcher. The two-seamer also generates more grounders.
Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (2-5, BB), Matt Joyce (2-5, 2 RBI), James Loney (2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (1-4, BB), Ben Zobrist (2-5, BB).
Kevin Correia: The Rays haven’t faced Correia (5-11, 4.61 ERA) this season, though in his previous two starts against Tampa Bay, they handed the 33 year-old RHP an 0-1 record, with a 4.76 ERA. Then again, Correia’s posted a 2.30 ERA over his last seven starts, compiling a 1.21 WHIP despite a 3-4 record in that span. Over that period, Correia made four starts in which he surrendered just one earned run or less. He changed his pitch selection slightly, cutting back on his cutter and relying more on his curveball and change up after he began the season with a 6.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (7-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Logan Forsythe (1-4, 3 RBI), Jose Molina (1-4, 2B).
Phil Hughes: The Rays have had previous success against Hughes (10-5, 3.92 ERA) over the last few seasons, tagging the 28 year-old RHP with a 1-2 record, and a 4.78 ERA. Still, Hughes has been has been very good this season — producing a slightly higher WAR than Mashiro Tanaka this season (the highest of his eight-year career), while putting together a league-best walk rate of just 2.4%. If Hughes’ overall ERA speaks to anything, it’s that he’s been somewhat inconsistent. In eight of his 19 starts, Hughes gave up four (or more) earned runs. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (7-20, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Matt Joyce (7-15, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB), James Loney (7-11, 2 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (8-24, 2B, RBI, 3 BB).
Noteworthiness
- Per STATS writer Jordan Garretson, The Twins are the only AL club — besides the Rays — Alex Cobb (4-6, 4.14 ERA) has yet to face. Cobb gave up two runs over 6-2/3 innings and did not get a decision in a 5-4 loss to Kansas City on July 9.
- Matt Joyce went 5-for-11 when the wins won two of three in April, and has hit .395 with 14 RBI over his last 12 contest versus Minnesota.
- Per Marc Topkin, “The Twins went 5-2 at Seattle and Colorado before the All-Star break but are at the bottom of the American League Central (though 1½ games better than the Rays). Star Joe Mauer is sidelined with an oblique strain. The offense isn’t much overall, though 2B Brian Dozier has joined DH Kendry Morales and OF Josh Willingham as a power threat. The rotation, despite expensive upgrades, is a mess. All-Star closer Glenn Perkins anchors a strong bullpen.”
- Ex-Ray Sam Fuld has reached base 15 of his past 24 times, hitting .450 (18-for-40) over his past 13 games.
- The Twins lead 2-1 this season. They’re tied 63-63 overall, and while the Twins lead 35-29 at home, the Rays are 12-4 at Target Field.
- If I may, David Price bested it during the All-Star week
[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyHMVhv5k88″]