After an ugly 2-7 road trip, the Tampa Bay Rays return home to the safer confines of the big top, where they’ll face the Yankees of New York over the next three days. The Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays over the weekend.
At 36-30 on the season, the Rays enter play just six games over .500 and running in third place in the division.
If playing teams well won divisions, the Rays would be AL East champions right now. Hell, all of Tampa Bay’s losses this past week came by one or two runs. However, there are no moral victories in baseball, and win/loss records are not based on feelings.
However, there is something to be said about statistics and the information that can be gleaned from them. It would appear that the Yankees are in a bit of an offensive downswell, at least they have been the last seven days. “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” you might be asking. In short, yes. Let me explain.
Over the last seven days, the only real differences between the Rays and Yankees have been power and on-base percentage (OBP). The Bronx Bummers have been able to get on base — a 9.1 BB% certainly doesn’t hurt — and then depended on ‘thump’ to score runs.
Interestingly enough, while it may not seem like it, Tampa Bay has been able to get runners on base, yet the team hasn’t been able to get those runners over or get them home thanks, in part, to a bloated strikeout rate. In fact, they’ve actually been far luckier the last seven days, as it relates to batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than they had been in the previous six series. You have to turn the calendar all the way back to the middle and end of May to see Tampa Bay with a plus-.300 BABIP. The question then begs: can they get runners over and home against the Yankees? To qoute the Beastie Boys, my “crystal ball ain’t so crystal clear.”
They are clearly missing the bats of Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, but the Rays will be getting at least one reinforcement — Josh Lowe — ahead of the series. And while Lowe slashed an ice-cold .188 BA/.257 OBP/.344 SLG/601 OPS/.259 wOBA line in 71 big-league plate appearances to start the season, his demotion to Triple-A appears to have done the trick, as he hit .299 BA/.382 OBP/.540 SLG/.922 OPS/.401 wOBA in Durham with six homers and 22 runs.
If McClanahan, TBA, and Baz can keep the Yanks in the park, the Rays will be in a good position to put up a fight the next three days.
The Rays enter play 2-5 against the Yankees this season with hearts full of revenge.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to the Shanes — McClanahan (7-3, 1.84 ERA) and Baz (0-1, 5.40 ERA) — sandwiched around a pitcher to be named before the middle game of the series. Aaron Boone will counter with Kermit the Frog Gerrit Cole (6-1, 3.33 ERA), Nestor Cortes (6-2, 1.94 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 2.72 ERA).
Shane McClanahan allowed four runs (one earned) on three hits and two walks over six innings against the Yankees in his last start. He struck out seven. McClanahan allowed only three hits, but two of those were homers — a solo shot to Aaron Judge in the bottom of the first and a three-run shot to Kyle Higashioka in the fifth. However, the left-hander was still able to get through six-plus innings while striking out at least seven for a seventh consecutive start. During that stretch, McClanahan sports a 0.98 ERA with a 9.67 K/BB. Overall, the southpaw maintains a 1.84 ERA and 2.72 FIP, with a 0.86 WHIP, and a 7.00 K/BB across 13 games (78.1 innings) on the season.
Gerrit Cole struck out seven across six scoreless innings while allowing five hits and a walk against Tampa Bay in his last start. Cole bounced back from last week’s five-homer barrage by shutting down the Rays. He loaded the bases in the sixth inning but was able to pitch out of trouble by inducing a double-play ball. It was the sixth time in 12 starts that he allowed one run or fewer while pitching at least six frames. The right-hander has a 3.33 ERA and 0.00 FIP, with a 1.07 WHIP, and a 5.06 K/BB in 73 innings on the season. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (9-19, 3 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB), Yandy Diaz (11-29, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Francisco Mejia (1-4), Harold Ramirez (3-5, 4 RBI)
TBA
Nestor Cortes allowed one run on three hits and three walks over 5.1 innings against the Rays in his last start. He struck out four. Cortes allowed a baserunner in each of the first three innings but eventually settled down and retired eight consecutive batters before giving up a leadoff double to Yandy Diaz in the top of the sixth. After getting the following batter — Harold Ramirez — to pop out in foul territory, Cortes allowed his first run of the game on an RBI double to Manuel Margot. The wheels appeared to fall off the left-hander as he proceeded to walk Randy Arozarena on four pitches before being replaced by Wandy Peralta, who retired back-to-back hitters to escape the threat. Across 12 starts and 69.2 innings, Cortes sports a 1.94 ERA and 2.87 FIP, with a 4.41 K/BB. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (3-6, 3B, 3 RBI, 2BB), Manuel Margot (3-10, 2 2B, RBI, BB), Francisco Mejia (2-4)
Shane Baz got the start Friday and yielded two hits over six scoreless frames against Baltimore. He struck out seven. Baz looked much better in his second start of the season, allowing just three baserunners in the clean outing. He threw 48 of 76 pitches for strikes (63% strike rate), including 14 whiffs (18% SwStr%), and struck out the side in his final frame. He now sports a 5.40 ERA — down from 19.29, mind you — through 8.1 frames, with a 3.98 FIP, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 3.00 K/BB.
Jordan Montgomery gave up two runs on three hits and a walk over six innings on Friday against the Blue Jays. He struck out five. The left-hander tossed only 54 of 93 pitches for strikes (58% strike rate) but bore down when he needed to, and Montgomery got a chance to relax after the Yankees erupted for an eight-run fifth inning. He’s now fired off five straight quality starts. Montgomery maintains a 2.72 ERA and a 3.54 FIP, with a 0.95 WHIP, and a 5.06 K/BB through 72.2 innings on the season. He relies primarily on a primarily on a whiffy 93 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action, an 82 mph changeup that has slight cut action, and a hard 80 mph 12-6 curveball, while also mixing in a 92 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action, and an 88 mph worm-killer cutter. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-3), Manuel Margot (6-16, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Francisco Mejia (2-5, HR, RBI, BB), Taylor Walls (1-2, BB)