After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wildcard Series, as well as one last workout at Tropicana Field on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for Petco Park in San Diego, where they will face the division-rival New York Yankees in the best of five American League Division Series, starting Monday. The Yankees are coming off a series sweep against Cleveland.
The brief set against the Blue Jays exemplified Tampa Bay’s season. In the first game the Rays pitching staff — led by Blake Snell — limited Toronto to just one run, while the offense took advantage of a wild pitch for the first run of the contest before Manuel Margot hit his first career postseason home run in the bottom of the seventh. Then in game number two, Mike Zunino and Hunter Renfroe used the long ball to plate six runs in the second inning, as the Rays outpaced the Jays, 8-2. All told, Snell and Tyler Glasnow combined for 16 of the pitching staff’s total 26 punchouts across the two ball games.
The Yankees did as they are wont to do in their iteration of the Wildcard series: mash their way to victory against Cleveland while performing to a .653 SLG and a 1.062 OPS across 93 plate appearances, including 11 extra-base hits. But they also did something they’re accustomed to, strike out 24.7% of the time. You can expect the Rays hurlers to exploit that latent whiffiness this week. I know, I know … the Rays also have a lot of swing-and-miss in them. However — and as Brian Anderson regularly said throughout the season — because the Yankees are so dependent upon the long ball, they can be pitched to. The 22 combined runs against Cleveland, arguably, had more to do with a pitching staff that couldn’t keep the Evil Empire in the yard. In the regular season, Tampa Bay proved they can beat you with the long ball, they can beat you by playing small ball, and they can beat you on the mound.
It was another contentious season battle between a pair of rivals that have had a penchant for heated ball games extending all the way back to Spring Training 2008. This season, all the chirping and ill feelings toward one another resulted in the infamous 101 mph pitch at Mike Brosseau’s head which spawned the fabled Tampa Bay 98ers stable.
98ers Rays’ centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier summed things up well on Friday, saying,
With all the history that we’ve had the last couple years, it is what it is. I’ve said it many times: they don’t like us, we don’t like them, and it’s going to continue to stay that way. It’s going to be a very fun, energetic, exciting (series). And I know each team is going to want to try to put it to the opposition. I know that for a fact. So it’s going to be two great teams playing against each other. I know our guys are really excited, we’re ready to go. So I’m very confident. And we plan on having the same thoughts once we get out west and expecting to win that series.
— Kevin Kiermaier
New York’s entitled corps of players attempted to use fear and intimidation against Tampa Bay this season and, well … that strategy clearly was not a winning one. The Rays were neither fearful of, nor intimidated by, the Yankees in 2020. The division champs went 8-2 against the fourth-place seed who scuffled to a 4-6 record across the final 10 games of the season. What’s more, the Rays put up a +13 run differential against the Yanks in 2020, limited them to 13 total home runs, a .691 OPS, and a .117 batting average with runners in scoring position. Moreso, New York averaged 3.4 runs per game while Tampa Bay totaled 4.7 RPG in their meetings.
Because of all this, expect a tense and compelling series that will probably go all five games.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash has committed to throwing Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-4, 4.05 ERA). Aaron Boone will counter with Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA), Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 5.11 ERA). I will update this piece when any changes are announced.
Blake Snell matched the franchise postseason record for the most strikeouts in a start over his 5-2/3 innings of work. Across the first five frames, the southpaw allowed just a two-out walk to Randal Grichuk the first inning and a one-out free pass to Teoscar Hernandez in the fifth that was erased on a double-play ground ball off the bat of Jonathan Villar. Snell struck out eight over that stretch.
Yet, Alejandro Kirk led off the sixth inning by lining a fastball to right for the first hit off Snell. Then number nine hitter Danny Jansen followed fly-ball out to right during a nine-pitch at-bat. Cavan Biggio struck out which ended up being the last batter Snell would face. He threw 82 pitches (48 strikes, 59% strike rate, 38% SwStr%) during his outing. Snell’s exit had more to do with an offense that struggled to put runs on the board, than anything having to do with the hurler’s efficacy or lack thereof. Had the Rays put more than one run on the board through the front six, Cash likely wouldn’t have turned to the bullpen. But that’s all speculation. Snell is 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts against the Yankees, and 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against them in 2020. Of note, the left-hander limited right-handed hitters to a .733 OPS this season.
Gerrit Cole allowed two runs on six hits across seven innings on Tuesday, in Game 1 of the AL Wildcard round. He struck out 13 and did not issue a walk. Cole outdueled Shane Bieber in a game where everyone expected a pitchers’ duel, lasting seven frames. The Yankees’ ace threw 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) while fanning an impressive number of batters. The right-hander recorded a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 3.89 FIP during the regular season. This season Cole went 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA against the Rays, including a five-inning four-run, eight-hit outing which included a pair of homers. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (9-17, 3 2B, 3 HR), Yandy Díaz (5-15, HR), Manuel Margot (4-16, 2B)
Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and posted six innings of two-run baseball on six hits (including two solo homers) and one walk while striking out eight.
We showed the potential of what we can do on both sides of the ball. Obviously, in Game 1 we had Blake throw an absolute gem and we were able to scrape enough runs to win, and today showed the bats coming alive and Tyler allowing just two and the bullpen keeping it where it was. I think it just solidifies who we are as a team.
— Mike Zunino
After a 1-2-3 first, Glasnow worked around a pair of singles in the top of the second, yet without incurring any damage. Then, staked to a seven-run lead in the third inning, Danny Jansen launched a solo home run off the right-hander that left a dent in the catwalk above the left-field stands. Bo Bichette followed by earning a walk, but Glasnow buckled down and the Jays settled for just a run. In the fifth inning, Jansen blasted another lead-off solo shot yet that is all he would, or the Rays, allow. Glasnow finished his outing having thrown 86 pitches (55 strikes, 64% strike rate, 20% SwStr%). He held Toronto to 0-for-8 with four punchies with runners in scoring position.
It feels great. We had a bunch of confidence going into this. Everyone went out there with no pressure, just kind of loose like we’ve been all year. Especially in that second inning, just to watch the momentum and the adrenaline from the grand slam, it was a pretty special moment.
T
— Tyler Glasnow
Deivi Garcia struck out seven after allowing four runs on seven hits and one walk across 6-2/3 innings two Saturdays ago against the Marlins. The rookie right-hander allowed three runs on four hits during the third inning, but he otherwise did a good job of limiting the Marlins. Garcia finished his rookie campaign with a 4.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 5.5 K/BB over 27-2/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup, a 76 mph curveball, and an 83 mph slider.
Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies two Saturday’s ago and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.
Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.
Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%).
Masahiro Tanaka was knocked around in Game 2 of the American League Wildcard series against Cleveland, allowing six runs on five hits over four innings, while striking out and walking three. Most of the damage was done in the first inning in which five Cleveland hitters reached base and four come around to score. He later allowed the first two batters in the fifth inning to reach base, both of whom would come around to score after he was replaced by a reliever. Tanaka was hit or miss against Tampa Bay this season, allowing two runs or fewer in two outings, while allowing six runs (five earned) in another. Overall, Tanaka is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 21 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (6-21, 2 2B), Mike Brosseau (2-3, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (12-39, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR), Austin Meadows (5-19, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 2B, 2 HR)
Ryan Yarbrough will serve as the primary pitcher for Thursday’s contest against the Yankees and is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. It isn’t yet known whether he will get the start or pitch behind an opener. In his final outing of the regular season, Yarbrough allowed no runs on three hits while striking out four across 3-1/3 innings against the Phillies. The left-hander has been very good even though his record may not reflect that, maintaining a 2.57 ERA and a 1.76 FIP, and a 0.00 HR/9. Over his career against the Yankees, Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in six starts (20 IP).
Jordan Montgomery allowed three runs on six hits across 5-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on September 24. He struck out eight without walking a batter. The southpaw threw 88 pitches (60 strikes, 68% strike rate) in a solid outing, although he got outpitched by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Montgomery finished the regular season on a roll, posting a 4.02 ERA and an impressive 8 K/BB over his final three starts and 15-2/3 innings. The left-hander lasted all of 2/3 of an inning in his lone start against Tampa Bay this season, as he allowed four runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk on 39 pitches. All told, Montgomery is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Randy Arozarena (1-1, HR), Michael Brosseau (1-1, HR), Yandy Diaz (1-2), Manuel Margot (1-1, 2B), Austin Meadows (2-2)
Noteworthiness
— The final ALDS roster decisions have been made and outfielder Austin Meadows (oblique strain) has been activated from the Injured List ahead of the series against the Yankees. In order to make room for Meadows, 1B/3B Nate Lowe has been left off the 28-man roster.
— Cash also decided to carry 13 pitchers on the roster, the same as a week ago for the Wildcard series. LHP Shane McClanahan has once again cracked the roster. He was added to the 40-man and the playoff roster for the Wildcard round although he did not pitch. McClanahan’s first appearance would be his MLB debut. He can work multiple innings.
José Alvarado (lat strain) has not been activated, and left-hander Josh Fleming was again left off, suggesting that Blake Snell would pitch in a game five situation, or that the Rays would go with a bullpen game if there is a deciding contest.
— For once, the Rays will actually play prime-time baseball.