After taking two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend in Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Rays shuffled down to the Bronx — the belly of the beast — where they will take on Major League Baseball’s wealthiest whiners, the New York Yankees. The Yankees are coming off a four-game sweep against the Red Sox; their second consecutive sweep.
The Rays enter play five games over .500 with a 97.6% chance of a playoff berth (per FanGraphs) with 37 games left to play.
Though Tampa Bay did not score the trademark two-out runs or drive in runs with runners in scoring position, as they had against Boston, the Rays still found a to outslug Toronto and put two more tallies in the win column. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, the Rays offense — which has been very good over the last week — is going to get even better.
Brandon Lowe has performed at an elite level (209 OPS plus and 1.142 OPS overall). Willy Adames and Austin Meadows also have performed extremely well. However, Meadows is still returning to form after missing three weeks with COVID in summer camp. Ji-Man Choi is still finding his stride and the same could be said for Yoshi Tsutsugo. Yandy Diaz is getting on base, but still hasn’t shown the power he’s capable of and still said over the weekend he feels he can be better. The catchers have been among the bottom three in offense. While it’s not expected they will be elite, performing at league average over the next six weeks compared to other receivers would certainly be a boost.
— Neil Solondz
Over the last 14 days, the Rays have not only matched the Yankees in offensive production but they have also outpaced them in many aspects of the game including OBP (.368 vs .364), SLG (.488 vs .486), OPS (.856 vs .850), ISO (.211 vs .203), and wRC+ (136 vs 132). Whether that level of production is sustainable over the long haul fails to be seen. What should be clear though, Tampa Bay is fully capable of wreaking havoc on opposing pitchers.
It should help Tampa Bay that Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Aaron Judge (as a result, the Yankees alleged, of playing on turf at the Trop) are on the shelf due to the injury bug. Although, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) asserts, maybe not enough to get overconfident.
We know how hungry they’re going to be, so we’ve got to be on our A-game. Make sure we give them everything we’ve got, make sure we can get a couple more (wins) out of there.
— Blake Snell
An improved offense doesn’t mean it will be easy in the Bronx. Even though the Rays have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, winning at Yankee Stadium has been hard for them overall. They are 13-35 in the Bronx over the past five seasons, including 2-8 last season. What’s more, the Yankees are 9-0 at home thus far. Still, Tampa Bay has the opportunity to prove its mettle over the next three games which definitely will be contentious.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 7.04 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale. Aaron Boone will counter with Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31 ERA), Gerrit Cole (4-0, 2.76 ERA), and James Paxton (1-1, 7.04 ERA).
Blake Snell got the start for Tampa Bay, tasked with throwing at least five innings if only to save the beleaguered bullpen. In turn, the left-hander posted in his longest, and most effective, outing of the season. Snell tossed five shutout innings, scattering four hits and walking none while striking out six on 70 pitches (48 strikes, 69% strike rate). He threw 13 of 18 first-pitch strikes, coaxed 14 swings and misses (29% whiff rate), and did not allow a runner beyond second base.
Looking forward to being a starting pitcher again and getting away from the opener role. I felt like Blake Snell. I finally feel healthy.
— Blake Snell
Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs on five hits and two walks and struck out three against Atlanta on Wednesday. The right-hander’s pitch count has slowly but steadily increased — he threw 66 pitches (42 strikes, 64% strike rate) in his four-inning start. Tanaka has a 2.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts across 11-2/3 innings this season. He should be able to throw 70 pitches on Tuesday. Tanaka threw five scoreless innings against Tampa Bay on August 7, allowing just one hit while striking out five. Overall, the 31-year-old is 10-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 19 starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-16, 2 2B), Mike Zunino (6-22, 2 HR)
Tyler Glasnow allowed five earned runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out eight across four innings against the Red Sox on Thursday. Glasnow was staked to 10 runs, but he failed to pitch efficiently enough to qualify for a win. To his credit, he kept the ball in the yard and racked up strikeouts. However, Glasnow allowed five extra-base hits and regularly fell behind batters, running up his pitch count. Glasnow has an incredible 15.9 K/9 across 15-1/3 innings this season, yet that has been overshadowed by a 5.9 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9. He also has yet to complete five innings of work in any of his four outings. Glasnow gave up four runs on five hits and three walks against the Yankees on August 8. He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees.
Gerrit Cole allowed one run on four hits and no walks while striking out eight across seven innings against the Red Sox on Friday. In his first start since a short outing against the Rays, Cole stifled Boston’s offense — his best outing since he signed a monster deal with New York in the offseason. In five starts this season, the right-hander carries a 2.76 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across 29-1/3 innings. The Rays tagged Cole for three runs on six hits and a walk across 4-2/3 innings on August 8. Overall, he is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in five regular-season starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (6-13, 3 2B, HR), Yandy Díaz (3-9, HR), José Martínez (4-11, 2B, HR), Joey Wendle (3-12, 2B)
TBA
James Paxton allowed three runs on six hits and one walk while striking out two across five innings on Friday. Far from dominant, Paxton needed 83 pitches to make it through five frames and yielded three runs. The left-hander has allowed exactly three earned runs in each of his four starts this season, though he lasted a combined four innings in his first two outings as opposed to the 11-1/3 combined innings he has pitched in his last two outings. Paxton was fantastic against Tampa Bay for most of his start on August 9, however, the Rays dinged him up toward the end of his outing, tagging him for three runs on four hits including two home runs. Overall, Paxton is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.
Noteworthiness
— Charlie Morton is expected to throw another bullpen today and could rejoin the rotation during the upcoming homestand.
— Oliver Drake (bicep tendinitis) also is expected to resume playing catch after being shut down for a week.
— Aroldis Chapman (COVID-19) has been activated from the Injured List. He pitched the ninth inning of yesterday’s 6-3 win over the Red Sox.