After splitting a short two-game series against Red Sox, following a 5-0 loss in the finale on Wednesday, the Tampa Bay Rays unwelcome the New York Yankees into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field on Friday for a four-game set, which includes a doubleheader on Saturday. The Yankees are coming off an awkwardly scheduled series split against the Phillies.
Just when it appeared the Rays had put their troubles behind them, the Red Sox exited the Trop having handed Tampa Bay its sixth loss in seven tries. And while Ryan Yarbrough cruised through the first few innings of Wednesday’s finale — pounding the strike zone to the tune of a 74% strike rate — Boston tagged the lefty for five runs. Juxtapose that with Martín Pérez — the southpaw that couldn’t find the strike zone even if he walked the ball into Christian Vazquez’s glove (48 of 91 strikes, 53% strike rate) — who blanked Tampa Bay across five innings of work. Let that sink in. Baseball is weird.
Simply put, the Rays have not played well, although Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) gave reflective pause and reason for hope yesterday, writing:
That’s not to excuse the 5-and-7 record or the poor play. Certainly, the club has not played well to this point in any phase. To play poorly and still be 5-and-7 is fortunate. Probably of greater concern would be if the team was 5-and-7 and playing well. Hopefully, a day off allows this group to catch its breath and start playing the game it’s capable of.
Last year when the Rays bounced back from that 5-and-8 run, they went 20-and-8 down the stretch. There are still 48 games left this year, and the core of that talented group, albeit under unique circumstances, is still in place. Plus playoffs are expanded. Despite the tough stretch, the Rays are a half-game behind Baltimore and Toronto.
— Neil Solondz
For their part, the Yankees have looked like the best team in baseball thus far. They have the best record in the American League and they won eight of their first nine games, due in part to their slugging ways — New York has hit 24 homers in the first 12 games of the season. In addition, New York is already multiple games ahead of any other division rival in the standings, so it would appear they are primed to blow the division title race wide open within the first few weeks of the season.
As the saying goes, good pitching defeats good hitting, and it will be incumbent on the Rays pitching staff to do just that this weekend. Meanwhile, the team has gotten a bit luckier at the plate; their .270 BABIP (including 10 point increase from the series vs. Baltimore up to now) speaks to that. However, a 19.6 point difference between the two team’s wRAA (weighted runs above average) speaks to the fact that Tampa Bay has been largely ineffective this season, especially compared to a team that hasn’t.
Opposing pitchers are well aware of the Rays’ tendency to hunt fastballs and expand on offspeed pitches, which results in a lot of weak contact. José Martínez, Hunter Renfroe, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Mike Zunino, and Kevin Kiermaier have made hard contact less than half the time — the team’s overall hard-hit rate is under 41% — so expect Masahiro Tanaka, Gerrit Cole, and James Paxton to follow the same playbook this weekend unless the Rays show they are relying on a different and effective approach at the plate. If Kevin Cash has to plug different players into the lineup, so be it.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash will throw Blake Snell (0-0, 5.40 ERA), a pitcher to be named before one of Saturday’s contests, Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 3.12 ERA), and Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.52 ERA) this weekend. Aaron Boone will Counter with Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 3.38 ERA), a pitcher to be named before one of Saturday’s contests, Gerrit Cole (3-0, 2.54 ERA), and James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA).
Blake Snell got the start on Friday in Baltimore and was very good until he grooved a pair of hittable fastballs over the plate. The lefty allowed three runs on four hits over three-plus innings while striking out four on 53 pitches (37 strikes, 70% strike rate). Snell appeared to be in complete control for three scoreless frames, throwing 14-of-14 first-pitch strikes, yet three consecutive extra-base hits (Renato Nunez double and homers by Anthony Santander and Pedro Severino in the fourth inning) brought Snell’s night to an abrupt end.
Following the ball game, Snell beat himself up over the pitch sequencing that led to the two homers. Yet, there were more than a few things in which the lefty was content.
Overall, first-pitch strikes I’m happy with. No walks, I’m happy with. The way I threw the ball, happy with. The way my arm feels, I’m happy with.
— Blake Snell
Snell’s velocity also increased from 94.3 last Sunday to 95.6 last night. He was dominant at times against the O’s, retiring nine in a row following a first-inning double by Hanser Alberto.
Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and one walk across 2-2/3 innings on Saturday against Boston. He struck out three. The veteran right-hander wasn’t especially sharp Saturday, but it was a solid performance given that he missed most of Summer Camp after being hit in the head by a line drive during a live batting practice session. Tanaka will continue ramping up toward his traditional workload, so he should be able to reach around 60 pitches on Friday. Tanaka is always tough on the Rays due to his repertoire which boasts a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 85 mph splitter with slight arm-side fade, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider. He is 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-14, 2 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (9-34, 2B, 3B, HR), Joey Wendle (3-11, 2B), Mike Zunino (6-21, 2 2B)
Tyler Glasnow allowed two earned runs on three hits and three walks with five strikeouts across 4-2/3 on Saturday. Glasnow still has some work to do on his control, however, the right-hander’s 7.6 feet of average extension from the rubber to the plate is tops in the big-leagues, and his four-pitch arsenal — including a blazing upper 90’s four-seamer — makes life difficult on opposing hitters. Glasnow struggled Saturday with location, although he offered a glimpse of how dominant he can be by punching out nine and allowing just one earned run on a solo shot against Atlanta in his first start of the season. Glasnow is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in two career starts against New York.
Gerrit Cole allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out four across six innings Monday against the Phillies. There was a lengthy rain delay after Cole had finished six innings, and he did not get sent out for the seventh. The right-hander threw 91 pitches and 58 for strikes (64% strike rate), although didn’t have his best command in this one. Cole relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball and an 89 mph slider, while also mixing in an 83 mph curveball. He is 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in four regular-season starts against the Rays, although we probably shouldn’t overlook what he did against them in the 2019 postseason. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (4-10, 2B), Yandy Díaz (2-6), José Martínez (3-8, 2B), Joey Wendle (3-10).
TBA
TBA
Charlie Morton got the start for the Rays and allowed just one earned run on five hits and no walks while punching out five across 5-2/3 innings. The right-hander threw 65 of 93 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate) and coaxed 14 swings and misses (22% whiff rate). Morton held Boston’s lineup in check, with the only major damage coming on a solo homer by Mitch Moreland. Most importantly, Morton’s velocity ticked up, as his fastball sat between 93 and 94 miles per hour for much of his start — an increase of one to two mph from his previous two outings — while hitting 95 mph on a few occasions. Morton was able to lower his ERA to 5.52 (4.09 FIP) across 14-2/3 total innings this season. His 7:1 K:BB suggests even better results are on the way.
James Paxton allowed five runs (three earned) on seven hits and struck out four across three innings on Sunday. The southpaw labored through his second start of the season, needing 62 pitches (45 strikes, 73% strike rate) to complete the three innings. He’s surrendered eight runs (six earned) across two short starts this season. While Paxton has just walked one batter, he continues to deal with a drop in velocity — he hovered around 91 mph with his fastball Sunday (down 4.4 mph from last season). He relies primarily on a 92 mph sinker and a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, while also mixing in a hard 79 mph knuckle curveball, an 85 mph cutter with heavy sink, and an 81 mpg changeup that dives down out of the zone. He is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Yandy Diaz (3-6), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5)
Noteworthiness
— RHP Yonny Chirinos has been placed on the 10-day Injured List with right tricep inflammation retroactive to Monday, August 3. Trevor Richards, who was on the Opening Day roster, has been recalled from Port Charlotte.
Chirinos was expected to start Saturday and made two starts, throwing 68 pitches in one start (4 IP) and 72 in the next (4-2/3 IP). As Solondz notes, velocity on all of Chirinos’ pitches was quite similar in 2020 to what it was in 2019. Chirinos did have trouble throwing his splitter in his last start.
Rays manager Kevin Cash said Chirinos felt much much better Friday and hopefully will miss just one start.
— Jose Alvarado has been placed on the paternity list and the Rays selected LHP Sean Gilmartin from the alternate training site to take his spot on the roster. To make room on the 40-man roster, outfielder Manuel Margot was reinstated from the bereavement list then placed on the COVID-19 related Injured List while he undergoes required intake testing. Margot was initially placed on the bereavement list team due to his father’s passing this week.
Cash said Alvarado should be back Saturday. In addition, if all goes well, Margot could be put back on the roster by Sunday — when the Rays are slated to face a left-hander. In the meantime, Gilmartin — husband of professional asshole Kayleigh McEnany — can provide length since he is built up to four innings or 60 pitches.