After a 4-2 homestand, including a three-game sweep of the Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for Minneapolis, where they will start a three-game series against the Twins on Friday. The Twins dropped two of three against the Yankees.
At 34-23 on the season, the Rays enter play a season-high 11 games over .500. They are 6-4 across the last 10 games and 9-6 over the last 15 contests. Meanwhile, the Twins enter play 33-26 on the season. They are 4-6 across the last 10 games and 6-9 over the last 15 contests.
The Rays moved back into second place in the AL East with the three-game sweep at the Trop. The Twins have been negatively impacted by their recent spate of play. They are holding on to a three-game lead in the AL Central.
As a team, Tampa Bay is slashing .232 BA/.297 OBP/.376 SLG/.673 OPS and putting up a 100 wRC+. Good, but not great. They draw walks at a 7.9% clip (9.7% over the last seven days) and strike out, and the offense has continued to marginally get better — over the last seven days they slashed .233 BA/.304 OBP/.383 SLG/.687 OPS with a 104 wRC+. They will run when the opportunity presents itself and have the potential to put a hurting on the ball…that is, when they’re hitting consistently. Tampa Bay is fourth in baseball in ERA (3.20) and third in WHIP (1.11). Manuel Margot leads the team with a .313 batting average, while Ji-Man Choi has 29 RBI and a .851 OPS.
Minnesota is slashing .251 BA/.324 OBP/.410 SLG/.734 OPS with a 114 wRC+ overall, although they have vastly outperformed those numbers over the last week, hitting .308 BA/.356 OBP/.589 SLG/.945 OPS with a 170 wRC+. Gulp. They take their walks and strike out a bunch, yet they can incur damage when they put the ball in play.
As JT Morgan (DRaysBay) writes about the Twins,
The Twins have gotten positive offensive production from most of their lineup, and Buxton has built upon his breakout wtih a .231/.315/.563 line and 149 wRC+. He leads the team with 15 homers.
Luis Arraez (161 wRC+) has been a great contact hitter whose season line resembles Yandy Diaz. He walks a lot while having a very low strikeout rate and ISO.
The Twins made a huge splash signing Carlos Correa this past winter. Outside of missing time with an injury he has done everything they could’ve hoped with a .286/.356/.429 line and 130 wRC+.
Trevor Larnach (129 wRC+), Max Kepler (123 wRC+), Gio Urshela (114 wRC+), Jorge Polanco (110 wRC+), and Gary Sanchez (100 wRC+) have provided plenty of support. It’s a respectable offense.
— JT Morgan
The Rays dropped two of three against the Twins when they met previously in St. Pete and were outscored 19-10.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Drew Rasmussen (5-2, 3.02 ERA), Shane Baz (last season 2-0, 2.03 ERA), and Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 1.62 ERA). Rocco Baldelli will counter with Devin Smeltzer (2-0, 1.93 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Saturday’s contest, and Cole Sands (0-2, 8.49 ERA).
Drew Rasmussen hurled seven scoreless innings against the White Sox on Saturday. He allowed three hits and a walk while striking out two. Rasmussen didn’t have his swing-and-miss stuff working in the outing — he collected just six swinging strikes and only two punchouts — but he didn’t allow any extra-base hits and kept Chicago off the scoreboard for seven innings. Rasmussen had his worst start of the season in his previous outing, so this was a nice bounce-back effort for him. He maintains a 3.02 ERA and a 3.48 FIP, with a 3.29 K/BB, and a 1.02 WHIP across 53.2 innings of work.
Devin Smeltzer allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over four innings on Sunday against the Blue Jays. He struck out one. Smeltzer got off to a poor start when George Springer launched a leadoff home run against him. The 26-year-old southpaw then kept Toronto off the board until Alejandro Kirk’s solo homer in the fourth inning. Sunday’s outing was the shortest of the season for Smeltzer and it was the first time he’d allowed a home run much less two. He now sports a 1.93 ERA, but a 3.79 FIP, with a 2.17 K/BB, and a 0.93 WHIP through five starts (28 innings). Smeltzer relies primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball that has natural sinking action, an 82 mph changeup that dives down and out of the zone, and a 76 mph curveball that has slight glove-side movement, while also mixing in an 83 mph slider that has short glove-side cut.
Shane Baz will make his season debut Saturday after wrapping up a four-start rehab assignment at Triple-A Durham. In his most recent outing Sunday, Baz struck out 10 over 4.1 innings while building up to 79 pitches, so he shouldn’t face any significant restrictions with his workload in his first start with the Rays. In his first taste of the big leagues late last season, Baz produced a 2.03 ERA and a 4.07 FIP, with a 0.68 WHIP and 6.00 K/BB across 13.1 innings (three starts).
TBA
Jeffrey Springs got the start on Tuesday and struck out five in six shutout innings while allowing six hits and two walks on 92 pitches (65% strike rate). While Springs allowed baserunners in each inning, he managed to pitch around trouble and hold the Cardinals scoreless. He was also relatively efficient, averaging 15 pitches per inning. Springs has excelled since moving into a starting role, compiling a 1.62 ERA and 3.25 ERA, with a 4.50 K/BB, and a 0.92 WHIP across 44.1 innings of work.
Cole Sands allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks over 3.2 innings against the Yankees. He struck out three. Sands struggled in his second start of the season, allowing four runs and throwing 89 pitches in just 3.2 innings. In four appearances this season, Sands maintains an unwieldy 8.49 ERA and a 6.92 FIP, with a 1.97 WHIP, and a 2.17 K/BB across 11.2 innings of work. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball with heavy sinking action and an 80 mph slider that has exceptional depth, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone. The Rays tagged Sands for two runs on three hits across two innings of work in the previous series between the two. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-1, 2B, RBI), Manuel Margot (1-1, RBI)