After FINALLY winning more than one game against the Seattle Mariners, and consequently the series, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome Rocco Baldelli’s Twins into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Friday. The Twins are coming off a series sweep of the Detroit Tigers.
At 11-8 on the season, the Rays have matched their high-water mark for the season at three games above .500, as they look to continue their winning ways. Minnesota enters play with the same record after firing off seven consecutive wins.
Even though the Rays have been in an offensive funk of sorts, they have found ways to win. Case in point: the previous two series against the Red Sox and Mariners. Tampa Bay held Boston to a total of eight runs in three games and limited the high-powered ballclub from Seattle to only 11 runs — three total runs in the final two games of the set. Tampa Bay maintains an overall 3.21 ERA and 3.54 FIP, and a minuscule 1.96 ERA and 2.97 FIP over the last seven days. Zooming in a bit, the bullpen has been incredible for Kevin Cash the last week-plus, performing to a 1.50 ERA over that stretch, although that figure is belied by a 4.00 FIP.
The reigning AL Rookie of the Year, Randy Arozarena, has yet to find his groove, collecting only four RBI accompanied by a subpar .526 OPS. Still, Harold Ramirez (.646 wOBA the last seven days), Kevin Kiermaier (.506 wOBA the last seven days), Yandy Diaz (.492 wOBA the last seven days), and Taylor Walls (.353 wOBA the last seven days) are getting toasty, allowing the team to mitigate the lack of production from the likes of Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Arozarena, and Mike Zunino. Tampa Bay is currently averaging 4.21 runs per game, landing them 13th in baseball.
The Twins have rebounded nicely from their poor start. Their current winning streak includes sweeps against division foes — the White Sox and Tigers. They struggled last season but appear to have a stellar lineup capable of winning the AL Central.
Yet, Minnesota is slashing a combined .219 BA/.310 OBP/.368 SLG/.678 OPS/.309 wOBA on the season, and averaging 3.78 runs per game, ranking them 20th in the big leagues. Much like the Rays, Minnesota’s pitching staff has been great, performing to a 3.23 team ERA and 3.85 team FIP, and a ridiculous combined 1.64 ERA and 3.01 FIP over the last seven days.
The Rays split the season series with the Twins in 2021 with a +1 run differential. Expect another close series — one that’s dominated by great pitching.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Corey Kluber (0-1, 3.68 ERA), Shane McClanahan (1-1, 2.45 ERA), and Josh Fleming (2-2, 4.50 ERA) in some capacity. Rocco Baldelli will counter with Dylan Bundy (3-0, 0.59 ERA), former Ray Chris Archer (0-0, 3.18 ERA), and Chris Paddack (0-2, 3.68 ERA).
Corey Kluber allowed four runs on 11 hits in five innings on Friday against Boston. He walked a batter and struck out three. Kluber gave up a pair of runs in both the first and third innings, although the damage could have been greater had he not induced two double-play ground balls. After allowing only two runs and seven hits combined in his first two starts, the veteran right-hander put together his least effective start of the season, allowing 12 of 25 batters to reach safely. Kluber is 9-7 against the Twins over with a 3.40 ERA in 23 career starts.
Dylan Bundy allowed four hits over five scoreless innings against the White Sox on Saturday. He struck out four without walking a batter. The Twins handed Bundy a 7-0 lead by the fourth inning, although the former Oriole didn’t need that much support as he cruised through 79 pitches (59 strikes, 75% strike rate). He has had a resurgent 2022 season and put his rough campaign a season ago behind him, posting a 0.59 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 12:1 K/BB across three starts and 15.1 innings to begin his tenure in Minnesota. Superlatives aside, Bundy is 5-6 with a 6.19 ERA in 14 outings (13 starts) against Tampa Bay. The soft tosser relies primarily on an 89 mph four-seam fastball that has some added backspin and an 80 mph slider that has exceptional depth, while also mixing in an 82 mph splitter, a 73 mph curveball with sharp downward bite, and a 90 mph sinker with little arm-side run and little sinking action. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (2-7, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Yandy Diaz (1-1, 2 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (6-18, 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, BB), Brett Phillips (3-8, 2B, HR, 2 BB)
Shane McClanahan allowed two earned runs on six hits and no walks while striking out seven across seven innings to earn on Sunday against Boston. McClanahan was touched up early in the game, as he allowed three singles and both of his earned runs in the first inning. He, however, went on to retire eight consecutive hitters — four of which came via the punchout. Perhaps most notably, McClanahan needed only 86 pitches to work seven frames to record his longest outing of the season. Through four starts this season, he maintains a 2.45 ERA with a 6.2 K/BB across 22 frames. McClanahan is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in one start against the Twins.
Chris Archer allowed two runs on three hits and three walks over three innings on Sunday against the White Sox. He struck out two. His short stint was by design, as Baldelli planned to limit him to 60 pitches to keep him healthy. It was Archer’s shortest start of the season after going at least four innings in each of his first two turns. Tim Anderson took him deep on the very first pitch of the game, and he later allowed an RBI single to Andrew Vaughn in the third. After missing all of 2020 due to injury and making just six appearances last season, the former Ray owns a 3.18 ERA with a 2.0 K/BB this season. Not that you need an introduction to Archer, but he relies primarily on an 89 mph slider and a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also rarely throwing a hard 83 mph curveball with 12-6 movement. Key Matchup: Harold Ramirez (2-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI)
Josh Fleming allowed seven unearned runs on four hits, a walk, and a hit batsman in two innings of work on Tuesday against Seattle. For the second time this season, Fleming pitched behind opener Matt Wisler. The left-hander entered the game in the third inning and retired all three batters via groundouts. Yet, the wheels fell off in the fourth inning as Fleming was BABIP’d to death, while Tampa Bay committed costly errors on consecutive plays, leading to seven unearned runs. All told, he faced 11 batters and needed 44 pitches to complete the frame. In all fairness, his .400 BABIP over the last seven days speaks volumes about the bad luck he has faced of late, but he also has allowed 18 hits in 12 innings.
Chris Paddack pitched 5.2 innings on Tuesday against Detroit and surrendered one run on five hits and a walk while striking out six. Paddack had his best outing of the season, with his only blemish coming on a two-out double by Javier Baez in the bottom of the sixth inning, scoring Derek Hill and ending the starter’s day on the mound. His six strikeouts were a season-high. The right-hander’s season numbers now sit at a 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 14.2 innings. Paddack relies primarily on his whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball, an 83 mph changeup with slight arm-side fade, and a 77 mph worm-killer curveball.