After sweeping the New York Yankees in the Bronx, the Tampa Bay Rays will continue their second road trip of the season when they start a three-game set against the Royals in Kansas City on Monday. The AL Central-leading Royals took three of four from the Blue Jays this weekend past.
The Rays enter Kansas City riding a huge wave of momentum after sinking the Yankees to 5-10 on the season and relegating them to the cellar of the American League following the three-game sweep. They now have won 18 of the last 21 games against New York, including 2020 postseason play.
Meanwhile, the Royals are 7-1 in their last eight home games, where they average 5.67 runs per game, and 5-1 in their last six games overall. However, while the Royals have been better than the Rays offensively, they have performed well below average of late, posting a 66 wRC+ and a -14.2 wRAA over the last week-and-a-half. What’s more, Tampa Bay has a better BaseRuns record than Kansas City.
The wildcard for both teams will be pitching. If Rays hurlers can perform as they had in New York, where they limited the Yankees to seven runs total, they will have a fantastic chance against a team that has been fairly comparable to the Rays thus far in 2021. The same can be said for Kansas City. However, the opposite is also true for both teams.
Whatever the case, they will need all the driving power they can muster against a surprisingly good Kansas City team — at least as it relates to wins and losses — in a stadium that had been a house of horrors for Tampa Bay until 2017. Since then, however, Tampa Bay has gone 7-2 at Kauffman Stadium.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Josh Fleming (0-1, 1.80 ERA), Rich “Dick Mountain” Hill (1-0, 7.53 ERA), and Michael Wacha (1-1, 4.20 ERA). Mike Matheny will counter with Danny Duffy (2-0, 0.75 ERA), Brad Keller (1-1, 9.58 ERA), and Jakob Junis (1-0, 1.50 ERA).
Josh Fleming allowed one earned run on four hits and two walks while striking out two across five innings against the Rangers on Wednesday. He threw 55 of 84 pitches for strikes (65% strike rate). Fleming allowed only a solo home run to Nate Lowe, however, he didn’t receive any run support. The left-hander pitched well based on his ability to coax weakly hit grounders, with nine of his 15 outs coming via the groundout.
Danny Duffy tossed six innings against the Angels on Tuesday and allowed one run on eight hits and one walk while striking out six. Duffy wasn’t quite as impressive as in his first start of the season when he surrendered just two hits across six frames, however, he maneuvered around a steady stream of baserunners to escape with another win. Still, the left-hander hung around for six innings and 100 pitches for his second consecutive quality start. Duffy has allowed only a single run across 12 innings so far thus far — a fifth-inning home run off the bat of Shohei Ohtani. He relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 83 mph slider, an 84 mph changeup, a 92 mph sinker, and a 76 mph curveball. Duffy is 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-5, RBI), Brandon Lowe (1-2)
Rich Hill allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two across 4-1/3 innings on Thursday. Hill surrendered a pair of home runs to Nick Solak and Charlie Culberson, who caused the bulk of his damage. The veteran southpaw was also less effective in striking out batters Thursday, with only two punchouts. Hill has now given up four runs in each of his three starts. Hill is 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 career outings (three starts) against the Royals, yet 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in six career outings (one start) at Kauffman Stadium.
Brad Keller allowed one run on four hits and a walk while striking out five over 5-2/3 innings against the Angels. Keller needed 94 pitches (62 strikes, 66% strike rate) to get through his outing. The only mark against him came on a sixth-inning double off the bat of Jared Walsh that plated Mike Trout. The 25-year-old took a good step forward after allowing 10 runs across his first two starts. Keller still carries a 9.58 ERA, 2.42 WHIP, and 1.33 K/BB across 10-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball, an 85 mph slider, and a 93 mph sinker.
Michael Wacha was fantastic across six frames on Friday, allowing just two base runners on a walk and a hit. The right-hander didn’t allow a runner to get past first and struck out nine (all swinging) batters — matching the highest total of his career — on 93 pitches (60 strikes, 65% strike rate). He saw an uptick in his fastball velocity, as his heater touched 96 mph, and he coaxed 18 swings and misses (19% SwStr%) on eight four-seam fastballs, five cutters, four changeups, and one curveball. Wacha was able to lower his ERA from 7.00 to 4.20 on the season, while he now has collected 20 strikeouts across three appearances (15 innings, two starts) to start the season. Wacha is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals.
Jake Junis allowed two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out six across five innings on Thursday against the Blue Jays. The right-hander put together another strong outing after struggling through his first four big-league campaigns. Across four appearances (two starts), Junis has a 5.00 K/BB to accompany a 1.50 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He relies primarily on an 80 mph slider and a 91 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 91 mph sinker. Junis is 4-1 with a 2.28 ERA across five career outings (four starts) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-8, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-9, 2B), Brandon Lowe (4-7, 2 RBI), Joey Wendle (2-2, 2B, RBI)