After taking two out of three from the Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays look to cap the 11-game road trip with a series win in Cincinnati, when they start a three-game series on Friday. The Reds are coming off a split in a doubleheader against the Pirates on Thursday.
At 45-37 on the season, the Rays enter play eight games over .500 and in second place in the AL East.
The Rays rebounded from a four-game slump by winning the final three games in Toronto last weekend, followed by a series win against the Red Sox this week. They limited Boston to just nine runs over the life of the set. Tampa Bay’s offense has been very productive over the last week, slashing .289 BA/.367 OBP/.466 SLG/.833 OPS while performing to a 146 wRC+. Even though the Rays are averaging 4.11 runs per game, ranking them 23rd overall, they averaged close to six runs per game over the last seven days.
As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) wrote, “Yandy Diaz enters Friday’s with a season-long 11-game hit streak, while Wander Franco now has a hit in nine consecutive games. The Rays also are expected to activate Yu Chang. Chang was a waiver claim for the Pirates. Vidal Brujan was optioned to Durham after Wednesday’s game to make room.”
The Reds continue their long homestand. They are 2-4 through the first six games including a series loss against the Mets, and the doubleheader split against the Pirates. The offense has cooled down significantly after only managing eight runs in the series against New York, and seven runs against Pittsburgh. And while they are averaging 4.25 runs per game, landing them 20th overall, Cincinnati slashed an ice-cold .189 BA/.270 OBP/.285 SLG/.555 OPS with a 54 wRC+ over the last week, while averaging just three runs per game.
The marquee matchup in the series opener aside, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has not been good by in large, performing to a 5.40 ERA and 4.72 FIP overall (5.34 ERA and 4.66 FIP from the starting rotation, and 5.49 ERA and 4.80 FIP from the bullpen). Compare that to Tampa Bay’s pitching staff which has performed to an overall 3.29 ERA and 3.84 FIP (3.23 ERA and 3.50 FIP from the starters, and 3.35 ERA and 4.21 FIP from the ‘pen). That being said, the Rays have a fantastic opportunity to win this series at the very least.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.74 ERA), Drew Rasmussen (5-3, 3.30 ERA), and Shane Baz (1-1, 2.92 ERA). David Bell will counter with Luis Castillo (3-4, 3.09 ERA), Hunter Greene (3-10, 6.01 ERA), and Nick Lodolo (1-2, 4.19 ERA).
Shane McClanahan was dominant in his start against Toronto, posting seven innings of one-run baseball on three scattered hits and a walk on 94 pitches (68 strikes, 72% strike rate). He struck out 10 in his second consecutive double-digit strikeout start and fourth of the season. McClanahan now maintains a 1.74 ERA after tossing his 10th consecutive quality start, and 11th in a row where he’s given up two runs or fewer. He enters the series with a 1.74 ERA and a 2.40 FIP, with a 0.81 WHIP, and a 7.82 K/BB across 98.1 innings on the season.
Luis Castillo gave up one earned run on six hits and a walk while striking out six across seven innings on Sunday against Atlanta. Castillo continued his solid 2022 campaign with another consistent performance that saw him throw more than 100 pitches for the sixth consecutive game. Castillo now has a 3.00 K/BB over 64 innings to go along with a 3.09 ERA and 3.23 FIP on the season. He relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action and arm-side run, a firm 88 mph changeup that dives down and out of the zone, a 97 mph sinker that has an obvious tail and natural sinking action, and an 87 mph 12-6 slider that has some two-plane movement. Key Matchup: Francisco Mejia (3-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI)
Drew Rasmussen allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and two walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out two. In his return from the Injured List, Rasmussen did fairly well to keep the Blue Jays’ high-powered offense at bay. However, he issued two walks in the fifth inning and manager Kevin Cash would not let the right-hander face Bo Bichette a third time. With that, Rasmussen fell short of qualifying for a win, but he should be available to add to his workload gradually in his subsequent starts after throwing 68 pitches (41 strikes, 60% strike rate) Saturday. He now maintains a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP, with a 2.83 K/BB, and a 1.16 WHIP across 62.2 innings on the season.
Hunter Greene coughed up six runs on seven hits and a walk over 5.1 innings. He struck out five. Greene has been finding the plate more often lately, but his command lags behind his control and he got taken deep by Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor — the third time in his last four turns Greene has served up multiple home runs. The flame-thrower hasn’t walked more than two batters in any of his last seven outings, posting an impressive 4.67 K/BB through 35 innings over that stretch, but that comes with a 6.17 ERA and 1.8 HR/9. He enters the series with a 6.01 ERA and a 5.67 FIP, with a 1.35 WHIP, and a 2.97 K/BB across 79.1 innings on the season. He relies primarily on a blazing fast 99 mph four-seam fastball that has slight arm-side run, and an 88 mph slider, while also mixing in a hard 90 mph changeup that has a lot of backspin.
Shane Baz allowed one run on seven hits and two walks over six innings on Sunday in Toronto, striking out seven. The only run allowed came during the third inning on Vladimir Guerrero’s RBI single. After coughing up five runs in his season debut, Baz has allowed three total runs with a 4.33 K/BB over his last 22.1 frames. He now maintains a 2.92 ERA and 3.10 FIP, with a 1.14 WHIP and 28 punchouts through five outings.
Nick Lodolo allowed three hits and three walks over 4.2 scoreless innings while striking out eight on Tuesday against the Mets. The rookie left-hander didn’t last long enough to qualify for a win in his return from the Injured List, getting the hook after 89 pitches (51 strikes, 57% strike rate), the point was moot because the game’s only run didn’t cross the plate until the ninth inning. It was still an impressive showing for Lodolo as he dueled Max Scherzer to a stalemate while he was on the bump. Lodolo maintains a 4.19 ERA and 4.03 FIP, with a 1.50 WHIP, and 3.38 K/BB through 19.1 innings on the season. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball that has heavy sinking action and obvious tail, and an 83 mph worm-killer curveball that has slight glove-side movement, while also mixing in an 88 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone and has slight arm-side movement, and a 94 mph sinker.
Noteworthiness
— Appearing in his first rehab game, Brandon Lowe was expected to DH the entire game on Thursday. However, he was taken out as a precaution after one plate appearance, after being hit on the helmet by a pitch from Steven Matz, the rehabbing Cardinals’ hurler.
— Pete Fairbanks is also rehabbing with Durham and has made two appearances for the Bulls.