Out at the plate. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After splitting a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays continue their seven-game homestand on Tuesday, when they welcome the Baltimore Orioles into the Trop for a three-game set. The Orioles split a series against the Red Sox … but, who hasn’t?

The Rays enter play eight games over .500 and with a 99.1% chance of a playoff berth according to FanGraphs.

Aside from a slew of pitching injuries, a lot of things have changed for Tampa Bay since the Orioles swept them from August 1-3 in Baltimore. The rattled off 14 wins in 19 games and overtook first place in the AL East. Meanwhile, in that same stretch of play, the Orioles have posted a .450 winning percentage, although something is lurking under the covers.

When you look at the Orioles over the last 14 days, one thing becomes abundantly clear: they’re not an awful team … at least offensively speaking. Hell, even though the Rays have outperformed Baltimore over that stretch of play, they are still playing 19% better than average as it relates to wRC+. In other words, the Orioles are a bad team because of pitching, not hitting.

Given that the Rays have been pretty mediocre from a pitching point of view — thanks in part to a plague of injuries that have ravaged the pitching staff — Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, José Martínez, and the rest of the hitters need to be prepared to put some runs on the board. After all, if the Orioles perform as they had a few weeks back, things could again go in their favor.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 6.00 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Wednesday’s ball game (Charlie Morton?), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 4.45 ERA). Brandon Hyde will counter with Tommy Milone (1-3, 4.13 ERA), Asher Wojciechowski (1-3, 4.84 ERA), and John Means (0-2, 10.13 ERA).

Tyler Glasnow got the start on Wednesday and tossed 5-2/3 innings, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks while punching out eight. Down by a pair in the third, New York answered when Luke Voit hit a two-out solo home run into the second deck in right in the third inning. Then in the sixth, Aaron Hicks lined a 1-0 pitch down the right-field line for a triple to lead off the sixth before Voit drew a free pass on a full count curveball. With runners on the corners, Gio Urshela hit a sacrifice fly to right, tying the game at two. Yet Glasnow struck out Mike Ford for the second out of the inning before he gave way to Ryan Thompson. All told, Glasnow threw 51 of 88 pitches for strikes (58% strike rate) while coaxing nine swinging strikes (18% whiff rate). While his strike and whiff rates weren’t eye-popping, the results speak for themselves.

Tommy Milone allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings against Toronto on Wednesday. He had seven strikeouts and zero walks. Randal Grichuk did all the damage against Milone on a solo homer during the fourth inning and two-run shot during the sixth accounting for all his earned runs. The left-hander maintains a 4.13 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 25:3 K:BB across 24 innings. Milone relies primarily on an 87 mph four-seam fastball and a whiffy 80 mph changeup with some natural sink, while also mixing in an 80 mph slider and a 76 mph 12-6 curveball. He is 3-4 with a 6.18 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key matchups: Willy Adames (5-7, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (6-9, 2B, HR), José Martínez (3-7), Mike Zunino (6-15, 3 HR)

TBA

Asher Wojciechowski allowed three runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out four across 3-2/3 innings of work. Wojciechowski was coming off his first win of the season in his previous start, but he was unable to replicate his success against the Red Sox. The right-hander allowed a season-high seven hits and needed 88 pitches to retire just 11 batters. Wojciechowski’s ERA rose to 4.84 with the rough outing while his WHIP spiked to 1.34. He relies primarily on a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball, a 79 mph worm-killer slider, and an 87 mph cutter with heavy sink, while also mixing in a firm 85 mph changeup with slight cut action and a lot of backspin. He is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.

Ryan Yarbrough allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 6-1/3 innings on Frida. Yarbrough’s previous start was cut short due to rain, but he matched his longest start of the season Friday by going 6-1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the four runs he gave up in the second inning forced him to settle for his third straight no-decision. To his credit, Yarbrough locked it in from that point on and was fairly effective outside of the second inning. He now carries a 4.45 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 30-1/3 innings (six starts).

John Means allowed three runs on four hits — including two homers —while striking out two batters over three innings against the Red Sox on Friday. It’s been a rough first couple of outings for Means, just after he posted a 3.60 ERA across 155 innings in 2019. The southpaw gave up a solo shot to Xander Bogaerts to open up the second inning and followed that up by gifting J.D. Martinez a two-run shot to center in the third. Means has now given up 12 runs in 10-2/3 innings this season and isn’t notching many strikeouts to help his case. Means relies primarily on a 5 MPH four-seam fastball and an 85 mph changeup, while also mixing in an 87 mph slider and an 81 mph curveball. He is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Not available at the moment.

Leave a comment