After a successful 4-3 road trip, including a series win against the Texas Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will start a two-game Interleague series against the Nationals on Tuesday. Washington dropped two of three to Philadelphia over the weekend.
The Rays enter the series 15 games over .500 and in first place in the American League East.
Tampa Bay’s offensive production fell off against the Rangers, as they went 4-for-20 with runners in scoring position. Yet, they still scored six two-out runs and averaged 4.67 runs per game. I’d reckon you can get away with a lag in production when you only allow six total runs (just one run in 18 innings between Saturday and Sunday).
The Rays enter the series with an MLB leading 38 wins despite playing 42 games against teams at or above .500. Their 24 wins against teams at or above .500 are the most in baseball. For context, the Astros are second with 19.
The Nationals enter the series with a 24-32 record and are just 11-17 on the road. The Nationals enter the series coming off two straight losses to the Philadelphia Phillies. They are 25th in all of baseball, averaging 3.9 runs per game, yet sixth in the league with a .247 team batting average. Trea Turner boasts a team-leading .311 batting average, with 10 home runs, 29 RBI, and 13 swiped bags. Juan Soto and Jordan Zimmerman round out an otherwise tepid and uninspiring corps of batters.
The Rays dropped 3-of-4 against the Nationals last season, having been outscored 16-12.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash will roll out Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.69 ERA) and Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.11 ERA) the next two days. Friend of the Rays David Martinez will counter with Jon Lester (0-2, 4.37 ERA) and Patrick Corbin (3-5, 6.28 ERA).
Tyler Glasnow allowed three earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out eight across seven innings on Tuesday against the Yankees. Glasnow battled wildness (and a bloody thumb) in the third inning, as he walked two and threw a wild pitch to force in two runs. However, he otherwise turned in another strong turn, coaxing 15 swinging strikes on 100 total pitches (15% SwStr). Through 12 starts on the season, Glasnow has completed seven or more innings on five occasions while striking out eight or more in nine outings. Overall, he boasts a 2.69 ERA with 106 strikeouts across 77 frames. Glasnow is 1-0 with a 7.53 ERA in five career outings (two starts) against the Nationals. He, however, has not faced them since 2018.
Jon Lester allowed one run on five hits and two walks over 5-2/3 innings against Atlanta on Wednesday. He struck out three. The only blemish on his ledger was a second-inning solo shot by Dansby Swanson, although Lester got pulled just short of his second quality start of the season after tossing 87 pitches (53 strikes, 61% strike rate) because he was working on only three days rest. Lester enters the series with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 2.08 K/BB through 35 innings on the season. The veteran relies primarily on an 87 mph cutter with strong cutting action and an 89 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, while also mixing in an 82 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone and has slight cutting action, an 88 mph sinker, and a 73 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement. He is 13-11 with a 4.47 ERA in 30 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (5-10), Austin Meadows (3-6, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI), Francisco Mejía (1-3, 2B, RBI), Mike Zunino (3-5, BB)
Shane McClanahan allowed four earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out six across 3-1/3 innings on Wednesday against the Yankees. McClanahan ran into early trouble when he surrendered a first-inning two-run homer to the fourth batter of the game. He ran into trouble again two innings later, and he ultimately left the game with one out in the fourth inning with the bases loaded. McClanahan had shown the ability to work deeper into games prior to this start after he recorded at least 15 outs in each of his last three turns. McClanahan has a 4.11 ERA with 38 strikeouts and nine walks 30-2/3 innings into his big-league career.
Patrick Corbin allowed four runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four across 5-1/3 innings against Atlanta on Thursday. Corbin has now surrendered at least three runs in each of his last four outings. He began Thursday’s contest by tossing five scoreless frames before he relinquished four runs to begin the sixth inning. The left-hander now boasts a 6.28 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP across 57-1/3 innings on the season (11 starts). He relies primarily on an 80 mph slider with two-plane movement, a 92 mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, and a whiffy 92 mph sinker, while also mixing in an 81 mph changeup with cut action. Corbin has never faced the Rays. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (7-24, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI), Austin Meadows (3-6, 2B, 2 RBI)
Noteworthiness
— Per MLB.com, “Through Sunday, the Rays have the third-highest run differential in baseball at +75, behind only the White Sox (+85) and Dodgers (+83). Individually, Austin Meadows is on a nice run. He leads the Majors with 39 RBIs since the start of play on May 2, and he’s on a 10-game hitting streak, which has produced 15 hits in 38 at-bats with five homers and 19 RBIs.” Note: there is not an ice cube’s chance in hell that I’d willingly write “RBI’s” of my own volition.