After sweeping the Oakland Athletics — hey, there’s a first for everything — the Tampa Bay Rays continue their 10-game west coast road trip on Thursday when they start a four-game series against the Mariners in Seattle. The Mariners are coming off a series sweep at the hands of the Astros.
The Rays enter play a season-high five games over .500 at 15-10 on the season and are 6-3 during their current stretch of 16 games without an off-day.
Tampa Bay put up 19 runs in the series against Athletics thanks to a pair of high-scoring wins in the first two games and a Rays-way 3-0 win in the finale, on Thursday.
Tampa Bay has turned a corner offensively speaking. Over the past seven days, the Rays have performed to a 120 wRC+ and a 3.5 wRAA, although those figures are down marginally from the series against the Twins to now. Part of their success has been luck-based — their overall BABIP jumped 23 points between the last two series. Yet, their SLG, and because of it their ISO, have also gone up. In general, they make hard contact resulting in balls finally missing gloves. Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Austin Meadows trade, has been in the thick of things; six of the nine balls he has put into play have been hard hit (95+ mph), which includes a 107.5 mph base hit against the Twins, which is the hardest-hit ball of his young career.
Yandy Diaz (231 wRC+ over the last seven days) and Mike Zunino (224 wRC+ over the last seven days) have led the charge over the last week, but that’s not to belittle the contributions of Taylor Walls, Manuel Margot, Harold Ramirez, and Brett Phillips. Credit where it’s due, Brandon Lowe and Randy Arozarena have started to get toasty, combining for 11 hits over the last week including six doubles, a triple, three RBI, and seven runs.
On the contrary, Seattle is heading in the opposite direction. After starting the season 10-6, the Mariners have gone an ice-cold 2-7 over a nine-game stretch, which includes two losses at the Trop. In the most recent series against Houston, the M’s were shut out twice and scored just two runs overall. Over the last week, they’ve averaged just over two runs per game, have struck out 25% of the time, and put up an 82 wRC+ — none of which is terribly inspiring. Even so, if there’s one thing that’s forever embedded in our collective conscious, it’s that we shouldn’t take the Mariners for granted. After all, they are essentially the same team that went 6-1 against Tampa Bay last season (4-0 in Seattle) and missed the postseason by a game.
Pitching Probables
Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will turn to Shane McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA), Josh Fleming (2-3, 6.32 ERA) in some capacity, Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 3.13 ERA), and Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 19.12 ERA) in some capacity. Scott Servais will counter with Robbie Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA), Logan Gilbert (4-0, 0.64 ERA), Marco Gonzales (1-3, 4.05 ERA), and Chris Flexen (1-4, 3.14 ERA).
Shane McClanahan fired off five-plus dominant innings save for two misplaced pitches. In the first inning, Kyle Garlick sent a 109 mph missile to centerfield for an early lead. Then, in the sixth, Garlick struck again, drilling a 2-0 curveball over the wall in left for a 3-1 lead. Even so, the left-hander struck out a career-high 11 batters and scattered just four hits and two walks on 90 pitches (57 strikes, 63% strike rate), while also coaxing 15 whiffs. McClanahan now has at least 13 swings and misses in all five of his starts to begin 2022 — he had that many in 11 of his 25 starts last season.
Robbie Ray allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks across five innings against the Marlins on Saturday. He recorded eight strikeouts. Ray had his swing-and-miss stuff in season-best form Saturday, yet he also tied a season-high with four walks. Ray had mostly breezed through his first four frames before the Marlins got to him in the fifth with a pair of RBI singles and by drawing a free pass with the bases loaded. Ray was very good against Tampa Bay last season, going 2-2 with a 2.33 ERA across six starts (38.2 innings). He relies primarily on a whiffy 93 mph four-seam fastball and a hard 87 mph slider that forces a lot of grounders — both of which gave the Rays fits last season. Key Matchups: Yandy Diaz (6-19, 4 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Wander Franco (2-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-6), Harold Ramirez (2-8, RBI, BB)
Josh Fleming surrendered six runs (five earned) on five hits across 3.2 innings on Sunday against the Twins. He had one strikeout and three walks. The left-hander threw 53 of his 77 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) and delivered first-pitch strikes to 16 of the 19 hitters he faced, but he was unable to take advantage of that success early in the count. Fleming issued only three walks over his first four outings of the season, but he doubled that total Sunday. It’s been tough going early in the campaign with a 6.32 ERA (but a 4.03 FIP), and a 1.85 WHIP across 15.2 innings. Fleming gave up seven unearned runs on four hits and a walk in his last turn against the Mariners.
Logan Gilbert allowed one run on three hits and four walks over 5.2 innings against the Marlins on Sunday. He struck out five. Even without his best control, Gilbert managed to hang zeros on the scoreboard en route to his fourth win in five turns. The right-hander has allowed a total of 18 hits in 28 innings this season, and only two of those hits have gone for home runs. He seems to be in the midst of a breakout with a 0.64 ERA early on, which, however, is belied by a 3.04 FIP and a .225 BABIP. Regression will happen sooner or later, perhaps Friday. He blanked Tampa Bay across 5.2 innings a couple of weeks back, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out seven. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-8, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI), Brandon Lowe (2-6, 2B), Manuel Margot (2-5, HR, RBI), Taylor Walls (1-2), Mike Zunino (1-4, HR, 2 RBI)
Drew Rasmussen got the start against Oakland on Monday and tossed five innings, allowing one run on one hit and one walk while striking out three. Rasmussen induced only six swinging strikes, and the Athletics wore him down with 22 foul balls. Even so, he yielded just a single and a walk and hung around just long enough to pick up his second consecutive win. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any appearance this season, helping him register a solid 3.13 ERA and 3.17 FIP, with a 0.87 WHIP and a 4.22 K/BB through five starts. Rasmussen was fantastic against the Mariners, allowing no runs on two scattered hits while striking out nine across six innings.
Marco Gonzales allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings on Monday against the Astros. Gonzales was hit on his left wrist by a comebacker in his previous turn and wasn’t certain to be available Monday, although he ended up navigating through six frames. He allowed plenty of traffic on the bases although he managed to notch his second quality start, with all three runs against him coming by way of the long ball. The southpaw has struggled this season, although his ERA stands at a respectable 4.05 since eight of the 17 runs scored against him have been unearned. The Rays literally knocked Gonzales out of his last start at the Trop after just 11 pitches and 0.1 of an inning thanks to a hard-hit comebacker. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-5), Brandon Lowe (1-3, 2B), Manuel Margot (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Harold Ramirez (1-1, RB), Mike Zunino (1-3, 2B, RBI)
Ryan Yarbrough allowed five runs on six hits and three walks with two strikeouts across 2.1 innings on Tuesday against the Athletics. Yarbrough got off to a rough start in his season debut by permitting six baserunners and all five runs in the first. He didn’t get much better thereafter, surrendering two baserunners in the second and third, though none came around to score. Over his career, Yarbrough is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one start against the Mariners.
Chris Flexen allowed one run on two hits and three walks with two strikeouts in five innings against Houston on Tuesday. Flexen pitched well except for one mistake — a fourth-inning fastball that Yordan Alvarez took over the centerfield wall — and was saddled with the loss as Seattle was held scoreless for the second consecutive game. The 27-year-old has lost four of his five starts this season despite a solid 3.10 ERA and 4.18 FIP, with a 1.14 WHIP and a 1.89 K/BB across 29.0 innings. This season, Flexen is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in one start (6.2 innings) against the Rays. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-2, HR, RBI, BB), Yandy Diaz (3-6), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2, 3B, BB), Manuel Margot (3-7, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Isaac Paredes (1-2, 3B), Brett Phillips (2-3, 2 RBI), Harold Ramirez (1-2)
Noteworthiness
— Catcher Francisco Mejia, sidelined because of a positive COVID test, played the last two days at Extended Spring Training in Port Charlotte, and is expected to rejoin the Rays in Seattle.