After dropping two of three to the American League Central-leading Chicago White Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays will continue their westward trek on Thursday, when they start a four-game series against the Mariners in Seattle. The Mariners took two of three from the Twins over the weekend.
The Rays enter play 17-games over .500 and in first place in the American League East, ahead of the Red Sox by one game. The Mariners are running in third place in the American League West behind the Astros.
Both teams are fairly evenly paired, especially over the last 14 days. Actually, Seattle has marginally outperformed the Rays by three percent as it relates to wRC+.
Austin Meadows is the clear offensive powerhouse on Tampa Bay’s roster, having hit 15 home runs and driven in 50 runs. And while Brandon Lowe has 12 homers and 30 runs driven in, he is slashing a light .197 BA/.307 OBP/.391 SLG.698 OPS line.
Seattle is led by Mitch Haniger who boasts 16 home runs and 40 runs driven in, while Kyle Seager is second with 13 homers and 40 RBI. Haniger is listed as questionable for parts of the series. They are also missing Sam Haggerty, Kyle Lewis, and Evan White.
Offense aside, the pitching staffs differ drastically. While Seattle’s starters are pretty good — pitching to a combined 3.43 ERA and a 3.69 FIP — it’s night and day when you compare the two bullpens. Tampa Bay is vastly better than Seattle to the tune of a 3.00 ERA and a 3.57 FIP (0.74 ERA and a 1.88 FIP over the last 14 days) vs. a 4.31 ERA and a 3.73 FIP (4.94 ERA and a 3.77 FIP over the last 14 days). If the Rays can keep it close against the Mariners’ starters, or even eke out some leads, they should be able to break things open when Scott Servais turns to the ‘pen.
The Rays went 4-2 against the Mariners in 2019, and 3-0 against them in Seattle. A caveat, however, Tampa Bay was outscored 29-25. If past is precedent, expect four tight contests.
Pitching Probables
Kevin Cash will turn to Rich Hill (5-2, 3.38), Michael Wacha (1-1, 4.54 ERA), Josh Fleming (6-4, 3.20 ERA), and Shane McClanahan (2-2, 4.42 ERA). Scott Servais will counter with Justin Dunn (1-3, 3.91 ERA), Yusei Kikuchi (3-3, 3.67 ERA), Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.13 ERA), and Marco Gonzales (1-4, 5.44 ERA)
Rich Hill allowed four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out five across 4-2/3 innings on Saturday against Baltimore. The veteran southpaw came into the contest having yielded two runs or fewer in eight consecutive outings, but that streak came to an end when Austin Wynns hit a grand slam in the fifth inning. Hill was actually quite good in the front four innings, allowing just two hits while collecting all his punchies, yet the wheels fell off in the fifth when he issued a pair of walks and gave up a single prior to the homer. It was his shortest since May 2. Even so, Hill maintains a solid 3.38 ERA on the season.
Justin Dunn allowed five runs on nine hits and two walks across three innings against Cleveland on Friday, fanning three. Dunn had a rough outing in his return to the mound after missing almost two weeks with right shoulder inflammation. The 25-year-old had been pitching well before the injury, although couldn’t even make it to the fourth inning. Dunn has worked to a 3.91 ERA and a 4.84 FIP across 48-1/3 innings, with a 1.35 WHIP and a 1.65 K/BB. He relies primarily on a 94 mph four-seam fastball and an 80 mph curveball with little depth and sweeping glove-side movement, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider with exceptional depth, and short glove-side cut.
Michael Wacha will join the rotation in the interim as a replacement for Tyler Glasnow (elbow), who is likely in line for a long-term absence after he was diagnosed Tuesday with a partial UCL tear and flexor strain. Wacha previously opened the season as a member of the Rays’ rotation, but he transitioned into more of a multi-inning relief role upon returning from a hamstring injury in late May. Through 11 outings (seven starts) on the season, the right-hander has compiled a 4.54 ERA and a 4.52 FIP, with a 1.21 WHIP and a1.85 K/BB across 39-2/3 innings.
Yusei Kikuchi tossed seven scoreless innings on Saturday against Cleveland, allowing three hits and three walks while fanning six. Kikuchi delivered one of his best performances of the season despite the fact he dealt with a knee problem throughout the week. Kikuchi maintains a 3.67 ERA and a 4.40 FIP on the season, with a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.29 K/BB across 73-2/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph cutter that has some natural sink and has strong cutting action, a whiffy 96 mph four-seam fastball, and an 83 mph slider with exceptional depth, while also mixing in an 87 mph worm-killer changeup that has slight cut action and has some natural sink to it.
Josh Fleming allowed just one walk and struck out three across four scoreless innings on Sunday against Baltimore. Michael Wacha opened the game and allowed a run in two innings before Fleming took over on the mound. Tampa Bay took over the lead on Fleming’s watch, and he was able to pick up his sixth win of the season. The southpaw has a 3.20 ERA and a 4.17 FIP on the season, with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.54 K/BB across 56-1/3 innings this season.
Logan Gilbert tossed 6-2/3 innings of one-run ball on Sunday against Cleveland, allowing four hits and a walk while fanning six. Gilbert began his big-league career with two consecutive losses but has bounced back since, surrendering two runs or fewer in each of his last four appearances, going 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in that span. Gilbert maintains a 4.13 ERA and a 3.66 FIP on the season, with a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.68 K/BB across 28-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a 95 mph four-seam fastball with arm-side movement and an 81 mph slider with two-plane action, while also mixing in a 74 mph curveball with sharp downward bite and primarily 12-6 movement and a 79 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone.
Shane McClanahan got the start for Tampa Bay and allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and one walk while striking out four across five innings. It was a bounce-back performance for the southpaw, as the only major damage against McClanahan came on a solo homer to Adam Engel in the fifth inning. He did work with runners on base throughout his start, although he held Chicago to just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position. In all fairness, his final line was skewed by four hits on the infield. It was a positive step in the right direction for McClanahan, who managed to complete five innings after working to a combined 6-1/3 frames across his last two starts. The left-handed rookie lowered his ERA to 4.42 on the season with 46 punchouts across 38-2/3 innings.
Marco Gonzales allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings against the Twins on Monday. Gonzales gave up an early run in the first inning thanks to three singles, and he was tagged for two more runs on a pair of solo homers before his day was over. He hasn’t been able to top five innings in three outings since returning from the IL and has been a major disappointment after a stellar 2020 season, as he maintains a 5.44 ERA and a 5.73 FIP with a 2.4 K/BB over 41-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on his 88 mph four-seam Fastball and a 75 mph curveball that has exceptional bite, while also mixing in an 80 mph changeup that has slight arm-side fade, an 85 mph cutter with surprisingly little cutting action, and an 88 mph sinker that has little sinking action. Gonzales is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Kevin Kiermaier (2-5), Austin Meadows (3-6, HR, 2 RBI)
Noteworthiness
— Collin McHugh’s rapid COVID test came back negative, and according to Kevin Cash, the hurler is feeling marginally better. The Rays optioned Chris Mazza back to Triple-A Durham, and McHugh has been reinstated from the COVID related IL.
— The Rays have acquired INF Mike Ford from the Yankees for a player to be named later and cash considerations. He will report to Triple-A Durham. To make room on the 40-man roster for Ford, RHP Tyler Glasnow has been moved to the 60-day IL.
— Rays Metrics compared Ford to Ji-Man Choi, and there are similarities between the two: