After salvaging a win in the series finale of the series against the Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field on Monday, where they will begin a three-game set. Cleveland has lost six straight, including a four-game series loss to the Astros.
The Rays enter play 12-games over .500 and 4.5 games behind the division-leading Red Sox. Meanwhile, Cleveland enters play 3.5 games back of the Astros for the final AL Wildcard spot.
Tampa Bay was one of the hottest teams in baseball in the month of May but they came back down to earth in June, falling behind Boston in the AL East. Simply put, the Rays cannot afford the gap to open much wider. They certainly aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but still have found a way to rank ninth in runs per game. The Rays have also seen a steady improvement in their offense over the last two weeks and now maintain a 100 wRC+ (league average) and a -0.3 wRAA (just under league average). Compare that to Cleveland who has performed to an 82 wRC+ and a -6.1 wRAA over the same stretch of play.
Cleveland will be without Jordan Luplow and Josh Naylor — at least on Monday — while José Ramírez and Eddie Rosario are both questionable after getting beaten up over the weekend.
While the Rays have struggled on the road recently, they went 4-2 on their last homestand, and have won 16 of the last 20 games at the Trop. Cleveland has been hit hard by injuries to their starting rotation. That said, Cleveland has been solid on the road this season, going 21-20.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Rich Hill (6-3, 3.70 ERA), Michael Wacha (1-2, 5.26 ERA), and Josh Fleming (6-4, 3.39 ERA) assuming he is activated from the 10-Day Injured List. Terry Francona will counter with Logan Allen (1-5, 8.38 ERA), J.C. Mejia (1-3, 6.18 ERA), and Sam Hentges (1-3, 8.22 ERA).
Rich Hill got the start on Tuesday against the Nationals and gave up four runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out two across six innings. Hill surrendered three homers over the first two frames and appeared destined for a short outing, although he settled down and was able to keep the Nationals off the board for the next four innings. As it turns, when the left-hander entered the dugout after the second inning, pitching coach Kyle Snyder alerted him that he was tipping his pitches when he brought his arms over his head.
Thankfully, we caught it. We were able to make an adjustment. Just — it’s one of those things, it’s tough to swallow. … I think it’s just frustrating. I expect better, expect more out of myself. I wear my emotions on my sleeve. So I’m not going to apologize for that. I really don’t care. Putting us in that position sucks.
— Rich Hill
Hill has scuffled across his past four outings having allowed 13 runs with a 1.7 K/BB. On the season, the veteran maintains a 3.70 ERA and a 4.56 FIP, with a 1.11 WHIP and a 2.67 K/BB across 82-2/3 innings.
It bears mentioning that Hill hasn’t thrown this many innings in over three seasons, and some ill effects may be manifesting. Of note, his fastball velocity has been in a steady decline of late:
Logan Allen allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and two walks while striking out three across 3.2 innings on Wednesday against Detroit. Cleveland gave Allen almost no support, as they mustered just three hits for the game. Even so, the left-hander continues to struggle, performing to an 8.38 ERA and an 8.69 FIP across six starts, with a 1.66 WHIP and a 1.67 K/BB in 19.1 innings of work. Allen relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action and an 82 mph sweeping slider, while also mixing in an 82 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, and a 77 mph curveball that boasts sharp downward bite and has slight glove-side movement.
Michael Wacha was tagged for five runs on seven hits and two walks while tossing three relief innings on Wednesday against the Nationals. He struck out five. Wacha entered in the bottom of the fourth trailing 6-5, and Washington didn’t take long to extend its lead following his entrance. Solo homers in the fourth and fifth innings put Washington up by three runs before Wacha coughed up three more runs in the sixth. Wacha now holds a 5.26 ERA and a 4.71 FIP across 14 outings (nine starts) on the season, with a 1.40 WHIP and a 2.75 K/BB over 51.1 innings of work.
J.C. Mejia allowed six runs on five hits — including two home runs — and two walks while fanning three across four innings on Thursday against the Astros. Mejia was taken deep by Yordan Alvarez in the fourth inning and also gave up a grand slam to Jose Altuve in the fifth before being chased. He was coming off a strong start last week against Minnesota, having allowed just one run across six innings, yet the wheels came off here, and he’s now given up at least four runs in three of his last five appearances. The right-hander now owns a 6.18 ERA and a 4.20 FIP across nine outings (six starts), with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.78 K/BB across 27.2 innings. Mejia relies primarily on a 93 mph sinker that has heavy sinking action, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider that has short glove-side cut and has some two-plane movement, a 94 mph four-seam fastball that has heavy sinking action, and an 88 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it.
Josh Fleming was placed on the 10-day Injured List after a 3.2 IP outing against the Angels. In that outing, Fleming allowed one unearned run on two hits and a walk while striking out two. Through 0 outings (0 starts), he’s posted a 3.39 ERA and a 4.14 FIP, with a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.50 K/BB across 66.1 innings.
Sam Hentges allowed six runs on six hits and two walks with three strikeouts across 2.2 innings on Friday against Houston. For the second straight outing, a half-dozen runs were charged to Hentges line, and the southpaw continues to struggle in a starting role this year. Through 14 outings (seven starts), he’s posted an 8.22 ERA and a 5.11 FIP, with a 2.06 WHIP and a 1.86 K/BB across 38.1 innings. Hentges relies primarily on a 95 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action, an 81 mph hard curveball, and a hard 86 mph slider, while also mixing in a 93 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action.
Noteworthiness
— Tuesday’s game has been postponed due to the potential for inclement weather from Tropical Storm Elsa.
Heads up: single-game tickets for Wednesday will be honored for the doubleheader, no exchange necessary. Fans who purchased tickets for Tuesday’s game through team website or MLB Ballpark app will receive credit, good for any remaining home game in 2021, including the doubleheader.
The Austin Meadows bobblehead giveaway that was scheduled for Tuesday, has now been rescheduled to July 20 against Baltimore. Thanks a lot, Elsa.