Headgear or neck gaiter … it’s all somewhat similar for Joey Wendle. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After collecting one last series sweep this past weekend — the seventh on the season — the Tampa Bay Rays welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they are set to play in the best of three Wildcard series, starting Tuesday. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Orioles over the weekend.

Tampa Bay enters its second consecutive postseason 20 games over .500 and with the best record in the American League at 40-20 (which extrapolates to a 108-54 record across a 162 game season). Meanwhile, Toronto clinched the final AL playoff spot and finished the season eight games behind the Rays in the loss column (equivalent to a 22 game gap in a 162 game season).

Despite how unfair you may think that this season’s playoff bracket might be — and let’s be honest, it is ridiculous that the best team in the American League will be facing the number eight seed in a Wildcard series — that’s neither here nor now. Both teams will play at most three games to determine who moves on to southern California and who goes home. Yet, it is still better than the one-and-done first round of the playoffs from years past. At any rate, blink and either team could be one game shy of elimination.

The Rays are the favored team because of their pitching staff — they’ll have the advantage in all three potential games of this series when you take starters and relievers into account. What’s more, the Rays offense is marginally better — Tampa Bay managed a 109 wRC+ in 2020 while the Blue Jays performed to a 108 wRC+ — and expect Kevin Cash to deploy more hitters in advantageous positions than Charlie Montoyo, who has less roster flexibility. Put another way, as Ben Clemens (FanGraphs) writes, “Toronto has a puncher’s chance, and they have offensive stars, but those stars will have to succeed through difficult initial conditions while Tampa’s hitters face their preferred type of pitching.”

Yandy Díaz, one of Tampa Bay’s most important right-handed bats, looks ready to return for the playoffs, as does Ji-Man Choi. That gives Kevin Cash the ability to play Díaz and Mike Brosseau on the infield corners, with an all right-handed outfield of Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe against Matt Shoemaker and Robbie Ray, both of whom are better against southpaw hitters. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, both Diaz and Choi tend to stabilize the team’s free-swinging ways.

Diaz had a .428 on-base percentage before a hamstring injury sidelined him, but he also changes the look of the Tampa Bay lineup. When he was gone, the walks for the team went down (11.5% walk for the team pre-injury, 9.6% after) and the strikeouts went up by a significant margin (24.2% pre-Diaz injury, 31.1% after). Ji-Man Choi’s ability to work at-bats also could help significantly, and would take pressure off several players who moved up in the lineup in their absence.

— Neil Solondz

This series will likely come down to which team out pitches the other. The Rays boast the fourth-lowest ERA when you adjust for their home stadium, thanks in part to the core starters who are fully stretched out. Toronto, on the other hand, is 18th in park-adjusted ERA. And yes, that is including starters Matt Shoemaker and  Hyun-jin Ryu, both of whom gave Tampa Bay’s hitters fits this season.

After the starters, Cash will turn things over to The Stable, his highest-leverage relievers — Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, John Curtiss, and Diego Castillo — who combined for a 1.17 ERA and 2.95 FIP this season. They struck out 32.85% of the batters they faced. Anderson in particular performed to a 0.55 ERA and a 1.35 FIP on the season while striking out a disgusting 44.8% of his opponents and walking just three total batters across 16-1/3 innings of work. Bear in mind too, Cash can turn to Ryan Yarbrough, Ryan Sherriff, Ryan Thompson, or Aaron Loup as he sees fit.

Still, Toronto finished the season playing its best baseball, winning four consecutive ball-games against the Yankees and Orioles before dropping the season finale. Even so, they also went 5-5 over the final 10 games of the season. For their part, the Rays also finished the season strong, winning four in a row, and eight of their last 10.

Be that as it may, the Blue Jays were tough competitors against the Rays this season. Eight of the 10 games between the two clubs were decided by just one or two runs. And even though Tampa Bay won 60% of the matchups, they went 4-3 against the Jays at the Trop and were outscored by four runs in total.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA), and Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA). Charlie Montoyo will counter with Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 4.71 ERA), Hyun-jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA), and Taijuan Walker (4-3, 2.70 ERA).

Blake Snell gave up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out nine against the Mets last Tuesday. After keeping the ball in the yard in both of his prior two starts, Snell couldn’t keep the streak going Tuesday, as both Robinson Cano and Yonder Alonso took him deep for solo shots. That was enough offense to back Seth Lugo, who outdueled Snell by allowing only two runs (one earned) over 6-1/3 innings. Even so, Snell matched his season-high in strikeouts, with the southpaw racking up 22 swinging strikes among his 108 pitches (67 strikes, 62% strike rate, 33% SwStr%). The left-hander allowed two runs across 7-2/3 innings against Toronto this season (two outings) for a 2.35 ERA. Overall, Snell is 4-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 13 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Matt Shoemaker allowed one run on three hits and two walks across three innings on Monday against the Yankees. He struck out one. It was a short start for Shoemaker, as he was only built up to throw a maximum of 60 pitches after being held out since August 21 with a lat strain. He was able to log three innings on 54 pitches, allowing an RBI single to Gio Urshela in the second inning. The finesse right-hander is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts (15 innings) against Tampa Bay this season. Key Matchup: Yandy Díaz (3-4), Brandon Lowe (3-7, HR)

Tyler Glasnow allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Glasnow allowed solo shots to Andres Gimenez and Dominic Smith, but he was otherwise dominant. The right-hander has won three consecutive starts and five of his last six outings. He enters the postseason with a respectable 4.08 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB across 57-1/3 innings this season. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

Hyun-jin Ryu allowed five hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings on Thursday against the Yankees. He struck out four. The veteran left-hander came through with another dazzling effort to clinch a playoff berth for Toronto. Ryu heads into the postseason with a 2.69 ERA and a 4.24 K/BB through 67 innings. Ryu is 0-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season. Key Matchup: Yoshi Tsutsugo (1-4, HR)

Charlie Morton got the start against the Phillies on Saturday and looked dominant from the beginning of his outing, allowing just a walk to Bryce Harper over the first two frames, while striking out four. However, that changed in the third.

Scott Kingery grounded a one-out single to centerfield, then stayed out of an inning-ending double play because he was in motion when Andrew McCutchen hit a grounder to third. Kingery moved up third on a wild pitch before Alec Bohm flicked a single to right, tying the game at one. Harper followed, slashing a ball down the right-field line for a triple/Little League homer. He also crossed the plate when Willy Adames’ relay throw got past Brosseau at third, putting the Phillies up by two.

Kingery struck again in the fifth. The infielder hit a one-out double to left-center before Bohm lined a single to right, moving Kingery up 90 feet. Harper plated a run on a single, his tenth consecutive plate appearance in which he had reached. Morton retired J.T. Realmuto on a groundout to end his outing. All told, Morton was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight on 93 pitches (64 strikes, 69% strike rate, 22% SwStr%). Morton is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.

Taijuan Walker retired all nine batters he faced before giving way to the bullpen on Friday. He struck out four. With an eye on setting up his postseason rotation, Charlie Montoyo pulled Walker after only 42 pitches (28 strikes, 67% strike rate), denying the right-hander a chance at his fifth win of the season. This came after he struck out eight Phillies in his previous start. Since joining the Jays, Walker has posted a stellar 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 2.72 K/BB over 26-1/3 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard 86 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph splitter with a ton of backspin, a 93 mph sinker, and a 75 mph curveball with exceptional bite. Walker is 0-0 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Tampa Bay.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays have announced that Kevan Smith, Ryan Sherriff and Josh Fleming did not make the Wildcard round roster, although they are still in the playoff pool and eligible for future rounds. Additionally, they have have formally announced that Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Díaz have been activated and are on the playoff roster. Shane McClanahan has also been selected and will make his big-league debut in the postseason. Sean Gilmartin has been designated for assignment to make room the on the 40-man roster.


— Let’s Get Wild!

— By the by, Dave and Andy on the radio side will be calling the games for Tampa Bay.

— …Lest I forget

https://twitter.com/TriciaWhitaker/status/1310612027849797632?s=20

— And finally

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