I’d reckon losing a one-run game kind of tastes like this. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)
On the heels of a series loss to the Blue Jays — yes, the sub .500 Blue Jays — the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome another underperforming team to the Trop, when the Kansas City Royals come to town for a four game series, starting Monday.

(Stats: ESPN)
Much like the Rays, the Royals are coming off a series loss. Unlike the Rays, however, the Royals are in a far worse position. Kansas City has struggled to get anything started offensively this season, and if you think Tampa Bay has struggled to plate runs of late, compare that to the Royals, who’ve scored just 38 runs over the last 14 days — playing to a 68 wRC+ and a -15.5 wRAA.

In spite of what their W/L record might suggest, if Tampa Bay’s Pythagorean and BaseRuns expectations speak to anything, it’s that the Rays, essentially, are a plus .500 ball club. Kansas City? Well…the Royals are sub .500 across the board.

I know what you’re saying, “the Royals have owned the Rays over the last few years,” and it’s true, after all they’ve posted a 20-6 record against Tampa Bay since 2013. However, the Rays have a legitimate chance to get back over .500 — and beat the former world champs — this week. Then again, they had a legitimate chance to do the same against Toronto this past weekend, so what do I know?

(Stats: FanGraphs)
Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will throw Blake Snell (0-2, 3.45 ERA, 4.98 FIP), Matt Andriese (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 4.66 FIP), Chris Archer (2-1, 3.57 ERA, 3.19 FIP), and Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 2.88 ERA, 4.64 FIP). Ned Yost will counter with Nathan Karns (1-2, 3.81 ERA, 5.05 FIP), a pitcher to be determined, Jason Hammel (1-3, 5.53 ERA, 4.01 FIP), and Jason Vargas (4-1, 1.19 ERA, 2.16 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell, because his of command issues, cannot break the fifth inning barrier. In five consecutive outings, after hurling 6-2/3 innings in his first start of the season, the southpaw has pitched five innings or fewer. Granted he struck out nine in his five inning start against Miami, however, it still took Snell 109 pitches to get 15 outs. The high strikeout rate suggests he may be starting to put it all together, and when he does opposing batters will need to look out.

Karns was excellent in his last outing, throwing six shutout innings while giving up just one hit and fanning seven. What the former Ray throws should be no surprise to any of you; a 93 mph four-seam fastball, a devastating 83 mph knuckle curveball that generates a lot of swings and misses, and a whiffy 87 mph changeup. He’ll also mix in a 93 mph sinker from time to time. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-3, 2B), Colby Rasmus (2-8, 2B)

Andriese collected the third scoreless start of his career Thursday against the Marlins. He’s pitched past the seventh inning in each of his last two starts, and has thrown 100 pitches or more three times in his last four starts — this after not reaching that plateau in any of his previous 14 starts.

TBA

Archer pitched well against the Blue Jays Friday night, yet came away with a no-decision after having been victimized by Kendrys Morales in the seventh inning. Still, the Rays’ ace was overpowering, notching 11 strikeouts (also notching 13 swinging strikes). Archer ace now has one loss and three no-decisions over his last four trips to the mound in spite of two quality starts and 30 strikeouts over a 25 inning stretch.

Hammel had his best outing of the season against Cleveland on Friday, tossing six innings of one-run ball, while scattering just three hits. It was his first victory as a Royal, ending a six-start skid dating back to September of last season. Reporters have noted that he worked exclusively out of the stretch, ditching the windup in hopes of simplifying his delivery and achieving better results.

It’s something I had experimented with on the side and just committed to it. In the windup, there are a lot of pieces that have to go right, a lot of moving parts and the timing is going to be everything. With the stretch, everything is up and down, two movements up and down and you’re going to the plate.

The former Ray is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA against Tampa Bay over six career starts. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (1-2, HR, RBI), Colby Rasmus (6-19, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Rickie Weeks Jr. (3-8, 2B, BB)

Odorizzi pitched a quality start on Saturday against the Blue Jays, allowing just three hits over seven innings. He completely shut down the Blue Jays while getting plenty of run support on his way to his second win of the season. He’s gone four consecutive starts without allowing more than an earned run, pitching to a 2.88 ERA to boot. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against his former team, the Royals.

Vargas tossed six shutout innings against Cleveland on Saturday, allowing four hits while fanning six in a no-decision. In spite of a 4-5 record in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay, he has held the Rays to a 3.11 ERA and is a tough competitor to say the least. This season he has relied primarily on his 87 mph four-seam fastball and 81 mph circle changeup, while also mixing in a 74 mph knuckle curveball and an 87 mph two-seam fastball/sinker. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (7-23, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Brad Miller (4-8), Rickie Weeks Jr. (2B, HR, 2 RBI)

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