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The New What Next: Rays vs. Twins, Part Two ― A Series Preview

August 25, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Jake Odorizzi winds up during the second inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday, Aug. 23, 2015. (AP Photo/Beck Diefenbach)

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins are both still fringe contenders in the American League Wildcard race, and neither can afford to lose a series. The Rays will try to push their four-game home win streak to five* at the expense of the Twins when they open a three-game series against Minnesota, beginning Tuesday.

In spite of a 62-62 record, Tampa Bay remains within shouting distance of the second Wildcard spot, thanks in part to wins in three of their last four games. The Rays have put up an average of 2.3 runs over the last six games, however, the pitching staff has kept the team in the thick of things with a 3-3 mark in that span.

Both clubs are among four that are within 2-1/2 games of the Rangers for the final playoff spot:

I know that they’re neck-and-neck with us and there’s a lot of teams involved in all of this but we’ve gotta play good baseball regardless of who we’re playing against, Rays manager Kevin Cash told Fox Sports on the importance of facing the Twins.

Minnesota is a game up on Tampa Bay in the overall standings, as they started to slow some of their woes on the road with a four-game sweep in Baltimore over the weekend ― including three straight one-run victories. That pushed Minnesota to 25-37 away from Target Field.

The Rays will throw Nathan Karns (7-5, 3.44), Chris Archer (11-9, 2.77 ERA), and Drew Smyly (1-2, 3.42 ERA) over the next three days.

Karns did not factor in the decision at Houston on Wednesday despite allowing one run and striking out eight in six innings. The righty allowed only one walk in that outing after walking five in 4-2/3 frames at Texas in his previous turn. He is 3-0, with a 2.81 ERA in six starts since All-Star break, and has made an AL-most 18 starts while allowing two runs or fewer, and an MLB-most 10 with three hits or fewer.

Archer was outstanding last Thursday, allowing just one hit and a walk while fanning 11 in a complete game shutout over the Astros. The Rays ace was sharp and efficient as he drew 19 swinging strikes and needed only 98 pitches to complete his start. He previously allowed 12 earned runs over his previous three starts, so it was nice to see him pitch well once again.

Smyly posted 5-2/3 scoreless innings Saturday in a win over Oakland, scattering seven hits and no walks while striking out two. It wasn’t his sharpest outing, but it’s hard to complain about a shutout. This was his second start after returning from the DL, and he looked far better here than he had in his previous outing against Texas.

Minnesota won two of three at home over Tampa Bay from May 15-17, yet the Rays captured seven of the last nine home meetings.

*Six and seven as well, in an ideal world.

Rays and Twins series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Twins offensive numbers over the last 14 days.

Rays and Twins by the numbers.

Ervin Santana (2-4, 5.53 ERA): Santana will make his 10th start since returning from an 80-game steroids suspension. He fell to 0-4 in his last five starts after being touched for four runs in 7-2/3 innings against the Yankees on Wednesday. The righty surrendered a pair of home runs in that outing and has yielded seven blasts in his last five starts. Santana is 6-6 with a 4.98 ERA in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay, with his last one coming in June 2013. Key matchups: John Jaso (8-21, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), James Loney (5-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (6-15, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB), Rene Rivera (1-4, BB), Grady Sizemore (9-28, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB).

Tyler Duffey (2-1, 4.60 ERA): Tampa Bay has never faced Duffey, who was promoted to the bigs at the beginning of August. The 24 year-old righty relies primarily on his 92 mph four seam fastball and 80 mph curve, which he uses to coax an extreme number of fly balls. He also mixes in a 91 mph sinker and an 85 mph whiffy change-up.

Tommy Milone (6-3, 3.69 ERA): Milone was pressed into action in an extra-inning ballgame on Sunday with the Twins already short of rested relievers. He threw a scoreless 12th inning to earn his first career save. The 28 year-old righty has not fared well against the Rays over the last few seasons, posting a 2-2 record and a 6.17 ERA over his last four starts (23-1/3 innings). Key matchup: James Loney (1-3, RBI).

Noteworthiness

― Evan Longoria is 0-12 with five strikeouts in the last three games.

― James Loney is 5-16 off Santana, though the Rays are unsure of whether or not he will be suspended after bumping umpire Paul Nauert during Saturday’s 5-4 victory against the Athletics in which he was ejected. Loney went 0-2 in Sunday’s loss and is in the throes of a 3-24 slump.

― Twins rookie Miguel Sano is hitting .321 with four homers and nine RBI in his last seven games.

This Week in Rays Baseball: August 16th – 23rd

August 24, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

(Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson/USA Today Sports)

Let me just say what everyone is thinking, thank god that 10-game road trip is over! To be fair, the Tampa Bay Rays performed fairly well against the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics…well, better than they had against Texas. They were able to win some games against some pretty good pitchers, and the good guys four of their last seven. That being said, their showing Sunday looked more like the softball team I play on, and less like a team vying for a playoff berth. In the end Tampa Bay couldn’t win its first-ever road sweep of Oakland, although the team was able to take two-of-three from the A’s. After a well needed off-day Monday, the Rays will welcome another fringe contender into the Trop, the Minnesota Twins.

Let’s take look at some of the peaks and valleys from the week past.

The Rays entered the only other citrus themed facility in the bigs on Monday to start a four game set against the Houston Astros. Erasmo Ramirez earned his 10th win of the year, holding Houston’s powerful bats to just two single tallies on six scattered hits, including an opposite field homer to Evan Gattis on a pitch that was well out of the zone. For the life of me, I still cannot understand how Gattis poked that fastball to right-field!

The offense supported Erasmo — and the pitchers that followed — with nine runs of support, while going 6-17 wRISP (.353 BA) and scoring six two-out runs.

However, fortune did not favor the Rays on Tuesday and Wednesday, after they dropped a pair of extra inning contests by a 3-2 margin. The bullpen failed the team in both games, although they walked away from Tuesday’s fiasco with a far worse predicament — Jake McGee became the injury bug’s next victim when the lefty tore the meniscus in his left knee on the second to last pitch of his outing.

McGee, who is expected to miss 6-8 weeks after going under the knife, will likely miss the rest of the regular season. Kevin Cash said they will use several pitchers to take McGee’s late-inning role, including lefty Xavier Cedenno and righties Steve Geltz, Brandon Gomes and Alex Colome. He also said this less than operative situation doesn’t automatically mean Brad Boxberger will become the full-time closer. Rather there could still be situations where Boxberger pitches in the eighth, and one of the others closes out the game.

In dire need of a pick me up, the team closed out the stint in Houston with a big 1-0 shutout of the Astros, culminating in a one-hit/11 strikeout complete game gem by Chris Archer. When all was said and done, the starting rotation held the Astros to just four runs (1.33 ERA), while the offense was able to collect 42 total hits. However, they also went 9-for-40 wRISP (.225 BA), so…

The westward trek continued in Oakland on Friday, when Drew Smyly and Desmond Jennings led Tampa Bay to a 2-1 win. Smyly bounced back from a disappointing start against Texas by scattering seven singles and fanning two. And while his start wasn’t spectacular, he was good enough to keep Oakland at bay. The lefty focused more on pitching to contact, and — playing off the Athletics aggressiveness at the plate — forced a good number of weak poppers and fly balls. More importantly though, his command was much better and he was able to locate all of his pitches.

“It just helps when you can locate all your pitches, Smyly said. In Texas I was pretty much throwing two pitches: fastball, slider. Today I threw some changeups, I threw a lot of curveballs, my slider was good. All in all it felt good out there.”

Up by two runs in the ninth, Boxberger took over and almost allowed another walkoff loss. Instead he eventually settled down to earn his 30th save.

On Saturday, for the first time in 50 previous attempts, Tampa Bay notched its first ninth-inning comeback of the season as the team rallied for two runs late to win 5-4. Logan Forsythe, John Jaso, and Asdrubal Cabrera combined to tag Sonny Gray for three home runs, and the Rays became the first team to do as much off the excellent righty. Previous to that, Gray had given up only two homers in one game. Equally as impressive though, Alex Colome, who was the only reliever used by Cash, entered the game in the eighth inning and retired all six batters he faced (over a two inning spread) on an incredibly efficient 20 pitches. In 11 relief appearances and 17-1/3 innings since the All-Star break, Colome has allowed just one earned run. Only time will tell, but the former starter could be an apt replacement for McGee while he recoups from surgery.

It might be best if we just skip over the series finale.

Source: FanGraphs

Better yet, read FanGraphs’ game recap whilst listening to the Benny Hill theme song.

When all was said and done, it was the fourth game on the trip in which Tampa Bay blew a lead from seventh inning on. In retrospect, perhaps the quote at the bottom of Sunday’s lineup card was prophetic:

Quote of the day on #rays lineup card pic.twitter.com/ytZWCTPIUz

— Roger Mooney (@RMooneyTBO) August 23, 2015

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Jennings and Smyly Lead Rays to 2-1 Win

August 22, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Logan Forsythe is congratulated by Kevin Kiermaier after scoring against the Oakland Athletics during the second inning. Forsythe scored on a single by Desmond Jennings. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Ben Margot)

After putting together a shaky start against the Rangers, Drew Smyly bounced back to posit his first win in 358 days. Smyly tossed 5-2/3 innings of scoreless ball, while Desmond Jennings homered and drove in both runs, as the Tampa Bay Rays survived a challenging ninth and beat the Oakland Athletics by a 2-1 margin, on Friday. Tampa Bay now is back at .500, only two games out in the Wildcard race.

Smyly scattered seven singles while fanning two throughout his start. He may not have been spectacular, but he was good enough to keep Oakland at bay. The lefty focused more on pitching to contact, and — playing off the Athletics aggressiveness at the plate — forced more than his share of weak pop ups and fly balls. More importantly though, his command was much better and he was able to locate all of his pitches.

It just helps when you can locate all your pitches, Smyly said. In Texas I was pretty much throwing two pitches: fastball, slider. Today I threw some changeups, I threw a lot of curveballs, my slider was good. All in all it felt good out there.

And while he only struck out two, both K’s came in crucial moments.

In the fifth inning, after retiring the first two batters, Smyly gave up back-to-back singles to Coco Crisp and Marcus Semien, bringing Billy Burns to the plate. The lefty got Burns to swing through an elevated fastball on the eighth pitch of the at-bat to end the threat.

Smyly allowed three singles in the sixth, sandwiched around a Danny Valencia liner to left. With the bases loaded and one out, Smyly struck out Brett Lawrie for the second out — spelling the end of his night, and bringing RHP reliever Brandon Gomes to the mound. Gomes got pinch-hitter Stephen Vogt to pop out, then came back out to post an impressive 1-2-3 seventh. He’s now collected 26 outs without allowing a baserunner. Steve Geltz then worked a perfect eighth.

Shifting gears a bit, Tampa Bay took an early one run lead in the second inning, after Logan Forsythe was hit by a pitch. Forsythe was wild pitched to second, and came home on a one-out single to left by Desmond Jennings.

Jennings also provided an all too important insurance run in the ninth, hammering a ball into the upper deck off reliever Evan Scribner for his first homer of the season.

As good a spot as any for @d_jennings8 to launch his first HR since 8-8-14. WATCH: http://t.co/npvl8JCDWl pic.twitter.com/WNGGNySzy8

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) August 22, 2015

Tampa Bay had numerous other opportunities to add to its advantage against starter Chris Bassitt.

Asdrubal Cabrera started the fifth with a bunt single and advanced to second on a Jennings groundout. Kevin Kiermaier reached on an infield single off Bassitt’s glove, putting runners at the corners, then Curt Casali walked to load the bases. John Jaso hit the ball hard…yet right into a 4-6-3 double play.

Then in the sixth, Grady Sizemore hit a leadoff double, but the Rays were unable to advance him.

Sigh…another wasted opportunity in the seventh. Kevin Kiermaier, who reached on a fielder’s choice, was moved to third on Curt Casali’s double to the left-field corner. Kiermaier got a good jump off first, and his great speed — combined with Crisp’s weak arm — made for an excellent scoring opportunity, but Charlie Montoya put up the stop sign. Jaso was then hit with a 1-0 pitch, which loaded the bases and sounded the death knell for Bassitt. It also set up one of the more odd moments in baseball, as ambidextrous hurler Pat Venditte took them mound in relief.

Per an MLB rule change, it is the switch pitcher’s responsibility to designate which hand he intends to use when pitching to the next batter. From that point, he has to throw from that side regardless if a pinch hitter is used. Grady Sizemore was pinched for the switch hitting Daniel Nava — not Brandon Guyer or Tim Beckham — even though Venditte was already relegated to throwing as a lefty for that particular plate appearance. Nava popped out to end the prime scoring opportunity.

Up by two runs, Brad Boxberger took over in the ninth. Josh Reddick lined-out to right to start the inning, but Brett Lawrie and Stephen Vogt went back-to-back with singles to put a pair on with one out. Boxberger followed by uncorking a wild pitch which moved the tying runs into scoring position. Coco Crisp scored the Athletics’ first run on a blooped a single to center that was just out the reach of Cabrera. Kiermaier, who fielded the play, tried to throw behind Sam Fuld at second, but the throw was errant and allowed the former Ray to move up to third. Crisp at first was paid no attention and swiped second, putting the tying and winning runs into scoring position. However, Boxberger struck out an over anxious Semien and got Billy Burns to fly out to left, ending the game. For Boxberger it was his 30th save.

The New What Next

Erasmo Ramirez (10-4, 3.57) will takes the mound Saturday for the Rays, opposite of the American League ERA leader Sonny Gray (12-5, 2.04). Ramirez yielded two earned runs in 5-2/3 innings against the Astros on Monday. The righty has lost his last five starts against Oakland, and is 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA against them in his career. Gray is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in four career starts against Tampa Bay. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/22/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso DH
Sizemore RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Jennings LF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Ramirez RHP

Noteworthiness

— Brad Boxberger, after his messy outing and tough save:

You take the end result, definitely. A win’s a win no matter how it is. I still feel I have a lot of work to do. When things are not going your way you can really tell they’re not going your way.

The New What Next: Rays vs Athletics, Part Two — A Series Preview

August 21, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Erasmo Ramirez throws in the first inning against the Houston Astros on August 17, 2015. (Photo Credit: Bob Levey/Getty Images)

It would a massive understatement to say that the Tampa Bay Rays westward trip has been disappointing. First they were swept by the Rangers in three games, then, after piling on the runs in Monday’s series opener with the Astros, Tampa Bay dropped the next two games in walkoff fashion. The team closed out their stint in Houston with a big shutout of the Astros to split the series. That’s all in the past now, as the Rays prepare for the third (and final) leg of this western excursion in Oakland, where they’ll take on the Athletics in a three-game weekend series.

If there was one saving grace in the previous series, the starting rotation was — for lack of a better word — dominant. The starters, combined, allowed just four total runs (1.33 ERA), culminating in a one-hit/11 strikeout complete game shutout by Chris Archer. Another saving grace, despite performing beneath their 10 hit plateau in the series finale, Tampa Bay fared well at the plate…at least as it relates to getting men on base. Getting them home was a completely different story. They collected 42 total hits against Houston, which is great, yet the team went 9-for-40 wRISP (.225 BA).

Oakland looks to extend its home winning streak to six games after sweeping a two-game set from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The victories, however, come on the heels of an 0-7 road trip. This will be the final time these two meet this season. They played a four-game set back in May at the Trop, which saw each team win a pair.

Kevin Cash will start Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez, and Jake Odorizzi over the next three days. Smyly (0-2, 4.35 ERA) allowed five earned runs on seven hits in four innings Sunday in his return to the rotation from the 60-day DL. He is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA in three career appearances at the Oakland Coliseum, although he did posit a decent 5.1 IP/3 ER/6 K outing there last season on August 5. Ramirez (10-4, 3.57 ERA) continued to pitch well Monday against the Astros when he picked up his 10th win of the season. Since permanently joining the starting rotation on May 14, Ramirez has made 17 starts and gone 10-3. Odorizzi (6-6, 3.02) tossed six innings of one run ball Tuesday night, scattering six hits en route to a no-decision. He is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in one career start against the Athletics.

Rays and Athletics series starters over the last 14 days.

Rays and Athletics offensive production over the last 14 days.

Chris Bassitt (1-4, 2.60 ERA): Bassitt is 1-2 with a 2.34 ERA and a .200 opponents’ batting average in five starts since being recalled from Triple-A Nashville on July 25. His ERA during that span is the eighth lowest in the American League. The 26 year-old righty relies primarily on a 94 mph sinker, and a 95 mph fastball with natural sinking action and slight arm-side run. He also mixes in an 86 mph slider and a 72 mph curveball — both which he uses to coax fly balls — and an 84 mph change.

Sonny Gray (12-5, 2.04 ERA): Gray yielded one earned run in 5-2/3 innings in a loss to the Orioles on Monday. Although he allowed just one earned run, Gray wasn’t at his best after missing his last start with back spasms. He swapped places in the rotation with Kendall Graveman to pitch on five days’ rest instead of six. The righty has given up just three earned runs in 21-2/3 innings in August. Gray started in the previous series against Tampa Bay, where he pitched five shutout innings before leaving after only 67 pitches with a right ankle contusion. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, HR, 3 RBI), James Loney (4-9, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (3-11, RBI, BB), Daniel Nava (1-2, RBI), Grady Sizemore (2-2, 2B, RBI).

Kendall Graveman (6-9, 4.27 ERA): Graveman has lost each of his past two starts, surrendering a combined 10 runs (eight earned) during that span. He has only made it through the sixth inning once in his past seven outings. The sinker/cutter/change-up/fastball throwing righty blanked the Rays over six innings on May 23, scattering just three hits. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (1-3).

Noteworthiness

— Prior to Archer’s complete game gem Thursday night, a Rays pitcher hadn’t thrown a complete game in nearly a year, since Drew Smyly’s gem at Toronto on August 22, 2014, the 154 games in between the longest running streak by an American League team.

— Archer reached another milestone, his sixth strikeout Thursday got him to 200 for the season, joining Scott Kazmir (team-record 239 in 2007), David Price (2011-12) and James Shields (2011-12) as the only Rays to do so.

— Archer also did something that hadn’t been done in a decade:

Pitchers to throw a 1-hit shutout w/ 10+ K and < 100 pitches Last 10 seasons Chris Archer (tonight at HOU) Chris Carpenter (2009 at MIL)

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 21, 2015

— As it relates to Drew Smyly’s last start… Smyly expects to pitch better Friday against the Athletics than he did when he allowed five runs in four innings at Texas, on Sunday.

I’m healthy and I feel good, my arm feels good, Smyly said. I had a bad game. I’m looking forward to Oakland. I’m not thinking about the injury, I’m not thinking about Texas. It’s one game. People have bad games. Hopefully I can pitch better. That’s what it comes down to, just pitching better. And I think with more repetitions and more bullpens and more games, I can only go up.

Smyly’s fastball velocity against the Rangers was in the high 80s, although it’s not as much a concern as command, and that getting his curveball under control will be a big plus.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Fall Again in Extras, 3-2

August 20, 2015 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Nathan Karns pitches during the second inning on August 19, 2015 in Houston. (Photo Credit: Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays had a chance to hand Dallas Keuchel his first loss of the season at home, but for the second consecutive game the team couldn’t collect insurance runs late, and the bullpen lost a late lead. The Rays fell 3-2 in 13 innings, and are now 2-10 in extras this year. What follows isn’t a complete recap of the game, rather a few brief points of conversation to mull over.

― Aside from a mistake in the first inning, Nathan Karns was incredible. Relying heavily upon his off-speed stuff, against the fastball hunting Astros, Karns arguably bested Dallas Keuchel, posting an impressive 6 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/8 K/1 HR outing on 84 pitches (53 strikes). For him to take a no-decision shows a lack of justice in this world.

― Xavier Cedeno followed Karns by retiring the side in the seventh. It was his 15th straight scoreless outing, all without allowing a walk, setting a franchise record.

― The inability to get the insurance run in the eighth proved costly, as Brad Boxberger allowed the tying run in the ninth. Boxberger started the frame by getting Jed Lowrie to hit a bad luck soft popper to shallow left, but the ball fell into play against the shift for a bloop double. Then, on a 1-2 pitch to Preston Tucker, Boxberger uncorked a wild pitch to the screen, allowing Lowrie to advance 90 feet. Tucker went down swinging for the first out, bringing Evan Gattis to the plate. Boxberger was able to coax the soft grounder he so badly needed, however, it rolled past the drawn-in infield, plating a run and tying the score at two. Luis Valbuena grounded into a 4-6-3 double play, sending the game to extras.

Oh, it’s the most frustrating thing ever, because you can’t look at something and change something. It’s just a matter of it’s just not going your way that day, or a couple of days, whatever it is.
― Boxberger, on throwing well but not getting the results

― After Brad Boxberger allowed the lead to slip away, Brandon Gomes entered in relief and pitched two superb innings for just the third time this season; the last time he did so was April 29 against the Yankees. Gomes, who also leaned heavily on his off-speed stuff, retired all six of the batters he faced, while racking up four whiffs. He’s now retired 22 consecutive batters over 7-1/3 innings.

― Although they racked up 10 hits, the Rays posited an ugly .200 batting average wRISP (2-for-10). The egregious lack of scoring bit them at the beginning of the game, when they had runners on the corners with one out in the first inning, and again in the eighth.

About the eighth inning…

Keuchel’s night was done after Curt Casali and Brandon Guyer tagged him with back-to-back base hits. Chad Qualls entered the game and quickly struck out Desmond Jennings. Evan Longoria followed with a single to left, but Casali ― running from second ― was held at third. Qualls fanned Logan Forsythe and Asdrubal Cabrera to end the bases loaded threat. The Rays got just one more opportunity to score in the 12th after James Loney doubled into the left-field corner with one out, however, Kevin Kiermaier fouled out and Rene Rivera went down swinging after an extended at-bat.

― Me, playing backseat manager… I would have thrown Alex Colome in the ninth. Colome needed only 10 pitches to buzz through the Astros’ order in a 1-2-3 eighth.

The New What Next

Chris Archer (10-9, 2.93 ERA) will start the final game of the four-game series, opposite of Collin McHugh (13-6, 4.09 ERA). Archer got roughed up in Texas on Saturday when he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 11 hits in 5-1/3 innings against the Rangers. He is 2-1 with a 1.09 ERA in four career starts against the Astros. According to Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune), Archer won’t change his approach if the Astros have the same aggressive approach as the Rangers:

No, because if they execute my pitch they get out and I have less pitches. I don’t mind them being more aggressive. I just have to execute at a higher level or just continue to execute, because what I’ve been doing this year has been successful and I’m going to continue to do that.

McHugh, who has a 2.99 ERA in his last 11 starts, finished with a no-decision in his last start, scattering just four hits over seven innings of one-run ball in the Astros’ loss to Detroit on Saturday. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/20/15 Starting Lineup

Jaso DH
Sizemore RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Cabrera SS
Jennings LF
Kiermaier CF
Rivera C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

― Jake McGee was diagnosed as having a torn meniscus in his left knee that he sustained in Tuesday night’s game. You can read more about it in our updated piece.

― The Rays 10 walkoff losses are the most in MLB, one shy of the team record set in 2002. It was the eighth time they’ve had walkoff losses to straight days, and the second time this season.