The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their dominance over the Blue Jays when they welcome Joey Bats and company into the Trop for a three-game series, starting Monday. The Rays, who lead the American League with a combined 3.28 ERA, have won six of seven against the major league’s top-scoring team in 2015, holding the Blue Jays to two runs or fewer five times. The team returns home after a solid 4-1 road-trip, having won eight of 10 overall to maintain a one-game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees — three ahead of the Blue Jays.

Tampa Bay will start Matt Andriese, Chris Archer and Nathan Karns over the course of the series. Andriese has won his last two outings — once each as a starter and a reliever — while allowing just two runs over 9-2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox and Washington. The Rays have won in his last six appearances, while the righty which has fanned 16 and walked three. Archer put 10 men on base (eight hits and two walks) and struck out just three in five innings on Thursday, but limited the damage to three runs and came away with the win. Karns allowed one run on six hits while walking one and striking out four over 5-1/3 innings on Friday night.

For Toronto, the Blue Jays will attempt to continue their winning ways of late. The Jays have dropped four of their last seven, showing that the mighty team from the great white north can be stopped. The potentially brief lull came after the Blue Jays won 11 in a row, while scoring (on average) close to seven runs per game over the last 18 games. Toronto’s pitching staff allowed just under four runs (on average) per game in that span. Adding to their reputation of being a powerful team, nine of the last 14 wins have been lopsided.

However, the Blue Jays have made a nasty habit of putting it all together, only to return to mediocrity afterward. In fact, they did so in each of the last two seasons.

2014: Toronto won nine straight, and 15 out of 17, then dropped 10 of 13.
2013: Though they won 11 straight, the Blue Jays followed by dropping a pair to Tampa Bay, then losing 19 of the next 25 games (going into the All-Star Break).

Are they a good team? Absolutely, that goes without saying. But, they just can’t seem to put it together consistently. The Rays can put some distance between themselves and the Jays with a series win this week.

Drew Hutchison: Hutchison (6-1, 5.33 ERA) has won his last three decisions, allowing one run combined across 21 innings in the trio of wins. However, Hutchison owns a 5.65 ERA in those three starts. He has been inconsistent, permitting five or more runs in five of his 14 starts and two or fewer in seven of them. Hutchison is 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA in five career outings against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (1-3, 3B), David DeJesus (1-3, HR, RBI), Brandon Guyer (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2 2B, BB).

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey will return from the bereavement list Monday and is in line to make his next scheduled start Tuesday, SportsNet’s Shi Davidi reports. The Rays “figured out” Dickey the last time they faced the knuckle-baller on April 24. They chased him from the game after just 4-2/3 innings, tagging Dickey for eight runs on nine hits including two homers. However, you can never be sure of what you’ll get when RA is on the mound. One thing is certain, he’s allowed four or more runs four times since the 24th, and seven times overall. Furthermore, Dickey is showing regression — his O-Swing (27.8%), first-pitch strike (58.1%), and swinging strike (9.0%) rates are down, while his Z-swing (68.3%), Z-contact (83.7%), and overall contact (80.7%) rates are up. Combine his regressed numbers with a decrease in knuckleball velocity, and you’re left with a pitcher who has become a middle of the rotation starter with a -0.2 WAR, not an ace. Key matchups: Asdrubal Cabrera (5-13, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (4-14, 2 2B, 3 BB), Evan Longoria (9-35, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 BB), Rene Rivera (1-4, HR, 2 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. 1-2, RBI, BB). 

Marco Estrada: Per Rotowire, Estrada flirted with a no-hitter, eventually allowing one run on one hit, walking four and striking out six over seven-plus innings of a 5-4 win against the Orioles on Friday night. As Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) pointed out, Estrada has increased his reliance upon his change-up to great effect: “He’s throwing the change more often than ever before, and it’s still getting as many whiffs as ever (23.1% whiff rate). …Estrada has the fourth-best change-up among starters by whiff rate. But if you look at his overall line, you can see he’s doing the same thing as ever — showing a great whiff rate, a decent walk rate, a low BABIP… and a terrible home run rate.” Estrada allowed just two hits and two walks to the Rays in 4-1/3 combined innings of work this season. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2, 2B), Brandon Guyer (1-1, RBI). 

Noteworthiness

— Steve Geltz has retired 25 consecutive batters, one shy of Kyle Farnsworth’s franchise record in 2011.

— The Rays are 19-2 when Evan Longoria knocks in a run this season. Longoria has 86 RBIs in 121 career games against the Blue Jays.

— Matt Moore made his fourth (of five or six) rehab start on Sunday with Triple-A Durham and, and threw 92 pitches over 5-1/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits (two home runs) while striking out seven and walking one. The lefty reportedly felt good after after the start, clocking in the 92-93 mph range with his fastball. He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session at the Trop on Tuesday, then be reevaluated for the next step. The lefty return to the rotation in 10-15 days, putting his return around July 1.

— Jake Odorizzi threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Monday afternoon at Tropicana Field. He told Roger Mooney (Tampa Tribune) that the plan right now is for him to rejoin the rotation in two weeks. Between then and now Odorizzi will throw another bullpen session (on Wednesday), throw live batting practice on Saturday, and begin a rehabilitation assignment thereafter.

— Other Rays injury updates: James Loney fielded ground balls at the Trop Monday afternoon; he is scheduled to take dry swings later this week. John Jaso hit in the batting cage to face more velocity than he would in batting practice. Finally, Drew Smyly threw long toss from 105 feet.

— Erasmo Ramirez told Matt Baker (Tampa Bay Times) that he’s feeling better, and will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, which will determine whether he’ll start this Friday against the Red Sox.

— Jose Bautista is 5-11 with eight RBI in his last four games and has reached base in 29 of the last 30 contests.