The scene in Port Charlotte Thursday. (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)
The scene in Port Charlotte Thursday. (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

Back in February I received an interesting email from a fellow blogger. His challenge, if I chose to accept it: answer six simple questions (below) about the state of the Rays going into Spring Training and the 2014 season.

  1. How would you grade the off-season?
  2. What does Wil Myers do for an encore?
  3. Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?
  4. What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
  5. What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?
  6. Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Challenge accepted! I made my initial predictions (here and here) with the thought I’d answer the same six questions a month down the line. The aforementioned blogger will be posting my responses on his site as well. Some things have changed, while others have stayed the same. If anything, this was a fun experiment!

How would you grade the off-season?

If you asked me this question during the 2013 Winter Meetings, I’m not certain I would have graded the Rays favorably. After all, there were lingering concerns over David Price’s status with Tampa Bay, and the Rays hadn’t made any significant moves to fill holes in the bullpen and the right-hand side of the infield.  Sure, Friedman and company made a good move by acquiring Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan. Yet low we sat facing the prospect of having a rent-a-player at first, and no official closer. My how things have changed.

Since the 2013 Winter Meetings, the Rays locked James Loney into a three-year contract, signed utility infielder Jayson Nix to a minor league contract, avoided another round arbitration hearings with seven players (including David Price), acquired five players from the Padres — including Brad Boxberger and Logan Forsythe — in a seven player trade, and brought Grant Balfour back home to the other Bay Area. In short, the Rays went from mediocrity to pretty damn good, as it relates to their off-season moves.

Sure, the Rays didn’t sign a designated hitter. However, allow me to remind you that their last productive DH was Johnny Damon, who slashed .261 BA/.326 OBP/.418/.744 OPS in 2011. He wasn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination, however, he didn’t fit the mold of what the Rays were looking out of that position. And lest we forget those who came before and after Damon — Pat Burrell and Luke Scott? Need I really say anything about them? The absence of an official DH gives the Rays flexibility. They’ll be able to give Evan Longoria, Wil Myers, Matt Joyce, David DeJesus and Ben Zobrist some time off their feet, while keeping their productive bats in the lineup on a fairly regular basis.

What does Wil Myers do for an encore?

Oh Wil “AL Rookie of the Year” Myers… The player who out performed the ballyhooed Yasiel Puig (considering a shorter stint in the majors in 2013) with half the fanfare, the player whose first major league homer was a grand slam in Yankee Stadium, and the player whose embarrassing error gave the Red Sox a decided advantage in game one of the 2013 ALDS —  what can we expect out of you this year? Warts and all, Myers met most people’s expectations in 2013. With him in the lineup, the Rays were able to push their way into the postseason following a lackluster August.

Most projection sites find Myers regressing in 2014, presumably due to his hard time in making adjustments at the plate — especially on pitches on the outside corner, and inside (and lower) third of the plate.

However, those sites also project that Myers will be more patient at the plate. They find his K% falling anywhere from 1% to 2%, with an increase in his BB%. Regression happens, it’s inevitable. I don’t see him posting the .293 BA/.354 OBP/.478 SLG/.832 OPS he had the year prior. However, I don’t see him regressing to the .264 BA/.334 OPS/.453 SLG/.787 OPS hitter Steamer projects he’ll be. Over the span of his professional career, Myers has averaged somewhere in the ballpark of a .304 batting average, while hitting under .260 only once — in 2011 with the Royals Double-A affiliate, in 416 plate appearances. Unless there is a drastic change in his approach, or he’s unable to adjust to the pitchers — who will, undoubtedly, adjust to him — I really don’t see a reason for the drastic regression in production many have projected. Would I be content with a .286 BA/+.320 OBP/+.800 OPS/+25 HR slash line? Absolutely!

Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during Spring Training?

Prior to the re-signing of Grant Balfour, and the news Jeremy Hellickson would be out until mid-May, it was easy to foresee battles between Heath Bell and Juan Carlos Oviedo for the closer spot, as well as Jeremy Hellickson and Jake Odorizzi for the fifth starter spot. Since Balfour was named as the closer, and the fifth spot has been all but locked up by Jake Odorizzi or Cesar Ramos, the focus now turns to who will get a bench/depth spot on the roster, who will fill the supporting roles in the ‘pen, and what to do with Hellickson once he returns.

Tampa Bay lost bench depth this off-season. First, they chose not to re-sign Kelly Johnson, then they non-tendered Sam Fuld — leaving open a couple of spots on the opening day roster. Granted, in the scheme of things, neither Johnson or Fuld represented consistent productivity in 2013. What they lacked at the plate however, they made up for in the field. Fuld was a capable outfielder, while Johnson was flexible, playing multiple positions. Logan Forsythe and Sean Rodriguez are all but set, leaving three players for the last spot — Brandon Guyer, Jayson Nix, and Wilson Betemit.

Guyer has the advantage in being out of options, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s had a solid spring defensively. In the end, he helps defensively given the Rays’ plans to use their fourth outfielder as the DH.

As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote,

“Nix probably brings the most overall and has drawn Maddon’s praise for his professionalism. Betemit could help the most offensively, and is a switch-hitter, but reported to camp late after missing most of 2013 with injury.”

Picking Nix or Betemit would require a 40-man roster spot since both are on minor-league deals, making Rodriguez the de facto fifth outfielder.

The Rays added a significant amount of pitching depth in the off-season. The back end guys — Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, and Grant Balfour — are already set. It’s looking like Juan Carlos Oviedo is headed for the DL — thanks in part to the visa issues that kept him in the Dominican Republic — while Heath Bell, Cesar Ramos (depending on the fifth starter status) and Brandon Gomes will likely find themselves on the opening day roster. The need for an Alex Torres-like reliever is ever present. With Brandon Boxberger, a pitcher with similar stuff to Torres, headed to Durham, it’s looking like Josh Lueke will fill the empty spot in the ‘pen — at least for the time being.

A caveat: Josh Lueke is more or less the favorite because he is out of options, not because he’s made a strong case for himself in Port Charlotte. Lueke  would more than likely be lost on waivers, or wouldn’t bring much in trade. In previous callups he has been unable to replicate great minor-league success, though the Rays may not be willing to give up on him just yet.

What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?

Simply put, Jake Odorizzi. Enny Romero could make a dent in things as well. In my opinion, it all depends on two things:

  1. What happens when Hellickson returns.
  2. Whether the rest of the rotation can stay healthy.

What will be the final record of the team, and where will they finish in the division?

The Rays have averaged 91 wins per season since 2008, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t exceed the 90-win plateau in 2014. The pitching staff is strong, the infielders are the same, they acquired a strong catcher in Ryan Hanigan, and the bats in the lineup are solid — as long as Myers, Longo, Zobrist, Escobar, and DeJesus can maintain consistency and productivity.

The question then becomes, how do the other teams fare in the AL East? The Yankees spent a royal boat-load of money in the off-season, spending $503MM on acquisitions. But as Joe Giglio wrote in a piece forBleacher Report,

“Unfortunately for their (Yankees) fans, it’s hard to take an honest look at the roster and peg them for 90-plus wins right now. If Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively, perform up to Cy Young and MVP standards, a different picture could emerge by October. For now, the team is only slightly better than the group that won 85 games last season.”

The other teams in the AL East had fairly quiet off-seasons — including the World Series champs. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays have have deep, powerful lineups. Yet, both teams are lacking a high impact starter or two. Then there’s the Red Sox — a team that retained the core nucleus of  their 97 win squad. The question begs, should we expect another dominant season, or will we see a step back from excellence? I think we can expect another competitive season from those mouth breathers in Boston. However, it’s going to be a lot closer of a race in 2014. My prediction: the Rays and Red Sox at the top of the AL East for the second consecutive season.

Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Without a doubt, Ben Zobrist. Alex Cobb, Yunel Escobar, and James Loney run a very close second.

Noteworthiness

  • In related news, Jake Odorizzi told the local press that he feels good about the case he made for fifth starter’s job. He didn’t do anything wrong, and will be disappointed if not picked. Then, there’s Cesar Ramos. Joe Maddon raved about Ramos following his outing against the Twins Thursday night, saying he’s “never seen him that good.” Whatever the case, it could be assumed that Erik Bedard is out of the running for the fifth starter spot, unless he puts up a solid outing Friday.
  • The Rays optioned Brandon Boxberger to Durham Thursday night, while reassigning Christian Figueroa, Jerry Sands, Ali Solis, Steve Geltz, Juan Sandoval, and Adam Liberatore. Their roster now sits at 37 players with just under two weeks left in Spring Training. Joe Maddon said the Rays want Boxberger to work on his fastball command. He also mentioned “the other stuff is extraordinary, the other pitches – his knuckle-curve and his change-up well above average major-league pitches. Fastball command gets better he’s going to be very, very successful.”

 

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