Update: In order to make room for Alex Cobb on the roster, the Rays optioned reliever Brandon Gomes to Triple-A Durham. I can’t say this was an unexpected move (Read below). Though Gomes has a better upside, he also has an option remaining, whereas Josh Lueke does not. Over his first 11 appearances Gomes pitched to a 2.31 ERA (3ER/11.2IP) and held the opposition to a .209 (9×43) batting average against including one home run. Over his last nine appearances he has pitched to a 7.84 ERA (9ER/10.1IP) and the opposition is batting .346 (14×43) against him and blasting four home runs.
Two relatively important things happened Saturday. First off, Alex Cobb put together a dominant 5 IP/3 H/0 ER/0 BB/9 K/64 pitch (46 strikes) line in his first (and last) rehab start against the Clearwater Threshers, in Port Charlotte.
[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW2h7TvmX_s”]
Then Cesar Ramos (may have) sealed his fate as a starter after be put together a rather lackluster 1.1/4 H/4 ER/1 BB/1 K outing against the Angels, in the Rays 6-0 late-night routing.
Cobb, who has been out since April 13, could return to the Rays rotation as early as Thursday against Oakland. With his imminent return, it’s all but certain that Ramos will reclaim his spot as the true long reliever in the bullpen. Cobb’s upcoming activation begs the question, who will be annexed from the bullpen in order to make room for Cobb on the roster? In my mind it boils down to two players: Brandon Gomes and Josh Lueke.
Before I break things down, it should be mentioned that Josh Lueke’s less than moral decisions have been well documented. If a roster decision — based solely on a subjective point of view — was going to be made, Lueke would have been gone a long time ago. The Rays are going to make a move based on empirical data, not subjective opinions. Since moral choices can’t be quantified (if they could, his poor behavior ERA would be through the roof), and since there isn’t a douche bag clause in his contract, the Rays will base a corresponding move on performance, and performance alone.
I digress.
Both Gomes and Lueke have performed similarly on paper, though Gomes’ poor numbers can be attributed to a recent string of less than stellar outings — Gomes has given up four of his five homers, and seven of his 12 earned runs over his last five outings. Lueke on the other hand, has been consistently mediocre all season. Though Gomes features a slightly higher ERA and FIP, his batting average against, BABIP, and HR/FB% are lower. In his favor, Gomes has stranded a greater number base runners, while coaxing a greater number of fly-ball outs. Neither Gomes nor Lueke have been particularly good in high leverage situations (.333 BA/400 OBP/.667 SLG for Gomes, .500 BA/.500 OBP/.667 SLG for Lueke), yet Gomes has out performed Lueke in those big situations. Based on numbers alone, my opinion is that Gomes is better suited for the pen.
But the numbers alone don’t necessarily bolster the odds for Gomes. There are other factors at play.
Lueke has a couple of things going in his favor. The much maligned reliever is out of options, while Gomes has one remaining. If the Rays choose to release Lueke in any capacity, there’s a risk they’ll get nothing in return. They also see potential in Lueke. Consider the release of Heath Bell a few weeks back. The choice to retain Lueke was predicated on a hope that he would come around, even though he hasn’t. At the time of Bell’s release, Joe Maddon was quoted as saying,
“From a scouting perspective, we still see a really big upside with [Lueke]. At times, you have to be more patient with a more youthful player … We still think if he gets everything together that we’re going to be rewarded by that patience.”
The Rays could send Gomes back to Triple-A Durham in hopes he’ll work through the recent found pitching woes. I’d imagine a move like this could be construed as a last ditch opportunity for Lueke to prove his worth. However, I’d also argue the release of Bell should have sent Lueke a clear message — his spot in the ‘pen isn’t a certainty, nor is it safe. After all, if Friedman and company were willing to eat $5.5MM on an underperforming Bell, there is a very realistic possibility that Lueke could be the next to befall the axe.