Momentum: The driving force or advancing strength of a development or course of events. I’d add an alternate definition for momentum — something the Tampa Bay Rays found hard to accrue in their most recent home stand. Despite the golden opportunity they were handed to leapfrog the Minnesota Twins in the Wildcard standings, and a chance to gather a full head of steam against the Kansas City Royals, the Rays settled for two wins instead. Ouch. Momentum: something the Rays desperately needed to accrue ahead of their trip into Baltimore, where they’ll start a three-game set against the Orioles on Monday. And while the action on field felt rather uninspired and blasé this week, Tampa Bay still has a chance to play relevant baseball in September.
Where the Rays have been mediocre of late, the Orioles have been flat out abysmal. Once ahead of Tampa Bay, both in the AL East and in the Wildcard standings, Baltimore has dropped 11 of its last 15 games. The Orioles are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers, and now find themselves a game back of the good guys.
This is a must win series if Tampa Bay wants to open a little breathing room in the race. Still it may be easier said than done — the Rays are 5-7 against the Orioles in 2015. Then again, the last time they were in the Charm City, Tampa Bay mashed its share of home runs and took 2-of-3. Additionally, the Orioles are have averaged 3.2 runs per game and a .208 batting average in the season series with the Rays.
Kevin Cash with throw Chris Archer (11-10, 2.88 ERA), Drew Smyly (1-2, 3.88 ERA), and Erasmo Ramirez (10-5, 3.68 ERA) over the next three games. Buck Showalter will counter with Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and Kevin Gausman. Archer fanned 12 but surrendered nine hits, four earned runs and a walk in six-plus innings on Wednesday. Smyly allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits and a pair of walks in just 4-1/3 innings against the Twins on Thursday, receiving no decision in an eventual 5-4 win. On the bright side, he struck out five, but this was still a rough outing for Smyly. Ramirez allowed two earned runs on six hits in 4-1/3 innings against the Royals on Friday — an uncharacteristic outing for him, as he’s yielded one earned run or fewer in 12-of-21 starts.
Wei-Yin Chen (8-6, 3.17 ERA): Chen ended his streak of quality starts on Wednesday after he allowed three runs on 10 hits and a walk in 6-1/3 innings against the Royals. Be that as it may, Chen has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts, including a two-run 5-1/3 innings outing against Tampa Bay on July 26. The Orioles have only lost once against the Rays with Chen on the mound this season. Key matchups: JP Arencibia (2-2, RBI), Joey Butler (3-9, 2B, HR, RBI), Logan Forsythe (7-22, 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Brandon Guyer (5-16, 3 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-9, 3B, HR, 2 RBI), James Loney (6-19, 2 2B, HR, RBI), Evan Longoria (9-31, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB), Daniel Nava (7-16, HR, 3 RBI, BB).
Chris Tillman (9-9, 4.58 ERA): Tillman gave up four runs on nine hits and a walk over six innings against the Royals on Thursday, en route to a 5-3 loss. His inability to miss bats lately is a major red flag — he has fanned 14 over 30-2/3 innings in his last five outings. However, Tillman held Tampa Bay to one run in seven innings back on July 24. Key matchups: Joey Butler (2-3, 2B), Brandon Guyer (2-6), Evan Longoria (16-33, 4 2B, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 5 BB), Grady Sizemore (3-10, HR, RBI, BB).
Kevin Gausman (2-6, 4.39 ERA): Gausman gave up four runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out three in 6-2/3 inning in Friday’s loss to Texas. The 24 year-old righty registered quality starts in five of his last six starts entering Friday, but struggled with the Rangers lineup. Gausman has given up 10 homers in his last 10 starts to go along with a very mediocre 4.57 ERA, but he’s averaged a solid 7.86 K/9 and posted a 1.14 WHIP over the same period. Gausman allowed two runs on one hit and two walks in 2-1/3 relief innings against Tampa Bay on April 7th. Key matchups: JP Arencibia (2-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Brandon Guyer (2-3, 2 2B, RBI), John Jaso (2-6, 3B, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-12, HR, 2 RBI), James Loney (3-12, RBI, 2 BB).
Noteworthiness
— Here comes the calvary? Tampa Bay is expected add another catcher — either Justin O’Conner, who is on the 40-man roster, or Luke Maile, who is not — when the rosters expand Tuesday. Richie Shaffer and Mikie Mahtook are also slated to return. LHP Blake Snell may receive his first big-league call-up as well.
The team expects two waves of call-ups: Tuesday and September 8, the day after Durham’s season ends.
LHP Matt Moore, who is is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in five starts since returning to Durham, is also expected. Moore has fanned 43 batters and walked just eight in 30 innings.
— Dr. Jekyll. Tampa Bay’s relievers have allowed one earned run in their last 18-2/3 innings over four-plus games.
— Mr. Hyde. The lineup managed just eight runs in the series with the Royals.
— The Orioles have averaged 2.7 runs and hit .216 over an 11-game span while allowing six wild-card candidates to move ahead of them. Adam Jones is 2-for-20 over that run.