The New What Next: Rays vs. Red Sox ― A Series Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays mustered just enough from offense to pull out a series win against the Chicago White Sox at home over the weekend. They will try to continue their winning ways, starting Monday, when they visit Boston to take on the Red Sox in a three-game set.

Prior to Friday, Tampa Bay dropped three consecutive games while scoring a total of one run. The Rays’ offense managed more than three runs in only three of their first 12 games, leveraging a fair amount of pressure on a pitching staff that has allowed the fewest runs among AL East teams. The team, however, broke out in a 7-2 bombast on Saturday, before putting together a typical Rays win on Sunday with Matt Moore on the mound.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have relied more on the offense than pitching. Even though new closer Craig Kimbrel had fanned 12 of the first 24 batters faced entering Monday’s ballgame against Toronto, representing a bright spot on Boston’s pitching staff, the hurlers have posted an ugly, combined 4.82 ERA/4.06 FIP/.314 BABIP/3.39 BB9/1.30 WHIP/1.39 HR9 slash line. Adding salt to the wound, the typically dependable RHP reliever Koji Uehara, who had yet to allow a run this season, was tagged with four in the eighth inning as Boston dropped the final two of the four-game set.

The challenge for Rays batters will be to pounce on any of Joe Kelly, Rick Porcello and David Price’s mistakes. As for Tampa Bay’s pitchers? Boston hadn’t been shut out at home in 63 straight games, the longest active streak in the majors.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash will counter Boston with Drew Smyly, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi.

Smyly (0-2, 4.61 ERA) pitched well enough to earn a win Wednesday night, allowing just two earned runs on three hits and a walk in seven innings against Cleveland. He also tied a career high with 11 strikeouts. Smyly has been strong against Boston in his career, owning a 3-1 record with a 1.77 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 40-2/3 total innings.

Archer (0-3, 5.87 ERA) is still in search of his first win of 2016, however, he has 23 strikeouts to just eight walks. Archer is also looking for his first win since August 31, 2015, having gone 0-6 with a 5.83 ERA in nine starts since.

Odorizzi (0-1, 2.41 ERA) did not factor into the decision Friday, throwing seven innings of four-hit, scoreless ball in a 1-0 loss to the White Sox. He gave up a walk and struck out six.

Joe Kelly (1-0, 10.13 ERA) put 12 men on base ― seven hits and five walks ― in five innings Wednesday, but struck out six and limited the O’s to two runs. With 14 hits and eight walks allowed through his first eight innings of work, it’s clear that this isn’t the start the righty hoped for in 2016. Yet, thanks to the offense, the Red Sox have managed to win both of his outings. The righty has been very hittable while showing major issues with control and command over his career. So far this season, Kelly has relied on a 96 mph four seam fastball, which he uses to generate whiffs; and an 89 mph swing and miss slider. He’s also mixed in a 96 mph sinker (96mph), an 82 mph knuckle curveball, and an 86 mph changeup. Kelly made two starts against the Rays in 2015 and went 1-0 despite yielding a total of 10 runs and 17 hits in 10 innings. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3), Logan Forsythe (2-5, 3 RBI, 1 BB), Desmond Jennings (2-3), Evan Longoria (2-5, RBI, BB), Steve Pearce (3-7, HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (3-5, 2B, HR, RBI)

Rick Porcello (2-0, 5.11 ERA) allowed three runs on two hits, while walking one and striking out eight over 6-1/3 innings on Friday night. The typically ground ball inducing righty only coaxed a 45% ground ball rate last season and saw his ERA balloon to 4.92. However, Porcello’s strikeout rate ticked up, thanks to a few extra whiffs on the fastball/changeup combo. Expect a 90 mph sinker that somehow generates a decent number of fly balls, an 85 mph cutter, a 74 mph curveball that has exceptional bite, a 92 mph four seam fastball and an 81 mph palm-grip changeup. The right-handed Porcello is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA over the last three seasons against Tampa Bay. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (4-10, 2 BB), Desmond Jennings (6-18, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Brad Miller (2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (4-7, 2B, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (5-12)

David Price (2-0, 4.50 ERA) struck out nine on Saturday en route to a 4-2 victory. He allowed two earned runs on six hits over seven innings. After a rough first inning, Price settled down with his only other mistake coming in the when he surrendered an RBI double to Edwin Encarnacion. Of his 107 total pitches 74 crossed for strikes, and the former Ray induced 20 whiffs along the way. He has now struck out 27 batters in just 18 innings this season. We are all familiar with Price, and I needn’t say any more. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3, 2B), Curt Casali (3-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Hank Conger (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, 2B, HR, RBI), Steve Pearce (5-18, HR, 3 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (2-6, 2B, RBI)

Noteworthiness

― Brandon Guyer went 5-6 with a home run and two RBI in the last two games.

― The Rays pitching staff has the best K/BB ratio in baseball, with 4.71 strikeouts for every walk. Compare that to last season when the staff collected a 2.84 K/BB.

― Tampa Bay had 28 strikeouts against two walks in the three game series against Chicago.

― Logan Morrison is now 2-32 with 14 strikeouts.

― The Rays entered play Tuesday last in the American League teams in hits (80), batting average (.212) and on-base percentage (.268) and 14th in runs (34) and walks (25).

― Rays hitters have swung at an MLB high 51 percent of all pitches thrown. They also have the highest Z-Swing% (71.8) and O-Swing% (32.9) percentages.

To compare, the White Sox are second in percentage of swings (49.6) as well as O-Swing% (32.1).

― Pablo Sandoval (shoulder) had an examination scheduled for Monday pushed back two weeks due to continued swelling.

― Perhaps Conger should be benched over the next three days? Boston went 9-10 on stolen-base attempts entering Monday, among the best success rates in baseball.