The Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their recent spade of quality play Monday, when the Baltimore Orioles enter the Trop for a three-game series.
Though Tampa Bay resides in the cellar of the AL East, the ball club is 3-0-1 in it’s last four home series, having taken two of three from Toronto over the weekend. Logan Forsythe has come up big for the Rays of late, recording multiple hits in five of his past six games and going 9-15 with five walks in the last four.
Meanwhile, the Orioles could not finish off a sweep against the Yankees on Sunday, falling 5-2, although they have had their way against the Rays this season — winning nine of 12 games and launching 19 homers. Baltimore slugger Chris Davis has three of those homers and nine RBI, while Manny Machado has also gone deep three times and is currently in the midst of a five-game hitting streak.
Be that as it may, Tampa Bay is outperforming Baltimore in the second half of the season, boasting a +25 run differential and a +27.4 wRAA differential. The Rays also possess a higher combined slugging percentage (.447 vs.424), OPS (.766 vs .719), BABIP (.300 vs.260), and ISO (.194 vs .185), so it’s not a forgone conclusion that Baltimore is in for a cake walk.
Over the next three days, Rays manager Kevin Cash will lean on Matt Andriese (6-6, 4.19 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (9-5, 3.56 ERA), and Drew Smyly (6-11, 4.94 ERA). Buck Showalter will counter with Ubaldo Jiménez (5-11, 6.46 ERA), Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.62 ERA), and Dylan Bundy (8-5, 3.47 ERA).
Rays Series Starters
Andriese had a forgettable 4 IP/7 R start on Monday against the Red Sox. The righty allowed 10 hits, walked one, and struck out four in his worst start of the season — capping what had been a tough month of August in which he allowed 25 runs in 29 innings, and lost four straight decisions.
Odorizzi threw six strong innings of three-run ball on Tuesday, surrendering five hits and two walks while striking out seven. The lanky right-hander was in the midst of a one-hit shutout until the fifth inning, when Hanley Ramirez lined a homer down the right field line. Odorizzi has been very good since the All-Star Break, going 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA over his last seven starts.
Smyly allowed five runs on seven hits over five innings on Wednesday, striking out four and walking two. All the runs allowed came off two home runs. First, Xander Bogaerts hit a solo shot, then Hanley Ramirez hit a grand slam on the first pitch of a bases loaded at-bat.
Orioles Series Starters
Jimenez limited Toronto to three runs on five hits over 6-2/3 innings on Tuesday. He struck out three and walked two. Expectations have been low with Jimenez, but that outing was a pleasant surprise. His inflated numbers are due in large part to a gaudy overall 5.11 BB/9, however, he’s lowered that number to 1.80 over the last 14 days. The Rays haven’t faced Jimenez since April 26th when they touched him for three runs on six hits over six innings. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-2, 2B, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Brad Miller (2-6, 2B), Logan Morrison (4-6, 2B, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2, BB), Bobby Wilson (2-4, BB)
Gallardo tossed six innings of three-run baseball on Wednesday, allowing five hits and two walks against the Blue Jays. He fanned three. The righty bounced back from a horrendous start in his last turn when he didn’t make it out of the second inning. Gallardo lowered his ERA to 5.62 with the start, but still holds a miserable 1.25 K/BB. The Rays plated just three runs on eight hits and four walks over five innings against Gallardo on July 17th. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (5-9, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Logan Forsythe (6-16, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (3-9, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Luke Maile (2-2, RBI), Brad Miller (3-10, 2B, 3B, 3 BB)
Bundy threw 5-2/3 scoreless innings on Friday, allowing two hits and four walks while fanning five Yankees. Buddy has had some location issues — he collected 33 strikeouts and five walks in his first five starts, but has just 20 strikeouts and 15 walks in his last five outings. The Rays tagged him for four runs on 5 hits over 3-1/3 innings back on July 17th. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-3, HR, RBI), Brad Miller (2-3, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (1-2)
Noteworthiness
— Kevin Kiermaier has hit safely in eight consecutive games, going 11-35 over that stretch.
— Brad Miller is batting .318 against Baltimore in 2016 while Evan Longoria owns just a .191 average and three homers in the season series.
—Adam Jones is 3-5 versus Andriese, who is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA against Baltimore after suffering a loss in June. Additionally, Jones notched two hits in each of the three games against New York after returning from a hamstring injury.