The Rays and Milwaukee Brewers have agreed to a deal sending first baseman Jesus Aguilar to Tampa Bay in return for right-hander Jake Faria.
Aguilar was acquired off waivers from Cleaveland before the 2017 season. He spent that campaign in a platoon with Eric Thames at first base, slashing .265 BA/.331 OBP/.505 SLG/.836 OPS with 16 homers and a 113 wRC+. He followed that up with an All-Star 2018, hitting .274 BA/.352 OBP/.539 SLG/.891 OPS with 35 home runs and a 134 wRC+. That production, however, looks like a faint memory.
For his 2019 campaign, Aguilar has hit a meek .230 BA/.328 OBP/.385 SLG/.713 OPS with eight homers, a subpar 83 wRC+, and a major drop in his ISO — from .264 to .155. Still, the 29-year-old has gotten toasty in July, registering above-average production at the plate to the tune of a .298 BA/.346 OBP/.574 SLG/.920 OPS across 52 plate appearances with three homers.
Last week Connor Byrne (MLB Trade Rumors) gave another reason to be hopeful for a sustained bounceback from Aguilar.
For all the faults in Aguilar’s bottom-line production, there are reasons for hope. For one, he remains something of a Statcast favorite. There’s a wide chasm between Aguilar’s weighted-on base average (.312) and expected wOBA (.351). He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in xwOBA and checks in similarly well in expected slugging percentage (65th) and exit velocity (66th). And contrary to many other power hitters, Aguilar’s not overly prone to striking out. He has fanned a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time (with a better-than-average 12.3 percent walk rate), posted a decent 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate and chased out-of-zone pitches less than most hitters.
— Connor Byrne
The first baseman is a change-of-scenery candidate whose skill set closely aligns with his new organization. The Rays have been searching for a right-handed bat for a while, and Aguilar is a player that’s cheap now (he’s currently on a near-minimum salary), under team control until 2023, and is slated to take his first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming offseason.