(Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
(Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Instead of writing about yesterday’s offensive letdown of a game, I wanted to switch things up a bit and look ahead. Before I move on, if you wanted a recap of sorts, head over to DRaysBay where Ian put together a brief writeup.

On Saturday, Marc Topkin wrote,

Though contract decisions are theoretically based on the full season’s work, play over the final month can sometimes shape the thinking. The Rays don’t have a lot of decisions, with no pending free agents and only two players with options. They can, of course, shift payroll with trades or non-tenders.

He went on:

With so many players under control, the key to offseason flexibility might be trades, for which scouting, plotting and planning are often done now. There are a few players the Rays would be eager to deal, such as RHP Grant Balfour and C Jose Molina, but likely can’t. Some they will consider dealing based on 2015 salaries vs. their recent production, such as OF Matt Joyce, INF/OF Sean Rodriguez and, maybe, RHP Jeremy Hellickson (though LHP Matt Moore’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is part of the equation). And certainly there are a few they could be tempted to deal, such as CF and, you wonder, maybe RF Wil Myers.

It got me thinking — with six outfielders currently on the 25-man roster (not including utility men Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez), the Rays are flush with outfield depth. Too, with a 99.9% chance of irrelevant baseball expected for the upcoming month of play, the Rays front office will — likely — start to refocus its attention to 2015 season.

Rays outfielders offensive and defensive numbers. (Statistics courtesy of Fan Graphs)
Rays outfielders offensive and defensive numbers. Note: a good amount of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier’s 2013 statistics were unavailable because they were in Triple-A Durham then. (Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs)

Ahead of the 2014 season, a common theme began to pop up among many a Rays blogger: Tampa Bay needs speed on the base paths. And while I wouldn’t necessarily call it kismet, the additions of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier have alleviated that need in a manner of speaking. David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce have all fallen off in the speed department.* Guyer and Kiermaier — along with Jennings and Wil Myers — have made the Rays a much faster team. It goes without saying, with speed comes the ability to prowl the outfield more effectively, which speaks to the UZR of the above mentioned players.

Arm strength is also another concern. While Kiermaier’s cannon has been well documented, Jennings has fallen off significantly, making him a candidate for platoon duty in right field along with David DeJesus and Guyer. A move along these lines would make room for Kiermaier in center, and Joyce and Myers in right.

The question begs, are there any tradable/disposable pieces who could free up payroll space for any future acquisitions to bolster the roster? The simple answer is yes. After all, the Rays don’t need six outfielders (or eight, when you include Zobrist and Rodriguez) on the roster. Who then should go? If we’re talking about trading only one player, I’d have to say Matt Joyce for a few different reasons.

First, his numbers have improved in eight of the 14 categories listed above — with the exceptions of his power numbers (SLG and ISO), speed, fielding, and UZR. Because of those improved numbers, his overall value has increased from $8.7 MM to $11.4 MM. With the increased overall value, Joyce may pull more than the Rays would be willing to dole out next season, an arbitration year. And with the increased overall value, one would assume his trade value could be peaking as well, which could give Tampa Bay an opportunity to trade for a few key pieces in the bullpen. In light of what DeJesus has done this season, over the span he’s played, trading Joyce wouldn’t necessarily be to the detriment of the 2015 roster.

If the intent is to use this season as a checklist of sorts for the next, the Rays’ deficiencies — which are glaring — must be addressed if Tampa Bay wishes to be relevant in 2015. Trading Matt Joyce could, at least, start to address those deficiencies.

Noteworthiness

  • Some familiar faces will be in the clubhouse today after the roster expansion:

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  • Ali Solis was outrighted off the 40-man roster, and accepted his assignment. The move created a spot for Steve Geltz on the 40-man roster.
  • In addition to players, the Rays have have called up Class-A Stone Crabs hitting coach Joe Szekely for this week.
  • Your tweet of the day:


* This isn’t to say that Desmond Jennings is a slacker in any way, shape, or form.

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