The prodigal son is expected to return to Tampa Bay pending a physical.

Free-agent right-hander Chris Archer is returning to the Tampa Bay Rays according to Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic). The one-year, 6.5-Million deal is pending a physical.

Archer was a highly touted prospect prior to his debut in 2012. Then from 2013 onward, the right-hander was seen as a valuable member of the Rays’ rotation if not the de facto ace. Through the final year of his initial run with Tampa Bay (2018), Archer posted a 3.69 ERA with a 25.8% K% and a 7.7% BB% across 1,063 innings and 177 starts.

Yet, the Rays decided to trade Archer to Pittsburgh when his team control was dwindling prior to the 2018 trade deadline. That proved to be another fantastic trade by Erik Neander and the Rays, who received right-handers Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz, as well as outfielder Austin Meadows from the Pirates in exchange for Archer. Glasnow and one-time All-Star Meadows have turned into big-league building blocks for the Rays, while Baz is the seventh-best prospect in the number one farm system in baseball according to FanGraphs.

On the flip side, the trade was a disaster for the Pirates, as they lost three quality players and gained one that was disappointing while donning the black and yellow. Under the tutelage of Ray Searage and Oscar Marin, Archer was encouraged to lean on his sinker which resulted in a .327 BA/.270 xBA/.490 SLG/.440 xSLG/.396 wOBA line which resulted in eight punchouts across 59 plate appearances in 2018, and an even uglier .378 BA/.390 xBA/.778 SLG/ .803 xSLG/.504 wOBA line with just four punchouts a season later. His overall production fell even more in 2019 when, according to Connor Byrne (MLB Trade Rumors), Archer logged career worsts in ERA (5.19), SIERA (4.38), and home run-to-fly ball percentage (20.2) across 119-2/3 innings. Pittsburgh hoped that Archer would bounce back last season, however, he missed the entirety of the shortened 2020 campaign after undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June. The Pirates chose to decline his $11-Million club option for the upcoming season in favor of a $250-Thousand buyout.

Given Archer’s recent performance, yet reduced salary, the deal represents a low risk/high ceiling deal for the Rays. If healthy, the 32-year-old right-hander may be able to add to the Rays’ rotation which lost both Blake Snell and Charlie Morton following the World Series.

Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) made a good point on how to view Tampa Bay’s offseason pitching acquisitions — Michael Wacha and now Archer — on the Rays Radio blog.

The layperson will look at the Rays now and say Snell and Morton have been replaced by Archer and Michael Wacha. I don’t think that’s really the case. For one, whether it’s by trade or free agency, I think Tampa Bay will still add pitching between now and the start of Spring Training games on February 27th.

In addition, I don’t think it’s fair to compare, only because I think the pitchers will be used differently. The Rays staff will deploy the team’s pitchers to best maximize the team’s 1450 or so innings and give the club the best chance to win each night.

If Wacha and Archer each provide 140–150 good innings, they will have served an important purpose in 2021, and provided some young pitchers more time to grow. If they do better than that, that’s icing on the cake.

In addition, having both pitchers could allow the team to use other staff members differently. For instance, rather than pitching in a bulk role, Aaron Slegers or others like him can go two or three innings to follow a starter. When you add up those innings, perhaps 150 from a starter, and 90–110 from some two or three-inning pitchers will allow for better results, especially in such a unique year.

And when I look at how the Rays replace Snell and Morton, it will be the combination of Archer, Wacha, whomever they add, plus Luis Patino, Shane McClanahan, Joe Ryan and several others that will determine the team’s ability to produce. Based on how they use pitchers, I think the Rays will find a slightly different way to have a very effective staff.

— Neil Solondz

It would be reasonable to assume that Tampa Bay will wait until the start of Spring Training to make the deal official, as a roster move is necessitated in order to make room for Archer on the 40-man roster, which is currently full.

It would also be reasonable to assume that Archer could fill a bulk guy role — be that pitching behind an opener, or being limited to five-to-six innings or two times through the order (whichever comes first) — given his historical struggles the third time through. We will touch on that very subject in the next week, once we parse the data.

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