Here we are, on the precipice of the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings, and the Tampa Bay Rays front office team of Matt Silverman, Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom, as well as manager Kevin Cash, are tasked with trying to figure out how to improve the ball club.
Before hitting the highways and byways en route to the meetings in Washington DC, the front office team, and Cash, hosted a press conference, where they provided some insight into their offseason priorities. In spite of a very disappointing 94 loss season, it seems doubtful the team is looking for a top to bottom rebuild. In fact, they feel like they don’t need much. Rather they highlighted three priority upgrade areas: catcher, bullpen, and the addition of an impact hitter who could slot into an outfield/DH role.
Unless they open holes with a big trade, expect to see a strong core of familiar names next season, like Evan Longoria, Matt Duffy, Logan Forsythe, and Brad Miller on the infield, and Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson/Mikie Mahtook in the outfield, with Nick Franklin slotting in as the super utility player.
I’m still amazed at how well Nick adapted to playing the outfield, said Cash. He got out there and after a week looked completely comfortable. To know he can do that, go in at second, third even first adds to that versatility we’re always searching for.
However, that doesn’t speak to the team’s needs.
How will they meet those needs? By way of in-house promotions — expect Ryne Stanek and Jaime Schultz to join Alex Colome, Brad Boxberger, Xavier Cedeno and, if not traded, Erasmo Ramirez in the bullpen — free agent signings, or by trade. And while Silverman and his team will listen to offers on any player, the probability of a roster blow-up is low, especially if they want to be competitive in 2017.
We’re always open for conversation, Silverman said. We don’t turn away conversations. … Our goal is to put a playoff-caliber club on the field and to do that we have to be creative, we have to be willing to make big deals and willing to take … calculated risks in terms of the trades that we make.
As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, the best way for the Rays to add the dynamic pieces they need to get back to contention is to take advantage of a barren market and give up one (or more) of the arms from a stash of starters that runs eight deep.
It should be assumed that Chris Archer (and his team-friendly five year, $38.5-million contract) Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, and Alex Cobb will hear their names pop up frequently over the next five days.
Archer already has garnered a lot of interest from the Braves and now the Astros, but despite the fact Atlanta and Houston has young talent available — infield prospect Ozzie Albies from Atlanta, and Alex Bregman and Francis Martes from Houston — it’s doubtful that Tampa Bay would deal its ace. Besides, the Rays undoubtedly will ask for a king’s ransom in return for Archer.
If the Braves are going to trade for a top SP, Archer is the most likely. But for now, the Rays’ ask far exceeds the Braves’ comfort zone.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) December 4, 2016
It is reasonable to assume the front office is more inclined to ship out Smyly, Ramirez or Odorizzi, despite getting less in return.
It’s going to be hard to guess who will be a starter, or who may slot into the bullpen, until the dust settles from this week’s Winter Meetings. Be that as it may, Silverman and company have an opportunity to improve the ball club, and it would be foolish for them to not act.
Trade Candidates
The Rays’ business starts with trading a starter, and here’s one way to rank who should be going (courtesy of Marc Topkin).
1. LHP Drew Smyly
Age: 27. Career stats: 31-27, 3.74, 9.6 WAR
Contract control: Through 2018; third-year arbitration eligible, $7M projection
Quick pitch: Best to part with money-wise but sliding scale if return is worth it
2. RHP Jake Odorizzi
Age: 26. Careers stats: 30-30, 3.75, 8.1 WAR
Contract control: Through 2019, first-year arbitration eligible, $3-4M projection.
Quick pitch: Immense value in being cost effective, healthy and good
3. RHP Erasmo Ramirez
Age: 26. Career stats: 25-29, 4.14, 145 G, 3.3 WAR
Contract control: Through 2019; second-year arbitration eligible $3-4M projection
Quick pitch: Won’t bring as much back but maybe more than you’d think
4. RHP Chris Archer
Age: 28. Career stats: 48-51, 3.51, 128 G, 10.8 WAR
Contract control: Through 2021 for $38.5 million; salaries starting at $4.75M in 2017, then $6.25M, $7.5M, $9M option, $11M option
Quick pitch: Hard to say you’re “hellbent” on competing and trade your top starter
5. RHP Alex Cobb
Age: 29. Career stats: 36-25, 3.44, 86 G, 8.5 WAR
Contract control: Through 2017, third-year arbitration eligible, $4-5M projection
Quick pitch: Wiser after late ’16 return to let him build value with strong first half and deal in July