By Ian Welsh, with additions by Schmitty
I don’t put much credence into projections and predictions. With that said, projections can offer quite a bit of insight into a mathematically calculated outcome, whereas predictions are a wild stab in the dark by people who look at everything face value. Predictions rarely turn out correct (see the Rays predictions to go to the World Series last year) and projections, more often than not, warrant merit.
FanGraphs released the 2015 Steamer projections for pitchers a short while ago. Schmitty posted a pair of articles about the projected outcomes of the bullpen and offense for the Rays, and now we’ll look at the starting pitching projections.
Tampa Bay’s starting pitching had a very minimal dent taken out of it, compared to the rest of the team’s depth chart. The Rays dealt once heralded Rookie of the Year winner Jeremy Hellickson to the Arizona Diamondbacks, for Single-A SS Andrew Velazquez, and Single-A OF Justin Williams — both of whom have featured prominently in the Rays top 20 prospects. Aside from Matt Moore’s absence until possibly May or June, while he recovers from Tommy John’s surgery, the starting rotation is intact. That starting rotation has been mentioned as the most formidable in the AL East, and one of the best in the American League — a position the Rays have enjoyed for quite sometime.
The team is projected to have four starters with double-digit wins in 2015, and five coming in below 4.00 in both ERA and FIP. Tampa Bay is projected to improve upon their numbers over the year previous without the dead weight of Erik Bedard and Hellickson, though a whole year without former ace David Price could pose a formidable hurdle to overcome.
Let’s break down the presumed starters
Alex Cobb: Alex Cobb has always been a diamond in the rough. Once the bulldog behind James Shields and Price, yet not heralded nearly as much as Matt Moore, Cobb is now the veteran ace of the staff. Cobber shells batters with a no-nonsense approach, and attacks with a pinpoint accurate fastball, a plus curve-ball, and a devastating split/change. While he was sidelined a month or so with an oblique strain, he still posted a 10-9 record (he relinquished three runs or fewer in three of those losses) with a 2.87 ERA (3.23 FIP) in 166.1 innings of work. His 1.136 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 was nothing to scoff at either. He is projected to post a 12-10 record in 2015, with a 3.48 ERA (3.29 FIP) in 192 innings of work. Expect a slight regression in his WHIP (1.22) K/9 (7.96).
Compared to the projections on Price, Cobb falls just off the mark. However, with a healthy season, I could see all these numbers improving.
Chris Archer: Last season was Archer’s first full season in the big leagues, and it wasn’t bad. He pitched to a 10-9 record, slashing 3.33 ERA/3.39 FIP/1.279 WHIP/8.0 K9/0.6 HR9 (tied with Cobb for the lowest on the team) in 192 innings of work. He, unfortunately, posted the highest walk rate on the team with a 3.3 BB/9 and his 2.40 K/BB wasn’t too terribly impressive.
This season he’s projected to regress some with an expected 11-11 record, while slashing 3.88 ERA/3.81 FIP/1.29 WHIP/7.94 K9/3.29 BB9 in 182 innings of work. A few things will help him exceed the expectations placed before him. First, he needs to control the zone and keep the ball on the ground. There’s also a need to perfect that third pitch of his — the change-up he only relied upon 5.2% of the time in 2014. Controlling his emotions will be key as well. Archer has break out stuff, and it’s just a matter of him realizing he has control of it.
Jake Odorizzi: Last season Jake Odorizzi suffered from similar issues of inconsistency with Archer. While he kept pace with Price on hits (156) and homers (20) allowed, he also gave up 59 walks and had an ERA above 4.00 (3.75 FIP). Moreover, he posted the highest WHIP in the Rays starting rotation, and the second highest BB/9 at 3.2. His issues had a lot to do with control, unlike his nibbling predecessor Jeremy Hellickson.
There were more than a few bright spots for Odorizzi to build upon in 2015 — his 9.3 K/9 being one of them. Odorizzi is projected to improve this season. His ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 are projected to drop, and he is projected to post .500 win percentage. With bit more control, and the ability to master his secondary pitches, Odorizzi could begin to perform like a Shields-like pitcher. This year may be the step in that direction.
Drew Smyly: Smyly has been a heck of an acquisition for the Rays. He picked up right where Price left off; hitting the ground running when he landed in Tampa Bay. He exited Detroit with a sub par 9-10 record and a 3.93 ERA. Drew was tagged with more than his fair share of hits, and he wasn’t the most efficient pitcher. Yet that tune changed under Jim Hickey’s tutelage. Smyly all but ditched his change-up and focused on throwing his rising fastball more often. Because of it, he went 3-1 and didn’t relinquish more than three earned runs in each of his seven starts with the Tampa Bay. He gave up fewer hits, earned runs and walks, and tallied more strikeouts on a team that actually had a place for him. What can we expect out of Smyly in his first full season with the Rays?
For whatever reason, Steamer projects Smyly to throw only 125 innings — 28 fewer than in 2014. Sticking with the Steamer projections for a moment, he’s expected to slash 3.50 ERA/3.82 FIP/8.13 K9/2.77 BB9/1.22 WHIP with an 8-7 record. However, Fans (12) projects a much better outcome for Smyly. For one, Fans (12) sees Smyly tossing 189 innings. They also project Smyly to slash 3.21 ERA/3.42 FIP/8.43 K9/2.33 BB9/.296 BABIP with a 76.9% LOB.
The projected uptick in his K9 in 2015 (from 7.82 to 8.43 via Fans (12)) isn’t coincidental. Rising fastballs typically result in whiffs or weak poppers. Smyly’s increased usage of the rising fastball has had (and should continue to have) a similar result. Smyly faced 173 total batters with Tampa Bay last season, coaxing 13 infield fly balls (IFFBs) and striking out 44 batters. As Bradley Woodrum (DRaysBay) writes, “In just 13% of his career (173 batters), he collected exactly 25% of his career IFFBs,” and that has everything to do with Smyly’s different approach as a Ray. There is nothing to suggest that Smyly will regress in any way, shape, or form — rather, for the Rays lefty, the opposite is true. Don’t look now, but David Schoenfield (ESPN) thinks Smyly is a sleeper Cy Young Award candidate.
Matt Moore: Matt Moore only threw in two games in 2014 before he was sent to the DL for the rest of the season, subsequently going under the knife. Previous to that, he came off a stellar 17-4 season which saw a trip to the All-Star game, and whispers of the Cy Young Award. He’s expected to return to the mound some time between mid-May and June. Steamer has him posting a 10-10 record and a 4.04 ERA (4.26 FIP) in 163 innings of work. At a projected 29 starts, I get the feeling that Steamer did not take into consideration his time off. Nevertheless, they have him slashing 1.33 WHIP/8.05 K9/3.74 BB9. I feel like the wins and losses are conservative. I’d imagine there will be some rust to knock off, but we could see a good snapshot of his old, killer stuff.
Others who will factor in 2015
While Moore is out, the Rays will go with an in house option to fill the void instead of signing a veteran starter on the cheap as in previous years (cough…Roberto Hernandez, Erik Bedard). Steamer seems suggest Tampa Bay will start the season with Alex Colome as the fifth starter, then switch to Nathan Karns.
Alex Colome: The Rays have seen Alex Colome twice in both 2013 and 2014, starting six games total and relieving two last season. In 2014 he posted a 2-0 record with a 2.66 ERA in 23 innings pitched. The biggest concern with Colome has always been his fastball command, though he is an effective pitcher and has the raw talent to do great things.
Colome will make the roster in some capacity, because he is out of options.
This season he’s looking to see more games as a starter, at least initially, though he’s projected to post a 5-6 record with a 4.31 ERA (4.59 FIP). While he seems to improve with big league experience, it’s hard to imagine a prospective move to the bullpen would effect his game this much.
Nathan Karns: Rays fans got a look at this relatively unknown pitcher from Durham last season, and many were blown away by his stuff — namely his knuckle curve-ball. Despite a bad year in Durham — where he gave up a career high number of walks and earned runs — Karns saw an efficient, and somewhat mixed bag, in the majors.
Karns went 1-1 in two starts with Tampa Bay, though his first game was spectacular. Karns pitched seven strong shutout innings, and only gave up two hits and two walks, while ringing up eight. His second game…not so much. The Rays need to give him a longer look until we see what he can do. Karns is only projected to see eight games this season, tallying a 4-4 record and a 3.75 ERA (4.16 FIP) along the way. He’s also expected to post a 3.50 BB9 and an 8.49 K9. In the end, his projected numbers are a vast improvement over his performance in Durham last season. Perhaps a longer look in the bullpen would help him adjust to the big leagues? In the end he’s still untested; his major league career is only spans four games. More time on a major league roster could make him a legitimate option in the rotation.
These projections are just that, projections — an equated look at what may happen with the team. Do I think they are conservative? Yes, especially when they are compared to a player’s overall history. I do not know if things like a new manager or coaching staff have factored into these projections. And since a good number of roster moves have taken place since the release of the Steamer projections, some of the presumed statistics may be skewed one direction or another to account for a new infield, a few new faces in the outfield, and a new catcher. To that end, a lot will depend on how well the defense meshes this spring — which, aside from the middle infield, looks like it will improve. I’d like to say most the guys will probably see better numbers than projected, but that is just my opinion. As I said earlier, these numbers tend to be conservative. With that in mind though, things look like they are on the upward trend for the most part with this group of guys. One thing is certain, we are about to find out.
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