Every year, Daniel and the Cardinals Conclave invite me to participate in their yearly season preview called Playing Pepper. Sometimes I wonder “why?” given the glut of good writers they publish. Nevertheless, I always say yes, and I always share my responses with you, dear reader. Without further adieux, here are my responses. To read the piece in its entirety, click the link that follows:
Tampa Bay Rays
86-76, third in the AL East, lost in the Wild Card series
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Last year’s Pepper
Top pitcher by fWAR: Shane McClanahan (3.5)
Top hitter by fWAR: Yandy Diaz (3.8)
The Rays are the little engine that could. Even with a remarkably low payroll, a terrible stadium, and significant attendance issues, they still find a way to succeed. Last year was the fourth straight year they’ve seen the playoffs, something many bigger payroll teams couldn’t say. However, it’s fair to wonder if that engine has enough power to get over the mountain as three of the last four years have seen a quick October exit. (The fourth, to be fair, was a World Series loss.) How much coal does this engine have? Let’s see what our Tampa friends say!
C70: The Rays are never going to be big players in free agency but they did make some moves this winter. What were your thoughts on those and how is the team looking going into 2023?
I really like how the team is looking heading into Opening Day. While it’s true that Tampa Bay didn’t make an indelible mark on free agency this past off-season, the team was able to lock up a handful of players via contract extensions and it netted right-hander Zach Eflin, signing the hurler to a three-year, $40 million contract. That tells me not only are the Rays confident in the current core of players for the upcoming season, but they’re confident in that core through 2026. On top of that, with the exception of a few players, the team is something that it wasn’t last season — healthy. A healthy Rays team is akin to one that has been bolstered by players acquired via free agency.
C70: Tyler Glasnow has had a couple of rough years dealing with injury. Is he fully healthy and what can he give the team this season?
Tyler Glasnow was injured while throwing to hitters during a live batting practice session on February 27 and hasn’t thrown a ball since — which tracks with the 6-to-8-week timeline attached to his recovery process — while he receives treatment on the injury. He is expected to be reevaluated soon. If there is a silver lining, it’s that Glasnow’s injury is unrelated to his surgically repaired right elbow. What’s more, given that the right-hander hasn’t thrown more than 88 innings since 2018, he would have been on some sort of innings limit. With the minimal workload in mind, it’s probable that the coaching staff would have kept a watchful eye on his inning count this season. When he returns, figure at some point in April, he should be able to go out there and give the team an upper 90s fastball, a nasty low 90s slider, and a hammer curveball.
C70: What do you think the strength of this team is going to be?
Simply put, the Rays’ strength is in what it always is in — pitching.
There always seems to be young talent in Tampa Bay. What rookie (or player with limited major league time) will make the most impact this year?
Curtis Mead and Taj Bradley impressed Rays manager Kevin Cash in Spring Training, and it would be conceivable for them to, at the very least, come up for a cup of coffee this season. Yet, knowing the Rays, that will be dependent upon injuries. Beyond that, Josh Lowe is primed for a bounce-back season after an up-and-down 2022 campaign. Look for Wander Franco to put up solid numbers in 2023. Franco is projected by Steamer to perform to a solid .287 BA/.349 OBP/.448 SLG/.797 OPS/.346 wOBA slash line across 144 games, with a 132 wRC+, after appearing in just 83 games a season ago. Franco entered Spring Training healthy and lean, and the Rays are better for it.
What’s the best case, worst case, and most likely scenario on how 2023 plays out?
The best-case scenario would be for Tampa Bay to win it all, while the worst-case scenario would be for the team to miss the playoffs entirely. The most likely scenario would be for the Rays to reach the postseason for a franchise-high fifth year in a row, then see where they can go from there.