Every Spring, the St. Louis centric Cardinals Conclave sends out a questionnaire to bloggers across the league seeking their expectations for the forthcoming season. It just so happens that they reached out to us once again … I know what you’re thinking, “God knows why.” Seriously, we’re about as informed as Jim Bowden. Whatever the case, we joined Mat Germain (In the Tank) and Danny Russell (DRaysBay), and answered eight questions about the 2021 Rays, some of which you can read below.
Out of respect for Cardinals Conclave, I will only repost their questions and our answers. That being said, I encourage you highly to check out the piece, titled Playing Pepper 2021: Tampa Bay Rays, via this link.
C70: Baseball in 2020 was like nothing we’ve ever seen before. What are your thoughts on that season? Did you like the rule changes? How was following baseball the same or different during the pandemic?
As a baseball fan in general, the truncated season offered a brief reprieve from what otherwise was one of the weirdest years on record. And while I wasn’t able to attend any games — well in person, although my avatar/fan cutout was in attendance for most of the season and part of the playoffs — I was relatively content to see some fairly entertaining on-field action. I liked a few of the rule changes, like universal DH and seven-inning doubleheaders, although I could do without the extra-innings runner on second rule.
C70: How hard is it to see Blake Snell leave, especially after the team got so close to a title last year?
I won’t lie, it was difficult seeing Snell leave. In all fairness though, it’s difficult to see any player move elsewhere when they have been with one team for their entire career. But as difficult as it was, the return for Snell definitely softened the blow. Luis Patiño and Francisco Mejía (most notably) could positively impact the Rays in 2021, with Mejía projected to slash .245 BA/.301 OBP/.423 SLG across 271 plate appearances. If the tandem of Mike Zunino and Mejía live up to the projections, we may be looking at a backstop platoon that could pop 22 home runs and drive in 66 runs, which is far more productive than any other Tampa Bay catching platoon of the last few seasons. Snell meant a lot to the Rays, however, it would be shortsighted to give him sole credit for the Rays’ World Series appearance last season. And given that Tampa Bay has the top farm system in baseball, someone undoubtedly will be able to fill his shoes and offer them more efficient innings and better ‘time through the order’ splits.
C70: Chris Archer is back in the place where he’s had his greatest success. Can he recapture that magic?
Will 32-year-old Chris Archer be the same as 25-27-year-old Chris Archer? Likely not. After all, he lost a few ticks off his heater in recent years while his flirtation with a two-seamer and sinker in Pittsburgh proved to be disastrous. However, Archer ditched both of those offerings, developed what looks to be a quality changeup, and has looked great in Spring Training — allowing just one run across 6-2/3 innings while striking out five and walking one. His velocity has also ticked up in his most recent outings, with his fastball hitting 95 on Wednesday. But, don’t just take my word for it, Rays skipper Kevin Cash has been very complimentary of Archer’s stuff this Spring, saying,
His slider, his off-speed stuff has been outstanding all spring and the changeup has been really good too. I know that he’s worked on that and I think everybody’s feeling pretty good that it’s going to be a nice pitch to, not just to show but to use and to balance, offset with the fastball/slider combination.
— Kevin Cash
If he can avoid the third time through the order penalty, which has plagued him over his career, and outperform his projections, this could prove to be yet another in a long line of successful reclamation projects for Tampa Bay.
C70: Former Cardinal Ryan Sherriff returned to the big leagues last year after surgery. How did he look and will he have a significant role in the Rays’ bullpen?
Aside from the humor of having a Sherriff and the Outlaw, Kevin Kiermaier, on the same roster, Ryan Sherriff fared well for the Rays last season, allowing no runs across 9-2/3 innings. The .200 BABIP tends to belie those numbers though, as the southpaw was the recipient of good luck. He’s shown well this Spring, however, given that he is one of a handful of relievers battling it out for one or two bullpen spots, what role he may play this season isn’t immediately obvious.
C70: What is your expectation for this team this coming season?
I’ll put it this way, Baseball Prospectus projects the Rays to reach the postseason thanks to a second-place finish behind the Yankees, and an 87-75 record. I personally feel they are a better team than the projected record and PECOTA traditionally had a +/- six-game margin of error, so here’s to hope for a 93-69 finish to the season.
C70: Overall, what sort of grade would you give this organization and why?
In all honesty, I’d give the Rays a B. Did they address every area of need? No. Did they make unpopular trades? Yes. But in so doing, Tampa Bay was able to acquire two top-end pitchers — the aforementioned Patiño and Cole Wilcox — and an offensive catcher in Mejía for Snell; they dealt Nate Lowe to Texas for three prospects and replaced Charlie Morton (and to a large extent Snell) with Archer, left-hander Rich Hill, and right-handers Michael Wacha and Collin McHugh. To that point, Archer, Hill, Wacha, and McHugh will make a combined $13.8-Million — $1.2-Million under what Atlanta handed out for Morton.
The Rays will undoubtedly miss Snell and Morton, yet they’ll figure out a way to get the most out of their reclamation projects … and they still have the best farm system in baseball which they’ll lean on for depth this season.
Noteworthiness
— Ever wondered what that turd from Blink 182, Tom DeLonge, thinks about the upcoming baseball season? Yeah…me neither. Bad question. Okay, okay, how about Julian Casablancas of the Strokes, Steve Earle, James Bowman of Against Me!, Dicky Barrett of the Mighty Mighty Bosstones, and King Buzzo of the Melvins? If so, Spin Magazine just printed a piece titled “62 Musicians Predict the 2021 Baseball Season,” which you can read about here.