Yup, last night sucked. The Rays had ample opportunity to beat up on the Red Sox, yet they squandered those chances. Tonight the good guys will take on Clay Buchholz (8-2, 5.53 ERA). For the life of me, I still cannot figure out how a five-plus ERA pitcher has an 8-2 record. Oh wait, yes I can. Buchholz has been able to depend on run support to keep his head above water in a lackluster 2012 season.
Fact: He’s given up four or more runs in nine of his 14 starts. Fact: Buchholz is averaging just over six innings per start. Fact: In seven of those starts where Buchholz has given up four or more runs, the Red Sox have scored five or more runs.
All of this is to say that an 8-2 record can be deceiving. Make no mistake, I don’t mean to take anything away from good old Clay because he can be good. But, the Rays will counter with David Price, and if anyone is capable of suppressing the Red Sox bats, it’s he.
The Rays hitters have posted a .266 BA/.361 OBP/.388 SLG/.749 OPS against Clay, including a gang of players that have put up good numbers against Buchholz in years past. The key to Buchholz is patience (that means you ‘Los, Luke, and BJ) at the plate. Opponents have as posted a 1.093 OPS against Buccholz when they’re ahead in the count. That mark drops to .681 when they fall behind. A caveat, Buchholz has allowed more home runs when he’s ahead (6) than when he’s behind (4). You can see his splits by the count below.
When all is said and done, I could Frankly care less if he gives up a tater, as long as the Rays do what they do best when they’re on: take advantage of weaknesses. It won’t be easy, Buchholz was 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts before landing on the DL, and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA in six starts at Tampa Bay.
Rays 7/14/12 Starting Lineup:
TBA
Johnson SS
Pena 1B
Zobrist RF
Upton CF
Scott DH
Keppinger 3B
Jennings LF
Molina C
Rodriguez 2B
Price LHP