X-Rays Spex – Page 635 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

MLB to Announce Wildcard Playoff Expansion

There has been a lot of speculation since the end of the winter CBA meetings late last year, if the new playoff format will come into play this season or next. All of the lingering questions can be put to rest, because Major League Baseball is set to announce that playoff expansion is slated to start this year, not in 2013. That announcement should come sometime today.

Official details have yet to be released, however it is believed that there will be a one game playoff between the two wild-card teams, which will determine who will face one of the three division champions in the ALDS. Could this be a good thing? The players seem to think so.

According to the Heater Blog, Rays third baseman, Evan Longoria, said of the change,

“It’s exciting for all of us. … I think the goal was to allow more teams to have a chance in the end, to hold on to those playoff hopes for longer.” He went on to say, “I think it was pretty unanimous around the league that the more playoff spots the better,” he said. “Once you get into the playoffs it’s more revenue for the ballclub, it’s more excitement for the players, so I think it would be a no-brainer for everybody.”

Though, there is some trepidation over the one game do-or-die playoff format.

“I wouldn’t mind two out of three, but at least it gives you a shot to get in,” RHP James Shields said.”

Shields sentiment seems to be shared with many others that would have liked to have seen a best of three series. And for better or worse, a one game format effectively forces teams to win their divisions if they have any hopes of staying in the playoffs for the duration. But when you take into consideration all of the positives that this new format presents, it’s not hard to conclude that his could potentially turn out to be a better, fairer, system…at least for smaller market teams like the Rays and Brewers, or for teams that seemingly got the short end of the stick last season.

Carlos Pena On His Return to the Rays and Maddon on Pena (Video)

Here are a couple of videos from Port Charlotte of Rays first baseman, Carlos Pena, on returning to the Rays, and Joe Maddon on Los’ return. The first video comes courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times “Heater Blog“. I know, it doesn’t have all of the panache of the video of him signing a taco. It is, however, nice to see and hear the statements of a player who genuinely loves the Rays organization; a player who doesn’t just sign with another team for the promise of big money, even though that organization is very vocal about not seeing a reason for him being around (cough, take your pick or either Soriano or Crawford on that one).

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Links For Finks

The Times has published a few, very pertinent, articles of late. These articles, by in large, should be read if they haven’t been. They’re linked below.

Tampa Bay Rays owner Stuart Sternberg ‘pretty certain’ area can be viable long term But Schmitty, you said (as per their meeting) that Stu and Bill Foster came to an understanding, and Sternberg wasn’t looking for a new stadium, even though the mayor put that option on the table?! Yeah well, both sides are prone to hyperbole, now aren’t they? Sternnerg of Tropicana Field,

“Something’s not working, we’ve got to figure something out,” Sternberg said. “This can’t go on for decades. It’s clearly going to go on for years. Here we are in 2012, and we keep winning – the most important thing. The reason why you want more revenue is to give yourself a better opportunity to compete. We are competing without the revenue. That is not an endless cycle.”

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Tampa Bay Rays have many options in backup catcher battle OK I’ll admit it, my initial assumption was wrong. There, I said it…happy now? I may have been wrong about the Rays re-signing Shoppach on the cheap, and platooning the catching position between he and Jose Molina. Then again, I wasn’t that far off of the mark when you consider that there are now three catchers battling it out for a spot on the roster, including 29-year-old, Chris Gimenez. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos need more time in AAA before they’re seen as viable long term catching options on the roster. They’re going to have to prove themselves, in kind, during spring training if they’re to be in the dugout April 6th.

Tampa Bay Rays’ Matt Moore likely to miss second live batting practice session Damned abdominal strains! Let’s hope this is nowhere near as debilitating to the Rays, as Longoria’s strains last season. As Topkin see’s it,

“Tampa Bay Rays lefthander Matt Moore (lower abdominal strain) is feeling better, but not enough to where he will throw today, and admits he’ll likely miss his second scheduled live batting practice session Wednesday,” and “Moore said if he does throw Wednesday, it’ll be to play catch.”

Here’s to hope that this clears up soon.

MLB 411 Positional Rankings

MLB 411 released their 2012 positional rankings today. Five of the Rays made the list: Ben Zobrist (5th best second baseman), Desmond Jennings (13th best outfielder), Evan Longoria (2nd best third baseman), David Price (11th best starting pitcher), and James Shields (honorable mention). You can see the complete list below.

CATCHER

1. Carlos Santana
2. Mike Napoli
3. Brian McCann
4. Miguel Montero
5. Buster Posey
6. Alex Avila
7. Matt Wieters
8. Joe Mauer
9. Yadier Molina
10. Russell Martin

Honorable Mentions: Wilson Ramos, J.P. Arencibia, Geovany Soto

FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Joey Votto
5. Prince Fielder
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Paul Konerko
9. Lance Berkman
10. Michael Morse

Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman

SECOND BASE

1. Robinson Cano
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Dan Uggla
5. Ben Zobrist
6. Chase Utley
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Brandon Phillips
9. Howard Kendrick
10. Jason Kipnis

Honorable Mentions: Dustin Ackley, Ryan Roberts, Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa

SHORTSTOP

1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes
4. Starlin Castro
5. Elvis Andrus
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Alexei Ramirez
9. J.J. Hardy
10. Derek Jeter

Honorable Mentions: Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar

THIRD BASE

1. Jose Bautista
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adrian Beltre
4. David Wright
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Brett Lawrie
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Michael Young
10. Kevin Youkilis

Honorable Mentions: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds

OUTFIELD

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Justin Upton
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Curtis Granderson
7. Andrew McCutchen
8. Mike Stanton
9. Matt Holliday
10. Hunter Pence
11. Jay Bruce
12. Josh Hamilton
13. Desmond Jennings
14. Michael Bourn
15. Nelson Cruz

Honorable Mentions: Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Shane Victorino

STARTING PITCHER

1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Cliff Lee
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Felix Hernandez
7. CC Sabathia
8. Jered Weaver
9. Cole Hamels
10. Dan Haren
11. David Price
12. Matt Cain
13. Jon Lester
14. Zack Greinke
15. Yovani Gallardo

Honorable Mentions: Ricky Romero, James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Madison Bumgarner

RELIEF PITCHER

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. John Axford
5. Drew Storen
6. Heath Bell
7. Jose Valverde
8. Brian Wilson
9. Joel Hanrahan
10. Ryan Madson

2012 Rays Projections (Varied Sources)

Since this piece is a working document of sorts, I’ve decided to change things up a bit from what it was starting back at the end of January. I’ve now broken this piece up by the sources that have created any of the projections below. I will continue to add more projections as they become available, or I see fit. With all of that said, I present to you some 2012 Rays Projections.

Baseball Think Factory 2012 Zips Projections

The folks over at the Baseball Think Factory have released their 2012 ZiPS Projections (computer-based projections of performance) for the Rays. They predict that Evan Longoria will be the overwhelming offensive producer, followed by Ben Zobrist and BJ Upton. Interestingly enough, they also predict that Bossman Jr. will have another 150+ strikeout season. You can check out the projected numbers above and more here: 2012 ZiPS Projections

Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA Projections

Unfortunately, without a subscription to the prospectus, I wasn’t privy to much information regarding this years PECOTA projections. Luckily the folks at DRaysBay created a couple of easy to read tables of those projections, which I’ve included below.

In the end, I feel like the PECOTA projections are a bit closer to the mark than some of the other projections and power rankings that I’ve seen. Note, I don’t think that Joyce or Pena will have a .25 and .22 BA this season. I’d imagine that the fine folks that made the chart may have left a digit or two off. I’ll keep adding to this piece as I cull up more projections. I’ve got to do something to bide my time between now and spring training.

Screen Shot 2012-02-09 at 5.36.26 PM — Rays 2012 offensive projections courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and DRaysBay

Screen Shot 2012-02-09 at 5.40.12 PM — Rays 2012 pitching projections courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and DRaysBay

MLB Fantasy 411 Composite Projections

Cory Schwartz of MLB 411 collected projections from the best systems and compiled them into one set of composite projections, which are below. As he explains it,

“Keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.”

Well, that’s good enough for me.