Catching woes, 4/22/12 starting lineup, etc.

According to Rays beat writer Marc Topkin, the Rays need some serious help behind the plate. Because of it, they may be in the market for another catcher. According to me, duh. Odds are they’ll be looking later not sooner though. A lot of that will be predicated on how strongly Lobaton comes back next month when he’s expected to come off the DL. Honestly, who didn’t see this coming? This is a position the Rays have been in since the days of Navi.

Tampa Bays pitchers have had issues early, yet just how much can be attributed to the catchers is unknown. One thing is fairly obvious: with concern to Jose Molina, the pitchers have to adjust to him, not vice versa. Could the way Molina sets up (the angle and positioning behind the plate) have had some effect of both the starting rotation and the pen, and their early pitching woes? Joe Maddon seems to think “it might”. One thing is obvious. Molina has made a great many mound visits so far, and it seems obvious that there’s some disconnect there.

Ironically, MLB Trade Rumors posted this morning that the Rays might be interested in using Wade Davis as trade bait at some point this season. Though they quoted (below) a National League scout as saying the pen could use another piece, insinuating that perhaps Davis would be used in a trade for another arm in the bullpen, I’d have to wonder if the same would be true in the search for a catcher.

If the Rays pitching is clicking as expected, Wade Davis will be trade bait at some point this season.  So far though, in his current role as long man, scouts love what they see.
A longtime National League scout who has been keeping an eye on the Rays this season says that the club could use another bullpen piece.

Who could be available at some point this season? Topkin thinks A.J. Pierzynski of the White Sox, Geovany Soto of the Cubs and Kurt Suzuki of the A’s. Personally, I like the thought of having Soto behind the plate. He’s good defensively, has the power to hit 20 homers, and is fairly cheap. That’s neither here nor now though.

Meanwhile, both Jeff Niemann and Francisco Liriano will continue their hunt for their first victory of the season, today. Liriano (0-2, 11.91 ERA) has given up 17 runs (15 earned) in 11.1 innings so far this season. He’s walked nine, struck out eight, and the opposing batters are hitting .407 off of him. Tampa Bay will presumably be entering today’s game with the mindset of hitting Liriano hard and early, forcing Ron Gardenhire to lean on his beleaguered pen. On the flip side, NIemann (0-2, 4.5 ERA) hasn’t really performed as well as he could, giving up eight runs (five earned) on seven hits and three walks, including two home runs. To his credit, Niemann has struck out 11 in 10 innings of work. Niemann has had progressively better outings since spring training. I still contend that Maddon pulling him after only 87 pitches the other night against the Jays had more to do with with Maddon playing the match-ups more than it did with a poor start. Then again, with a 7-7 record in daytime starts and a 5.50+ ERA between 2009 and now, lord knows what could happen with Niemann. The starting lineup is below. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

Tampa Bay Rays (8-7) Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF

Zobrist RF

Pena 1B

Longoria 3B

Keppinger DH

Upton CF

Rodriguez SS

Gimenez C

Johnson 2B

Niemann P

Rays win 4-1, the rubber game is tomorrow

The bad: 9 LOB, including those stranded in a bases loaded situation where Luke Scott ground into a double play.

The good: a 4-1 win which finds them 4-1 at home this season, and 14-3 in their last 17 regular season games at home…not to mention 31,000 plus in the stands for the fourth time this season!

The great: The James Shields (3-0)/Fernando Rodney (1-0, 5 saves) 1-2 punch. Shields has now given up only one run in 18 plus innings.

I’ll post more later…there are drinks to be consumed at the moment, and Blackhawks games to be watched now.

Rays vs. Twins, 4/21/12 (starting lineup included)

What a bummer of a loss last night. 14 games in to the season, and I’m growing tired of saying that the pen lost the game. I’m also growing agitated at hearing the pitching will come around. Interestingly enough, according to the Star Tribune’s La Valle Neal, the Twins had it on their scouting report that Matt Moore was tipping pitches. They looked at their video, but didn’t sense a pattern. Could Moore be tipping his pitches, and could that have something to do with is lukewarm start?

To be fair to the pitching staff, the offense certainly didn’t blow the lid off of the Trop last night. The Rays hitters scored a paltry four runs in nine innings of play.

I’ve got to give credit where credit is due. Ron Gardenhire and Liam Hendricks surely did their homework. The Rays are primarily a fastball hitting team, and Hendricks is, for the most part, a fastball pitcher with average velocity.

Courtesy of Fangraphs.

Yet Hendricks really leaned on his secondary pitches last night, ultimately throwing the Rays batters off. Hendricks only allowed two base runners (a Matt Joyce single and an Evan Longoria walk) into the fifth inning, not including the Matt Joyce fifth inning home run. It wasn’t until the three-run sixth inning when they Rays incurred the bulk of their damage. Even then, Tampa Bay would only have one other base runner after the sixth, coming in the bottom of the eighth off of a Burton walk to Ben Zobrist.

Percentage of pitches thrown by Twins starter, Liam Hendricks. Table courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

The Rays will go into game two of this three game series with a 7-7 record. They need to take the next two games so they can go into next weeks series against a very good, yet somewhat slumping, Angels. Tampa Bay’s ace James Shields (2-0, 3.38 ERA) will toe the rubber opposite of Carl Pavano (1-1, 5.23 ERA) in tonight’s game.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

ZiPS projected that Pavano would have a .292 OBA in 2012, and he’s well on his way to that. With an 89-90 MPH fastball that he depends on 60% of the time, the Rays ideally should be able to touch him for a few. Then again he’s coming off of a big win against the Yankees, so you never know. Tonight’s starting lineup is below. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

Rays (7-7) 4/21/12 starting lineup:

Jennings LF

Zobrist 2B

Pena 1B

Longoria 3B

Scott DH

Joyce RF

Upton CF

Molina C

Rodriguez SS

Shields RHP

Tentative Information on the “Below Average Rays Fan Meet-up”

We’re busy getting the ball rolling on the May 4th “A Below Average Rays Fan Meet-up” at the Trop. The details haven’t been firmed up just yet. But in short, we’re putting together a group outing on May 4th to watch the Rays take on the A’s. We’ll probably have group rate tickets in either the outfield or the TBT Party Deck, and all you’ll have to do is click a link and purchase the said tickets. Sound good to you?

The only caveat: we need at least 20 people to buy tickets in order for this to work.

Thats where you come in. We’ll be finding out more in the forthcoming days. In the meantime, start spreading the word. The more folks that know about this, the better! Questions, comments, or suggestions? Please leave them below.

Rays vs. Twinkies, 4/20/12

BJ Upton in Montgomery earlier this week during his rehab stint with the Biscuits.

The Rays come home riding a huge surge of momentum following the (cumulative) 21-6 shellacking of the Toronto Blue Jays over the last two days. Minnesota will enter the Trop for a three game set following a disappointing loss to the Yankees Thursday. There’s a lot to be excited about.

First, BJ Upton is is scheduled to return to the roster tonight, offering the Rays more speed, power, and defensive prowess. In order to make room on the roster for his imminent return, Steven Vogt will presumably be sent back to triple-A. No official word has come out on that yet. Upton stands to return to a team on an offensive upswing, after scoring 21 runs over the course of the last two games following a shift in the lineup, of sorts. Where BJ fits in the lineup at the moment is unknown.

If you’ll recall, Upton has lead off in the past with some success. In 2009 with 98 games under his belt in the number one spot, BJ had a slash line of .214 BA/.316 OBP/.372 SLG/.688 OPS/7 HR/33 SB/10 CS in 43 attempts. In 2010, Upton returned to that spot in the lineup 37 times and performed well, with a slash line of .262 BA/.367 OBP/.440 SLG/.807 OPS/5 HR/10 SB/3 CS in 15 attempts. Therein lies a big worry: BJ struck out 162 times last year, and is projected to follow the same trajectory this year. Because of the propensity to not have good at bats, I really don’t see him in the lead off spot. Could he be better suited at the bottom of the lineup, especially after the amount of damage the one-through-five hitters did to the Jays the last two days? Probably. I’d have to assume that Joe wouldn’t thrust him in a higher leverage spot this quickly after a tepid, injury filled spring and rehab stint. Nevertheless, it’ll be nice to have some stability in the OF and a bit more wiggle room on the bench with his return. We’ll just have to wait and see where Maddon lines him up when the starting lineup is released.

The acquisition of 1B/OF Brandon Allen is also quite exciting. Over the course of the last two years Allen has hit .299 with 21 homers, 72 RBIs and a .991 on-base plus slugging percentage in 93 games last season, and .261/25/86 with a .933 OPS in 107 games in 2010. Since he was acquired on waivers, he must be on kept on a major league team, or he could be snatched up by another team. How will the Rays fit him on the bench? Possibly by sending Reid Brignac back down to Durham.

Brignac has only two hits in his last 17 plate appearances, and has only played sporadically this season, coming on in the late innings at short-stop so Sean Rodriguez could take over for Jeff Keppinger at second. Plus, Elliot Johnson is a more versatile player where as Brignac is only suited for the middle infield. And with the return of Upton, we’re likely to see Ben Zobrist splitting his time at second and in right-field. That is to say there are too many hands in the infield honey pot. Plus, Johnson is out of options and the Rays would risk losing him if they sent Elliot back to triple-A on waivers. They’re not going to risk losing depth.

The possibility for Tampa Bay to come up big tonight is there. That too is a very good, and exciting. The Rays will be facing second year pitcher, Liam Hendricks. Hendricks is primarily a fastball pitcher, leaning on it 61% of the time. He has a slash line of 5.22 ERA/6.14 K per 9/1.84 BB per 9/3.33 K per BB/1.23 HR per 9. Over the course of 29 innings over five starts, Hendricks has given up 17 runs (all earned) with four home runs, including one in this young season. He has struck out 20 hitters in that time. If the Rays can get to him early, in kind with what they’ve done the last two nights, they can knock him out of the game and force the Twinkies to rely on their pen to early. Tampa Bay will need to use all of the offensive momentum accrued the last couple of nights if they’re going to continue their nine game winning streak in regular season games at home.

Young Matt Moore looks to get his first win of the year following a decent for start where he received a no-decision, and a lackluster start last week against the Red Sox. Though he denies it, word has spread of the possibility that he was tipping his pitches in that less than stellar performance. Here’s to hope that Hickey and he have worked on that prior to today. The bullpen has started to stabilize, which is wonderful. JP Howell is returning to 2008/09 form, and Joel Peralta has had some really strong performances is his last three outings. Yet with the exception of James Shields, who’s had two great consecutive starts, the rest of the starting rotation has been anything but exceptional. Moore stands to rectify things both for himself and the rotation. And it all starts tonight at 7:05.

I’d love to see Tampa Bay take at least two from the Twins, and enter next weeks series against Albert Pujols and the Angels with the momentum and confidence that it’s going to take to defeat a strong, albeit it slumping Angels team. The starting lineup will be included once it’s released. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

4/20/12 Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Zobrist 2B
Pena 1B
Longoria 3B
Scott DH
Joyce RF
Upton CF
Gimenez C
Rodriguez SS
Moore LHP