Put a fork in it…

The Rays/Orioles Series By the Numbers
  • The Orioles held the Rays to 21 scoreless innings over the course of the series, following a pair of one run homers by BJ Upton and Desmond Jennings Friday night. Ugh.
  • 0-12 wRISP, 18 LOB
  • Pena (1-8, 3 BB, 2 K), Roberts (0-9, BB, 3 K), Lobaton (0-6, 2 K), Johnson (0-6, K), Upton (3-12, HR, 2 K), Jennings (1-13, HR, 3 K), Rodriguez (0-3)
  • The Rays were shut out in back to back games for first time since September 7th and 8th of 2008 by Toronto and Boston. This was the first time they were shut out by the same opponent since April 28th and 29th of 2004 at Boston.
  • On the positive side of things, Fernando Rodney tied the Rays record for consecutive scoreless innings by a reliever at 21. That record was set by Joe Borowski, set in 2005.
  • The Rays are now 3-3 in extra inning games, following two consecutive extra inning losses to the A’s and O’s.
Updated Offensive Projections

The Rays are now three-quarters of the way through the season. Tampa Bay has now posted a team .231 BA/.313 OBP/.369 SLG/.682 OPS line, and are ranked third from the bottom in offensive production, ahead only of Seattle and Oakland. Gross. The Rays have been forced to depend on a handful of players to keep them (relatively) afloat in 2012. Unfortunately a few of those players have under performed even most conservative projections. What could be the projected offensive output of Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, and Luke Scott look like if they continue down a similar trajectory? Let’s see.

  • Carlos Pena has had a pretty disappointing year to say the least. If he continues at his torrid pace (I kid), we’re looking at a Pena that scores 86 runs, gets 113 hits with 23 home runs and doubles, drives in 69 runs, walks 96 times, and strikes out 201 times. That’s well under last years numbers…well, with the exception of strikeouts. Ouch.
  • Let’s be honest, BJ Upton hasn’t really torn the cover off the baseball this year. As streaky as he is, he can still be depended upon…at least when he on one of his offensive upswing’s. Upton could end the year scoring 63 runs on 130 hits, with 15 home runs and 24 doubles. All this while only driving in 60 runs, walking 48 times, and striking out 156 times. Upton is in line to have fewer extra base hits, runs, runs batted in, and walks than he did in 2011.
  • I love Desmond Jennings, and I feel like he’s going to be an asset in the manner as Carl Crawford when he get’s everything sorted out. Jennings has unfortunately had some inconsistent at bats, while having what could be construed as an unrefined approach at the plate. We’re potentially looking at 67 runs on 111 hits, with 12 home runs, 17 doubles, and five triples. Jennings is projected to end the season with 47 RBI, 41 walks, and 105 strikeouts if things don’t shape up. Granted Jennings has out produced the DesJen of 2011. Then again, he’s had more at bats than he did in all of last season, and his offensive slash line is down across the board.
  • Oh Luke Scott, how endearing your multiple stints on the DL have become. Regardless of the state of Scott’s health, he’s had a fairly un-Luke like year. Luke’s on pace to score 39 times on the back of 82 hits, including 18 home runs, 20 doubles, and two triples. He also stands to drive in 68 runs, while walking 21 times, and striking out 86 times.

Looking backward while moving forward, Rays vs Orioles 8/5/12 (starting lineup included)

ST. PETERSBURG – AUGUST 04: Outfielder Sam Fuld #5 of the Tampa Bay Rays catches a fly ball against the Baltimore Orioles during the game at Tropicana Field on August 4, 2012 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

A short post today because I’m hungover. The Rays look to turn their fortunes around after getting shutout 4-0 by a masterful Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. The big O didn’t look so hot last night. The Rays hitters reached base safely eight times, yet they squandered every scoring opportunity they had. Let’s look at things a bit.

  • Five Rays went 0-fer last night: Will Rhymes (0-1), Ryan Roberts (0-3), Sean Rodriguez (0-3), Carlos Pena (0-3, BB), and Desmond Jennings (0-4). Hey Pena, Roberts, SeanRod, etc. I’m not sure if you knew this, but you’re in the middle and back end of the lineup to drive in runs. You can’t drive in runs if you don’t get a hit!
  • Everyone in the lineup last night, with the exception of Jose Molina and Will Rhymes, had an opportunity to move runners over, or drive in runs. They however didn’t. Hey, at least Upton, Zobrist, Keppinger, Fuld, and Molina did their jobs by getting on base.
  • Sam Fuld made web gem numero tres last night. Will Rhymes came in number five, however he get web gemmed.
  • Pitching pitching pitching…JP Howell, Burke Badenhop, and Wade Davis gave up only two hits while striking out eight and walking none in their five combined innings of work.

Tampa Bay looks to bounce back in the rubber match of this three game series with David Price on the mound. Get it? Bounce back…rubber match! Is this thing on? Ahem.

Anyway, what better person is there to toe the rubber today than David Price? The Orioles have posted a combined .232 BA/.277 OBP/.330 SLG/.607 OPS line against Price in 203 career at-bats, with only 14 extra base hits including just two home runs. He, on the other hand, has struck out 64 of those batters, while walking 14.

Rays 8/15/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Joyce RF
Zobrist 2B
Keppinger DH
Pena 1B
Roberts 3B
Lobaton C
Johnson SS
Price LHP

Noteworthiness:  Yes, the mayor and city council have kept their conversations, with concern to the stadium debate, under wraps. While Hillsborough county business leaders and elected officials have played the part of carpetbagger by openly courting the Rays, the efforts in trying to save the Rays by business leaders and elected officials on this side of the bay have gone largely unnoticed by the local media outlets in this area. When is that narrative going to change?

Looking backward while moving forward, Rays vs. Orioles 8/4/12 (starting lineup included)

Elliot Johnson tags out Omar Quintanilla in an attempted steal, in the second inning. (courtesy of Edmund Fountain/Tampa Bay Times)

The Rays walked into the Trop last night having won six out of their last ten games, including two out of three in their last series against the Orioles. They walked away with sole ownership of second place in the East, only a half game out of the second wildcard spot. With the win, Tampa Bay is now six games over .500, with a 56-50 record. The pitching staff was able to dish out their fourth shutout in six games. It may not have been the prettiest win, however a win is a win is a win. Powered by the pitching staff and the defense behind them, The Rays took game one of the three game set against the O’s, 2-0. Let’s break down the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The Good
  • You could call the Zobrist sandwich, with Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist, and Carlos Pena hitting 3-4-5 in the lineup, a success. Joyce (1-3, single, walk) and Zobrist (2-3, two singles) each reached base safely twice. They set up a potentially big sixth inning on a walk and a single, bringing Pena to the plate. Pena hit the ball deep to center, but was robbed of extra bases, and a pair of runs batted in, by Adam Jones who made an excellent catch to send ‘Los back to the dugout.
  • BJ Upton (1-4, homer) hit his 100th career homer. Upton put the Rays ahead on a fourth-inning 425 foot blast to center off Tommy Hunter (4-7). Upton joins Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Cesar Cedeno, Lloyd Moseby, Eric Davis and Hanley Ramirez as the only players to amass 100 homers and 200 steals before age 28. Fun fact: Justin Upton also hit his 100th career homer earlier in the night at Philadelphia. The Upton brothers both hit their 99th homers during games on July 20.
  • In the sixth inning, Desmond Jennings (1-4, homer) went yard for the eighth time this season. Fun fact: four of those eight homers have been hit to left field at the Trop, landing in section 141/143, missing me by a mere few feet. I know, I’m a regular walking talking scatter plot of DesJen.
  • Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Matt Moore and the pen combined for an eight hit, three walk, 11 strikeout shutout. The Rays now have 11 shutouts on the year.
The Bad
  • Five Rays went 0-fer; Sam Fuld (0-1), Carlos Pena (0-3), Ryan Roberts (0-3), Jose Lobaton (0-3), and Elliot Johnson (0-3).
  • Rays DH Jeff Keppinger left the game early after turning his ankle sliding into second base. He’s reportedly (read: thankfully) okay.
The Ugly
  • Though scoring opportunities were few, the Rays could have tacked on a couple more insurance runs in the sixth, but didn’t. With two on and a runner in scoring position, neither Carlos Pena or Sam Fuld could get that pivotal base hit. To be fair though, ‘Los was robbed by Adam Jones, and I’m content with Fuld even making contact with a Daren O’Day pitch.
The New What Next

The Rays will have the chance to continue their winning streak by tacking on another win. It’s not going to be easy though. Jeremy Hellickson (6-6, 3.23 ERA) will take on Wei-Yen Chen (9-6, 3.65 ERA) in what promises to be a low scoring game.

Hellickson gave up one run and three hits in 6-1/3 innings in his last game against Chen and the Orioles on July 24. Helly then struck out five and walked none over six innings of two-hit ball Sunday in a 2-0 road victory over the Angels. Chen, on the other hand, has gone 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. The rookie left-hander allowed one unearned run and three hits while striking out a season-high (12) in 5-2/3 innings of Sunday’s 6-1 victory over Oakland.

Chen has compiled a 5.84 ERA in losing both his meetings with the Rays. Hellickson has thrived against the Orioles, going 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA over eight career starts. He’s also gone 3-1 with a 0.88 ERA in four home outings against them. Baltimore has had a hard time scoring runs at Tropicana Field in general of late, losing five of six there by a 30-10 margin. Pena, Kepp, Joyce, and Fuld have all put up good at-bats against Chen, so it goes without saying that they’ll play important roles in tonight’s game.

Rays 8/4/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist 2B
Keppinger DH
Pena 1B
Rodriguez SS
Fuld RF
Roberts 3B
Molina C
Hellickson RHP

Rays 8/3/12 Starting Lineup

Rays 8/3/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Joyce RF
Zobrist 2B
Pena 1B
Keppinger DH
Roberts 3B
Lobaton C
Johnson SS
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness: Matt Moore is 6-2 with a 3.32 ERA in his last 10 starts. According to Joe Smith of the Times, “RHP Jeff Niemann is getting ready to throw a simulated game this afternoon, which would appear to be the final step before starting a rehab assignment. He’s targeting a late-August return. Rhymes, Sam Fuld and Sean Rodriguez are going to be the hitters for Niemann today.” As always, Let’s Go Rays!

A series preview of sorts, Rays vs. Orioles

Here we go kids. The Rays will start a six game home stand tonight, with a very important three game series against the Baltimore Orioles. The good guys find themselves with a 55-50 record, five games over .500, and tied for second place in the AL East with, you guessed it, the Baltimore Orioles. Tampa Bay also finds itself in a three way tie for the last wildcard spot with the Tigers, and, you guessed it, the Baltimore Orioles. Hence the important nature of this series. I digress.

The Rays took two out of three from the Orioles a week and a half ago, so the O’s are looking for redemption. The Rays, in turn, look to assert their dominance. Tampa Bay is 5-4 in the season series thus far against Baltimore.

Below are some pieces of fat to chew on entering this important series. If the Rays take at least two out of three from the Orioles again, they’ll find themselves with sole possession of second place in the East. They could also find themselves with sole possession of the second wildcard spot, depending on whether the Tigers drop a few, and the Angels and A’s continue to sputter. All things told, this should be a very fun series!

Rays and Orioles pitching over the last thirty days.
Rays and Orioles hitting over the last thirty days, as well as splits at home and away.
It Bears Mentioning…
  • The Rays have the same record through 105 games as they did in 2011, when they made their third playoff appearance in four years. However, their chances of making the playoffs are much more in their favor this year than they were last year.
  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 in their last five games overall, 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in Moore’s last five home starts.
  • The Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 games, 28-25 at home this season, and they are 6.5 games behind the Yankees in the division. The Orioles, on the other hand, are 4-6 in their last 10 games, 30-24 on the road, and they are tied with the Rays in the division standings and the Wildcard.
  • the Rays pitching staff has an ERA of 3.49 with the starters at 3.64 and the bullpen at 3.17, where as the Orioles pitching staff has an ERA of 4.23 with the starters at 4.81 and the bullpen at 3.22.
  • Following a lackluster first half of the season, rookie LHP Matt Moore has gone 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts.
  • Utility infielder Will Rhymes Rhymes has been recalled from Triple-A Durham, filling the spot vacated by Brooks Conrad. Posting a .300 BA/.417 OBP/.550 SLG/.967 OPS line, with a homer, a triple, an RBI, four runs, and four walks, Rhymes has been a beast in the month of July. He’s also put up a .368 BA in his last 10 games. I’d love to see Wrigley or Anderson get the call, but I suspect they may be with the Rays in September when they expand the roster.
  • As DRaysBay put it, “With both Tampa Bay and Baltimore sitting 1.5 games out of the wild card, it’s fair to say that this upcoming series is the most important the two teams have ever played against each other.”
This album dominated these ears whilst writing this series preview. It should dominate your ears while reading this piece, and it should also dominate your turntable at some point thereafter. We’ll let it slide that they’re from Baltimore.
[bandcamp album=1669874977 bgcol=FFFFFF linkcol=4285BB size=venti]