X-Rays Spex

Post 10/29 updates: The Rays have chosen to exercise the options on Fernando Rodney ($2.5 MM), Jose Molina ($1.8 MM), and James Shields ($10.25 MM) contracts. However, they’ve chosen to decline Luke Scott’s $6 MM option, opting to pay him a $1 MM buyout instead. All of the moves were expected, at least tacitly.

On the subject of Luke Scott, Andrew Friedman told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he decision on Scott was primarily to maintain flexibility as they go forward filling several open spots in the lineup and not wanting to commit in any one direction yet. He said they agreed to “keep the door open” over the winter about re-signing.

It’s not hard to understand why they chose to exercise Rodney and Shields’ options. With the exception of a few blips toward the beginning of the 2012 season, Juego G was phenomenal. Too, the Rays have trade equity built in Shields. Rodney? His 0.60 ERA in 74 plus innings of work speaks for itself. In short, Fernando was lights in 2012. But exercising Jose “.223 BA with eight home runs and 32 RBI in 102 games” Molina’s $1.8 MM option may not seem as glaringly obvious.

From an offensive point of view, Molina was almost as unproductive as Rich Thompson. To be fair though, he really turned it on toward the end of the season, prior to his season ending injury. He’s also good behind the plate, standing as a quality instructor to the younger catchers on the staff. With the return of Robinson Chirinos looming, as well as the ever improving Jose Lobaton and Chris Gimenez, exercising the option on Molina gives Tampa Bay a capable backup catcher, and a quality teacher.

The Rays will now focus their attention on free agency which opens bright and early Saturday morning. We’ll continue to update this piece as news of any negotiations rises to the surface.

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With the World Series over, a somewhat tenuous part of the Hot-Stove period comes to the forefront. Andrew Friedman is about to become a very busy man, determining whose contract options should be picked up, and who should be offered a new contract with the opening of the free agent window. The Rays have a virtual laundry list of players that are either free agents or have a contract option. Tampa Bay now has until Friday to act on four players options, while the free agency window opens Saturday at 12:01 AM. The face of the 2013 Rays will be debated and scrutinized, and we should have some sort of idea of who we’ll see on the roster next season

For example, if the Rays are going to pick up Fernando Rodney or Jose Molina’s option, they have three days to do so. The Rays also have between now and Saturday to come up with an offer for someone like JP Howell or Joel Peralta, while also determining whether they’ll put together a qualifying offer to BJ Upton, which would net Tampa Bay compensatory draft picks if he chooses to sign elsewhere.

The effected players are below.

Free Agents (What they made in 2012):

Carlos Peña ($7.25 MM)
JP Howell ($1.35 MM)
Joel Peralta ($2.18 MM)
Kyle Farnsworth ($3.3 MM)
BJ Upton ($7 MM)
Jeff Keppinger ($1.53 MM)

Players with Contract Options (What they’ll make in 2013, and the likelihood that they’ll be picked up):

Fernando Rodney ($2.5 MM, all but certain)
Luke Scott ($6 MM, unlikely)
Jose Molina ($1.8 MM, likely)
James Shields ($10.25 MM, likely)

Not many of you took the opportunity to vote on who you think should be on the roster next season. Those of you that did came to a consensus of sorts; Shields, Rodney, and Keppinger should stick around. I’ve also gotten a feeling, based on many a conversation, that the Rays organization should sever its relationship with Pena, Scott, and Farnsworth. Not re-signing the aforementioned Trifecta of Mediocrity will save the organization close to $17 MM. It goes without saying that it’s almost a certainty that Upton will not accept the Rays qualifying offer, saving the Tampa Bay seven $7 MM more. The Rays still need to make a few other financially motivated moves in order to compensate the built-in and projected arbitration increases, which could will somewhere in the ballpark of $50 million. That’s not including any new acquisitions that Tampa Bay may make. After all, they still need to fill a few spots on the roster. Andrew Friedman, I envy you not.

With all of that said, unless they fail to tender the contracts of Ryan Roberts or Sean Rodriguez, I have a gut feeling that we may not see the likes of Jeff Keppinger next season. That is unless Keppinger (who’s coming off a career season) comes cheap, and the Rays do not seek a first baseman on the market. JP Howell is another player that we may not see next season. Granted his resurgent 2012 year bolstered the pen immensely, Tampa Bay has been trying to find a way to squeeze fellow LHP, Cesar Ramos, somewhere in the roster. True, Howell has been a gritty Rays-way kind of player over the course of his tenure, the kind of player Maddon likes to have around. But following a season where he posted a 3.04 ERA/4.78 FIP/.220 BAA/.250 BABIP in 50 innings of work, Howell will assuredly be seeking more money. You’ve got to ask yourself the question, will there be a significant drop-off in the bullpen with Ramos taking the place of JP? I let you answer that question on your own. Then there’s Joel Peralta.

How badly does Peralta want to return? “I wish I wasn’t a free agent. Definitely I want to be back. I’m wishing, I’m hoping, I’m praying that I can come back here. This feels like home,” he said.

Though Peralta, who will be 37 in March, would prefer a two-year deal, he is open to discussion: “I want what I deserve — I don’t want more, I don’t want less. So it’s up to them. I’m cheap. They can afford me.”

The quote above came from a Marc Topkin article that appeared in the Times on October 14. Though not re-signing Peralta wouldn’t be the death knell of the Rays bullpen, I’d be foolish to assert that he isn’t a good presence on the roster. Keep in mind though, you’ve still got Brandon Gomes waiting in the wings.

If anything, the next few days and weeks promise to be action packed, at least from a front office point of view. We’re left with making assumptions without fully knowing what the payroll will look like in 2013. But things should become a bit less cloudy in these next few days and weeks. As Topkin put it, “A most interesting off-season is ahead, indeed.” Here here.