Hot-Stove: Of Kyle Farnsworth, Luke Scott, and James Shields (Updated)

I really will mis James Shields.
I really will miss James Shields.

Update: The Rays have made the re-signing of Kyle Farnsworth official. According to MLB Trade Rumors,

Farnsworth’s contract guarantees him $1.3MM and contains another $1.3MM worth of incentives, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports


Thursday was a fairly action packed day. First we got word that MLB hates the Tampa Bay area, possibly St. Petersburg specifically. And then we heard that the Rays re-signed Kyle Farnsworth, while a deal with Luke Scott is imminent. It ended with an emotional video from former Rays starter, James Shields. Here’s what we know.

Kyle Farnsworth agreed to a one-year $1.5MM deal, with the chance to earn up to another $1.5 million in incentives. Farnsworth spent the last two seasons in the Rays pen, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.18 ERA and 25 saves in 2011. He followed that up with a 1-6 record, and a 4.00 ERA in 34 appearances in 2012. Farnsworth missed half of 2012 with an elbow strain.

The specifics on Luke Scott’s deal have not been released, though it could be assumed that he’ll make less than $5 million because the Rays previously declined Scott’s $6 million option, paying him a $1 million buyout. Scott posted a .229 BA, with 14 homers, 55 RBIs and a .724 OPS last season. He was limited to 96 games due to oblique and back injuries. It bears mentioning that he holds the franchise record for an 0-for-41 streak. Yeesh. We mentioned earlier in the week that the Rays could, conceivably, platoon the DH role. Apparently they didn’t see things in that way. If this move does anything, it’s assure that Ben Zobrist will spend the majority of his playing time in right-field with Matt Joyce moving to left, platooning with Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld.

Finally, James Shields wanted to say goodbye to Tampa Bay fans and teammates. As a means to do so, he recorded a video with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. God dammit, I’ve gotta admit that I got kind of teary eyed watching this. Dare I say that Shieldsy started to get broken up, especially toward the end? I really loved watching him pitch, and I think his impact will be felt in 2013. Let’s hope the Wil Myers deal pans out for the best.

MLB Releases A Statement on the Rays Stadium Saga

Major League Baseball issued a statement on the Rays stadium situation this afternoon. That statement is below:

The Commissioner has had conversations with Stuart Sternberg and is disappointed with the current situation in the Tampa Bay market.
The status quo is simply not sustainable. The Rays have been a model organization, averaging nearly 92 wins per year since 2008 and participating in the Postseason three times, including their inaugural World Series in 2008.
Their .565 winning percentage over the last five years is second among all American League Clubs and third in all of Major League Baseball. Last year, the 30 Major League Clubs averaged nearly 2.5 million in total attendance; the Rays, who finished with a 90-72 record, drew 1,559,681, which ranked last in the game.
The Club is an eager contributor to worthy causes in the Tampa and St. Petersburg communities
and takes pride in meeting the social responsibilities that come with being a Major League franchise. We are hopeful that the market will respond in kind to a Club that has done a marvelous job on and off the field.

We’d like to encourage you all to add your thoughts below.

Hot-Stove: Of economists, downtown Tampa, and Luke Scott (Updated)

Update: Apparently the Tampa Bay region is unfit for baseball. Technically speaking, football should be added to that list as well, but hey…that’s me. In yet another Stephen Nohlgren article (linked) Stu Sternberg was quoted as saying,

If the team can begin exploring new stadium sites soon, he said, he thought that could generate enough new corporate support and fan excitement to convince other owners that baseball “can be here for another 50 or 100 years.’

Hmm. I fail to see how the lack a of effort in recruiting corporate sponsorship from Raymond James, Progress Energy, Home Shopping Network, or any of the other St. Petersburg/Pinellas County based companies would be any different in a new location. By that line of reasoning, y’all with daughters that are Girl Scouts, should expect people to come to you for cookies. Don’t sit outside of Publix and sell them, and certainly don’t allow them to walk door to door. It’s much easier to complain about a lack of business that way. I reckon that perhaps all of the forces surrounding the Rays should make a valiant effort in righting the ship instead of sinking it. But what do I know? I just write for a blog.

Monday’s Tampa Bay Times featured a Q&A piece on Smith College professor Andrew Zimbalist, someone who has been called America’s pre-eminent sports economist. Zimbalist was asked a few questions by Tampa Bay Times staff writer Stephen Nohlgren, regarding the stadium conundrum. Zimbalist’s conclusion? A new facility should be built in Tampa.

Now before I pick apart the argument presented by Zimbalist, I will say that I agree with him on a few key points. Yes, the Rays do need (and deserve) a new stadium, and yes members of the business community should be attracted to a stadium. After all, in this day and age of bloated payrolls, corporate sponsorship of professional franchises offers another revenue stream as a means to afford the Longo’s and Price’s of the world, without having to pass along any excessive ticket costs to the average fan. This is where our opinions diverge.

Zimbalist asserts that a new facility should be built in downtown Tampa. In his opinion, downtown Tampa is the business mecca of the Tampa bay region, and:

It’s very important in today’s economics that stadiums be located as close to a business district as possible — particularly baseball, that can play six or 7 games a week. It enables the team to attract members of the business community to the stadium at the end of the work day and sell season tickets and premium seating.

Though I agree that a stadium should, ideally, be built in a business district, I believe that Zimbalist may be discounting a couple of things:

A) St. Petersburg has a fair number of Fortune 200 companies located within city limits.
B) St. Petersburg, especially areas in and around downtown, has gone through an economic revitalization of sorts.

St. Pete plays host to America II Electronics, Certegy, Danka, DTI Data, Freedom Scientific, Home Shopping Network, Humana, Payless Car Rental, Progress Energy, Raymond James Financial, Revolution Money, Schell Leather Company, Tech Data, the Times Publishing Company, and ValPac, among many others. In my opinion Zimbalist, by way of Stephen Nohlgren, gives readers the impression that Pinellas County (and St. Petersburg specifically) is a barren wasteland, devoid of any major corporations that could keep the Rays afloat on this side of the bay.

To that end, St. Petersburg has quietly gone through an economic revitalization, especially in the downtown area. Conversely, downtown Tampa has struggled, very publicly I might add, to attract businesses that would make that area a destination worth visiting. This isn’t to say that Tampa resembles the set of the Walking Dead. Rather the trajectory of revitalization between the two downtown areas are on the up and up. However St. Pete seems to be trending upward much more quickly, and organically, than Tampa.

I would also like to point out the pivot in answering the question, will the public have to pay for this? Zimbalist responds with,

In St. Petersburg, they would recover 85 acres that they could sell or lease, and they can extract things from the Rays in a negotiated solution. It would save the city in operating expenses. The citizens of Tampa might have to contribute, if that location is the solution. The citizens of St. Petersburg would be beneficiaries.

We know damn well that the public, regardless of the location, the public will be on the hook for anywhere from 60%-80% of the cost of a new stadium. Lest we forget what happened in Miami.

In the end, I am still not convinced that downtown Tampa is somehow better suited to play host to the Rays…regardless of what America’s pre-eminent sports economist has to say. I will say that a finger of criticism could, and should, be pointed at the Rays for not doing as good of a job at seeking out corporate sponsorship. Perhaps that’s something that should be done before St. Petersburg is pin-pointed as the land unfit to be the home of a major league franchise.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors reported that the Rays and Luke Scott have mutual interest in one another. A’int that grand?

The Rays and Luke Scott continue to express mutual interest in signing a new contract, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Scott has been a free agent since the end of October, when the Rays declined his $6MM option for 2013.

Hot-Stove: Rays Sign Four Players to Minor League Contracts, Extend Invites to Spring Training

 

Jamey Wright with the Dodgers in 2012
Jamey Wright with the Dodgers in 2012

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Rays have signed four players to minor league deals; outfielder Shelley Duncan and right-handed pitchers Jamey WrightJuan Sandoval, and Juan Carlos Oviedo. All four have been extended invites to Spring Training.

 

Shelley Duncan posted a .229 BA/.306 OBP/.427 SLG/.732 OPS slash line over the course of six seasons with the Indians and Yankees respectively. With a .988 fielding percentage, and a 22.4% K%/10.6% BB%, it could be assumed that Duncan represents bench depth more than anything else.

38 year-old right-handed reliever Jamey Wright saw 67.2 innings of work last season with the Dodgers, where he posted 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 1.507 WHIP. Those he faced posted a .270 BA/.350 OBP/.326 SLG/.676 OPS slash line, with Wright inducing ground balls 67.3 percent of the time. Ahem, we all know how well ground ball pitchers do with the Rays infield.

30 year-old Juan Carlos Oviedo is coming off of a post Tommy John surgery inducing injury, while appearing in only three minor league games in 2012. You may recall that Oviedo was disciplined for identity fraud prior to last season. For what it’s worth, Oviedo has a 4.34 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in seven big league seasons. Because of his injury he’ll more than likely miss the bulk of the 2013 season. Oviedo’s deal with the Rays includes an option for the 2014 season because of it.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, “Sandoval, 32, had a 2.97 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in the Mexican League last season.”

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Rays have finally announced the date of the 2013 Fan Fest which takes place at the Trop. The popular event is scheduled for Saturday, February 16th, from 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM. Admission and parking are free! You can find more information on Fan Fest here.

Hot-Stove: Of Slim Pickings in the DH/OF Market

Perhaps someone should ask Nastradamus if this is what the Rays outfield will look like in 2013.
Perhaps someone should ask Nastradamus if this is what the Rays outfield will look like in 2013.

Marc Topkin noted that the Rays, “Still need a DH. Maybe another outfielder. Conceivably both,” and “The DH spot is wide open, and a free agent seems likely, though the money, of course, will be a factor as the payroll is already in the $55 million range (plus incentives) and thus unlikely to go much higher.” With Spring Training a little more than a month away, a quick peak at the free-agent market finds slim pickings to say the least.

It’s been widely speculated that the an option for the Rays would be to re-sign the likes of Luke Scott or Delmon Young, or pick up a seasoned veteran like Jim Thome. Dan Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Lee, and injury risks like Travis Hafner and Juan Rivera have been thrown around as well. With Michael Bourn’s asking price being too high along with the Rays assumed unwillingness to trade any other players, the above mentioned free-agents might be the Rays only hope.

To be honest, I’m not certain what the answer is. Will it be to platoon the DH role, akin to what Tampa Bay did last season when the Luke Scott/Carlos Pena experiment proved to be a failure? That could be a solution. Fox example, it could keep someone like Ben Zobrist in the mix on a daily basis, assuming that he’d also be splitting his time platooning in right field and at second base. Or, is it possible that Zobrist will be spending time at second base or in right exclusively, moving Matt Joyce to left field where he’d platoon with Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld? The possibilities are wide open, yet seemingly closed.

I can tell you with a fair amount of certainty, that Luke Scott is not the answer. That boat has sailed, let him travel toward the sunset. A quick look at his advanced stats show that his strikeout percentage (K%) has been on the rise since 2009, while his walk percentage (BB%) has decreased sharply in the same span of time. What’s more, he’s not projected to be much better in 2013. Bill James projects that he’ll hit only 12 homers in a measly 277 plate appearances. I’m also inclined to believe that neither Delmon Young or Dan Johnson are the solutions to the DH conundrum. Especially not DanJo.

Luke Scott's advanced statistics from 2009 to 2012 (courtesy of Fan Graphs)
Luke Scott’s advanced statistics from 2009 to 2012 (courtesy of Fangraphs.com)

The question then begs: does Tampa Bay even need an established DH. Surprisingly, the answer might be no.

Bradley Woodrum of Fangraphs has suggested that the Rays offensive woes may not be as bad as many have made them out to be. He asserts that though the Rays only scored 697 runs in 2012 (fewer than in 2011), there is something to be said about the Rays being named 5th best offense in the AL, with concern to wRC+. He believes that the much maligned Tropicana Field should be seen as a pitchers stadium, similar to Safeco Field, O.co Coliseum, and AT&T Park.

Tropicana Field, among AL stadiums not named Safeco, has the lowest rate of homeruns per game and the second largest foul territory in the majors. And unlike stadiums such as O.co Coliseum, where the ample foul territory rests behind home plate and the corner bases, the Trop’s foul territory extends deep into the outfield.

…and

If I am making it sound like the Rays play in one of the most pitcher-friendly, hitter-mean parks in the league, then good. They do. Since 2008, the Trop has consistently ranked among the top five ballparks in suppressing run scoring, so when they plate less than 700 runs in a season, it is not necessarily a red flag.

…finally

As Dave Studeman recently noted, the Rays had one of the best run differentials in the league and under-performed to the tune of 5 wins — the gap, we should note, between them and the first-place Yankees. But since their hitters have such a high strikeout rate (21.7%) and low BABIP (.284) — both consistent trends since 2008 — pitchers with solid control and home run suppressing talent can often avoid the team’s biggest snares: drawing walks, stealing bases, and hitting homers (10th best HR-rate in 2012, 9th best since 2008).

That said, the San Francisco Giants (you know, the lil old team that won the World Series) scored only 21 more runs than the Rays in 2012. It bears mentioning that they scored fewer runs than the Cardinals, Rangers, Brewers, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox and Diamondbacks.

It’s all but certain that Wil Myers will be a Ray by July. Though his potential impact is incalculable at the moment, it can be assumed that he will have a positive effect on Tampa Bay in 2013. In the end, Myers is projected to eventually be better than BJ Upton. Then there’s Yunel Escobar.

Whatever your opinion may be, Escobar is a 103 wRC+ hitter who can improve the Rays shortstop production. He’s projected to post a .304 BABIP/.276 BA/.344 OBP/.377 SLG/.317 wOBA line in 2013, while driving in 71 RBI. It can also be assumed that Ryan Roberts will come closer to, if not exceed, his established norms with more playing time. Roberts is projected to improve across the board as it relates to BABIP, batting average, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Additionally, it’s also been projected that his K% will drop by one percentage point, while his BB% is projected to increase by two percentage points, making him an even greater asset in the lineup

I’d also contend that the Rays infield looks significantly better in 2013 than it did in 2012. Tampa Bay committed 114 errors in 2012, more than any other team in the AL. Most of those errors were attributed to an infield that struggled to come to grips with the loss of Evan Longoria and the surprisingly unreliable Carlos Pena. The Rays gave up 59 unearned runs on the backs of those 114 errors. It can argued that with a healthier, more solid infield, the number of errors and unearned runs will drop, helping the Rays in the run differential column.

This is not to say nor imply, that Tampa Bay should suspend their search for someone to fill the DH position. Jim Thome is hungry for a ring, and could be an asset to the roster because of it, especially if he can be signed on the cheap. However, potentially platooning the DH role might not be the end of the world, or the end of a Rays playoff run, in 2013.