Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The “How Good Was Hernandez Wednesday Night?!” Edition

Roberto Hernandez comes within one out of the Rays’ first complete game of the season, giving up just an unearned run in the first inning and throwing 92 pitches after lasting a combined six innings in his previous two starts. (Courtesy of Associated Press)
Roberto Hernandez comes within one out of the Rays’ first complete game of the season, giving up just an unearned run in the first inning and throwing 92 pitches after lasting a combined six innings in his previous two starts. (Courtesy of Associated Press)

A disclaimer of sorts first:

A) I’m hesitant to say that the Roberto Hernandez has proven that he’s — without a doubt — the most capable pitcher for the fifth starter position. True, he has strung together a handful of quality outings in his 11 starts. Though those outings have not been consistent, his previous two outings speak to that. Then again, Hellickson hasn’t looked too great either. I digress. It was an excellent confidence builder — and a blue print of sorts — for what his future starts could and should look like. If he is able to put together a slew of consistent outings, I’d be more than happy to see him pitch every five days.

B) It would be safe to say that Hernandez was bit lucky Wednesday night. The Marlins did hit a handful of hard hit balls, ones that could have fallen for hits. Some of those could also have turned into home runs had they been hit in a different facility (see hits in Coors Field), or hit with more backspin. Thankfully the outfielders — Matt Joyce especially — did an outstanding job in the field.

On with the show.

Simply put, Roberto Hernandez was stellar in the Rays 3-1 win against the Marlins Wednesday night. Posting an excellent 8.2 IP/3 H/1 R/0 ER/0 BB/5 K slash line, Hernandez went 22-for-28 in first pitch strikes, induced 12 groundouts and nine fly-outs, and at one point retired 15 consecutive batters (26 out of 27) — all on 92 pitches.

Hernandez mixed his pitches well, throwing his slider 22 times (24%), producing 16 strikes and two whiffs. He was also effective with his sinker and changeup, throwing each pitch for strikes over 70% of the time. As Ian Malinowski of DRaysBay noted,

Over the course of his career, he’s only thrown his slider 12% of the time and 2013 has been in line with those career numbers. Now I’ve been a pretty big Hernandez fan this year, but I didn’t see this coming as a way for him to succeed. I’ve noted that he’s found success by throwing more good changeups and by locating a front-door sinker to lefties. But his slider is an inferior pitch to his other two. I suppose sometimes you have an unusually good feel for a pitch, and in this age of highly detailed advanced scouting it pays to be unpredictable.

This was his longest start since August 17, 2011, back when he was known as Fausto Carmona and pitched for the Indians. It was also his first road win since that outing. If history speaks to anything, this could very well be the start of something very good.

The New What Next

Tampa Bay enters the final game of the Citrus Series four games over .500 for the first time this season. Matt Moore was initially scheduled to start against Ricky Nolasco, however a fingernail issue with Alex Cobb found a starting rotation in flux. The recently recalled Alex Colome will get the start Thursday, while Matt Moore will get the start against the Indians Friday. A pitcher to be determined — either Alex Torres or Chris Archer — will start Saturday.

So who is Colome? In short, he is a very good pitcher that has a very good fastball and three other outstanding secondary pitches. Per Ian Malinowski,

Scouting reports agree that he has a blazing mid 90s fastball, an impressive, high 80s to low 90s cutter/slider that may now be his second best pitch (Sobsey thinks so, and he’s probably the authority, seeing him most often), a curve, and a change. Previously, the curve ball was the pitch everyone was raving about, but it’s fallen off, or at least is used less frequently. The scouting reports I’ve seen mention Colome’s changeup almost as an afterthought (although Sobsey does say it has 10 mph of separation from the fastball), but before yesterday’s broadcast, Colome stated that the biggest difference for him this season was that Joel Peralta had worked with him in spring training and helped him learn to throw his changeup for strikes. It’s nice to see that even with James Shields gone, the Rays still have someone on staff preaching the change to the young’uns.

This should be an interesting game to say the least.

Rays 5/30/13 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Joyce RF
Johnson LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Escoabr SS
Molina C
Colome SP

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Win 7-6 In Walk-off Fashion

Don't let my unsteady hand detract from the message.
Never mind the unsteady hand,this guy has an important message to convey.

One thing was evident upon entering the 2013 Citrus Series: The Rays needed to beat the Marlins. Without going into the why’s (editors note: I think the “why’s” are fairly obvious), the Rays have been successful thus far, snagging the first two games away from the Fish, while ending their most recent home-stand with a 3-2 record. The second half of the Citrus Series begins Wednesday at Carnival Cruise Lines Field…urm, Marlins Park.

Another series imperative — Jeremy Hellickson needed to post a strong performance. But as fate would have it, a solid outing was not in the cards. Thankfully, the Rays were able to come from behind — not once, but twice — Wednesday night, winning by a 7-6 score. Simply put, though he was downright whiffy with the change (80% for strikes, 9 whiffs) Hellickson was not good. Posting an inefficient 5.1 IP/7 H/5 R/5 ER/1 BB/3 K slash line, The Nibbler struck again, getting hammered especially hard in a 35 pitch, three run, third inning. Where Hellickson faltered, the bullpen and the offense did not. Jamey Wright, Joel Peralta, and Fernando Rodney came on in relief of Hellickson, putting together 3-2/3 innings of three hit, one-run ball. Jamey Wright and Fernando Rodney looked particularly good.

Wright came into the game with one out in the sixth inning, quickly getting a ground-out and a strikeout to end the inning. He came back out in the seventh inning and induced a pair of ground-outs to short, before giving up a single to Placido Polanco. But before the Marlins could even mentally process the hope for a two-out rally, Wright got Derek Dietrich to ground out the third. The much maligned Fernando Rodney came on in the ninth and looked, well, dominant. Not shying away from contact, the Rays closer returned to form, culling two quick ground-outs before getting Polanco to strike out swinging to end the game — all this on 14 pitches.

Though Hellickson found the Rays down by four runs early, the offense consistently kept the pressure on the Marlins, inevitably winning in walk-off fashion. It all started in the third inning when Jose Lobaton beat out Dietrich’s throw on a ground ball up the middle. After loading the bases, Matt Joyce hit a sac fly to left-field which scored Lobaton. Kelly Johnson followed that up with a one run double to deep center, plating Yunel Escobar. Down by two in the fourth, Desmond Jennings and Escobar went back-to-back with a pair of doubles, inevitably scoring Jennings and bringing the Rays within a run of the Marlins.

Coghlan would extend the Marlins lead in the sixth on a solo shot down the left-field line, but Tampa Bay would knot things up on a two-run Jose Lobaton double to deep right, driving in Luke Scott and Desmond Jennings — who reached on a double and a walk respectively. The Fish would take the lead once more in the eighth. As DRaysBay’s Daniel Russell notes,

Things got dramatic with two outs. On his seventeenth pitch, Peralta’s lone base runner took off for third on a ball bouncing off the plate on a wild pitch. Lobaton found the ball on rolling and fired to Longo who dropped to intercept the runner and the ball on a low throw. Ozma collided with Longo in a face first slide, and the ball broke loose. Dobbs followed with a single through the left side that Longo couldn’t reach while guarding third base.

But the run not go unanswered by the Rays. After Luke Scott dropped a one-out single to center, Desmond Jennings moved Scott over to second on a single through the left side. Yunel Escobar came through with another big hit, sending a single up the right side, scoring Scott and tying the game at six apiece.

With the game on the verge of going into extra innings, the red hot Kelly Johnson came to the plate in the ninth and promptly legged out an infield single that Marlins reliever Mike Dunn tried to field bare handed. Evan Longoria came to the plate next and sent a nasty slider up the left-field line. Dunn’s night would be done after getting James Loney to strikeout, and Luke Scott to fly out to left. Former Ray Chad Qualls came on to face Desmond Jennings and threw a 95 MPH first pitch fastball over the plate for a strike. But Qualls got greedy and threw the same exact pitch twice. Jennings made him pay, sending a shot up the right-field line, scoring Kelly Johnson for the game winning run.

If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times, walk-offs are fun when you’re on the right side of history.

The New What Next

The Rays head down to Miami for a pair of games, where Roberto Hernandez and Tom Koehler will butt heads in the third game of the Citrus Series. Unfounded rumors have swirled of late, about the potentiality this being Hernandez’s last appearance as a starter if he cannot put together a good outing. Again, those rumors are unfounded, so who knows? You can read more on the match-up here. We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 5/29/13 Starting Lineup

Zobrist 2B
Joyce RF
Johnson LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Escobar SS
Molina C
Hernandez RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Jake Odorizzi has been optioned back to Triple-A Durham. And though he had a pretty bad outing Monday, the move had more to do with bolstering the bullpen, at least for the time being. The pen has thrown 8-1/3 innings the past two games, with RHP Joel Peralta appearing in four straight games. The Rays have announced that Alex Colome has been recalled from Durham. Colome is on his day to start, so he gives the Rays the extra arm they need, especially with Hernandez starting tonight. Per Topkin, Saturday’s starter will be either LHP Alex Torres or RHP Chris Archer.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Kelly Johnson Leads the Way to A 10-6 Win Sunday

Photo courtesy of the X-Rays Spex Instagram page
Photo courtesy of the X-Rays Spex Instagram page

Tampa Bay won the first game of a four game set against the Marlins Monday by a score of 10-6, in what could be construed as a (relatively) poorly pitched outing — at least as it related to Jake Odorizzi and Josh Lueke. The Rays persevered though, thanks to Kelly Johnson who had a huge two-homer, six RBI, day at the plate.

You’d never know that the Marlins are a team starved for runs by the way they smacked Odorizzi and Lueke around. Odorizzi couldn’t make it through the fifth inning, and was subsequently pulled in favor of Josh Lueke after allowing nine base runners (on eight hits, one walk, and two HBP) and six earned runs over the course of four plus innings. Odorizzi was able to throw his fastball, curveball, and changeup for strikes, though he left too may hittable fastballs in the zone and got punished in doing so. To be fair, Lueke came into a sticky bases loaded situation with no outs, and it would have been next to impossible for Lueke to get out of things completely unscathed. However, that he only gave up three runs seemed to be a minor miracle.

Jake McGee and Joel Peralta followed Lueke, combining for three scoreless innings of one hit ball. In contrast to some of his earlier outings, McGee looked particularly good. As Steve Slowinski of DRaysBay noted, “His (McGee) location still wasn’t perfect, but it was considerably better and he even mixed in four sliders.” McGee ultimately got the win after putting together a 23 pitch (16 for strikes) two inning outing, setting up Peralta well.

Rodney came on to close things out  in the ninth. I certainly wouldn’t say that he looked like the arrow-shooting Rodney of 2012 after a 21 pitch (11 for strikes) outing, though he showed signs of getting closer to his dominant form. Rodney used his changeup effectively, accruing a pair of strikeouts to end the game. I’m still waiting for the day that Fernando is able to string together more than two consecutive 1-2-3 outings.

The real story of the game surrounded Kelly Johnson, or as I like to call him The Rays Offense. Johnson ended the day with a pair of three-run homers (a second inning  blast to right, and an eighth inning missile to right-center) and six runs batted in. Kelly also hit a single and a double in between homers, coming within a mere triple of hitting for the cycle. Johnson met — or tied — a number of records Sunday:

  • One of three Rays to hit two homers HR and accrue six-plus RBI in a game. The other two: Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.
  • The first Ray with six or more RBI in single game since Ben Zobrist on 4/28/11 in Minnesota.
  • The sixth Ray to have 11 total bases in a single game. The others: Longoria, Upton, Fuld, Baldelli & Gomes.
  • The first player in Rays history with two three-run homers in a game.

Per Jason Collette,

“Kelly Johnson now hitting .355/.388/.724 in the month of May with 7 HR, 24 RBI in 82 plate appearances.”

The New What Next

Jeremy Hellickson will try to string together his second straight quality start, against Kevin Slowey and the Miami Marlins. You can read about tonight’s pitching match-up here.

Rays 5/28/13 Starting Lineup

1. Ben Zobrist 2B
2. Matt Joyce RF
3. Kelly Johnson LF
4. Evan Longoria 3B
5. James Loney 1B
6. Luke Scott DH
7. Desmond Jennings CF
8. Jose Lobaton C
9. Yunel Escobar SS
SP Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Per Steve Slowinski,

As Tommy Rancel recently noted over at ESPN’s SweetSpot blog, Johnson has adopted a new stance this year and is being more selective in which pitches he swings at, and the early results have paid off. As of right now, he has 10 home runs and a .394 wOBA, second on the team behind Evan Longoria.

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Salvage A Game Against the Yankees, Welcome In That Other Team From Florida

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Tampa Bay was able to salvage the third game of the three game set against the Bronx Bummers Sunday, following a seven run, seven hit Shellacking of Grimmace and the New York Yankees, handily winning by an 8-3 score. The five-through-nine hitters impressively accounted for most of the Rays offense, combining to go 5-for-12 against CC, while driving in seven of the Rays eight runs.

James Loney tagged Grimmace for a two-run blast to right-center, while Sean Rodriguez also went yard against the swarthy LHP, taking him deep along the left-field line, plating Longo along the way. Desmond Jennings joined in on the fun in the eighth inning, plating a run on an RBI double off Yankees reliever David Huff.

Alex Cobb was outstanding, putting together an 8-1/3 one-run, five hit, outing, striking out seven Yanks along the way.

Cesar Ramos made things interesting in the ninth inning in relief of Cobb. With one out and one on, Ramos loaded the bases and ultimately gave up a two-run double to center. The Bulldog — Joel Peralta — came on to clean up Ramos’ mess. He was able to strikeout the final two Yankees hitters, and subsequently locked down the victory. Tampa Bay will open a four game — multi city — interleague series against the Marlins, starting Monday.

Rays and Marlins series starters
Rays and Marlins series starters
Rays and Marlins offensive production at home, away, and overall
Rays and Marlins offensive production at home, away, and overall
Rays and Marlins by the numbers
Rays and Marlins by the numbers

Rays Hitters Vs. the Marlins Series Starters

Jose Fernandez: Per Rotowire, “Fernandez tossed five innings of one-run ball Tuesday, giving up five hits and a walk while striking out just two Phillies.” The Rays will face the Marlins uber prospect Monday when he butt’s heads with Jake Odorizzi. Per the Scouting Book, Fernandez is, “A righthander most thought was taken a bit high in the first round of 2011’s amateur draft, Miami’s Jose Fernandez proved to be worth every penny, and he’s now the highest-quality arm in a system that’s desperate for pitching depth. The big Cuban defector chased big money all the way to Miami, braving sharks both literal and metaphorical, and has since hit 99mph on the radar gun and shown signs of a plus breaking pitch.”

Kevin Slowey: Per Rotowire, “Slowey (back) completed a bullpen session Saturday and has been cleared to start Tuesday against the Rays, the Miami Herald reports.” Tampa Bay last faced Slowey in 2010, tagging him for four runs on four hits in 7-2/3 innings of work. Since then, only a handful of Rays have accrued any playing time against the Marlins RHP. Posting a combined .333 BA/.381 OBP/.513 SLG/.894 OPS slash line, the sample size of at-bats against Slowey is tiny at best. Key match-ups: Kelly Johnson (2-4, 2B, RBI), Jose Molina (2-4, 2B), Sean Rodriguez (2-3), Luke Scott (3-6, 2B, RBI, BB).

Tom Koehler: Per Rotowire, “Koehler chipped in another quality start Friday, allowing three runs on six hits while walking one and striking out three over six innings, but was left with no decision in Miami’s 4-3 loss to the White Sox in 11 innings.” Koehler is another young starter for the Marlins who the Rays have never faced. Koehler has a good four seam fastball and a curveball that he’s not afraid to use in any count. He tends to throw his changeup sparingly against left handed batters, while not at all against righties. He’s been beat up with his cutter, having been tagged for eight hits (five singles, two doubles, and a homer) in 13 at-bats.

Ricky Nolasco: Per Rotowire, “Nolasco held the White Sox to one run on eight hits over 7.2 innings Saturday but did not factor into the decision.” Simply put, the Rays love facing Nolasco. Over the last three years, Nolasco has put together an 0-3 record against the Rays, with an 8.78 ERA. Tampa Bay has tagged him for 13 runs on 23 hits — including four homers — in 13-1/3 total innings of work. The current Rays have posted a combined .298 BA/.346 OBP/.521 SLG/.867 OPS slash line, with a handful of batters having particularly good numbers against Nolasco. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (10-27, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Matt Joyce (2-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Jose Lobaton (2-3, 2 2B), Ryan Roberts (1-2, BB), Ben Zobrist (4-7, 2B, RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

  • The Marlins (13-37) are the worst team in MLB, having lost 12 of their past 14 games, and scoring a major league low 132 runs. They come into the Trop Monday banged up with three pivotal players on the DL: OF Giancarlo Stanton, 1B Casey Kotchman and 1B Logan Morrison. 
  • The Rays went 5-1 against the Marlins in 2012, having won nine of the past 10. Though the Marlins lead the overall series 43-42, the Rays are 23-18 at Tropicana Field, including 11-4 since 2008.
  • The Marlins have dropped five straight after scoring seven runs over the weekend in a three-game set against the White Sox.
  • The front two games of the series will take place at Tropicana Field, while the last two will take place at that Carnival Cruise Lines-like facility in Miami.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rodney Blows Fifth Save of the Season, Rays Blow the Series

Lyle Overbay trots past Rays first baseman James Loney after putting the Yankees ahead 4-3 with a two-out home run in the 11th inning. (Daniel Wallace/Times)
Lyle Overbay trots past Rays first baseman James Loney after putting the Yankees ahead 4-3 with a two-out home run in the 11th inning. (Daniel Wallace/Times)

We here at X-Rays Spex headquarters are not afraid to call things as we see them. In fact, calling people out on their collective stuff (expletive deleted) is one of our tenets. That Fernando Rodney has blown his fifth save of the year — in the Rays third loss when they were a strike away from victory — is a huge, heaping, load of horse-pucky. The Tampa Bay Rays are again sitting at .500 following a heart breaking 4-3 loss to the New York Yankees Saturday night. And with the loss went any hope of making up any ground against their AL East rivals… at least this time around.

Any culpability for the loss should not be placed on Matt Moore who, in a fair and just world, should be sitting pretty with his ninth win of the season. Moore posted another quality six inning start, giving up only one run on five hits and two walks. Moore made the proper adjustments, pitching to contact when he wasn’t blowing away the fastball hungry Yankees. With faith in the fielders behind him, Moore did not shy away from letting the Yankees put the bat on the ball, executing his pitches to great effect.

Nor should any blame be placed on Jake McGee or Joel Peralta’s shoulders; they did their jobs in the seventh and eight innings, combining for two innings of one hit, one walk, four strikeout baseball. What I like about Jake McGee — which is vastly different from Rays defacto closer Fernando Rodney — is that he’s largely cleaned up his act, stringing together seven consecutive scoreless innings. Granted he’s not getting in and out of innings with the efficiency of the previous season (he’s averaging 16 pitches per inning vs 13 in 2012), the results speak for themselves — McGee’s relented only one hit in those seven innings, while striking out seven.

No, the loss sits squarely with Fernando Rodney. To be fair, Josh Lueke did gave up the fourth run of the day. However had Rodney done his job, Lueke never would have been in the game in the first place. In 19-1/3 innings of work, Fernando Rodney has now allowed 16 hits, 13 earned runs, and 18 walks — all the while accruing an ERA of 6.05. These numbers, combined with five blown saves, does not a quality closer make. Blame it on his mechanics, or blame it on the fact that he’s missing his location — one undoubtedly has an effect on the other. One thing is certain: magically wipe those blown saves off the record, and the Rays are sitting five games over .500.

Joe Maddon made mention in his post game presser,

“This has been awkward to watch…as long as Rodney does not lose confidence in himself, I will not lose confidence in him.”

He went on to say that Fernando has been,

“One pitch away from being pretty darn good.”

I’d argue that the difference between a closer like Mariano Rivera or Jim Johnson, is their uncanny ability to execute that one pitch, making them — in Joe Maddon’s words — pretty darn good. I’d also argue that Rodney was more than one pitch away from being pretty darn good Saturday, after all his 1 IP/2 H/2 R/2 ER/1 BB/1 K line speaks for itself.

Though Joe Maddon has publicly defended the much maligned Rodney, Tribune sports columnist Roger Mooney asserts,

“Maddon is always going to defend his players publicly. If he does demote Rodney, probably will just happen without an announcement.”

The question begs: If the removal of Rodney from the closer role is imminent, who then takes his place? Has McGee — who’s been groomed for the role — stabilized enough to be bumped up to ninth inning? Do you move Joel Peralta into the closer role since he’s shown that he’s more than capable of dealing with heavy lifting? Do you return to the closer by committee policy? Whatever the case, Rodney is not getting any better. Rather, the opposite is true.

The New What Next

The Rays will attempt to wrangle a win away from Grimmace and the Yankees with Alex Cobb on the mound Sunday, in what promises to be a fun game. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 5/26/13 Starting Lineup

1. Desmond Jennings CF
2. Ryan Roberts 2B
3. Evan Longoria 3B
4. Ben Zobrist DH
5. Sean Rodriguez LF
6. Yunel Escobar SS
7. James Loney 1B
8. Jose Lobaton C
9. Sam Fuld RF
SP Alex Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Though Joe Maddon contends that Roberto Hernandez is still in line to make his normally scheduled start Wednesday, Rays beat writer Marc Topkin tweeted Saturday that Hernandez did not take batting practice with the other Rays pitchers. Maddon also walked on egg shells in his pre-game interview with WDAE Saturday, acknowledging that if the coaching staff cannot “fix” Hernandez, something else may need to happen. Tacit acknowledgement that the Rays may seek the services of Jake Odorizzi — at least until Chris Archer is ready to be called up — in lieu of Hernandez? Things that make you go hmm…