TNWN: Rays vs Astros — a series preview, part deux

The Rays start a three-game series against the Astros on Friday.

After splitting a brief two-game series with the Marlins, the Tampa Bay Rays departed for that other citrus-named dome, in Houston, where they’ll start a three-game series on Friday. The Astros most recently took two of three from Texas.

At 62-43 on the season, the Rays enter play 19 games over .500, and 1.5 games behind the first-place Orioles in the division. Meanwhile, the Astros enter play 58-45 on the season, and 2.0 games back of the first-place Rangers.

Just when the Rays looked like they were about to turn a corner after a 4-1 win against the Marlins, on Tuesday, they dropped an ugly 7-1 contest in the finale the following day. For Tampa Bay — who finished with only five hits on the day and left four runners on base — it was part and parcel with their July malaise. Over the life of their six-game home stand (vs. Baltimore and Miami), the Rays put up an ice-cold.203 BA/.278 OBP/.327 SLG/.605 OPS line with an unlucky .262 BABIP, and a 74 wRC+. It was also the same-old-same story: sure, a few players (José Siri 192 wRC+, Yandy Díaz 183 wRC+, Brandon Lowe 160 wRC+) got toasty over the last week, but the majority of the lineup (Harold Ramírez 88 wRC+, Manuel Margot 76 wRC+, Josh Lowe 65 wRC+, Randy Arozarena -28 wRC+, Christian Bethancourt -33 wRC+, Wander Franco -61 wRC+) couldn’t hit their way out of a wet bag.

Meanwhile, Houston had won three straight and six of their previous seven games before getting walloped by Texas in the finale of their three-game set Wednesday. The Astros got two hits each from Jeremy Pena (run) and Alex Bregman (run, three RBI) in the loss while Bregman (17) and Yanier Diaz (12) each homered in a losing effort. Even though base hits have eluded Houston over the last seven days, the team has taken its fair share of walks (10.7 BB%, .311 OBP) which set up its power game (.441 SLG, .221 ISO).

It will be up to Rays hurlers not to walk a ton of batters and keep the ball in the park if they have any hope of walking away with a series win. Until the offense wakes up, the team will continue playing in the margins and forcing the pitching staff to be perfect.

The Rays enter play with an overall (and improved) 3.70 ERA and 3.91 FIP (3.67 ERA and 3.55 FIP for the starters, 3.74 ERA, and 4.32 FIP for the relievers). Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay maintains a 3.60 ERA and 2.53 FIP (4.67 ERA and 2.43 FIP for the starters, 2.00 ERA and 2.67 FIP for the relievers).

Meanwhile, it won’t be easy for the Rays’ offense which will face an Astros club that maintains an overall 3.82 ERA and 4.18 FIP (3.81 ERA and 4.26 FIP for the starters, 3.84 ERA, and 4.04 FIP for the relievers). A caveat: Houston’s hurlers have been trash the last week, putting up a combined 5.26 ERA and a 6.13 FIP (4.78 ERA and a 5.91 FIP for the starters, and a 6.00 ERA and a 6.47 FIP for the relievers).

Tampa Bay is 1-2 against Houston this season. The three contests between the two have been low-scoring affairs, with the Astros edging out the Rays with a +1 run differential across the season series.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.89 ERA, 3.80 FIP), Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.30 ERA, 3.96 FIP), and Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.36 ERA, 3.14 FIP). Dusty Baker will counter with Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.32 ERA, 4.28 FIP), Hunter Brown (6-7, 4.19 ERA, 3.82 FIP), and Brandon Bielak (5-5, 3.62 ERA, 5.41 FIP).

Shane McClanahan allowed five runs on five hits and three walks over four innings against Baltimore on Saturday. He struck out five on 86 pitches (56 strikes, 65% strike rate). All of the damage against McClanahan came in the fourth when he surrendered five hits — including back-to-back-to-back doubles — as part of a five-run frame. The rough inning was enough for Kevin Cash to pull the southpaw, marking the third time in his last four turns not reaching the fifth inning. Saturday’s outing also set a season-high in runs allowed. After a dominant start to 2023, McClanahan has struggled mightily in July, posting a 6.30 ERA (which is belied by a far better 3.28 FIP so take it with a grain of salt), a 3.67 K/BB, and a 1.10 WHIP across 10 innings.

Cristian Javier allowed two runs on one hit and six walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings on Saturday versus the Athletics. Javier didn’t give up a hit until the sixth inning when he put two on with two outs, ending his day. However, Phil Maton let three straight batters reach base and allowed two inherited runners to score. It’s been a rough stretch for Javier, who has given up 23 runs while walking 14 over his last 21.1 innings (five starts). The poor pitching has him up to a 4.32 ERA and a 4.28 FIP, with a 1.22 WHIP, and 2.82 K/BB through 102 innings. Key Matchups: Christian Bethancourt (1-2), Brandon Lowe (1-2, BB), Manuel Margot (1-4, HR, 2 RBI)

Taj Bradley allowed three runs on five hits and a walk while striking out six across five innings Sunday against the Orioles. Bradley gave up a run in the first and then a two-run blast to Gunnar Henderson in the second to put the Rays in a quick three-run hole. However, he allowed just one more baserunner after that frame, although he failed to make it past five innings, which is something he’s done just once in 15 starts. Bradley did register an impressive 34% whiff rate but he also surrendered a home run for a sixth consecutive turn. He sits at a 5.30 ERA — which is belied by a far healthier 3.96 FIP — with a 1.37 WHIP, and 4.32 K/BB over 71.1 innings.

Hunter Brown allowed two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings versus the Athletics on Sunday. Brown enjoyed his best start of July, although the quality of his opponent likely played a role. He’d allowed a total of 12 runs and 24 hits over his three previous outings (12.1 innings) before getting back on track Sunday. The right-hander is now at a 4.19 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, with a 1.32 WHIP, and a 3.49 K/BB through 105.1 innings (19 starts) this season. Brown previously tossed seven innings of two-hit ball against Tampa Bay on April 26. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (2-2), Harold Ramírez (2-5, 2B)

Tyler Glasnow allowed a run on two hits and two walks over seven innings against Miami. He struck out eight and threw 97 pitches (68 strikes, 70% strike rate, 18% SwStr%). Glasnow’s now held opponents to just one run in three of his last four outings while racking up 55 strikeouts over his last six turns (36.1 innings). He lowered his ERA to 3.36 (3.14 FIP), with a 1.12 WHIP, and a 4.40 K/BB across 11 starts (61.2 innings).

Brandon Bielak pitched 4.2 innings against Texas on Monday, allowing six runs (three earned) on six hits and four walks while striking out five batters. Bielak’s final line was softened a bit by the fact that three of the runs against him were unearned, even so, it was a poor outing by the right-hander. He threw just 59 of 102 pitches for a strike (58% strike rate) and tied a season-high with four walks while surrendering a pair of homers. Bielak had been pitching well in July coming into Monday, posting a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over three starts. Overall, he maintains a 3.61 ERA, but an ugly 5.41 FIP, with a 1.45 WHIP, and a 1.83 K/BB. Bielak relies primarily on a firm 87 mph changeup that has slight arm-side fade and some natural sink and a 92 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action, while also mixing in a 92 mph cutter, an 82 mph slider that sweeps across the zone, a 93 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action, and an 80 mph 12-6 curveball.

Noteworthiness

— Yandy Díaz (left groin tightness), who left Tuesday’s contest, received a clean MRI. After sitting out Wednesday, and Thursday’s day off, he could be back in the lineup this weekend.

— Zach Eflin (left knee discomfort) also received a clean MRI and could start Tuesday’s contest against the Yankees.

TNWN: Rays vs Marlins — a series preview

After dropping three of four to the, now, first-place Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays look to regroup against the second-place Marlins — who dropped two of three to the Rockies — when they start a brief, two-game series on Tuesday.

At 61-42 on the season, the Rays enter play 19 games over .500.

Tampa Bay was able to put up quality at-bats against the Orioles, however, a couple of things prevented them from splitting or winning a pretty winnable series: big hits still eluded the team, while Pete Fairbanks (twice) and Jason Adam both gave up late, go-ahead runs.

The BABIP luck dragons are still having their way with the Rays’ bats — Tampa Bay’s hitters put up a big-league lagging .271 BABIP over the last week. A spike in their combined strikeout rate over the same stretch should also be noted. Whatever the case, the Rays averaged just 3.5 runs per game against the AL East foe, which is around two runs fewer than their season-per-game average. It certainly doesn’t help that six regulars (Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Christian Bethancourt, Josh Lowe, Luke Raley, and Wander Franco) performed under the 100 wRC+ mark over the last week, with Franco bottoming out the list at -2 wRC+.

If they are going to beat the Marlins, the Tampa Bay Six are going to have to slip out of their malaise. Fortunately, they’ll be facing a team that should give them more than a few chances. Miami’s pitching staff owns a combined 4.11 ERA and a 3.95 FIP, which can be broken down to a 4.12 ERA and 3.85 FIP for the starters, and a 4.08 ERA and 4.02 FIP for the relievers. Those numbers are even uglier (or, more advantageous for the Rays if you prefer) in the second half, with Miami putting up a combined 4.64 ERA and 4.58 FIP (5.14 ERA and 4.71 FIP for the starters, and a 4.04 ERA and 4.43 FIP for the relievers).

The Rays enter play with an overall 3.70 ERA and 3.94 FIP (3.64 ERA and 3.58 FIP for the starters, 3.76 ERA, and 4.34 FIP for the relievers). Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay maintains a regressed 3.70 ERA and 3.35 FIP (3.91 ERA and 2.87 FIP for the starters, 3.43 ERA and 3.94 FIP for the relievers) given some pretty ugly numbers running up to the All-Star Break.

Last season, the Rays went 4-0 against the Marlins and outscored them 18-7.

Pitching Probables

Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (3-3, 3.62 ERA, 3.30 FIP), and Zach Eflin (11-5, 3.36 ERA, 3.03 FIP). Skip Schumaker will counter with Edward Cabrera (5-5, 4.50 ERA, 4.55 FIP), and Sandy Alcantara (3-9, 4.70 ERA, 4.00 FIP).

Tyler Glasnow allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits and no walks while striking out nine batters on 93 pitches (63 strikes, 68% strike rate, 17% SwStr%) over seven innings against Baltimore on Thursday. Glasnow struck out the first three batters he faced and cruised through three perfect frames before Baltimore got to him for three runs on four hits in the fourth. The veteran was able to recover, however, tossing three more scoreless frames to notch his second straight quality start. Glasnow ended up completing seven innings for the first time this season, and his nine punchouts were the third-most he’s tallied thus far. Even though Glasnow got a late start to the season, he’s been one of baseball’s top strikeout pitchers since his return. On the season, his 35.1% strikeout rate ranks second among big-league starters who have faced at least 200 batters. Overall, Glasnow maintains a 3.62 ERA and a 3.30 FIP, with a 1.19 WHIP, and a 4.44 K/BB across 54.2 innings.

Edward Cabrera struck out six and gave up one run on two hits and three walks across five innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday. The right-hander returned from a month-long stint on the Injured List due to a shoulder impingement and fired five scoreless frames before Brendan Donovan’s leadoff homer in the sixth. Cabrera finished at 74 pitches (44 strikes, 59% strike rate, 11% SwStr%) and could continue to have some workload limitations in his next couple of starts since he rejoined Miami’s rotation without a rehab assignment. Overall, Cabrera maintains a 4.50 ERA and a 4.55 FIP, with a 1.38 WHIP, and a 2.05 K/BB across 72.0 innings. He relies primarily on a hard 93 mph worm-killer changeup, a 96 mph fourseam fastball, and an 84 mph swing-and-miss curveball, while also mixing in a blazing 96 mph sinker and an 88 mph worm-killer slider that has some two-plane movement. Key Matchup: Randy Arozarena (1-3, 2B, 3 RBI)

Zach Eflin allowed two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings against the Orioles on Friday. He struck out eight and threw 87 pitches (63 strikes, 72% strike rate, 8% SwStr%). Eflin tossed seven scoreless frames for just the second time this season en route to his 11th win — tying his career-best mark (2018). It was a major bounce-back performance for the right-hander, who was roughed up for five runs over three innings against the Royals in his previous turn. Eflin has been as advertised in his first season with the Rays, posting a 3.36 ERA and a 3.03 FIP, with a 0.99 WHIP, and 7.06 K/BB across 19 appearances (112.1 innings).

Sandy Alcantara allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks over six innings against the Cardinals on Wednesday. He struck out seven and threw 103 pitches (69 strikes, 67% strike rate, 17% SwStr%). The Cardinals tagged Alcantara for four runs in the first inning, highlighted by a three-run homer off the bat of Nolan Gorman. Alcantara was able to settle down and hold the Cardinals off the board over his final five frames. The right-hander has shown some improvement recently, delivering quality starts in three of his previous four outings. Still, it’s been a disappointing campaign overall for Alcantara. His ERA is up to 4.70, with a 4.00 FIP, a 1.28 WHIP, and 2.94 K/BB through 20 starts (126.1 innings). Alcantara relies primarily on a 98 mph sinker that has an obvious tail and some natural sinking action, a hard 91 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, a whiffy 98 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and slight arm-side run, and a hard 90 mph 12-6 slider. Key Matchup: Brandon Lowe (4-8, 3 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

Noteworthiness

— On Saturday, Taylor Walls (left oblique strain) was placed on the 10-day injured list. Vidal Bruján was recalled from Triple-A Durham and filled the hole on the active roster.

— Good news for a change. The Rays sent LHP Josh Fleming on a rehab assignment to FCL Rays.

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part three

The Rays return to the friendly confines of the Trop, where big crowds are expected for the series versus the Orioles. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After a disappointing series sweep at the hands of the Rangers, the Tampa Bay Rays return to the friendly confines of the Trop, where they will start an important four-game series against the Orioles on Thursday. Baltimore most recently dropped two of three to the Dodgers.

The Rays enter play 60-39 on the season, 21 games over .500, and in a statistical tie for first place in the division with the Orioles.

The Rays’ offense showed signs of life against the Royals, yet they could only tally six total runs against the Rangers while stranding 18 runners on base over the life of the set, and going 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position (.067 wRISP BA). In short, Tampa Bay could get them on and get them over, but they couldn’t get them home … they couldn’t get that all-important timely hit when it was needed the most. Tampa Bay hasn’t been striking out at an obscene clip, rather they have been very unlucky over the last week — a .259 BABIP speaks to that.

There are signs that Tampa Bay’s hitters might be close to slipping out of their malaise — five batters barreled up the ball eight times in the series finale — however, it will take more than simply “getting close” this weekend. The offense will need some balls to drop into play at advantageous times, while the pitching staff will need to continue performing as it has since just prior to the All-Star Break.

The Orioles entered the series against the Dodgers in the midst of a multi-game winning streak, but promptly dropped the first two games of the series. Unfortunately for the Rays, Baltimore’s lone win came at a beneficial time for them, as it allowed the Orioles to pull into a statistical tie for first place with the Rays. Despite the down swell, the Orioles have performed 19% better than the Rays over the last week as it relates to wRC+ (99 wRC+ vs 121 wRC+). All told, over that stretch, Baltimore has slashed an above-average .269 BA/.333 OBP/.477 SLG/.810 OPS with a beefy .208 ISO.

The Rays enter play with an overall 3.73 ERA and 4.03 FIP (3.63 ERA and 3.67 FIP for the starters, 3.84 ERA, and 4.43 FIP for the relievers). Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay maintains a much improved 3.55 ERA and 3.70 FIP (3.68 ERA and 3.57 FIP for the starters, 3.43 ERA and 3.83 FIP for the relievers) given some pretty ugly numbers running up to the All-Star Break.

Meanwhile, the Rays should get their chances to put up some runs against an Orioles team that maintain an overall 4.23 ERA and 4.13 FIP (4.57 ERA and 4.50 FIP for the starters, 3.74 ERA, and 3.59 FIP for the relievers). A caveat: their numbers over the last 14 are much better, with Baltimore’s hurlers putting up a combined 3.66 ERA and a 3.55 FIP (4.04 ERA and a 3.58 FIP for the starters, and a 3.06 ERA and a 3.49 FIP for the relievers).

The Rays are 2-3 against the Orioles this season and 1-1 against them at the Trop.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days, Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (3-3, 3.78 ERA, 3.69 FIP), Zach Eflin (10-5, 3.59 ERA, 3.14 FIP), Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.56 ERA, 3.84 FIP), and Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29 ERA, 3.96 FIP). Brandon Hyde will counter with Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.77 ERA, 3.95 FIP), Kyle Bradish (6-4, 3.05 ERA, 3.48 FIP), Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 7.33 ERA, 5.64 FIP), and Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA, 4.77 FIP).

Tyler Glasnow allowed one run on six hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over six innings on Saturday, against the Royals. Glasnow was originally slated to start Friday but had his outing pushed back a day due to inclement weather. The adjustment didn’t appear to bother the veteran hurler, as he notched his second quality start of the season. Glasnow departed his previous start against Atlanta early due to cramping in his hands and legs, so it was reassuring to see him go a full six frames and toss 95 pitches (62 strikes, 65% strike rate, 17% SwStr%. The right-hander has been a valuable asset since making his season debut on May 27, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 3.69 FIP, with a 1.24 WHIP, and a 3.94 K/BB over 47.2 innings.

Kyle Gibson coughed up five runs on nine hits and two walks over 5.1 innings against the Marlins. He struck out one. It was a shaky outing for the right-hander, who tossed 52 of 84 pitches for strikes (62% strike rate). Gibson has been tagged for at least four runs in four of his last five turns, posting a 7.62 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and 2.27 K/BB in 26 innings over that stretch. Gibson was very effective in his last outing against Tampa Bay, surrendering two runs on six hits (including a homer) and two walks across six innings. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (3-7, BB), Yandy Díaz (4-9, 2 BB), Wander Franco (2-3), Brandon Lowe (4-16, 2B, 3B, RBI), Josh Lowe (1-3, HR, RBI), Isaac Paredes (3-3, 2B), Luke Raley (1-3)

Zach Eflin allowed five runs on seven hits in three innings against the Royals on Sunday. He did not strike out or walk a batter and was pulled after just 46 pitches in his shortest start of the season. He tied his season high with seven hits allowed after the Royals pounced on him for one run in the first inning and four in the second while lacing three extra-base hits. In all fairness, two of those extra-base hits can be attributed to misplays by Manuel Margot. Nevertheless, Eflin had struck out at least five hitters in each of his last eight turns, but he wasn’t fooling anyone Sunday, recording his second outing this year with zero strikeouts. He still holds a respectable 3.59 ERA and a 3.14 FIP, with a 1.03 WHIP, and a 7.00 K/BB across 105.1 innings.

Kyle Bradish allowed three hits and a walk over 7.1 scoreless innings against the Marlins on Sunday. He struck out eight. Bradish picked up where he left off before the All-Star Break and has now delivered consecutive scoreless outings while pitching to a 1.41 ERA over his last six turns (38.1 innings). The 26-year-old lowered his ERA to 3.05, and his FIP to 3.48 on the season, with a 1.13 WHIP, and a 3.63 K/BB. Bradish allowed two runs on four hits and two walks across 5.0 innings the last time he faced the Rays. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (3-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Yandy Díaz (4-9, 2B), Wander Franco (1-3, RBI), Manuel Margot (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Francisco Mejía (3-6, 2B, 2 RBI), Luke Raley (2-3), Harold Ramírez (2-7, 2B, 2 RBI)

Shane McClanahan allowed two runs on three hits and no walks while striking out six batters over six innings against Texas on Monday. McClanahan landed on the Injured List with a back injury on July 1, but he needed only a near-minimum stay before facing Texas. The southpaw dominated in his first five frames, holding Texas scoreless on just one hit. However, Ezequiel Duran tagged him for a two-run homer in the sixth inning, which proved to be McClanahan’s final frame despite the fact that he needed just 69 pitches to reach that point. The low pitch count was likely a result of Tampa Bay being cautious following his recent injury, although it speaks volumes that the left-hander was able to notch a quality start without reaching 70 pitches. Overall, McClanahan owns a 2.56 ERA and a 3.84 FIP, with a 2.28 K/BB, and a 1.13 WHIP on the season.

Grayson Rodriguez yielded four runs on seven hits and two walks over five-plus innings on Monday against the Dodgers. He struck out four. Rodriguez looked strong Monday, yielding just one run through five frames, but he then allowed three straight batters to reach base in the sixth inning and was charged with three more runs. It was his first big-league outing since May 26 after a stint with Triple-A Norfolk and he now owns a 7.33 ERA and a 5.64 FIP through 50.1 career innings at the top level. Rodriguez gave up two runs on seven hits (including two homers) and two walks across 5.2 innings the last time he faced Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (1-3), Wander Franco (2-3, HR, RBI), Manuel Margot (1-2), Isaac Paredes (1-3), Luke Raley (1-2, BB), Taylor Walls (1-2, HR, RBI)

Taj Bradley was excellent on Tuesday, despite being credited with a loss in Texas, striking out nine and surrendering two runs on five hits and two walks over five innings. One of the runs on Bradley’s line crossed the plate after he was pulled from the contest. The right-hander entered Tuesday’s contest having surrendered 16 runs across his past three starts, so his performance against the AL West-leading Rangers was an encouraging sight. He gave up a solo homer to Marcus Semien in the third inning and continues to be hurt by the long ball with 12 home runs allowed through 14 turns. Overall, Bradley maintains a 5.29 ERA (which is belied by a 3.96 FIP), with a 4.24 K/BB, and a 1.39 WHIP across 66.1 innings.

Tyler Wells allowed five runs on six hits and two walks over two innings against the Dodgers in his last outing. He struck out two. It was the shortest outing of the season for Wells in his first start out after the All-Star Break, as the Dodgers put up five runs in the second inning. The loss ended an impressive run for Wells, who’d logged quality starts in five of his previous six turns — posting a 2.97 ERA over that stretch. Overall, the right-hander owns a 3.54 ERA and a 4.77 FIP, with a 0.98 WHIP, and a 4.04 K/BB across 18 starts (106.2 innings) on the season. Wells allowed four runs on four hits (including two homers) and two walks in a loss to the Rays the last time the two faced one another. Key Matchups: Brandon Lowe (2-6, HR, 2 RBI), Josh Lowe (3-5, 2 2B, BB), Isaac Paredes (2-7, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Luke Raler (1-4, HR, RBI), Harold Ramírez (3-10, 2B), José Siri (1-2, RBI), Taylor Walls (1-4, BB)

Noteworthiness

— After surrendering four runs in relief of Zach Eflin on Sunday, the Rays designated RHP Yonny Chirinos for assignment.

— The Rays recalled RHP Calvin Faucher before the series finale in Texas. To clear space on the roster, Javy Guerra was designated for assignment … again.

— Tampa Bay sent RHP Andrew Kittredge on a rehab assignment to Durham Bulls on Tuesday.

TNWN: Rays vs Rangers — a series preview, part deux

Frankie go boom! Francisco Mejía hit two homers in the series against the Royals over the weekend. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After taking two of three in Kansas City, the Tampa Bay Rays will continue their road trip in Arlington, when they start a three-game set against the Rangers on Monday. Texas swept the Guardians over the weekend.

at 60-36 on the season, the Rays enter play 24 games over .500 and in first place in the AL East, by a game, over the Orioles. The Rangers sit atop the AL West by 3.0 games over the Astros.

In their first series against the Rangers, at the Trop, the Rays were able to take two of three. However, a road series could be a challenge for them here, especially considering the dropoff between their home and road records. Tampa Bay still maintains a winning record on the road but adding in recent struggles — they’ve only won three of their last 10 games, which leaves quite a bit to be desired — could mean a challenging series in Arlington. Whatever the case, their aim is to have a second half as strong as the first. In a potential postseason preview, Tampa Bay needs to set the tone in the series opener.

Baseball pundits and analysts alike have expected Texas to fall off at some point, yet the Rangers continue to rack up the wins. At 29-18 at home, they’ve played their best in front of their fans. Much like Tampa Bay, though, they have struggled as well of late — having gone only 4-6 over their last ten games.

The Rays enter play with an overall 3.70 ERA and 4.00 FIP (3.64 ERA and 3.65 FIP for the starters, 3.76 ERA, and 4.40 FIP for the relievers). Over the last 14 days, Tampa Bay maintains a much improved 3.62 ERA and 3.32 FIP (3.96 ERA and 2.92 FIP for the starters, 3.32 ERA and 3.68 FIP for the relievers) given some pretty ugly numbers running up to the All-Star Break.

Meanwhile, Texas maintains an overall 3.98 ERA and 4.15 FIP (3.72 ERA and 4.26 FIP for the starters, 4.44 ERA, and 3.96 FIP for the relievers). Their numbers over the last 14 days aren’t too pretty, with Rangers’ hurlers putting up a combined 5.34 ERA and a 5.17 FIP (6.10 ERA and a 6.49 FIP for the starters, and a 4.34 ERA and a 3.44 FIP for the relievers).

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will lean on Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.53 ERA, 3.86 FIP), Taj Bradley (5-5, 5.43 ERA, 3.99 FIP), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale. Bruce Bochy will counter with Dane Dunning (8-2, 2.84 ERA, 3.83 FIP), Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 2.83 ERA, 3.18 FIP), and Jon Gray (6-5, 3.45 ERA, 4.58 FIP).

Shane McClanahan (mid-back tightness) was placed on the 15-day Injured List after exiting back-to-back starts due to back tightness. After taking time to rest, McClanahan threw a bullpen session on July 9 and another on Thursday afternoon, with manager Kevin Cash reporting that the ace hit 95 mph in the lower-intensity setting. He had been expected to come off the IL when eligible on Sunday, however, Friday’s rainout shuffled Tampa Bay’s pitching plans, pushing him back to Monday. Despite two multi-run contests ahead of his IL stint, the left-hander ended the first half with a 2.53 ERA and a 3.86 FIP, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 2.66 K/BB.

Dane Dunning allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against the Nationals on Sunday, July 9. He struck out four and threw 88 pitches (59 strikes, 67% strike rate, 7% SwStr%). While Dunning had an impressive first half, he struggled against one of baseball’s worst teams, tying his season high in runs allowed and failing to finish six innings for the first time since June 17. All of the damage against Dunning came late, as a Dominic Smith solo homer in the fifth inning put the Nationals on the board. Through 20 appearances (12 starts), Dunning boasts an impressive 2.84 ERA and a 3.83 FIP … although hasn’t missed many bats, logging 59 strikeouts (5.77 K/9) through 92 frames. Dunning relies primarily on a 91 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action, an 89 mph cutter, and an 83 mph slider that has exceptional depth, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup that has obvious arm-side fade and some natural sink. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (1-3), Luke Raley (1-2), Taylor Walls (1-2)

Taj Bradley allowed four runs on five hits and two walks while striking out four batters over five innings against Atlanta prior to the break. Bradley made it through three perfect frames before surrendering four runs — three of which came on one swing of the bat from Sean Murphy — in the fourth. He was able to settle down and complete another scoreless inning before his departure. Bradley has hit a rough patch to close out the first half of the season, posting an 11.68 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and a 2.25 K/BB across 12.1 frames over his past three starts. His recent struggles have him sitting on a poor 5.43 ERA that’s belied by a 3.99 FIP (and an unlucky .348 BABIP), with a 1.39 WHIP and a 4.21 K/BB over 61.1 frames heading into the All-Star Break.

Nathan Eovaldi allowed four runs on five hits and four walks while striking out three batters over 5.1 innings against Boston on Thursday. Eovaldi was in trouble from the jump, allowing the first two batters he faced to reach base in a one-run first inning. He didn’t record a 1-2-3 frame until the fifth, and he was lifted with one out in the sixth to finish with his shortest start since May 29 (vs. Detroit). Eovaldi had a 2.24 ERA at the end of a scoreless six-inning appearance against Seattle on June 4, but that mark has risen to 2.83 over the course of his past six starts starting with a four-run/seven hit/three walk outing against the Rays. Not coincidentally, the right-hander’s control has faltered over that stretch — he’s issued 17 walks over his past 37.1 innings after walking just 14 batters across his initial 80.1 frames of the campaign. Overall, Eovaldi maintains a 2.83 ERA and a 3.18 FIP, with a 1.02 WHIP, and a 3.52 K/BB on the season. Key Matchups: Josh Lowe (3-4, 2B, BB), Manuel Margot (2-7), Francisco Mejía (4-10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Luke Raley (1-3, 2B, RBI), Taylor Walls (1-2, 2B)

TBA

Jon Gray allowed four runs on five hits and three walks over six innings against Cleveland on Friday. He struck out four on 88 pitches (54 strikes, 61% strike rate, 3% SwStr%). All the damage against Gray came in the third inning when he served up a pair of two-run homers. He’s surrendered 19 runs over his last five turns, driving his ERA from 2.32 to 3.45 (with a 4.37 FIP) in the process. Since his 12-strikeout, zero-walk performance on June 7, Gray has posted a lackluster 1.23 K/BB over his last five starts. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-3, HR, RBI), Wander Franco (1-1, RBI), José Siri (2-4)

The Music That Influenced This Preview

Ignorance plays raw hardcore along the lines of Confuse, Kriegshög, Lebenden Toten, and Gauze. Their newest EP is a total ripper!

TNWN: Rays vs Atlanta — a series preview

After dropping a second consecutive series, and five games overall, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get off the schneid ahead of the All-Star Break, when they welcome Atlanta into the Trop for a three-game series starting Friday. Atlanta took two of three from the Guardians this week.

At 57-33, the Rays enter play 4.0 games up on the second-place Orioles in the division. Atlanta is leading their respective division at 58-28 — 8.5 games up on the second-place Marlins.

It has been a no-good, very bad week for the Rays, who couldn’t get much to anything started against the Phillies. Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay has slashed an ice-cold .215 BA/.269 OBP/.402 SLG/.671 OPS line, with a subpar 87 wRC+ and a -5.6 wRAA. Granted they’ve hit into some bad luck over that stretch, their .257 BABIP speaks to that, although they’ve seen their K% jump to 27.3% and their BB% fall to 7.0%. In short, when they’ve gotten on base, they haven’t been able to get them over or get them home.

Juxtapose that with Atlanta, who is playing like the Rays at the start of the season. Over the last week, Atlanta has been twice as good as Tampa Bay as it relates to wRC+ (169). They’ve slashed a healthy .319 BA/.368 OBP/.657 SLG/1.025 OPS line, with an obscene .338 ISO, and a 21.3 wRAA. Great googly-moogly!

The Rays enter play with an overall 3.72 ERA and 4.03 FIP (3.59 ERA and 3.65 FIP for the starters, 3.86 ERA, and 4.47 FIP for the relievers). Over the last week, Tampa Bay maintains an uncharacteristic 5.33 ERA and 4.01 FIP (6.00 ERA and 3.21 FIP for the starters, 4.80 ERA and 4.66 FIP for the relievers) which, clearly, shows that they could definitely use the All-Star Break, like, a week ago.

Meanwhile, Atlanta maintains an overall 3.63 ERA and 3.92 FIP (3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP for the starters, 3.45 ERA, and 3.61 FIP for the relievers). Their numbers are actually better over the last week, with Atlanta’s hurlers putting up a combined 2.14 ERA and a 3.36 FIP (2.60 ERA and a 3.61 FIP for the starters, and a 1.35 ERA and a 2.94 FIP for the relievers).

It will be a tough slog for the Rays, who went 2-1 against Atlanta in 2021, with a +6 run differential.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50 ERA, 3.68 FIP), Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27 ERA, 3.86 FIP), and Zach Eflin (9-4, 3.24 ERA, 3.09 FIP). Brian Snitker will counter with friend of the Rays Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA, 3.75 FIP), Spencer “Quadzilla” Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA, 2.98 FIP), and Bryce Elder (7-1, 2.45 ERA, 3.80 FIP).

Tyler Glasnow allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings Saturday versus the Mariners. This was his second-longest outing of the season, and Glasnow has racked up double-digit punchies in each of his last two turns. Glasnow’s posted a strong 3.73 K/BB over 36 innings so far, but his 4.50 ERA (belied by a 3.68 FIP, so take his ERA with a grain of salt) and 1.33 WHIP remain relatively pedestrian.

Charlie Morton allowed four hits and a walk over 5.2 scoreless frames on Saturday. He struck out five. The veteran right-hander has won three consecutive starts despite some inefficiency on his part, as he’s completed six innings just once in his last eight outings — posting a 4.36 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 2.55 K/BB through 43.1 innings over that stretch. Y’all know what to expect out of Uncle Charlie, an 82 mph sweeping knuckle curve and a 95 mph heavy sinking fourseam fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph changeup that has an obvious arm-side fade, and a 95 mph two-seamer/sinker that has an obvious tail. Key Matchups: Manuel Margot (1-3), Taylor Walls (1-2, BB)

Taj Bradley surrendered five runs on nine hits and a walk over 3.1 innings against Seattle on Sunday. After serving up a solo homer to Eugenio Suarez in the second inning, Bradley coughed up four more runs in the third inning … although that followed an awful, non-obstruction call by the umpires after Ty France plowed into Isaac Paredes as he attempted to field a grounder. That play completely changed the feel of the inning. Make note of Bradley’s .533 BABIP over the last seven days, making the right-hander a bad-luck candidate. At any rate, it seemed like Bradley was settling in at the big-league level with a 3.28 ERA over a five-start stretch, but he’s since been tagged with 11 earned runs over two outings. His season ERA has jumped to 5.11, although that’s belied by a significantly better 3.86 FIP. His 4.65 K/BB through 56.1 innings still looks impressive.

Spencer Strider allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk over 6.2 innings against the Marlins. He fanned nine batters across 6.2 frames. The 24-year-old has been MLB’s premier strikeout pitcher, leading the league with 155 punchouts and a 14.2 K/9; racking up eight or more punchies in 14 of his 17 starts. After enduring a rough patch in early June, during which he gave up 13 runs over two appearances (nine innings), Strider has bounced back with just four earned runs across his last three turns (19.2 innings) to bring his ERA to 3.66 on the season, with a 2.98 FIP. Strider relies primarily on a whiffy 97 mph fourseam fastball and an 86 mph swing-and-miss slider that has two-plane movement, while also mixing in an 87 mph worm-killer changeup.

Zach Eflin allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings against the Phillies. He struck out nine and threw 102 pitches (72 strikes, 71% strike rate). Eflin logged his fourth consecutive quality start while also striking out seven or more batters for the third straight time. The start continued what could be a career year for Eflin, as the 29-year-old boasts what would be his best ERA (3.24), FIP (3.10), BB/9 (1.39), and HR/9 (0.9) of his big-league career, while also ranking third in MLB in K/BB (6.67) this season.

Bryce Elder allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out one batter over 6.2 innings against the Guardians on Monday. Elder retired the side in order in just one of the innings during which he pitched, but the Guardians failed to score through six frames. They finally broke through with a pair of runs in the seventh, which ended his outing after 92 pitches. Nevertheless, Elder pitched well enough to notch his fourth straight quality start. He’s posted an uninspiring 1.88 K/BB over 25.2 innings during that stretch but has still managed an excellent 1.75 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Elder relies primarily on a 90 mph sinker that has some natural sinking action and an 83 mph 12-6 slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, and a 91 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action.

The Music That Influenced This Preview

Longings are a dark post-punk band from all over the place. They throw in a few dashes of Meatwave weirdness with a heaping helping of Signal Lost anarcho-punk. Dreams In Red flat-out rules.