The New What Next: Rays Head to Seattle For Three — A Series Preview of Sorts

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We ove ya BenZo, but I’m not sure your shirt really typifies the Woodstock generation aesthetic. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays returned to the Trop, following a grueling 10-game road trip last Monday, riding high on a huge wave of momentum after going 5-5. Yet they just left for the West Coast Sunday after going 1-5 over the six game span of their most recent Tropicana Field residency. In short, they’re struggling to keep their heads above water at the moment. The first stop on their forthcoming trip is Seattle, where they’ll take on the 19-18 Mariners.

The Mariners made improvements over the winter, adding Robinson Cano, Logan Morrison, Corey Hart, John Buck, and Willie Bloomquist to the fold. The moves bolstered a roster that already included King Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma — both of whom will pitch against the Rays.  However, the roster improvements haven’t fully proven valuable to this point — the Mariners sit toward the bottom of the league in offensive production. As in previous years, the pitching staff has carried the team. Led by Hernandez, the Mariners reside in the top third of the AL, as it relates to on base percentage, slugging, OPS, ERA, and the number of home runs given up.

It’s not going to be easy against King Felix and Iwakuma, though if ever there was a time to face Hernandez, it’s now. The Rays could be catching Seattle’s ace at the right time following his first outing without a strikeout in six years. Hernandez is hungry for his first win in more than a month, while the slumping Rays hope to take advantage of the slumping righty. Hernandez is 0-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 14 strikeouts in his last four starts for the Mariners.

For the Rays, it’s the same old story — they need to put together consistent pitching, and the offense needs to step it up in key moments. Tampa Bay did much better wRISP in the series against the Indians, hitting .348. From there, it’s a matter of being able to drive in one or two key runs when they are needed — cough, like the eighth or ninth innings, when they’re down by one or two runs. One of the bright spots in the rotation, Cesar Ramos, will get the start Monday night. Ramos was pulled one out shy of a quality start last Wednesday, in a game where he relinquished only two runs and three hits over 5-2/3 innings. If you recall, he was pulled after throwing only 72 pitches (in favor of Brandon Gomes) because of the pitching match-up against Adam Jones, not because Ramos didn’t have good stuff. I’d argue that Ramos did a better job in his last start, than David Price (who gets the start Wednesday, opposite of Iwakuma) did in his. Odorizzi will close out the series Wednesday afternoon.

Rays and Mariners serie starters.
Rays and Mariners series starters.
Rays and Mariners offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Mariners offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Mariners, by the numbers.
Rays and Mariners, by the numbers.

Felix Hernandez: You should know what to expect out of Hernandez by now. King Felix likes to pitch the outer regions of the zone (inner to lefties), in an attempt to get the batter to whiff at one of his plus pitches (be it a fastball or curve), or to coax a ground ball with his sinker or slider — especially against righites. The Mariners ace has been tough on the Rays in his last four outings, posting a 2-1 record and a 1.41 ERA. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (10-31, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (6-19, RBI, 3 BB).

chart
Felix Hernandez horizontal location, vs. righties. (Courtesy of Fan Graphs)
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Felix Hernandez horizontal location, vs. lefties (Courtesy of Fan Graphs)

Hisashi Iwakuma: Tampa Bay had some success against Iwakuma in his previous two starts against the Rays, forcing a pair of no-decisions, while tagging the 33 year-old RHP with a .298 BAA, and a 3.86 ERA. Still, the Mariners strike thrower has been exceptionally tough this season — his numbers (above) speak to that. Iwakuma is a ground ball inducing machine, so expect to see the Rays attempt to force mistakes up in the zone. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (1-4), James Loney (1-4), Evan Longoria (1-3), Jose Molina (2-5, RBI), Ben Zobrist (4-6, 2B).

Brandon Maurer: Maurer has been called the opposite of Iwakuma, especially when you compare their May 8th and 9th, back-to-back starts. On Thursday, Iwakuma pitched eight innings of four-hit shutout ball in a 1-0 defeat against the Royals. Compare that to Friday, when Brandon Maurer allowed 14 hits and six runs in the Mariners 6-1 loss. Nevertheless, he has a max-effort delivery where he uses a variety of arm-angles to add deception to his release, and features a four-pitch-arsenal with a fastball (sitting 89-93), a slider, an above average change-up which has a nice velocity separation from his fastball, and a curve ball.

Noteworthiness

  • Desmond Jennings (left hand) is day-to-day after being hit by a pitch during Sunday’s game.
  • “I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t a little bit stressed out. I don’t think we’re playing bad games. I think we’re playing the game the right way. We’re just getting beat.” — Evan Longoria

 

 

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Fall to the Tribe, 6-5

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - MAY 11: Evan Longoria #3 of the Tampa Bay Rays slides in safely as catcher Yan Gomes #10 of the Cleveland Indians waits for a late throw during the eighth inning of a game at Tropicana Field on May 11, 2014 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Evan Longoria slides in safely as catcher Yan Gomes waits for a late throw during the eighth inning. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)


Source: FanGraphs

The Rays dropped the final game of their home stand in a 6-5 loss to the Indians, following another fruitless (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) late inning rally. Of the Rays five losses this week, all of them found the Tampa Bay bringing the tying (and/or winning) run to the plate. Much like their previous four losses, Tampa Bay could have walked away with a win. The team with the worst road record in the AL, just took two of three from the Rays. Ouch.

Fresh on the heels of their 1-5 home stand, the Rays will hop a plane to the west coast where they’ll face Iwakuma, King Felix, and the Seattle Mariners. We’ll put together a series preview shortly.

Noteworthiness

  • Chris Archer walked four in his five inning outing Sunday. Archer has now gone five or fewer innings in five consecutive starts. The culprits were the same: Archer couldn’t put the Indians away with two-strikes and two-outs — ultimately relinquishing more than a few big hits — while relying entirely too much on his slider (40 thrown), forcing him to come back with a fastball that lacked command.
  • Desmond Jennings stayed in the game after getting hit on the hand by a 96 MPH pitch in the eighth inning of Sunday’s game. Joe Maddon said (in his post-game presser) it’s a good assumption he’ll be sore in the morning. They’ll assess things then. With, arguably, the toughest RHP in the American League getting the start tomorrow night (…ahem, Felix Hernandez), I wouldn’t expect to see DesJen getting the start in the first game of their upcoming series against the Mariners.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Bedard, Rays Pummel the Indians, 7-1

The scene at the Trop prior to the first pitch. (Photo courtesy of Sarah Gecan)
The scene at the Trop prior to the first pitch. (Photo courtesy of Sarah Gecan)

The Tampa Bay Rays took the second game of their series with the Cleveland Indians Saturday night in convincing fashion, pounding Francona’s boys by a score of 7-1. Erik Bedard put together his second consecutive quality start, an excellent 6 IP/1 H outing — giving Tampa Bay the opportunity to win the series Sunday, in the series finale. Of honesty and hangovers… My attention was divided between watching the game and playing a show in Melbourne. Our staff contributor, Michael Nazarro, wasn’t able to watch any of the game either. What follows is a very rudimentary game recap.

I mean, was there really any doubt Saturday night?
I mean, was there really any doubt Saturday night?

With the fourth consecutive loss still fresh in our minds, Erik Bedard took the hill to face the red-hot Cleveland Indians. And though Bedard has been pitching very well, especially of late, I still questioned whether his success was sustainable. After all, this is the same pitcher who hadn’t won a game since 2012, prior to his quality start last week; the same pitcher whose velocity has been on a steady decline over the past few seasons; the same pitcher who’s become a soft contact coaxing hurler.

My oh my, was I ever wrong. Bedard quelled those fears by tossing a superb  6 IP/1 H/0 R/3 BB/4 K/101 pitches (60 strikes, 59.4 K%)/3 GBO/9 FBO game. Things looked a bit shaky in the front two innings, with the lefty throwing 40+ pitches and showing signs he might not make it past the fourth. But Bedard settled in and attacked the zone with his fastball and change-up. He changed speeds and induced a lot of lazy flyballs — nine to be exact. In short, Bedard did what he’s want to do when he’s on — force weak contact. Bedard held the opposition to one run or less for the third consecutive game, all coming after allowing nine runs in his first three outings of the year.

The offense broke out Saturday, tagging the Indians for seven runs on 10 hits. What follows in a montage of some of those offensive highlights:

Evan Longoria did what he should, smacking an RBI double in the fifth inning:

James Loney went 3-4 with two-RBI and a run. Here’s a look at his second RBI base hit:

Despite a thumb contusion and being listed as day-to-day, Yunel Escobar came up big with a two-out opposite field RBI single in the fourth:

All told, the Rays were impressive Saturday, going 4-6 wRISP and touching the Indians for three extra base hits.

The new What Next

Chris Archer will attempt to cap off what has been a lackluster home stand with a win Sunday, in the series finale. He’ll be opposed by Mike Tomlin. A win this afternoon would give Tampa Bay the series, ending their six game residency on a high note. You can read about the pitching match-up in our series preview,.

Rays 5/11/14 Starting Lineup

DeJesus DH
Zobrist 2B
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Jennings CF
Escobar SS
Molina C
Archer RHP.

Noteworthiness

  • Alex Cobb is eying a May 22nd return against the Oakland Athletics. He has two more tests ahead of his return: a four-inning/60-pitch simulated game Monday in Port Charlotte, then a five-inning rehabilitation start Saturday — the location is to be determined.
  • Mark Topkin writes, “The lack of a left-handed hitter on the bench has become a bigger issue than the Rays acknowledged it would be. Given how little OF Brandon Guyer has been used and INF Logan Forsythe has contributed, wouldn’t it make sense to drop one and either promote switch-hitting INF Wilson Betemit (left), who has a .331 OBP and seven homers at Triple-A Durham (and a July 1 out clause) or find someone similar?”
  • Ha! Topkin went on to write, “Still waiting for Duke Energy to explain the mythical lightning strike that supposedly caused the Tuesday Tropicana Field power outage. Maybe the next rate increase covers better weather data collection?”
  • Daniel Russell of DRaysBay took a look at Erik Bedard’s reliance on his (effective) slow change-up.
  • Jeremy Hellickson said he felt great day after his fifth bullpen session. “A huge step.” He hopes to be throwing his curve ball off mound by Friday.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Continue to Skid, Fall 6-3

Joel Peralta reacts after allowing a homer to the Indians’ Michael Brantley, the first batter he faces, that ties it at 2 in the seventh. (Photo courtesy of Will Vragovic/Times)
Joel Peralta reacts after allowing a homer to the Indians’ Michael Brantley, the first batter he faces, that ties it at 2 in the seventh. (Photo courtesy of Will Vragovic/Times)

By staff contributor, Michael Nazarro

Jake Odorizzi is an enigma. He clearly has some good stuff and the ability to fool batters. Maybe he loves his pitches so much, he wants to throw a lot of them as quickly as possible. Why drag 101 pitches out over seven or eight innings when you could do it in five? Maybe I’m being hard on him. He did strikeout 11 and only walked two, but he threw a lot of pitches. If you’re Odorizzi, you’ve got to be thinking, “Man, I pitched so well, I wish I could have gone deeper into the game.” Especially after Boxberger came in to start the sixth and promptly gave up home run to Asdrubal Cabarera and back to back singles, which we followed by a sac bunt, putting your possible second win on the line — McGee came in and cleaned up the mess, which Joel Peralta later forfeited.

The Rays offense, conversely, found a way to let Kluber keep his count low and get hit as well. Rays batters maybe didn’t get the big homerun, but they found a way to drive in runs. They also kept their runner left of base to five. Maybe the eight hits and two runs through eight innings don’t show it, but watching the game, the production felt better. But clearly not good enough. Maybe they got a little too comfortable with a two run lead and thought to let it just ride, but two ‘strike-em out/throw-em outs’ in a game is ridiculous. And again, the comeback was too little too late.

Scoring Breakdown

Rays:

  • In the 4th, with David DeJesus on third, Loney hit a sac fly to bring him in.
  • In the 5th, David DeJesus doubled bringing in Logan Forsythe.
  • In the 9th, David DeJesus doubled bringing in Ryan Hanigan

Indians:

  • In the 6th, Asdrubal Cabrera homered
  • In the 7th, Michael Brantley homered.
  • In The 7th, Yan Gomes singled on a soft line drive to right fielder Wil Myers. Driving in Carlos Santana.
  • In the 7th, Mike Aviles hit a 3 run HR.

Again the Rays held a lead and the bullpen gave it up. To add to an earlier pint on the website, the rays have, since the start of the previous road trip, surrendered 14 leads. This, one could say, is a team effort. The offense is clearly not building a healthy enough lead and the pitching is not shutting down opponents in close games.

To be honest, I stopped giving the game my undivided attention after Peralta gave the lead. It hurts to watch after that. I know Gomes inherited some runners and let them all score. My heart dropped after Brantley’s homerun.

The New What Next

If all goes as planned, Erik Bedard will pull the Rays out of their four game funk Saturday, when he takes on Zach McAllister and the Indians at the Trop. Again, that’s if all goes as planned. Bedard was solid in his previous six inning/one run outing Sunday. You can read about today’s pitching match-up, and so much more, in our series preview.

Rays 5/10/14 Starting Lineup

DeJesus DH
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Joyce LF
Jennings CF
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Bedard LHP

Noteworthiness

  • Talk about leaving a lot of chicken on the bone… The Rays have now brought the tying (and/or winning) run to the plate in the ninth inning, in the last four consecutive games. We can talk about the pitching rotation all day, however, the four consecutive losses are due in large part to a stagnant offense that has gone 6-35 (.171 BA) wRISP, while driving in only six two-out runs in that span. That’s, as the kids say, no bueno.
  • The lineup, courtesy of the Tampa Chamber of Commerce, worked out well for David DeJesus, who lead off and went 3-4
  • Though he won’t get the win, Jake Odorizzi did strike out a career high 11 batters. It’s really unfortunate he couldn’t control his pitch count and go a little deeper. Odorizzi’s slash looks like this: 5 IP/0 R/2 BB/11 K.
  • The Rays used 5 relievers. Once again driving home the fact that there has been no length in the Rays’ starters.
  • The Rays made John Axford work in the 9th. He threw 31 pitches, walked 2 and gave up a hit to DeJesus which drove in the 3rd run. Francona removed Axford for Cody Allen who had a little trouble retiring Loney. It took him 9 pitches, but he finally got him to fly out to end the game.
  • Yunel Escobar left the game after the top of the third and was replaced in the field by Zobrist and at bat by Forsythe. It turned out that the had a right thumb contusion and is day-to-day.
  • Ouch:

#Rays have lost 6 straight home games; first time they’ve done that in a season since dark days of June 2005

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 10, 2014

  • The Rays have lost six straight at home; last longer streak in one season: nine in a row in the 106-loss 2002 campaign
  • “Rays RHP Alex Cobb took what he said was a “huge” step in his recovery from a strained left oblique by throwing 49 crisp pitches, breaking balls included, in a three-inning simulated game Friday,” writes Tampa Bay Times staff writer Damian Cristodero. Cobb was happy with his session, saying, “Everything is going to go off how I feel the next day,” Cobb said. “I’m happy with it right now. Hopefully, (today) we’ll be even happier when there’s nothing wrong.”
  • Meanwhile, Jeremy Hellickson is scheduled to throw a 45-pitch bullpen session Saturday. He will stay away from throwing breaking pitches, with the exception a couple he said he’ll spin before getting on the mound. You may recall he had elbow soreness following his previous sessions — something that’s par for the course at this point in his recovery.

The New What Next: Enter the Indians — A Series Preview of Sorts

The last time the Rays faced the Indians, this happened. (File/UPI/Brian Kersey)
The last time the Rays faced the Indians, this happened. (File/UPI/Brian Kersey)

The Tampa Bay Rays resumes their six game home stand Friday, with a three-game weekend series against the Cleveland Indians. Oh…the similarities between the Rays and the Indians. Both teams are under .500, toward (or at) the bottom of their respective divisions. Yet the Indians are on a hot streak, having gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, while the Rays have whimpered — posting a 4-6 record in the same span, and fresh off a sigh-inducing three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles. Cleveland just completed a 5-2 home stand, capped off by a sweep of Minnesota.

Granted the Indians have lost 14 of their last 19 at Tropicana Field, however the Rays have now lost five in a row at the Trop — something they haven’t done since June 17-26, 2005. Where the Indians seek to remain hot, the Rays will attempt to put the pieces back together.

For the Indians, CF Michael Bourn returned to the lineup Thursday after missing four games with a tight hamstring. That doesn’t mean the Tribe are without injuries though. 2B Jason Kipnis (oblique strain) and DH Jason Giambi (calf) are both on the DL. Because of those injuries, Carlos Santana has seen more action at 3B, with Yan Gomes the primary catcher. Even with the loss of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians rotation has improved steadily following their rough start, while the bullpen has unexpectedly been among the American Leagues best. One thing is certain; despite the injuries, the Indians manager, Terry Francona, is always prepared.

Rays and Indians series starters.
Rays and Indians series starters.
Rays and Indians offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Indians offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Indians, by the numbers.
Rays and Indians, by the numbers.

Cory Kluber: The Rays have accrued all of two innings of experience against Cory Kluber over the last three seasons, which stands to reason — he saw all of 12 major league starts prior to the 2013 season. So what do we know about the former journeyman? Kluber’s got a sinker that averages in the 93 MPH range, and a cutter which he compliments with an absolutely filthy change-up. From there, his slider is probably his best pitch. Though he only threw it 11% of the time last season, he was able to get it across for strikes 40.91%, including a ridiculous 25.45% whiff rate. Per Rotowire, Kluber struck out a career-high 13 Sunday against the White Sox. He allowed one run on three hits and two walks in eight innings, but did not earn a decision.

Zach McAllister: Tampa Bay hasn’t culled much success against Zach McAllister over the last three seasons. And though McAllister’s recorded a 1-2 record against the Rays, he put together a 2.86 ERA along the way in those four starts. In his last start Monday, McAllister struck out eight 6-2/3 scoreless innings against the Twins. Once described as a sinker/slider guy, McAllister become more of a power pitcher once he joined the Indians, utilizing his mid-90’s fastball along with his low-80’s curve and mid-80’s change as his offspeed offerings. Key match-ups: James Loney (1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (2-6, RBI). 

Josh Tomlin: Tomlin picked up his first win since 2012 in his season debut Tuesday, tossing 6-2/3 innings of four-hit, one-run ball against the Twins. Tomlin is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in his last four starts against the Rays. What do we know about the pitcher who hadn’t seen major league action since 2012? The fastball/cutter/curveball/change-up throwing pitcher tends to keep most of his fastballs and cutters on the outer thirds of the plate or just off the edges. At times, his cutter has enough movement to resemble a slider. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Ryan Hanigan (1-2), Matt Joyce (4-9, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Jose Molina (4-7, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Sean Rodriguez (2-8, 2B).

Noteworthiness

  • Indians lead the series against the Rays 75-50 overall, and 32-30 at Tropicana Field.