Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Seventh Straight Behind Lack of Offense

Yes Evan Longoria, we all feel that way right about now. (Photo courtesy of Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
Yes Evan Longoria, we all feel that way right about now. (Photo courtesy of Rob Foldy/Getty Images)

Do you remember when the Rays would swarm the opposing pitcher? You know, back in the olden days of last year, when the offense would knock the pitcher off his game early on — not allowing him to get comfortable. Those sure were the good old days. I certainly would have killed for that approach at the plate last night. Tampa Bay fell to their Florida rivals by a 3-1 margin in Miami. The Marlins improved to 21-11 at home (29-28 overall), while the Rays fell even further back in the rankings. The good guys have now dropped seven consecutive games, scoring all of 17 runs in the process. This isn’t good, and yes…this sucks.

Tampa Bay fell behind early in a disastrous three-run, two hit, two walk, 28-pitch first inning. Alex Cobb had a hard time commanding his fastball and changeup, and the hit hungry Marlins took full advantage by working good counts, and forcing predictability out of a largely unpredictable Cobb. Working largely off his curve ball, Cobb finally put things back in order, coaxing a huge double play out of Garrett Jones for the first and second outs of the inning, then wringing up Adeiny Hechavarria, swinging, two batters later — ultimately limiting the to damage to three, and ending the inning.

From the point of Hechevarria’s strikeout onward, Cobb turned things around and kept the Rays in the game. The split-change throwing RHP sat down 13 consecutive batters — striking out five while inducing four ground outs (or infield liners), including this fourth inning web gem:

It would be another four innings before the next Marlins batter reached base. Brad Boxberger came on in relief in the seventh, and dominated. Boxberger struck out the side — all swinging — on 15 pitches (10 strikes), and Jake McGee pitched the final two frames of the game, striking out five of the six batters faced. McGee, impressively, has now retired the last 20 men faced and hasn’t allowed a run in 14-1/3 innings.

For the Marlins, three runs were all they needed against the offensively strapped Rays. As they’ve been accustomed to this season, Tampa Bay went 0-5 wRISP. Desmond Jennings plated their only run on a fifth inning double which scored Sean Rodriguez from first. Threatening with a runner on second, Logan Forsythe hit a 2-0 fly-out to right, and Jerry Sands — who pinch hit for Ali Solis after only 4-1/3 innings behind the dish — lined out, bringing Alex Cobb to the plate. Cobb worked a full count, but struck out looking to end the inning. If I may, between the solid contact he made in the third, and the full count strikeout to end the fifth, Cobb easily put together two of the Rays’ best at-bats of the night.

Of the 33 men that came to the plate, only 14 got ahead in the count. What’s more, six Rays struck out looking — largely at borderline pitches on the corners of the plate. BA made an interesting observation in the middle of Ben Zobrist’s first at-bat. The Rays announcer noted that Zobrist said something to the home plate umpire following the second strike — an outside fastball (or change, I can’t remember) — presumably inquiring if that’s how far he’d take the strike-zone. Two pitches later, Zobrist struck out looking on a 1-2 pitch on the inside corner. It all boils down to this: the Rays hitters didn’t protect with two strikes — especially the right handed hitters. All this is evidenced by the five caught looking strikeouts against Randy Wolf, who’s largely a contact pitcher.

Strike zone plot with two strikes against righties. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Strike zone plot with two strikes against righties. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

The New What Next

Chris Archer will try to halt the Rays skid in its tracks tonight against Henderson Alvarez (2-3, 2.97 ERA). Alvarez is 0-5 with a 6.28 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay. You can read about the pitching match up, and more, in our series preview.

Rays 6/2/14 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Zobrist 2B
DeJesus LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Joyce RF
Escobar SS
Molina C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

    • Your tweets of the day, courtesy of Marc Topkin:
      • Bad news. The Rays announced that OF Wil Myers has a slight stress fracture in his right wrist, and he will miss at least two months of the season. They went on to say that Myers will be in a cast from five to six weeks before he can start rehabbing his wrist.
      • If I may, I don’t understand why Joe Maddon started Logan Forsythe at second, and Ben Zobrist in right, last night. Forsythe went 0-3, while also grounding into a crucial seventh inning double play. Meanwhile, Kevin Kiermaier got a pinch hit single in his only at-bat against LHP Mike Dunn. Mind you, Forsythe was expected to be a lefty masher, yet he’s been anything but so far this season. Kiermaier has been fantastic in the field and at the plate this season, slashing .316 BA/.316 OBP/.632 SLG/.949 OPS in 19 plate appearances, with two homers, two runs, and three RBI. Granted 19 plate appearances is an incredibly small sample size. Yet, when you factor in Kiermaier’s numbers in Triple-A (.305 BA/.362 OBP/.461 SLG/.823 OPS, with three homers, 28 runs, and 13 RBI), and compare them to Forsythe’s overall numbers in 41 plate appearances, Kiermaier should see more playing time in right while Myers is on the DL. He holds more promise, offensively, than Forsythe.
      • Red Sox RHP Workman was handed down a six-game suspension for throwing at Evan Longoria, Friday. He was also fined an undisclosed amount.
      • Drew Laing of DRaysBay writes, “The Rays franchise player needs to step up and show what he’s made of.“

 

Rays 6/2/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

A Carnival Cruise Line, or a stadium? You choose.
A Carnival Cruise Line, or a stadium? You choose.

Rays 6/2/14 Starting Lineup

Zobrist RF
Escobar SS
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Rodriguez LF
Jennings CF
Forsythe 2B
Solis C
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

The New What Next: The Citrus Series — A Series Preview of Sorts

Rays and Marlins series starters.
Welcome to Florida, home of the Citrus Series.

On the heels of six consecutive losses, the Tampa Bay Rays will return to the Sunshine State, Monday, for a four game series against the Miami Marlins. The first two of the four will take place at Marlins Park, whereas the final two will cap things off at the Trop.

What was once a certainty, that the Rays would walk away with the Citrus Series title, has now become murky. At 28-28, the Marlins are exceeding everyone’s expectations (hyperbole withstanding) — especially at home. The Marlins have the best home record (20-11) in all of baseball, while the Rays have vastly underperformed on the road. Tampa Bay has gone 11-20 away from the Trop, having dropped their last eight road games.

Besides the fact that Tampa Bay won all four meetings against Miami last season, a handful of things favor the Rays. First, Tampa Bay has strung together five consecutive wins (and 13 of-their-last 14) against the Marlins. Also, despite their MLB leading home record, the Marlins have dropped four straight at Marlins Park. What’s more, they lost ace RHP Jose Fernandez, reigning NL rookie of the year, to Tommy John surgery. A caveat however: the rest of the pitching rotation has been solid, and Miami’s offense — led by OF Giancarlo Stanton (.311 BA, 16 HR, 51 RBI) — ranks second in the NL in runs.

Pitching-1
Rays and Marlins series starters.
Rays and Marlins offensive production at home and away.
Rays and Marlins offensive production at home and away.
Rays and Marlins, by the numbers.
Rays and Marlins, by the numbers.

Randy Wolf: The Rays, as a team, have accrued all of 1/3 of an inning of work against Randy Wolf in the last three years — back in 2012, when Wolf was a member of the Orioles. Wolf was signed by the Marlins following the announcement of Fernandez’s season ending surgery. After a couple of relief outings, Wolf put together a 5 IP/9 H/6 R/4 ER outing against the Brewers in a 7-1 loss May 25th. The 37 year-old LHP has a fairly hittable fastball, curveball, and change up — especially when he leaves those pitches up, on the glove side of the plate.

Contact heat chart. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
Contact heat chart. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)

Henderson Alvarez: Alvarez left Wednesday’s start in Washington with right elbow stiffness, saying he’s had the same feeling in two of his last three starts. Overall, he is 0-5 with a 6.28 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay. Key match ups: Desmond Jennings (4-10, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Matt Joyce (2B, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (6-10, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-6, HR, 2 RBI), Ben Zobrist (6-14, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB).

Tom Koehler: The Rays last faced Koehler a year ago when he posted a very good 8 IP/7 H/3 R outing, resulting in a Marlins’ loss. Though he’s coming off a pair of losses, his last start resulted in a seven inning, three-run quality outing. What can be expected out of the Marlins 27 year-old RHP? The Rays need to be prepared for a mid 90’s fastball with good run, and an quality 12-6 curve ball with a lot of depth.

Here’s an example of Koehler’s fastball, thrown at 94 mph to Hector Gimenez in a game against the ChiSox. (GIF courtesy of Fangraphs)
Here’s an example of Koehler’s fastball, thrown at 94 mph to Hector Gimenez in a game against the ChiSox. (GIF courtesy of Fangraphs)
Here’s an example of Koehler’s curveball, resulting in a strikeout of Dayan Viciedo.
Here’s an example of Koehler’s curveball, resulting in a strikeout of Dayan Viciedo.

Key match ups: Desmond Jennings (2-2, BB), James Loney (1-3, 2B), Jose Molina (1-3), Ben Zobrist (1-4).

Jacob Turner: The Rays have never faced Turner, who’s described by John Sickels of Minor League Ball as being, “A 6-5, 210 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born May 21, 1991. Turner can hit 95 MPH but usually works at 90-93, using a two-seamer to generate sinking action and ground balls rather than pure velocity. He mixes in a curveball and changeup, both rated highly-positively by scouts, and he’s added a cutter this spring. With a four-pitch arsenal and a good feel for his craft, he has the upside of a number two starter. His velocity has returned to normal over the last six weeks and the Tigers are pleased with the progress of his secondary pitches.”

Noteworthiness

  • It’s a loss of confidence more than anything else right now with our guys. They need our support & they will get it. It’s not complicated. — Joe Maddon (via Twitter)
  • Maddon went on, “I truly believe our offense is better than this.” Playing the role of contrarian, Evan Longoria noted that the morale is there, so is belief they can turn it around, but the concern is that they get too far back, and dig too deep a hole. “We’re not playing good baseball, we’re not doing the little things right,” said Longoria. On the subject of the offense, Longoria continued, the “Confidence level isn’t there.”
  • James Loney has a team-leading .293 average, 26 points higher than the next regular. He collected three hits over his final seven at-bats of the weekend series against the Boston Red Sox. Loney has struck out just four times in his past 10 games.
  • Shocker, Jose Molina went hitless in six at-bats in the series against the Red Sox, and has just four hits in his last 27 (.148) with no runs and no RBI.
  • Ouch. Tampa Bay has 14 consecutive starts without a win for Rays starters, matching the longest stretch since 2010-11.
  • Ben Zobrist is 9-for-18, with two homers in five games at Marlins Park.
  • Adeiny Hechavarria has a modest four-game hitting streak, with two of those having been multi-hit contests. He went 5-for-11 (.455) in the Braves series. Hechavarria has been going the other way with his swings, something he did early in the season when his average flirted around .300.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: A Look at the Previous Month of Rays Baseball (May)

Ali Solis' nasal contusion is a good metaphor for the Rays' month of May. (Photo courtesy of Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
Ali Solis’ nasal contusion is a good metaphor for the Rays’ month of May. (Photo courtesy of Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays concluded a 12-17 month of May with a 7-1 loss in Boston, Saturday. It’s safe to say this isn’t what was hoped for by anyone, following their 11-16 April. This may be an oversimplification of things, but at 23-33 the Rays need to start playing better baseball, plain and simple. To reference things a bit, Tampa Bay was 30-24 after the first two months of play last season.

Hmph.

As I did at the end of April, below is a comparison of the pitching and offense in May of this season, with that of the season prior. Some things are pleasantly surprising, while others…not so much.

First off, we saw the return of Alex Cobb from the DL, lending some stability to the starting rotation. Heath Bell was released from his contract after only 17-1/3 innings of work, while Brandon Gomes was optioned back to Triple-A Durham on the heels of a five game stretch where he relinquished four homers and six runs. The month ended with the additions of Ryan Hanigan, Brandon Guyer, and Wil Myers to the DL. We also can’t forget about the month ending, five game losing streak.

The numbers speak for themselves:

A comparison of starting and relief pitching in May, between 2013 and 2014.
A comparison of starting and relief pitching in May, between 2013 and 2014.
Offense-1
A comparison of the offense in May, between 2013 and 2014.

The pitchers (starting and relief combined) gave up fewer runs last month than they had in May of 2013 — 127 R (114 ER) vs. 139 R (127 ER). Yet, their ahem…winning deficiency extends from an unproductive offense.

The offensive numbers are down across the board in all the areas they shouldn’t be. Because of it, their run production is also down. Consider that Tampa Bay scored 61 fewer runs last month than they had the year prior. That is, they scored 105 runs (or an average of 3.62 runs per game) compared to 166 runs (or an average of 5.92 runs per game) — a differential of runs scored vs. runs allowed of -.76 this season, and almost +1 at this point the year prior. It’s simple really; if the Rays are going to relinquish — on average — just over four runs per game, they need to score more than 3.62 runs.

Standard offensive numbers in May 2013. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
Standard offensive numbers in May 2013. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
Screen Shot 2014-06-01 at 5.20.05 PM
Standard offensive numbers in May 2014. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)

It’s well and great that David DeJesus, Sean Rodriguez, and Brandon Guyer led the team in slugging percentage in the month of May. However Evan Longoria, Wil Myers, James Loney, and Ben Zobrist are the ones who were expected to carry the team, which they didn’t last month. On the bright side, the Rays win percentage increased by 29 points from April to May. Unfortunately, their Pythagorean Expectation dropped by 22 points, from .475 to .453. That 22 point drop was directly proportional to the lack of offensive production. In short, from here on out, the big boppers on the roster need to come through if the team is going to put together a solid four months of baseball.

 

 

Myers to the DL, Rays Call Up Jerry Sands, Rays 6/1/14 Starting Lineup

The Rays have placed OF Wil Myers on the 15-day DL, after incurring a sprained wrist in a collision with Desmond Jennings in Friday night’s game. In turn, Tampa Bay has activated 1B/OF Jerry Sands from the Durham Bulls. INF Tim Beckham was moved to the 60-day DL in order to make room for Sands on the 40-man roster. This promises to a be crazy day for Sands, who hasn’t arrived yet, but is batting cleanup for the Rays at Fenway.

Sands, claimed off waivers from the Pirates in December, slashed .268 BA/.432 OBP/.646 SLG/1.078 OPS with nine homers and 36 RBI with the Bulls this season. In 70 big-league games with the Dodgers (between 2011 and 2012) Sands hit .244 with four home runs and 27 RBI.

Rays 6/1/14 Lineup

Zobrist RF
Escobar SS
Longoria 3B
Sands DH
Rodriguez LF
Jennings CF
Loney 1B
Molina C
Forsythe 2B
Bedard LHP

Noteworthiness

  • For the second straight day, the Rays own worst record in AL.
  • “When things are going bad, you find ways to lose games.” — Alex Cobb
  • Cobb believes the team is much better than this, but must start to show it soon.