The New What Next: Rays vs. Mariners — A Series Preview of Sorts

It's not that much of a head scratcher, Joe. On the days when the pitching excels, the offense should give them some run support. And on those days, when the offense does well, the pitching shouldn't give up 11 runs. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
It’s not that much of a head scratcher, Joe. On the days when the pitching excels, the offense should give them some run support. And on those days, when the offense does well, the pitching shouldn’t give up 11 runs. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

On the heels of their 10th consecutive loss — and third consecutive series sweep — the Tampa Bay Rays will start another four game series at the Trop, this time against the Seattle Mariners (31-28). Blame the pitching staff for Thursday’s loss; the Rays’ hurlers allowed three runs in each of the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings, and two more in the ninth. So far, on their all important “18-out-of-21 games at home in June” stand, Tampa Bay is 0-2. Ouch.

At least, uhh…this happened:

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Danger, Will Robinson…Danger! If the Rays want to win the series against the Mariners, they’re going to have to do better than they have. At 8-2 over a 10 game span, Seattle is currently on a five game winning streak in which they’ve outscored their opponents 26-9.

It bears mentioning, as Adam Lewis of MLB.com notes, “Tampa Bay won two of three games against Seattle in a Safeco Field series in May, and the Rays hold a 24-14 advantage over the Mariners since 2010. The Mariners haven’t won a series at Tropicana Field since 2008, when they went 2-1. Since then, the Rays have won 15 of 21 games against them at The Trop.” Then again, the reeling Rays have gone 5-15 following the culmination of that series, whereas the Mariners have gone 10-8.

Rays and Mariners series starters.
Rays and Mariners series starters.
Rays and Mariners offensive numbers at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Mariners offensive numbers at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Mariners, by the numbers.
Rays and Mariners, by the numbers.

Chris Young: Young continues to make a bid for comeback players of the year; he’s allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his 10 starts, including wins in his previous two. The 35 year-old RHP has surrendered 10 homers over 63-1/3 innings, but only 46 hits overall — five combined in his last two outings. Young is 1-1 in two career starts against Tampa Bay, giving up nine runs in nine innings. What can be expected out of Young? The soft tossing lefty tends to pound the glove side of the zone with a mid-to-upper 80’s fastball, and a upper 70’s slider. This could be a good opportunity to get back on the winning side of things for the Rays. …Then again, we all know how well the Rays have fared against soft tossing pitchers this season (ahem, Buehrle and Wolf). Key match ups: Yunel Escobar (2-3), Matt Joyce (3-3), James Loney (6-20, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-2, 2B).

Chris Young heat zone. (Courtesy of ESPN)
Chris Young heat zone. (Courtesy of ESPN)

Roenis Elias: The Rays missed the 25 year-old lefty on their trek through the west coast in May. Elias features a knee buckling, wipeout curveball that, when paired with a fastball that sits 91-94 MPH, is downright filthy. He does have a downside however, his delivery isn’t repeatable at present, which leads to major concerns over his command/control profile. Ideally speaking, the Rays — who are traditionally good at working good at-bats — could have fun against Elias if they are patient at the plate, and can force mistakes.

Felix Hernandez: King Felix…need I say any more? The Rays were able to tag Hernandez for four runs on eight hits a month ago, standing as the only game he’s given up more than three runs all season. Since that start (we’ll call it ill fated, relatively speaking of course), Hernandez has averaged almost eight innings and just over one run per start. Key match ups: David DeJesus (11-34, 3 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB), Logan Forsythe (2-7), Evan Longoria (6-21, RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (4-15, 2B, 3 RBI).

Monday’s starter: TBA

Noteworthiness

  • Tampa Bay is 7-for-65 with runners in scoring position during its losing streak after snapping a 0-for-31 run in the 11-6 loss to Miami on Thursday.
  • Look at the bright side, Evan Longoria is beginning to warm up with seven hits in his last 20 at-bats, but has only two RBI in 18 games.
  • Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager boasts three homers and eight RBI in the last seven games and leads the team with nine and 37, respectively.
  • Marc Topkin writes, “The M’s come to town on a roll, having won five straight over the Tigers, Yankees and Braves. The success under new manager Lloyd McClendon has been a team effort, with strong starting pitching, a solid (though occasionally adventurous) bullpen led by former Ray Fernando Rodney and an offense that has been productive despite a lower batting average than the Rays, anchored by former Yankees star Robinson Cano. 3B Kyle Seager has been hot lately.”
  • Eno Sarris of Fangraphs writes, “The Rays may be in a new position when it comes to this year’s trade deadline. Since their playoff odds have dropped more than any other team’s since the beginning of the season and are now close to 5%, it’s at least hard to see them as buyers. Then again, they haven’t made a ton of in-season acquisitions in their more competitive past, and their team is built for 2015 as much as it was built for this year — it’s likely that their transition from buyers to sellers may come without many big moves.”

Rays 6/5/14 Starting Lineup, Etc.

Third base coach Tom Foley pays tribute to Don Zimmer by wearing his name and number on his jersey. (Photo courtesy of Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Third base coach Tom Foley pays tribute to Don Zimmer by wearing his name and number on his jersey. (Photo courtesy of Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

The New What Next

The Rays will try to bounce back from a nine-game losing skid this afternoon at the Trop. Jake Odorizzi will toe the rubber against Jacob Turner in the final game of this year’s Citrus Series. You can read about the pitching match up in our series preview.

Rays 6/5/14 Starting Lineup

DeJesus DH
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Escobar SS
Kiermaier RF
Solis C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Goodbye, Don Zimmer

Don Zimmer watches batting practice back in 2009.  (Photo courtesy of Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Don Zimmer watches batting practice back in 2009. (Photo courtesy of Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The Rays dropped their ninth in a row last night, falling to the Marlins 5-4 at the Trop. Yet, something happened to put things back in perspective — the passing of Don Zimmer. In lieu of a proper game recap (you can read my real time, blow-by-blow account of the game at our Tumblr page), what follows is my goodbye to Don Zimmer — may you rest in peace, Zim.

A teary-eyed Todd Kalas broke the news of Don Zimmer’s passing in the bottom of the fifth inning of last night’s game. Moments later, a camera man/lady panned to the Rays dugout, where an emotional Tom Foley was seen wiping tears from his eyes. It started to sink in at that point, my all-time favorite baseball personality was gone after 83 years — 66 of which were spent in a baseball uniform. That’s when the tears started to fall from my eyes.

First, a short Don Zimmer primer.

Zimmer broke in to the big leagues in 1954 with the Brooklyn Dodgers — a ball-club that featured Jackie Robinson, Duke Snider and Roy Campanella.

Though his playing career would come to an end in 1965, Zimmer’s time in the game was just beginning; he was a coach and player his final two seasons with the Washington Senators, starting Zimmer on a path that would make him a baseball lifer.

Zimmer served four stints as a major league manager: in the mid-late 1970’s with the Boston Red Sox, 1981-1983 with the Rangers, with the Chicago Cubs from 1988-1991, and with the New York Yankees in 1996 — where he found his greatest fame.

Zimmer became a senior advisor for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2004. His role included assisting the team during Spring Training, and during home games. Every year, Zimmer incremented his uniform number by one to match the number of years he has worked in baseball. During the 2014 season he wore #66, seen below.

(Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
(Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Zimmer famously noted that every paycheck he’d ever gotten came from baseball, and that he never held a job in any other profession.

In my opinion, Zimmer represented everything good about baseball. He also exemplified two things to me. The first is simple: hard work and perseverance are what make you successful in life. In Zimmer’s time on the field, his rigor…his push dominated over the innate ability to play the game.

Paul White of USA Today wrote something that speaks to the idea above,

Players at the time (in 1967, when Zimmer was manager of Cincinnati’s Class AAA Buffalo team) often had to leave their teams for a couple of weeks to serve National Guard duty. During one of those stretches, Zimmer, 36, activated himself to fill out the roster.

He even played a bit – and one night hit a home run.

My recollection decades later was that, as a high schooler, I saw a monster homer well up into a light tower in left field, as long a shot as anyone had seen there.

Sitting on the bench during batting practice one day before a Tampa Bay Rays game, I brought up the homer and asked if my memory was correct.

Zimmer’s eyes bulged as if he was about to charge Pedro Martinez.

“Yes, yes, you were there?” he said. “Oh, come with me, young man.”

He pulled me to a group of coaches and clubhouse guys waiting for batting practice to start.

“Tell these guys what you just told me,” Zimmer blurted out with the fervor of some of his best arguments with umpires.

Apparently, Zimmer had been repeating the homer story for years but nobody believed him. Here was verification and vindication that this tale at least wasn’t a tall one.

He later said the only other person who ever backed his story of unlikely power was Earl Weaver, who was managing Rochester against Zimmer that night. Zimmer claimed Weaver added a detail Zim didn’t recall — that Jim Palmer was the opposing pitcher.

The second thing can be best summed up by a Charles Bukowski quote, “Find what you love and let it kill you. Let it drain you of your all. Let it cling onto your back and weigh you down into eventual nothingness.” Baseball was Zimmer’s professional life. He was a wealth of knowledge and history, and Zimmer lived and breathed the game — always making himself available to players whom he mentored.

Don Zimmer not only effected those close to him — family, friends, and colleagues — but those, like me, who grew up watching the charismatic manager. One of the first teams baseball teams I ever followed was the Chicago Cubs. I was a little kid growing up in an area void of Major League Baseball. At that time, the closest Major League franchise was the Atlanta Braves. Thanks to the wonderful world of cable, I latched on to a lovable team from the north-side of Chicago, and their lovable, gerbil checked, manager. Incidentally, that was also when I became aware of DeWayne Staats, but that’s neither here or now.

I can distinctly remember coming home from elementary school, and turning on WGN to watch an afternoon game. Ever present were the personalities that made me love the game: Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg, Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, Jerome Walton, Doug Dascenzo, Joe Girardi, Greg Maddux, Mitch Williams, and Don Zimmer. As a good friend wrote, “My childhood baseball memories are full of Ozzie Smith vs. Sandberg, and Zimmer vs.Whitey Herzog.” I concur. I remember the San Francisco earthquake, more so because it happened during the ’89 World Series — a mere week (or so after) after the Giants defeated the Cubs in the NLCS.

It was that year of baseball, 1989, and that manager who drew me into the game. It was the magic of watching a down on their luck team rising through the ranks. It was watching a team, largely composed of fresh faces, being led to the top even though they were underdogs. Does this sound familiar, Rays fans? It should.

Like many, Zimmer meant the world to me, and he will never be forgotten. Here’s to you, Zim. May you rest in peace with all the baseball gods who came before.

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays will honor Zimmer with a moment of silence prior to the game today, and will conduct a special pre-game ceremony Saturday.
  • Your tweets of the day:

  • Manager Joe Maddon and other Rays reflect on the passing of Don Zimmer, who died in a Dunedin hospital Wednesday at age 83, Video and photo gallery by Will Vragovic, Marc Topkin, and the Tampa Bay Times.

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The Most Important 21 Games of the 2014 Season (Re-Posted From DRaysBay)

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I was in the midst of writing something similar, until I read the piece below on DRaysBay. Drew Laing did an excellent job of making mention of the more pressing factors facing the Rays, and those factors relate to the future of the franchise over the next 21 days.

By: Drew Laing/DRaysBay

The next three weeks are crucial in determining the future of the Tampa Bay Rays.

21 games.

The Tampa Bay Rays are arguably about to enter one of the most important stretches of games you can imagine, when it comes to salvaging a season. Starting tonight against the Miami Marlins, the Rays will have the luxury of playing 18 of their next 21 games at Tropicana Field.

For a team struggling as much as the Rays are right now, and by struggling, I mean 12 games back in the standings, the saying “Home Sweet Home” may never be more appropriate.

The Rays’ struggles by the numbers:

– games lost in a row (longest since 11-game slide in 2009)

17 – runs scored during eight-game losing streak

11 – of those runs were scored in two games.

16 – consecutive games without a win by a SP

218 – runs scored in 2014, which is good for last in the AL

243 – team batting average (22nd in MLB)

The offensive struggles are immense and well-documented. The team’s foundation – pitching and defense – are being completely overshadowed by an anemic offense that couldn’t support the team through three injuries to the starting rotation. Alex Cobb has returned, and Hellickson is on his way, but the offense is slumping worse that we thought, fighting to just score a single run in games. Those losses have hurt, but there’s more at stake over these next three weeks.

The future of this organization is predicated on how the team performs during these 21 games.

Imagine (it may not be hard at this point) if the Rays continue to slide or even hover around .500 for the next 21 games. The Rays will be at the halfway point in the season and less than a month away from the trading deadline. One would think that all but shoves David Price out the door before the trade deadline and with a minor league system that was ranked 20th in the league, its a farm system that is in need of some impact prospects to help down the line.

A closer look at contracts and players like Ben ZobristMatt Joyce or even Grant Balfour could be on the move if the Rays become sellers at the deadline.

Zobrist is eligible for a team option after the season for $7.5 million, but for the kind of offensive production he’s shown so far in 2014, it’s hard to envision the Rays committing that much money to him for next season. His versatility as a switch hitter and a reliable fielder in multiple positions would bring a lot of value to a team that could be looking to plug multiple holes in the field, in turn, bringing more plus prospects over to the Rays.

Joyce will be going through another year of arbitration after earning $3.7 million last off season. Joyce has yet to duplicate his 2011 season where he batted .277 with 19 HR and 75 RBI and earned him an All-Star berth. He’s been unable to garner many opportunities against LHH as the Rays have found most of his value as a DH and necessary outfield replacement against RHP. With Joyce in line to receive a slight bump in salary following this season through arbitration, it would make more sense for the Rays to put feelers out for a potential trade partner who needs a left-handed bat for the stretch run. Joyce probably won’t command as much on the open-market, but the return may be enough to convince the Rays’ brass to pull the trigger on a trade.

And there there’s Balfour’s salary, which  jumps to $7 million in 2015. It would make sense to deal him to a playoff team looking for bullpen help down the stretch, but we’re not talking about any ol’ player in any of these cases.

Although Balfour just returned to the Rays organization, he was an important part of the 2008 World Series run. Joyce has been a mainstay in the Rays outfield since his first full season with the team in 2010. And who symbolizes a “Rays” player more than Ben Zobrist? These are key pieces the Rays would be sending off, and none of that is to mention the King of the trade market chess board: David Price.

Players that have had a direct impact on the turnaround of this franchise could be heading out the door in less than two months if the Rays don’t improve quickly in these 21 games. If the Rays are going to turn it around at any point this season, this may very well be their best shot.

Their opponents over the next 21 games have a combined record of 172-176. The only three games on the road during these 21 games is a three-game series in Houston against the Astros. Out of the six different teams the Rays will play over this stretch, none of them are currently more than two games over .500.

They will face some tough pitching as some projected matchups right now have the Rays facing Felix HernandezAdam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, so it won’t be easy. But the Rays have been hitting the ball better at home with a .268 AVG and .731 OPS compared to just a .222 AVG and .678 OPS on the road.

It is plausible to believe the Rays may right the ship offensively to some degree. It’s just a matter of if they can put it all together, because with their pitching and defense, they don’t need a heck of a lot of offense to win games.

So I would urge you to really tune in, not tune out, and pay attention over these next 21 games. In a worst case scenario, it may not be too long until you see a much different Rays ball club out on the field if things don’t change. In a best case scenario, the Rays put together two hot streaks over the next three weeks and inch their way back to .500, which in this division means real playoff contention.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Eighth Straight, 1-0

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Chris Archer looks on during the game. (Photo courtesy of Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

As I wrote on our Tumblr page, Henderson Alvarez put the death knell on the Rays, capping their worst road trip in franchise history with an 88-pitch, complete game, 1-0 shutout — his third consecutive shutout against an AL team in Interleague Play since he joined the Marlins (extending back to his no hitter in final game of the 2013 season against the Tigers). The Rays ended their road trip without a win, while their frustration was exacerbated by an 0-22 wRISP stretch, and the three momentum killing double plays they grounded into Tuesday night.

If there is a common theme among many — Joe Maddon and Chris Archer included — there really aren’t any words that can sum things up succinctly, expletives withstanding.

As Joe Maddon said in his post game presser,

You have to hide a few of your blemishes. There’s got to be some Clearasil out there somewhere for us.”

A hope remains that the offense can tighten up over the course of their home dominated month of June.

What follows is a game recap in pictures/screenshots, with a few words peppered in here and there. Note: the spikes, peaks, and valleys in the Fangraphs generated Leverage Index correlate with the top of the second, third, fifth, seventh, and eight innings scenarios beneath (all courtesy of ESPN).


Source: FanGraphs

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The second inning.
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The third inning.
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The fifth inning.
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The seventh inning.
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The eighth inning.

Game Peripherals

  • Yunel Escobar tried steal second in the fifth inning, when Henderson Alvarez had the ball in his mitt with his back turned. Escobar was ultimately called out, though Maddon challenged the play which was judged inconclusive. Though Escobar was emphatic in his reaction, there really wasn’t a clear angle to definitively determine whether he got in ahead of the tag or not.
  • Chris Archer put together an excellent 7 IP/5 H/1 ER/2 BB/8 K outing, throwing 93 pitches (65 strikes) and coaxing eight ground outs — including a crucial double play — in the process. He impressively registered 21 (of 26) first pitch strikes, and worked ahead in the count all night. He, unfortunately, relinquished the lone run on a bases loaded walk in the sixth inning. Joel Peralta came on in relief in the eighth inning, and put down the Marlins in order on 13 pitches (12 strikes), striking out two and forcing a groundout. In short, they don’t deserve the fate of the one run loss.

The New What Next

The Rays head back to the Trop Wednesday to continue their four game set against the Marlins. David Price will attempt to put together another quality start against Tom Koehler. The Rays last faced Koehler a year ago when he posted a very good 8 IP/7 H/3 R outing, resulting in a Marlins’ loss. Though he’s coming off a pair of losses, his last start resulted in a seven inning, three-run quality outing. You can read about the pitching match up, and much more, in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 6/4/14 Starting Lineup

DeJesus DH
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Escobar SS
Kiermaier RF
Molina C
Price LHP

Noteworthiness

  • Your tweet of the day comes courtesy of Marc Topkin,

  • David Price confirmed that he was fined by MLB for Friday’s incident. The David Ortiz matter may not be resolved yet.
  • “The Tampa Bay Rays are arguably about to enter one of the most important stretches of games you can imagine, when it comes to salvaging a season. Starting tonight against the Miami Marlins, the Rays will have the luxury of playing 18 of their next 21 games at Tropicana Field,” writes Drew Laing of DRaysBay.
  • Jeremy Hellickson is throwing a bullpen session today at the Trop. It could be the last step before he starts a rehab assignment, and the Rays are eyeing a late June return.