Drew Smyly was good once again in his 5.2/3 H/2 ER/2 BB/7 K outing. He was (presumably) pulled two outs in the sixth inning after throwing 90 pitches because he’s on a limited inning count. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
A day after they closed out the series with a split against those dastardly Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into The Trop for a three game set. For the Rays, they’ll attempt to use their Labor Day win as a springboard for a run in the final month of play. With all reasonable expectations of a postseason berth off the table, there is the running hope they can end the season on a high note.
Toronto continues to wobble it’s way to game 162. The Blue Jays finally won their second series in the month of August, closing out the month with a 4-3 win against the Yankees, Sunday — a horrendous run of play which included a series loss to the Rays the weekend of August 23rd.
Over the last week since their last meeting, Jose Bautista has gone on a power trip, homering in five consecutive games, giving him 29 overall — one more than Edwin Encarnacion. Melky Cabrera tallied a few more hits making him second in the American League with 169. However, the overall offense is lacking. Per Marc Topkin, the high-powered Jays were held to three or fewer runs 15 times in 26 August games, including seven of their last 11.
Rays and Blue Jays series starters (over the last 30 days).Rays and Blue Jays offensive production (at him, away, and over the last 30 days).
RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey gave up three runs — one earned — on five hits over six innings while striking out six and walking two for no decision against the visiting Red Sox. Dickey (10-12, 4.00 ERA) took a loss in his previous two appearances against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay handled the knuckleballer on opening day, tagging Dickey with six runs in five innings. He was much better in July, relinquishing only two runs on five hits and a walk. Such is the life of a knuckleballer. More recently, Dickey’s given up four or more runs in four of his last eight outings. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (3-11, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Ryan Hanigan (1-3, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (6-25, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB).
Marcus Stroman: After being touched for six runs (five earned) on 10 hits against the Rays on August 22nd, Stroman (8-5, 3.88 ERA) held the Red Sox to only one earned run in 7-2/3 innings of work. Despite an excellent home record and ERA, Stroman is 2-3, with a 6.33 ERA on the road. Per his scouting report on BaseballAmerica.com, his change up still needs work, though his fastball and slider appear ready for the big time. Key matchups: Curt Casali (2-3), Yunel Escobar (1-3), Desmond Jennings (2-4, RBI), Matt Joyce (1-2, 2B, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-3, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (2-2, HR, RBI, BB).
Mark Buehrle: Buehrle (11-9, 3.59 ERA) has been an anomaly which the Rays haven’t been able to crack this season. Though they should have won the last two games he’s started, both culminated in extra innings walk-off wins for the Blue Jays. Buehrle is coming off a 6-3 loss against the Yankees, Saturday. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (7-23, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Logan Forsythe (6-10, 2 2B, BB), Brandon Guyer (2-7), Desmond Jennings (9-22, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-1), James Loney (6-24, 3 2B, Evan Longoria (10-36, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB), Jose Molina (14-44, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB), Sean Rodriguez (9-30, 4 2B, 5 RBI), Ben Zobrist (9-24, 2B, 4 RBI, BB).
Noteworthiness
Toronto scored three runs or fewer 15 times in August and its 18 homers were tied for the fourth-fewest in the league.
Dickey is 3-3 with a 4.44 ERA over his last eight starts. He is 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA in his last five starts against Tampa Bay.
The Blue Jays lead the season series seven games to six, while the Rays lead 153-136 overall — they’re 87-57 at Tropicana Field.
Though contract decisions are theoretically based on the full season’s work, play over the final month can sometimes shape the thinking. The Rays don’t have a lot of decisions, with no pending free agents and only two players with options. They can, of course, shift payroll with trades or non-tenders.
He went on:
With so many players under control, the key to offseason flexibility might be trades, for which scouting, plotting and planning are often done now. There are a few players the Rays would be eager to deal, such as RHP Grant Balfour and C Jose Molina, but likely can’t. Some they will consider dealing based on 2015 salaries vs. their recent production, such as OF Matt Joyce, INF/OF Sean Rodriguez and, maybe, RHP Jeremy Hellickson (though LHP Matt Moore’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is part of the equation). And certainly there are a few they could be tempted to deal, such as CF and, you wonder, maybe RF Wil Myers.
It got me thinking — with six outfielders currently on the 25-man roster (not including utility men Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez), the Rays are flush with outfield depth. Too, with a 99.9% chance of irrelevant baseball expected for the upcoming month of play, the Rays front office will — likely — start to refocus its attention to 2015 season.
Rays outfielders offensive and defensive numbers. Note: a good amount of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier’s 2013 statistics were unavailable because they were in Triple-A Durham then. (Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs)
Ahead of the 2014 season, a common theme began to pop up among many a Rays blogger: Tampa Bay needs speed on the base paths. And while I wouldn’t necessarily call it kismet, the additions of Brandon Guyer and Kevin Kiermaier have alleviated that need in a manner of speaking. David DeJesus, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce have all fallen off in the speed department.* Guyer and Kiermaier — along with Jennings and Wil Myers — have made the Rays a much faster team. It goes without saying, with speed comes the ability to prowl the outfield more effectively, which speaks to the UZR of the above mentioned players.
Arm strength is also another concern. While Kiermaier’s cannon has been well documented, Jennings has fallen off significantly, making him a candidate for platoon duty in right field along with David DeJesus and Guyer. A move along these lines would make room for Kiermaier in center, and Joyce and Myers in right.
The question begs, are there any tradable/disposable pieces who could free up payroll space for any future acquisitions to bolster the roster? The simple answer is yes. After all, the Rays don’t need six outfielders (or eight, when you include Zobrist and Rodriguez) on the roster. Who then should go? If we’re talking about trading only one player, I’d have to say Matt Joyce for a few different reasons.
First, his numbers have improved in eight of the 14 categories listed above — with the exceptions of his power numbers (SLG and ISO), speed, fielding, and UZR. Because of those improved numbers, his overall value has increased from $8.7 MM to $11.4 MM. With the increased overall value, Joyce may pull more than the Rays would be willing to dole out next season, an arbitration year. And with the increased overall value, one would assume his trade value could be peaking as well, which could give Tampa Bay an opportunity to trade for a few key pieces in the bullpen. In light of what DeJesus has done this season, over the span he’s played, trading Joyce wouldn’t necessarily be to the detriment of the 2015 roster.
If the intent is to use this season as a checklist of sorts for the next, the Rays’ deficiencies — which are glaring — must be addressed if Tampa Bay wishes to be relevant in 2015. Trading Matt Joyce could, at least, start to address those deficiencies.
Noteworthiness
Some familiar faces will be in the clubhouse today after the roster expansion:
Ali Solis was outrighted off the 40-man roster, and accepted his assignment. The move created a spot for Steve Geltz on the 40-man roster.
In addition to players, the Rays have have called up Class-A Stone Crabs hitting coach Joe Szekely for this week.
Your tweet of the day:
#Rays Maddon wager to add DeJesus to mix hoping he sparks offense, Jennings’ return will make for tougher decisions
Logan Forsythe in a post game interview with Todd Kalas. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
For those of you pining for the acerbity of the Rays and Red Sox games of yore, the acrimonious linkage returned to The Trop Saturday night, in what would go down as one of the more truly bizarre games in recent history. A power outage to start the game, five hit batsmen, and a TKO of Dustin Pedroia later, the Tampa Bay Rays walked away with a combined 7-0, one hit shutout of the Boston Red Sox.
As a storm raged outside of Tropicana Field, a reported lightning strike caused a power surge that resulted in the dimming of some of the stadium lights. After a 12 minute delay, the fireworks began inside.
Both sides went down in order in the first, while Jake Odorizzi racked up the first of seven strikeouts. However, in the second inning, Odorizzi came up and in on with a pitch that squarely nailed Yoenis Cespedes. As Cespedes took his base, he gave Odorizzi a menacing glare — a foreboding warning of what was to come in the bottom of the inning.
As if on cue, Allen Webster hit Evan Longoria with a pitch to start the bottom half of the frame. If this was and intentional act, what followed blew up in the face of John Farrell and his crew. James Loney sent an RBI double to deep right field, scoring Longo from first. Brandon Guyer followed with a single through the left side, and Logan Forsythe walked his way on to load the bases. Ryan Hanigan launched a deep sac-fly into center which put the Rays up 2-0.
…And the next round of fireworks were primed and ready to go off.
Both Guyer and Forsythe aggressively tagged up on Hanigan’s sac-fly as well, with Forsythe’s being the more substantial of the two. Forsythe slid into second head first as Pedroia fielded the throw from center field. When Logan made a swim motion to avoid the tag, his elbow connected with the side of Pedroia’s head. The impact left Pedroia face down on the field — resulting in him leaving the game for precautionary reasons after he exhibited symptoms consistent with a concussion.
Dustin Pedroia is injured after colliding with Logan Forsythe during the second inning. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
Forsythe’s aim wasn’t to injure the Red Sox’s second baseman, and he was clearly apologetic. After the game, Forsythe was asked if he hit Pedroia on purpose,
“Absolutely not. I’m definitely not that kind of player. The only move that I made was to try to swim-move the tag to get out of the way. It was a bang-bang play, and the way he came down, too — it was a hard play.”
Farrell certainly didn’t think Forsythe had any intent to hurt Pedroia,
“Pedey’s coming in to try to put a quick tag on him. Momentum looked like with Forsythe’s head-first slide, he struck him with his elbow, that much was clear,” said Farrell. “It looked like the momentum took him across the bag. He’s reaching out ahead of him to try to brace himself and not slide past the bag. As he’s reaching forward, he caught him with a good elbow to the left side of the head.”
Once the game resumed, Ben Zobrist hit a grounder to second that scored Guyer from third. Zobrist beat out the throw on the back end of the double play attempt, but Wil Myers struck out to end the inning with a 3-0 lead.
With two on and one out in the fourth, Webster hit Kevin Kiermaier with a pitch on the hands to load the bases with one out. For whatever reason, Farrell challenged call to see if the ball made contact with Kiermaier or the bat. The call was quickly confirmed. Zobrist put the Rays up 4-0 with an RBI ground out. But with a pair of runners in scoring position, Myers ended the inning with his second strikeout of the night.
Tampa Bay scored three more runs in the fifth inning. It all started with Matt Joyce and Longo on base following a walk and single (respectively). Brandon Guyer laid down a beautiful bunt that only David Ross could field. However, Ross’s throw was offline and the Rays base runners were off and running after the ball bounded away. Joyce and Longo both scored, putting the Rays up by six runs. Forsythe, appropriately, scored the final run on a sac-fly to right that plated Guyer and gave the Rays a 7-0 lead.
Overall, Jake Odorizzi was outstanding. He stayed out of trouble until the seventh when he looked like he was running out of gas. Jake walked the bases loaded with two outs, but managed to induce a weak popper out of Xander Bogaerts to get out of the jam unscathed.
Odorizzi tinkered under the hood between starts, rebounding nicely following his rough outing Monday. Of note, he followed through better rather than “spinning off pitches.”
“I was rotational last time and today I was down through,” Odorizzi said. “It wasn’t running, it was going right where I wanted it to and kept it where I wanted to.
“The action was completely different than the other day. [Monday night] was just kind of a weird thing had happened. Minor tweak changes it and changes everything. But when you get in that habit during the game, it’s kind of a tough thing to adjust when you’re in the heat of battle type of thing. But I worked on it in the ‘pen, got back to normal.”
He had a particularly deadly cutter/slider combo that that baffled Cespedes in the top of the seventh. Odorizzi’s final line: 7.0 IP/1 H/0 ER/3 BB/7 K on 103 pitches (65 strikes).
The New What Next
Alex Cobb will oppose Clay Buchholz and the Red Sox, Sunday afternoon. If I may, Buchholz (5-8, 5.77 ERA) has been abysmal this season. The Red Sox are 4-8 in their last 12 games when Buchholz has taken the mound. Meanwhile, the 30 year-old RHP has given four or more runs in seven of those 12 games. Red Sox GM Ben suggested that Buchholz doesn’t have a consistent feel for his secondary pitches, namely his changeup. “He’s always been a guy who’s gotten hitters out with his entire mix, not by being a fastball-dominant pitcher, not by relying exclusively on one pitch, but by mixing and using all his pitches in all parts of the zone and being hard to hit because he’s unpredictable,” Said Cherington. “He just has not had a feel for the entire mix this year. That’s sort of the end result.” You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Rays 8/31/14 Starting Lineup
Kiermaier CF
Guyer LF
Joyce RF
Longoria 3B
Loney DH
Forsythe 2B
Escobar SS
Molina C
Rodriguez 1B
Cobb RHP
Noteworthiness
Wil Myers went 0-5 with two strikeouts and six LOB. Ouch.
The other two Rays who were hit by pitches were Guyer in the seventh, and Hanigan in the eighth for a grand total of four.
Tampa Bay is expected to call up Curt Casali, Brandon Gomes, and Steve Geltz. They also plan to activate David DeJesus Monday. Geltz will wear number 54, and the Rays will have to make a 40-man roster move to add him.
On the subject of trading Yunel Escobar, Marc Topkin wrote, “Trading SS Yunel Escobar or even letting him go to the A’s via last week’s waiver claim might have been a popular move, including in some corners of the clubhouse. But the Rays had several reasons not to: They are confident he will play next season more like his stellar 2013 and less like this year; don’t fear him being an attitude or behavioral problem; didn’t feel they have anyone else in house to play short for what they expect to be a contending team (not comfortable that Ben Zobrist could handle it every day in a season he’ll turn 34, or that Nick Franklin is good enough defensively, or that either Hak-Ju Lee or Tim Beckham will be ready coming off major knee injuries); and weren’t likely to sign or acquire anyone as good for as little as they’ll pay Escobar ($5 million).”
David Ortiz walks back to the dugout after he flied out to center. (Photo courtesy of Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
It didn’t feel like a Rays/Red Sox game Friday night. It also didn’t feel like a contest that was relevant or important — and let’s be honest, it wasn’t. From the half empty stands to the hushed crowd, the atmosphere at The Trop felt stale. And despite what Joe Maddon said, about the Rays still having a shot at the playoffs, the good guys are playing as though they’ve resigned themselves to mediocrity. The first and second innings epitomized that feeling to a T. If only the Rays could be credited with a win based on their play in segments, not as a whole — they easily would have won the game from the third through ninth innings.
Let’s look at the first and second innings.
Brock Holt led off the game with a 3-2 single to right. Dustin Pedroia followed with a five pitch walk, advancing Holt to second base. Chris Archer, though missing his location in the first two at-bats — something that would plague him throughout the course of his start — was able to coax a fly-ball out of David Ortiz for the first out of the inning, yet Yoenis Cespedes put the Sox on the board early with a single to right; scoring Holt from second and advancing Pedroia advanced to third. Daniel Nava followed a strikeout of Mike Napoli with an RBI single which moved Cespedes to second. Down by two with two outs, Archer made the Rays first error of the night on a ball off the bat of Mookie Betts, loading the bases for Will Middlebrooks who hit an RBI single up the middle. Three runs and 28 pitches later, Archer was able to coax a grounder out of Christian Vazquez to end the inning. The second inning wasn’t much better.
Holt led off the second with another single, bringing Pedroia to the plate. Pedroia promptly lined out to Joyce in right field for the first out. With one out, and the shift on for Big Papi, Archer coaxed what should have been an inning ending double play — yet wasn’t. James Loney fielded the ball at first and promptly threw to Yunel Escobar to get the lead runner at second. Yet — in a moment of deja vu — Escobar threw wide of first on the back end of the play and failed to turn another double play for the second time in two days. The failed play, which should have ended the inning, proved costly. Cespedes plated Boston’s fourth run on a double to right… And Boston still wasn’t done. Archer proceeded to walk and hit the next two batters (Mike Napoli and Daniel Nava respectively) which loaded the bases for Mookie Betts. Betts responded by hitting a 1-0 grand slam to left field.
A Rays loss was a forgone conclusion by that point. Regardless of Kevin Kiermaier’s RBI single to center in the second, Brandon Guyer’s two run no doubter to left in the fifth, or the late one run uprising in the ninth, Escobar’s throwing error was responsible for an unrecoverable five-run second inning. To put it bluntly, Escobar, over the last two games, has cost the Rays seven runs and two wins, thanks to three egregious throwing errors.
The New What Next
Jake Odorizzi will butt heads with Allen Webster and the Red Sox tonight. Webster (3-2, 5.81 ERA) put together a good three hit/two run outing against Tampa Bay back at the end of July — his first start with the Red Sox. He’s given up 18 runs in 25-2/3 innings since, good for a 6.31 ERA. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Rays 8/30/14 Starting Lineup
Zobrist SS
Myers RF
Joyce DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Forsythe 2B
Hanigan C
Kiermaier CF
Odorizzi RHP
Noteworthiness
Neither Yunel Escobar or Desmond Jennings are in tonight’s lineup. Jennings has sore left knee. And Escobar? Joe Maddon, in yesterday’s pre-game show (on WDAE) mentioned that he wanted to give Escobar a day-off/mental break somehow. I suspect this is how he’s going about that.
Back in May, when the Rays were mired in their worst play of the season, I just wanted to see them play consistent baseball. Then June happened, and the potential for a postseason berth seemed reasonable. Joe Maddon set a goal for the team to reach .500 in a specific window of time. While that window had to be expanded, Tampa Bay reached .500 — even though the promise of the postseason faded. At this point and again, I’d just like to see Tampa Bay play solid ball.
Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers DH
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Kiermaier RF
Archer RHP
Noteworthiness
The Rays committed errors in their last five games — the longest streak since May of 2012 when they committed errors in seven consecutive games. Of note: That was right after Longoria got hurt, and everyone was playing in different positions every night.
