The Yankees at Al Lang Stadium, in St. Pete: A scene from Spring Training in 1957.
Rays 9/9/14 Starting Lineup
Zobrist 2B
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Joyce LF
Escobar SS
Kiermaier CF
Hanigan C
Archer RHP
Noteworthiness
Evan Longoria’s 12 career home runs at this Yankee Stadium are the most by a visiting player in the park’s six-year history.
Rays starters have a 3.46 ERA this season — the second lowest in the AL and sixth lowest in the major. A caveat: they are 48-49. Moreover, Chris Archer is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA (10-IP, 13-ER) over his last two starts. Before that, allowed only one earned run in each of his four previous starts.
Per Marc Topkin, the Rays are set to announce today whether LHP Drew Smylyis being shut down for the season with a career-high 153 innings or will make one more start Friday in Toronto. We’ll update this piece as the news breaks.
The end is nigh. The Tampa Bay Rays will follow their recent 4-6 home stand with their penultimate road trip of the season. First stop New York, where the Rays are set to start a three game series against the Bronx Bummers.
Tampa Bay has been relegated to two roles for the remainder of the 2014 season:
Spoilers
A team that can finish the final month of play strongly
As it relates to task number one, the Rays took two-of-three from the Orioles this weekend past. However, at 3-4 with a -10 run differential, the Rays haven’t really played that well in September. To be fair, at 3-3 over their last six games, neither have the Yankees — a team who is struggling to stay relevant down the final stretch.
New York is coming off a three game series in which they were blanked twice by the Kansas City Royals. Doomed by fielding gaffes, the Yankees committed four errors in that aforementioned series, though they did not give up an earned run in either shutout. With a 5-7 mark in its last 12 games and a 3-3 record so far in their nine-game home stand, New York has dropped behind Cleveland in the race for the second Wildcard spot and will need to pass three teams in the final three weeks to make the postseason.
The Yankees have won the last two meetings with the Rays, the second coming on Kuroda’s August 17 start (opposite of Jeremy Hellickson). Those defeats began an extended stretch of struggles for the Rays, as they’ve gone 8-14 since reaching .500 after dropping 18 games under the break-even mark.
Rays and Yankees series starters (over the last 30 days).Rays and Yankees offensive production (at home, away, and over the last 30 days).Rays and Yankees (by the numbers).
Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda (10-8, 3.78 ERA) has faced Tampa Bay three times in 2014, going 1-1 with a 3.10 ERA. Moreover, the Yankees RHP has been very good lately, going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in his last four starts, including a seven inning, one-run outing against Boston last Wednesday. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (3-8, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (9-23, 2B, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (10-24, 2B, HR, 7 RBI), Wil Myers (3-5, RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (6-21, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB).
Chris Capuano: The Rays have faced the 36 year-old Capuano (2-3, 4.46 ERA) twice out of the pen this season when he was with the Red Sox. He threw 2-1/3 clean innings of work, though Tampa Bay blasted him to the tune of six runs (five earned) in his previous 4-1/3 innings of work. Per Fangraphs, in Capuano’s four starts with the Yankees, his changeup has generated 63.3% ground balls, and his slider, 55.6%. The change piece has also coaxed 26.4% swinging strikes in that time. Those rates are significantly different from those of his prior stints, whether from earlier this season or in recent campaigns. He’s had over arching problems with the home run, and hard-hit balls in general, but he’s enjoyed some better outcomes since moving to the Bronx. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (3-5, 3 RBI), James Loney (4-7, 4 RBI), Evan Longoria (1-4, 2B), Wil Myers (2-2), Sean Rodriguez (1-4), Ben Zobrist (1-4, RBI).
Michael Pineda: The Rays will face Pineda (3-4, 1.80 ERA) for the first time this season on Thursday. Pineda made his way to the Yankees from the Mariners a few years back. As Ian Malinowski wrote of Pineda back in 2012,
“First off, here is Pineda’s pitch mixture. His slider is his best pitch, and he throws it a lot. There are some concerns that heavy slider use makes a pitcher more injury prone. Don’t take my numbers as meaning that he throws it more than his fastball, though. If you combine my three types of fastball (and my classifications are painfully far from gospel), you get 61% fastball, 30% slider, and 8% changeup. His changeup is a work in progress, but I wouldn’t write it off (remember, he’s only 22). Despite Pineda’s flyable tendencies, the changeup actually got 51% ground balls when it was put in play last year (the slider 49%, the fastballs all under 30%).”
You can read more on Pineda via Fangraphs. Key matchups: David DeJesus (2-8), Yunel Escobar (3-9, 2B, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (1-4).
Noteworthiness
The Rays lead the season series against New York 8-5, including 5-1 at Yankee Stadium; The Yankees lead 170-118 overall, 92-52 in New York, though it’s 26-26 since 2009.
A couple of interesting charts on Evan Longoria; one offensive, and one defensive:
Interesting. Longoria’s homers in heat-map form between the first half and second.Why is Evan Longoria’s Defensive Runs Saved total down so much in 2014? (Courtesy of Mark Simon/ESPN)
Per MLB Trade Rumors, Drew Smyly is benefiting from the Rays’ focus on analytics. Upon joining the team, the Rays gave the 25-year-old some keen instruction and asked him elevate his fastball more. Those tips have led to some great work by Smyly in Tampa Bay and Rosenthal (the initial source of the piece) wonders why the Tigers didn’t pick up on some of the same. things.
Evan Longoria’s 12 career home runs at this Yankee Stadium are the most by a visiting player in the park’s six-year history.
Rays starters have a 3.46 ERA this season — the second lowest in the AL and sixth lowest in the major. A caveat: they are 48-49. Moreover, Chris Archer is 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA (10-IP, 13-ER) over his last two starts. Before that, allowed only one earned run in each of his four previous starts.
Joel Peralta got hit hard, again? In other news, concrete is hard, and water is wet.
First, Evan Longoria and James Loney went back-to-back with homers in the first inning — the first set of back-to-back homers since June 19 vs the Astros:
Click the photo to be redirected to video of Evan Longoria and James Loney’s back-to-back homers in the first inning.
Then this happened, and it was was pretty cool:
But in the sixth — with Helly being Helly — this happened:
Nelson Cruz celebrates his two run home run during the sixth inning. Click the photo to be redirected to video of Cruz’s two run shot. (Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay/AP Photo)
Though Kevin Kiermaier responded with a solo shot of his own in the bottom of the sixth inning, extending the lead to two runs:
Kevin Kiermaier gets a handshake from teammate Jose Molina after crossing the plate following a solo home run during the sixth inning. Click the photo to be redirected to video of Kiermaier’s solo shot. (Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay/AP Photo)
While the Rays tied the game at five, Joel Peralta allowed this to happen in the 11th inning giving the Orioles the go-ahead runs:
Nelson Cruz watches his two run home run during the eleventh inning. (Photo couretesy of Reinold Matay/AP Photo)
In other words, the game was par for the course for Joel Peralta and the Tampa bay Rays. And in light of the handling of the Rays by the Orioles, urm…Nelson Cruz, something popped in my head:
If you’re looking at the end of this season as a testing ground for the 2015 season — like I am — a picture of who is expendable emerges. I wouldn’t be surprised if a trade involving Matt Joyce and SeanRod comes to pass. Also expendable are Cesar Ramos, Jose Molina (no brainer), and Joel Peralta — which is sad since he’s played an integral role in the bullpen and the clubhouse for the last few years. When Matt Moore comes back, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Hellickson moved into the long reliever role.
Maddon said he expects to talk to executive VP Andrew Friedman on tonight’s flight to New York about whether they will shut down LHP Drew Smyly for the season after a career-most 153 innings or give him one more start. They will decide by Tuesday, when Smyly would throw his bullpen session.
Drew Smyly put together another outstanding start Saturday afternoon. His final line 6 IP/4 H/1 ER/2 BB/8 K on 96 pitches (63 strikes, 66% K%). (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
It a shame that Drew Smyly had to be pulled early because of his inning watch, especially since he put together another outstanding start Saturday afternoon. It’s also a pity that the Rays couldn’t preserve the one run lead that unfortunately found Smyly in no decision territory. Nevertheless, both scenarios came to pass in the Rays 3-2, walk-off victory against the Orioles. The Rays have now made it two in a row against the Orioles, and they’ll attempt a sweep in the series finale this afternoon.
With the exception of a pitch down, and on the outer third of the plate — which Chris Davis powered for a solo shot down the right field line — Smyly was dominant once again.
Credit where it’s due, Chris Davis converted a well executed pitch into a run in the second. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
A common theme has arisen in his seven starts with Tampa Bay, Smyly again coaxed good number of weak poppers on his riding fastball which he threw up in the zone (46 total, 26 strikes, 12 whiffs), while also forcing the Orioles sluggers to pound the ball into the turf on pitches at the bottom of the zone. Despite three wRISP scenarios in the first, second and fifth innings, Drew calmly made those all important big pitches to limit the Orioles to just one run in six innings — a Nelson Cruz comebacker in the first; a Jonathan Schoop groundout, and a Nick Markakis strikeout with a runner on third in the second; a Steve Pearce foul out to Smyly, and a Adam Jones strikeout with a runner on second in the sixth. Much like Alex Cobb Friday, Smyly did what he does best: move the ball around the zone and effectively change speeds on the batters to keep the Orioles off balance.
Drew Smyly at-bat outcome chart. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
I hate comparing David Price and Smyly because it really is like trying to find analogous connections between apples and oranges. While it really is low hanging fruit, I can’t help but indulge.
Drew Smyly: 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts in seven starts since joining the Rays; Smyly’s ERA is the lowest for any pitcher in their first seven starts in Tampa Bay Rays history.
David Price: 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 53 strikeouts in seven starts since the trade.
Joel Peralta took over for Smyly in the seventh, and promptly gave up a line drive off Nick Hundley’s bat that bounced off of the wall — one railing (or a couple of inches) shy of being the game-tying homer. Instead, Hundley was held to a hard hit single. Peralta recovered quickly and paired with lefty Jeff Beliveau to strike out the rest of the side.
In a moment of role reversal, Jake McGee took over in the eighth, though he did not have one of his better innings. After a leadoff walk of Steve Pearce — who was immediately replaced by pinch-runner Quentin Barry — McGee got Jones to pop up for the first out, yet things unraveled with Nelson Cruz at the plate.
Jake attempted a pick off throw to first that went well beyond the outstretched arm of James Loney, advancing Berry to second. Cruz converted the errant throw into a run with a game tying base hit. Chris Davis moved Cruz to second on a single of his own — Showalter pinched Cruz for the quicker David Lough. Looking to take the lead, Delmon Young hit a screamer that Longo was able to grab. With a snap throw to Zobrist at second, Lough was doubled up to end the inning.
Boxberger came out in the ninth and put together a 1-2-3 top of the inning, featuring two beautiful strikeouts.
Offensively, Tampa Bay answered the above mentioned Chris Davis homer in the third inning with a pair of runs. After a Curt Casali strikeout and a Ben Zobrist walk (one of four), David DeJesus moved Zo to third on a base hit to put runners on the corners. Longo followed with a sac-fly to center to knot the game at one apiece, bringing Loney to the plate. Loney hit a single to left that allowed DeJesus to advance to second. Wil Myers capped off the scoring in the third with a liner to center to which scored DeJesus from second. The typically dependable Adam Jones got a glove on the ball, but couldn’t keep it in the webbing.
Ryan Flaherty helped the Rays stage a walk-off in the ninth with some shotty defense. Flaherty had some trouble with Yunel Escobar’s hard grounder, following with a throw (to first) that Chris Davis couldn’t handle. While the throw looked catchable, Flaherty was charged with the error, and Escobar was safe at first base. Kevin Kiermaier moved Escobar to second on an excellent sac-bunt to second, and Curt Casali sent him to third on a sac-fly to center. Brad Brach intentionally walked Ben Zobrist before being replaced by Andrew Miller.
Ryan Hanigan would be called upon to pitch hit for DeJesus against the left handed Miller — an interesting decision since Hanigan has better splits against righties. On the second pitch of the at-bat, Miller let loose with a pitch that was well out of the reach of Nick Hundley’s glove. Escobar hustled home from third to give the Rays a passed ball walk-off win.
While the game was meaningless in the context of things, it is nice to see a win. As I alluded to previously, solid performances at the end of a meaningless season can be viewed as a springboard for the upcoming season. If anything, we can get a general idea of who will fit where next year.
The New What Next
Jeremy Hellickson will attempt to close the door on the Orioles and the home stand this afternoon against Bud Norris. Helly is coming off an abysmal four inning start against the Red Sox. I’d argue, if anything, he’s fighting for his spot in the 2015 starting rotation. While Norris (12-8, 3.83 ERA) was very good against Tampa Bay last season — posting a 1-1 record in 9-1/3 innings of work — the Rays were able to tag him for four runs on six hits, back on Augsut 28th. His most impressive start came as an Astro, putting together a 7 IP/6 H/1 R outing against Roberto Hernadez. Norris’ change-up has vastly improved over previous seasons. It’s coaxed a modest number of whiffs (10.3%), and a hefty number of grounders (65.7%). His change-up pairs well with a plus slider. You can read about the pitching matchup in or series preview.
Rays 9/7/14 Starting Lineup
Zobrist SS
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Joyce RF
Forsythe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Molina C
Hellickson RHP
Noteworthiness
Ben Zobrist had his first career four walk (one intentional) game.
MLB ERA leaders since August 1: Alex Cobb 1.25, Clayton Kershaw 1.69 Drew Smyly 1.70.
Marc Topkin writes, “The early read is that next season’s Rays will look a lot like this one, officials confident that the group they put together to win this year will bounce back. So aside from a trade or two to relieve the outfield glut (Matt Joyce, maybe Desmond Jennings) and some of the usual shuffling in the bullpen, there won’t be many changes. It will be interesting to see if C Jose Molina, who is signed for $2.75 million, is brought back.” Cough, We totally didn’t say the same thing the other day.
I think I had a great season in Detroit and I think here, I definitely took it to another level, and maybe that’s where I can be, season-end, throughout the season. I don’t know. I mean next year’s a new year, next game’s a new game. But if you can do it once, why can’t you do it again? So that’s definitely the mind-set. I pitched really good for seven starts here, so why I can’t I do it for 30 starts next year?
Yunel Escobar slides into home during an eighth inning rally against the Baltimore Orioles, Friday. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
At this point in the season, when it — as a whole — has been largely conceived as a waste, the best a fan can do is look for the little things to celebrate; a good pitching performance, setting a franchise record, watching a team shutout one of the best teams in baseball. As a fan, I’ve resolved myself to do just that, while also look at the Rays in the future context with the simple question in mind: What are the Rays doing in the present tense, that may carry over into Spring Training and the 2015 season? If the last two games are indicative of anything, the pitching staff looks like it will be solid once more, while the offense is going to need some offseason work on situational hitting.
Alex Cobb was good in his 7 IP/6 H/0 ER/1 BB/6 K 105 pitch (70 for strikes) outing, though he wasn’t dominant. Much like his previous outing against the Boston Red Sox, Cobb got away with more than a handful of mistakes that were covered up by some exception plays in the field.
To his credit, however, he was able to work through a RISP jam in the sixth inning after Adam Jones moved to second (after reaching on a single to center) on a wild pitch, while also being able to coax weak contact from the Orioles slug happy hitters by working the inside corner. Though he wasn’t perfect, Cobb was effective, keeping Tampa Bay in the game throughout the duration of his seven inning start.
Alex Cobb at-bat outcome chart (courtesy of Brooks Baseball).
The two pitchers Joe lovingly refers to as Jake n’ the Box followed Alex, and were lights out. Brad Boxberger recorded his 93rd and 94th strikeout of the year, setting the single season franchise record for strikeouts by a Rays reliever — unseating JP Howell.
McGee came on in relief in the ninth, and mowed down the meat of the Orioles order on three consecutive strikeouts (two swinging).
Offensively, the Rays met Wei-Yin Chen with scoring opportunities in the second, third and sixth innings, likewise threatening to score in the seventh against Ryan Webb. However, it took them until the eighth inning to scratch out their three runs — a problem that’s plagued Tampa Bay all season. The most insufferable of those opportunities came in the second, when the Rays worked Chen over for 30 pitches — subsequently loading the bases with two outs for Sean Rodriguez.
As he who only has one type of swing made his way to the plate, a moment of déjà vu hit me like a ton of bricks: Rodriguez struck out swinging to end a bases loaded threat night prior. We in section 143 placed our bets on how SeanRod would ruin this prime, two-out scoring opportunity. My bet was on a swinging strikeout. I digress. Rodriguez worked himself into a full count on six pitches, yet I held firm with my prediction. And while the improbable almost seemed reasonable, SeanRod sent an inning ending liner to right-field on the seventh pitch. Womp womp.
Overall, the Rays have posted a .246 BA/.341 OPS/.358 SLG/.699 OPS/.112 ISO slash line with runners in scoring position (this season). And while their batting average and OPS wRISP is decent, that SLG and OPS is abysmal.
The Rays finally tacked three runs onto the board in the eighth, in another bases loaded situation. It looked a little something like this:
(Screenshot courtesy of Fan Graphs)
Yes, you saw right. They could have scored more runs, were’t it for an inning ending double play.
The New What Next
Drew Smyly will make one of his last starts of the season this afternoon against Kevin Gausman and the Orioles. Smyly has been a bright spot in the rotation, and it would be outstanding to see him put together another solid two-runs or fewer outing once more. It should be noted, he held the Orioles to two runs on three hits in his last start. For Gausman, talk about an uneven outing. Despite giving up only two earned runs, Gausman last only four innings against the Rays in a 3-1 loss on August 27th. He’s now thrown for five innings or fewer in seven of his 15 starts, while opposing teams (Rays included) have walked away with wins in six of those games. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.
Rays 9/6/14 Starting Lineup
Zobrist 2B
DeJesus DH
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Joyce LF
Escobar SS
Kiermaier RF
Casali C
Smyly LHP
Noteworthiness
Alex Cobb has gone 11 straight starts with two runs or less. Only five pitchers in AL history have gone longer, including King Felix (17) this year and Babe Ruth (12).
Today’s MLB On Fox broadcast will feature the Orioles announcer Gary Thorne, >Brian Anderson, and the incomparable Ken Rosenthal.
