Hot-Stove: All the News Fit to Print On A Slow News Day

Matt Joyce still finds his name on the trade bubble. (Photo courtesy of J. Meric/Getty Images)
Matt Joyce still finds his name on the trade bubble. (Photo courtesy of J. Meric/Getty Images)

11:45 update: The Pirates announced that they have acquired infielder Sean Rodriguez from the Rays in exchange for a player to be named later and cash considerations. Rodriguez, who was designated for assignment last week to open a roster spot for Ernesto Frieri, was a likely nontender on Tuesday.

In the past 10 days, Matt Silverman and his staff have made some interesting moves — trading three pitchers who have played key roles (Jeremy Hellickson, Joel Peralta and Cesar Ramos) and dumping six others off the 40-man roster, including Jose Molina and Sean Rodriguez.

Many assumed those moves were made to free-up payroll space, and clearly there were some cost savings: Tampa Bay trimmed about $10 million in committed/projected payroll in Hellickson ($4M), Peralta ($2.5M), Rodriguez ($2M) and Ramos ($1.3M), yet filling those four spots will cost a minimum of $2.3 million. And releasing Molina meant eating his $2.75 million salary, plus paying his replacement in excess of the $500,000 minimum. In the end the net savings wasn’t significant, around $4 million. However, “The prime driving force,” writes Marc Topkin, “was creating flexibility on the roster to add a half-dozen younger players the Rays didn’t want to risk losing.” Moreover, the desire to protect younger prospects required Friedman and company to make some difficult decisions with the roster, helping to accelerate the pace of transactions.

Adding to Matt Silverman’s already full plate, an imminent decision to trade either Joyce or David DeJesus — two left handed hitters both making around $5 million — and the upcoming (and final) round of managerial interviews with Kevin Cash, Don Wakamatsu, and Raul Ibanez.

While they’re prepared to listen to more trade offers (Yunel Escobar, Jennings, or James Loney) there isn’t an indication they’ll do so in earnest.

“We listen on everyone, but in many cases it’s for the comedic value more than anything else,” says team president Matt Silverman.

The next big roster deadline for the Tampa Bay Rays is Tuesday, when they have to decide whether to trade or release Sean Rodriguez and tender the contracts of their six remaining arbitration eligibles: pitchers Alex Cobb, Jake McGee, and Drew Smyly; infielder Logan Forsythe; and outfielders Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce.

A few relevant quotes and links are below.

Noteworthiness

  • One byproduct of the DFA of Sean Rodriguez is likelihood of a first baseman’s mitt being placed in Logan Forsythe’s Spring Training locker. Another is increased opportunity for Tim Beckham.
  • The Rays feel Ernesto Freieri’s propensity to give up home runs is correctable.
  • Tampa Bay has outrighted RHP Michael Kohn to the AAA Durham Bulls, and is waiting to hear whether he will accept assignment or become free agent. Kohn was acquired from the Angels in the Cesar Ramos trade, then designated for assignment (along with Cole Figueroa and Jośe Molina) at the 40-man roster deadline.
  • The Rays’ trio of managerial finalists – Kevin Cash, Raul Ibanez, and Don Wakamatsu – is about as intriguing and outside-the-box as you can get, writes David Laurila of Fangraphs.  The Rays are in a transition period and Laurila writes that it’ll be fascinating to see how they proceed from here.
  • Head over to the Tampa Bay Times and place your vote for who you think will be the Rays next manager. Note: former bench coach Dave Martinez is still listed, because that totally makes sense.

Hot-Stove: Rays DFA Sean Rodriguez, Sign Ernesto Frieri

Ernesto Frieri following his debut with the Pirates on June 28, 2014. (Photo courtesy of Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press)
Ernesto Frieri following his debut with the Pirates on June 28, 2014. (Photo courtesy of Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press)

Sean Rodriguez has been designated for assignment in order to make room for the right handed reliever Ernesto Frieri, who was acquired Tuesday afternoon. The designation of Rodriguez isn’t surprising to us at X-Rays Spex HQ — the longtime bench stalwart has been targeted as a potential trade candidate since the end of the 2014 season.

Ernesto Frieri is the reason for the designation, on a major league contract with an $800K base salary, which allows him to earn a total of $3.15 million through performance incentives.

Two questions that I’ve attempted to answer below:

  1. What do we know about Frieri?
  2. Can Jim Hickey work his magic with him?

To sum Frieri up in a few words, he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters — but also offers a lot of free passes.

Frieri ended 2013 with 37 saves, yet managed only 11 for the Angels last season before he was traded to the Pirates. In that excellent 2013 season, Frieri struck out 33.6% of batters faced. Unfortunately that rate plummeted to 26%, while his 19.3% HR/FB jacked his ERA to an obscene 7.34.

According to FanGraphs’ leaderboards page, the league average HR/FB rate has hovered somewhere around 9.5% — 9.7% since 2011. Below is a table of Frieri’s career HR/FB rates, extending back to 2009.

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Frieri’s career HR/FB rates, extending back to 2009.

While his overall HR/FB rating finds Frieri as an average-to-below average pitcher (as it relates to HR/FB), his 2014 numbers are capital U UGLY to say the least. What should be noted however, extreme home run rate variations in either direction are likely unsustainable. Since there was a major leap from 2013 to 2014, the Rays probably think that the 2014 mark is a correctable problem.

Something that bodes in Frieri’s favor, his 31.4% career K%. He, unfortunately, also possesses a career 10.9% BB%. While he strikes out a lot of batters, he also walks his fair share. Those walks aren’t a desirable attribute from someone who may find himself in high leverage situations.

Ian Malinowski was quick to remind us of something, in his latest piece for DRaysBay,

Pitchers who strike out an extreme percentage of batters are also better at creating weak contact, so they often enjoy a better BABIP and a better HR/FB. This makes intuitive sense because the same skills that allow a pitcher to fool hitters into striking out allow him to fool them into not making solid contact.

Frieri is somewhat of an anomaly, in that he falls into the extreme fly-ball category of pitchers. Over his career, he’s posted a 54.9% fly-ball rate. Last season, his average was 47.5% — still well above the league average of 36%.

Malinowski did something interesting in the above mentioned piece; he limited the FanGraphs leaderboards to pitchers with only 30 innings pitched last season. In doing so, there were only three pitchers who had a higher FB% mark: Sean Dolittle, Chris Young, and the former Ray Juan Carlos Oviedo. He then did away with the small sample size and looked at players who have thrown at least 250 innings since 2009, we get the same result. There are only two players on the list ahead of Frieri — Chris Young and Tyler Clippard.

Pitchers, like Frieri, who produce an extreme number of fly balls tend to induce more weak contact overall. They also tend to allow fewer total hits — though, those they do allow go for extra base hits more often than not. One last thing to ponder, pitchers with a high fly-ball rate will have a lower Home Run/Fly Ball rate than other pitchers.

With all of this in mind, Frieri’s K% fell significantly from 2013 to 2014, while his HR% increased significantly in the same span of time. If the propensity to give up the long-ball can be corrected — especially since his BB% fell significantly from 2013 to 2014 (13.3% to 7.6%) — the acquisition of Frieri could pan out. Furthermore, when you consider that he’ll be throwing in a pitchers park that suppresses home runs, in front of an outfield that includes both Desmond Jennings and Kevin Kiermaier, Frieri could be destined for a rebound.

Noteworthiness

  • Your quote if the day, courtesy of Sean Rodriguez,

I was definitely surprised. I thought with the Rays I was wanted and going to stay for a while. It’s just the nature of the business, I guess.

  • Per Marc Topkin, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer said on Chicago radio they will talk with new manager Joe Maddon about possibly hiring former Rays bench coach Dave Martinez. The Cubs could move quickly on hiring Dave Martinez if they want to, permission from Tampa Bay shouldn’t be an issue.
  • Ian Malinowski writes, “I think we’re all glad there’s someone actually joining the team worth writing about,” in another piece about Ernesto Frieri.
  • Per Marc Topkin, the Rays have outrighted RHP Michael Kohn to AAA Durham Bulls, and are waiting to hear whether he will accept assignment or become free agent. Kohn was acquired from the Angels in the Cesar Ramos trade, then designated for assignment (along with Cole Figueroa and Jośe Molina) at the 40-man roster deadline. Both Molina and Figueroa were granted release waivers earlier this week.

Hot-Stove: Meet Alan Dykstra, Bryce Stowel, Jose Dominguez, and Greg Harris

Allen Dykstra with the (Photo courtesy of Alexander Mendoza)
Allan Dykstra with the Navegantes del Magallanes (Photo courtesy of Alexander Mendoza)

The Rays acquired four players in the last week, all of which are (presumably) bound for the minor leagues — 1B Allan Dykstra, RHP Bryce Stowel, RHP Jose Dominguez, and starter from Class-A named Greg Harris. If you recall, both Dominguez and Harris came over in the trade of Joel Peralta with the Dodgers, while Dykstra (no relation to Lenny) and Stowel were acquired off the free-agent market, and signed to minor league contracts.

In our newly minted Hot-Stove series Meet the Newest Acquisitions, I’ll introduce you to the newest Rays.

Allen Dykstra

Dykstra was penned as the heir apparent to the first baseman spot with the Mets if Lucas Duda couldn’t earn his keep. Yet Dykstra ended 2014 on the free-agent market after a promotion to Triple-A at the start of the season.

Thanks to a lackluster fielding percentage (.981) and a progressively increasing number of errors, Dykstra can be considered more of a designated hitter at this point in his career. The former Met impressively slashed .283 BA/.428 OBP/.507 SLG/.935 OPS last season, while his .418 wOBA (.398 in 2013) was good for a 165 wRC+.

The most impressive thing about Dykstra is his approach. He rarely swings at pitches outside of the zone (9.1%) and Dykstra is willing to take his walks — a 20% BB-rate since 2012 speaks to that. Per Baseball-Reference, it’s not uncommon for Dykstra to have as many hits and walks in any given season — he had the same number of hits as walks in 2013. If Dykstra makes it to the bigs this season, he can offer Tampa Bay bench depth and could fill the Rays as of now empty DH hole.

Bryce Stowel

The Rays re-signed the right handed Bryce Stowell after he posted a career best 1.99 ERA and 2.54 FIP in 49-2/3 relief innings with the Montgomery Biscuits last season.

Jose Dominguez

As I wrote on November 21st, new RHP Jose Dominguez was the Dodgers number 11 prospect going into 2014 per Baseball America, citing his 100-plus mph fastball. Dominguez, made the Dodgers’ opening day roster but spent much of the season at Triple-A Albuquerque, going 1-2 with 10 saves and a 3.24 ERA over a 33-⅓ IP span. He missed some time with an injured shoulder, though he returned to pitch in the minor-league playoffs. He will compete for a spot in the Rays bullpen but has options and could open at Triple-A Durham.

As was written about in 2013,

Dominguez features a plus-plus fastball that sits 96-98 MPH and regularly touches 100. He backs that up with a fringy power curveball. He has a 9.5 K/9, so missing bats is no problem for Dominguez. He’ll have to hone his breaking ball going forward if he wants to be a late-inning reliever.

Dominguez has struggled with his command at times; a 4.26 BB/9 and 25% HR/FB in 2014 speak to that. Injuries have brought each of his last two seasons to an early end and he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy to reach his potential in Rays bullpen. There is also a concern of his potential reluctance to learn a secondary pitch. Being able to throw 100 is wonderful, but if you have control issues and something else to keep hitters honest, they will make you pay.

Greg Harris

The Dodgers selected Harris in the 17th round of the 2013 First-Year Player Draft. He spent his first full professional season with Class-A Great Lakes, where he went 7-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 22 games. He struck out 92 batters and walked 28 in 87 innings. Harris pitches well off his fastball which he typically throws it around 90 mph (topping out at 95 mph), though scouts think he can add velocity as he fills out his lanky frame. He has improved his secondary pitches and both his curveball and changeup show promise. Harris reportedly has an advanced feel for pitching, which has helped ease his transition to the professional ranks. Many think he’ll ultimately end up in the bullpen, although he’s ticketed for a rotation spot in the minors for the time being.

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays both Jose Molina and Cole Figueroa on release waivers. Either player could be claimed by another team for as little as $1.oo, and that team would then assume the player’s salary for 2015 and need to add him to the 40-man roster. Otherwise, both Molina and Figueroa can accept an assignment to Triple-A and keep his salary, or opt for free agency and forsake his contract with the franchise.
  • I can’t say this was unexpected. Bill Chastain, the Rays beat writer MLB.com, tweeted that now former bench coach Davey Martinez has decided to leave the Rays after being overlooked in the Rays search for a new manager.

  • In a statement following the announcement of his departure, former bench coach Dave Martinez released a statement,“I informed the Rays this week that I have chosen to move forward and consider other opportunities that may present themselves outside the organization. It was a hard decision that I think is best for myself and the Rays. I want to thank our fans for their overwhelming support. It has meant the world to my family and me. For the past nine years, the players and staff have been an extension of my family and the memories that we have all shared and the relationships that have been built will stay with me forever. I can’t thank them enough for all they have meant to me.”
  • The Rays will pay Martinez, though that can change if he gets hired elsewhere. Teams need permission to talk to Martinez, compensation is not usual in these cases.

Jim Bowden On the Rays Managerial Search, Etc

Jim Bowden (Photo courtesy of AP Photo)
Jim Bowden (Photo courtesy of AP Photo)

On the heels of the announcement of the final three managerial candidates Friday, ESPN’s Jim Bowden had some pretty strong words on the Rays search to fill the gap left in Joe Maddon’s wake. Sadly, unless you have an ESPN Insider account, you probably couldn’t read what Bowden had to say. While I’m one of the many who doesn’t have an account with ESPN (Do I REALLY want to put more money in Kruk’s pocket?), a kind follower of the X-Rays Spex Facebook page reprinted his comments in their entirety.

Without further adieu,

The Rays’ managerial search took another bizarre twist Friday when it was announced that their three finalists were Don Wakamatsu, Raul Ibanez and Kevin Cash. Their initial list of eight individuals to interview was puzzling to begin with, considering just two of those candidates were former big league managers: Wakamatsu and Manny Acta.

Wakamatsu’s first managerial stint lasted only 274 games with the Seattle Mariners, and he was 28 games under .500 when he was fired in 2010. Acta has six years of MLB managerial experience, but his career win percentage is just .418, and he hasn’t had a winning season.

But the surprising part wasn’t that those two got interviews; they’re both solid baseball men and deserve another chance. Instead, it was more about which experienced managers did not get an interview. That list that includes Ron Washington, Kirk Gibson, Dusty Baker and Ron Gardenhire. All four of them have led a team to the postseason since 2010. Washington has two AL pennants and four 90-win seasons under his belt; Gibson was the NL Manager of the Year just three seasons ago; Baker has eight 90-win seasons, three NL Manager of the Year awards (and three second-place finishes); and Gardenhire, known for having teams with good fundamentals, has five 90-win seasons and has finished in the top three in Manager of the Year voting seven times (one win). Not even good enough for an interview?

Another surprising aspect about their candidates list was that several of the industry’s up-and-coming possibilities were not included, such as Tim Bogar, Torey Lovullo and Doug Mientkiewicz. Barry Larkin and Doug Glanville did receive last-minute interviews — not sure why they weren’t on the original list — but neither seemed to get fair consideration. In particular, Larkin would have been a perfect fit for the Rays given his leadership qualities, number of years in the game and his impressive managing work in the World Baseball Classic with the Brazilian national team. But apparently, he was out-interviewed by the above finalists.

It’s also a little strange to see Ibanez (who still hasn’t officially retired yet), but no interview for Paul Konerko.

To top it all off was the disrespect toward long-time Rays bench coach Dave Martinez. Several Rays players, including Evan Longoria and Alex Cobb, publicly and privately urged new Rays GM Matt Silverman to hire Martinez, citing that continuity would help them through the losses of manager Joe Maddon and GM Andrew Friedman going forward.

Silverman was smart to ask some of his star players for their input, but didn’t seem to pay much attention to it. The Rays decided to include Martinez in the managerial hiring process, but didn’t even name him a finalist. Silverman wouldn’t have had all those candidates if he thought Martinez would be the next manager, so why make him go through a process you knew he wouldn’t survive and then embarrass him more by not even making him a finalist?

According to some, the interview process itself was much more corporate-slanted than baseball philosophy oriented, and the candidate list seems to have no theme or consistency to it. There’s no clear direction of what they’re looking for in a manager, as Wakamatsu, Ibanez and Cash are as different from a personality perspective as they are from a baseball philosophy perspective. The final list is about as eclectic as it gets.

In an attempt to put a positive spin on this, I’ll note that a poor process doesn’t always mean the wrong guy for the job. For Silverman’s sake, he better hope he hires the right guy, because this will be the most important decision he will make in his rookie year as a GM.

Incidentally, Ian Malinowski wondered whether the Rays are asking the right questions in their search for a new manager as well. In the end, for a team who espoused the virtues of the process, it’s a bit tenuous to think the Rays are going about the business of hiring a new manager the right way.

Noteworthiness

After a busy week of wheeling and dealing, here is how the Rays 40-man roster looks now:

Pitchers (20)
Matt Andriese
Chris Archer
Grant Balfour
Jeff Beliveau
Brad Boxberger
Alex Cobb
Alex Colome
Jose Dominguez
Grayson Garvin
Steve Geltz
Brandon Gomes
Nathan Karns
Jake McGee
Mike Montgomery
Matt Moore
Jake Odorizzi
C.J. Riefenhauser
Enny Romero
Drew Smyly
Kirby Yates

Catchers (3)
Curt Casali
Ryan Hanigan
Justin O’Conner

Infielders (10)
Tim Beckham
Ryan Brett
Yunel Escobar
Logan Forsythe
Nick Franklin
Hak-Ju Lee
James Loney
Evan Longoria
Sean Rodriguez
Ben Zobrist

Outfielders (7)
David DeJesus
Brandon Guyer
Desmond Jennings
Matt Joyce
Kevin Kiermaier
Mikie Mahtook
Wil Myers

In a recent piece for the Tampa Bay Times, Marc Topkin noted,

With Jose Molina gone, the Rays are working to add a backup to Ryan Hanigan — either via trade or signing — who has more experience than Curt Casali and, preferably, options so they can compete. … In addition to the expected trade of Matt Joyce and/or David DeJesus, the Rays may be looking to deal from depth in reserve infielders (Logan Forsythe or Sean Rodriguez) and bullpen (Brandon Gomes, et al).

Matt Joyce’s availability with an asterisk, of course.

The Rays will have to seek out a team who is looking for a left handed power(isn) hitter. Joyce is coming off a .254 BA/.349 OBP/.383 SLG season, and while his BA was above his career norm for a good part of the season, his power numbers and slash line wRISP were down. Then there’s the whole “Joyce isn’t good against LHP” scenario — Tampa Bay has hidden Joyce from lefties with just 35 of his 493 plate appearances coming against fellow southpaws. FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron has noted that clubs are showing a preference for right-handed power hitters, potentially decreasing any interest in Joyce, who is projected to earn $4.9MM in his final spin through arbitration.

Quell those fears, my friends. In a response to a question about the future of Jim Hickey on Twitter, Marc Topkin was fairly reassuring, going as far as to note that Hickey is signed for 2015, and the Rays value his work.

In an ideal world, Tampa Bay will offer a contract extension to Hickey at some point during this off-season, if not next.

Hot-Stove: Rays Announce Managerial Finalists

Kevin Cash (right) is one of the Rays three managerial finalists.
Kevin Cash (right) is one of the Rays three managerial finalists.

Earlier today, we noted that the Rays would narrow the field to three candidates. The Rays did just that, whittling their list of managerial candidates down from ten to three this afternoon, settling on Royals bench coach Don Wakamatsu, Indians bullpen coach Kevin Cash and Raul Ibanez to serve as their next skipper.

To better know Don Wakamatsu. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
To better know Don Wakamatsu. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Wakamatsu managed the Mariners from 2009-10, prior to holding down the bench coach position with the Kansas City Royals. “He’s oft-cited as a candidate to receive another crack at managing a team and has drawn interest from multiple clubs in managerial searches since his dismissal from Seattle,” writes Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors.

To better know Kevin Cash. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
To better know Kevin Cash. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Former catcher for the Rays, Cash also spent time with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros in his eight-year career as a catcher. He was considered to be a strong candidate in the recent managerial searches for the Rangers and Astros.

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To better know Raul Ibanez. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

Ibanez was a surprise entrant on the Rays’ initial list of 10, considering the fact that he was active on the Royals roster through season’s end. The 19-year veteran is a career .272 BA/.335 OBP/.465 SLG hitter with 305 homers and is known for his positive influence in the clubhouse.

Shockingly absent from the list of finalists is bench coach Dave Martinez, the Rays top internal candidate. In a press release confirming the finalists, President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman made the following statement:

The decision on Dave Martinez was especially difficult. He’s played a key role in our organization’s evolution, and he’s done all he can to put himself in position to be a manager. In the end, we determined that our clubhouse would best benefit from a new voice that will add to our already strong and cohesive culture.

The in person interviews are set to take place the week of December 1, and because of it there will be no manager in place by Thanksgiving. However, the organization will have time to make a decision prior to the Winter Meetings, which run from December 7-11 in San Diego.

Among the 10 initial candidates, Craig Counsel was the only member to withdraw his name from consideration choosing instead to stick with his current team, the Milwaukee Brewers.

The speculation can now begin on who might be the best fit for the future of the organization, however, suffice it to say, the insight into the qualifications of each candidate is minimal at best.

Noteworthiness:

  • Quote of the day, courtesy of Marc Topkin: “Martinez, 50, had the support of several key Rays players, who cited the benefit of continuity. He is signed for the 2015 season, but it would be hard to imagine him returning; more likely the Rays would offer him another position in the organization and/or allow him to take a job elsewhere, perhaps joining Maddon with the Cubs. Martinez, who was described by a friend as “very, very disappointed,” did not return messages Friday night.”
  • The Rays have signed 1B Allan Dykstra and RHP Bryce Stowell to minor-league contracts, per MLB.com transactions. Dykstra most recently played for the Navegantes Del Magallanes in Venezuela last year, and is said to be very impressive, boasting solid defense.