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The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — a series preview, part two

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More home plate celebrations would be a welcome reprieve from five consecutive losses. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic)

The Tampa Bay Rays will continue their road swing on Thursday, as they are set to open a three-game series with the Red Sox at Fenway. The Rays are coming off a brief two-game set against the Yankees, having suffered their fifth straight defeat with a 7-2 loss on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Red Sox swept a two-game Interleague series with Marlins, taking a 4-2 road win in 13 innings Tuesday night.

Stats Credit: ESPN

Tampa Bay dropped its fifth straight game since rallying for a win on Opening Day. They will now face a Boston team that has won five in a row (all on the road), including three out of four against the Rays last week.

Stats Credit: FanGraphs

In all fairness, though the Rays offense has not been very good, as exemplified by a -9.5 wRAA — which puts their offense somewhere between below average and poor — the Red Sox, honestly, haven’t been much better. Their -2.8 wRAA also finds their offense in the below average range. Tampa Bay held Boston to 10 runs over the first four games of the season (2.5 runs on average per game). Any success will hinge upon Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. If it can perform as it had during the Opening Series, the Rays could have a fighting chance. If not, well…

Pitching Matchups

Rays manager Kevin Cash will lean on Yonny Chirinos (0-0, 0.00 ERA), Jacob Faria (0-0, 4.50 ERA), and the bullpen over the next three games and four days. Alex Cora will respond with David Price (1-0, 0.00 ERA), Rick Porcello (1-0, 1.69 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before Sunday’s finale.

Stas Credit: FanGraphs

Yonny Chirinos will get the ball in his second appearance of the season — the first start of his big league career. He enters Fenway with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.500 WHIP after he tossed four scoreless innings against the Red Sox on Sunday. He issued one walk and struck out three. He also hit two batters. Nevertheless, Chirinos is 36-17 with a 2.75 ERA over 70 minor league starts (474-1/3 innings). He walked 74 and fanned 363 in 98 career appearances (4.91 K/BB).

David Price will make his second consecutive start against his former team. On Friday, the southpaw threw seven scoreless innings and allowed four hits with no walks. He fanned five. All in all, Price will face the Rays for the 11th time in his career, and is 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA over 60 innings of work. He has walked 11 and struck out 64. Key matchups: CJ Cron (3-12, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (3-11, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (2-6)

Jacob Faria faces the Red Sox again after he allowed one run in four innings against them on Sunday. He got the early hook on Sunday after throwing just 83 pitches (53 for strikes). He posted a solid 3.43 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 86.7 innings last season, but his 4.16 FIP and .265 BABIP suggests he might have slightly overachieved. Faria will be making his first career start at Fenway Park.

Rick Porcello completed 5-1/3 solid innings and notched a win on Saturday against the Rays after he allowed one earned run on six hits and one walk while striking out four. While the right-hander had a successful 2018 debut, it remains to be seen whether his success will continue; after all he generated just two swinging strikes and allowed eight flyballs. That outing was good, just don’t assume Porcello is back to his 2016 form. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, 2B, BB), Matt Duffy (5-13), Brad Miller (11-40, 4 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 BB), Rob Refsnyder (1-3), Denard Span (14-38, 4 RBI, 2 BB)

The Rays are using Sunday as one of their bullpen days, and they will name a starter after Saturday’s game.

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LBWMF: Rays fall to Yankees in ugly fashion, 11-4

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Look at that sold out Opening Day crowd in the Bronx! Just kidding, about 1/3 of the maximum capacity of 47,422 showed up to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays rallied from a three-run deficit on Tuesday against the Yankees, yet ultimately dropped an 11-4 decision at Yankee Stadium New York. The Yankees scored seven runs in their final two at-bats thanks in part to Didi Gregorius, who homered twice and drove in eight runs.

Below are some highlights and/or low-lights (if you prefer):

— Check it out, we got the party started on Empty Seats Galore’s Twitter feed with a slightly sarcastic tweet about the Yankees’ attendance at their home opener. Surely it was just a good natured ribbing, and nothing else.

In all fairness, those who live in glass houses probably shouldn’t throw stones. Then again, when your constantly having to clean up all the broken glass in your home, it can be cathartic to hurl a missile or two when given the opportunity.

— After driving in three with his sixth inning two-RBI double, Denard Span now owns five of the Rays nine total runs batted in.

Everybody, do the Denard Span shimmy.

If only Kevin Cash could get Span to hit in all nine spots.

— In the bottom of the sixth inning, Carlos Gomez kept the game tied at four, leaping above the wall in right field to take away a go-ahead solo homer by Tyler Wade.

— Good on Austin Pruitt for this quickly getting himself into mid-season form!

Pruitt, who threw a perfect sixth inning in relief of Archer, allowed a double Tyler Austin to start the seventh, before Brett Gardner laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt. Matt Duffy fielded the ball, yet threw it past Brad Miller, scoring Austin from second. Aaron Judge followed with a bloop hit to center, putting runners at the corners, yet Pruitt came back to fan Giancarlo Stanton. Yet Didi Gregorius, for the second time in the game, followed with a three-run homer to right on an 0-2 pitch to put New York up by four.

— The Rays struck out Stanton five times, which led to some booing from the crowd…all 15,000 in attendance.

— Just remember that the Gin Blossoms, in all of their sagely wisdom, came up with the Rays slogan over 20-years ago.

I guess that makes them the Nostradamus of Replacements/Posies influenced rock music.

The New What Next

The series finale between the pair of AL East rivals is on Wednesday afternoon, when Blake Snell pitches opposite Luis Severino.

Snell was great in his first start of the season, allowing just three hits over 5-2/3 shutout innings, on 84 pitches (49 strikes; 59% strike ratio). After the game, Snell said he was “happy with (my) consistency in the zone … happy with my tempo … happy with my defense, I mean they really played great,” while also complimenting Ramos’ work behind the plate.

He, however, recognized that he needed to attack the zone more, especially later in the game — against a good contact team like the Red Sox — and that he tried to rack up the strikeouts and be a little too dirty. That, a handful of deep counts, and a pair of walks speak to his marginally high number of pitches thrown (14.8 pitches per inning).

Severino was sharp in the season opener, hurling 5-2/3 scoreless innings of one-hit ball against Toronto. Last season, Severino relied primarily on a 98 mph fourseam fastball and a hard 89 mph worm killer slider. He also mixed in a firm 88 mph changeup with a lot of backspin. He was 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts against the Rays last season, striking out 27 against five walks. Key matchups: Matt Duffy (1-2), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-1), Jesus Sucre (1-4)

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 4/4/18 Starting Lineup

Span LF
Kiermaier CF
Cron DH
Miller 1B
Ramos C
Wendle 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith RF
Robertson 3B
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— According to Christopher O’Donnell (Tampa Bay Times) Tampa Bay Rays2020, the business booster group looking to drum up corporate support for a Rays move to Ybor City, will unveil a list of 100 business leaders they say are on board with their campaign tomorrow.

Being a part of the Baseball Forever push, and helping set up a similar campaign on the Pinellas side of the bay, I have a lot to say about this. I will wait to share my thoughts until either tomorrow or Thursday, when I find the time. Keep checking back.

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Rays 4/3/18 pre-game notes, starting lineup, etc

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yankee-stadium-2018-home-opener-001

Six inches of snow that fell in New York on Monday, resulting in the Rays/Yankees’ game postponement. (Photo Credit: CBS Sports)

After a game postponement in New York due to snow on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to play their first road game against the Yankees on this afternoon (weather permitting).

According the Weather Channel, the six inches of snow that fell was the most on an April day in New York since 1982.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) listed a few other firsts:

* overall since April 9, 2016, at Baltimore (and their postponement free 2017 was their first such season since 2010);

* due to snow – or technically, wintry mix – since May 2, 2013, in Kansas City;

* in New York since Aug 14, 2011;

* affecting their first road game of the season since April 13, 2004, at New York (having opened the season in Tokyo), and third overall, also April 11, 2003, at New York and April 6, 2009, at Boston.

With the snow, Tampa Bay adjusted its rotation, and will start Chris Archer today, rather than Austin Pruitt, and then Blake Snell on Wednesday.

The New What Next

Archer (0-0, 6.00 ERA) will pitch opposite of Jordan Montgomery (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Archer came away with a no-decision on Opening Day after he allowed four runs over six innings. He struck out six. Archer settled down after allowing three early runs and cruised through the next four frames before he was penalized the third time through the order. The right-hander efficiently carved through Boston’s lineup — at one point retiring eight consecutive batters — by forcing contact as opposed to depending solely upon strikeouts. One wonders if he’ll approach the Yankees similarly on Wednesday. In nine career starts in the Bronx, the right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.13 ERA. He went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four 2017 starts vs. the Yankees.

Montgomery will make his season debut for the Yankees on Monday, after making 29 starts last season as a rookie. Montgomery walked 51 over 150 innings of work last season, but also struck out 144. All told, he finished sixth in the race for the AL Rookie of the Year. He did not pitch in the postseason last year for New York. Montgomery relies primarily on a whiffy 81 mph 12/6 curveball, and a 92 mph sinker. He will also mix in an 85 mph changeup with cut action, a 92 mph fourseam fastball with good “rising action,” and an 86 mph slider. He has never faced the Rays.

You can read more about the series in our preview.

Rays 4/3/18 Starting Lineup

Duffy 3B
Kiermaier CF
Gomez RF
Cron 1B
Ramos DH
Hechavarria DH
Sucre C
Robertson 2B
Refsnyder LF
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays will field a very interesting, right-handed heavy lineup today against Montgomery, with Wilson Ramos hitting fifth as the DH, and Jesus Sucre behind the plate.

— The pitching schedule for the rest of the week will look as follows:

Thursday: Bullpen
Friday: Off
Saturday: Faria
Sunday: Bullpen

According to Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) the Rays could go back to Archer on Sunday, or have him pitch the first game in Chicago

Adjusting the rotation means both Archer and Snell, who have traditionally struggled in Boston, would not have to pitch there.

In addition, the Rays would have a day off after the first bullpen day, and could have Archer following the second bullpen outing.

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The New What Next: Rays vs. Yankees — a series preview (the redux)

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The Rays pitching and defense put on a show during the Opening Series. The offense, however, not so much. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays will open of a brief two-game series with the Yankees on Monday, in New York. Tampa Bay closed out its four-game series at home with Boston on Sunday afternoon, having dropped the final three games of the series after a 2-1 defeat. Meanwhile, New York finished its four-game road set against the Blue Jays, having dropped the last two games of the series to end up with a split after falling 7-4 Sunday afternoon.

(Stats credit: ESPN)

The Rays started the year with a 6-4, come from behind victory over the Red Sox, yet dropped the final three games of the series after scoring a total of three runs. This, despite the fact they outhit the Red Sox 17-13 over the final two games of the series. The biggest concern, on the offensive end of things, is where the run production will come from, as the majority of the big numbers in that department last season came from guys who are no longer on the roster.

The Yankees, for the second consecutive day, saw their bullpen unravel and turn a potential victory into a loss. On Sunday, New York had a 4-1 lead after six innings but allowed two runs in the seventh and four in the eighth to lose. Brandon Drury was the only player for New York with two hits, while the team finished with only five. Didi Gregorius and Neil Walker drove in New York’s other runs.

(Stats credit FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Kevin Cash will turn to Chris Archer (0-0, 6.00 ERA) on Tuesday, and Blake Snell (0-0, ) in the series finale on Wednesday. Aaron Boone will counter with Jordan Montgomery (9-1, 3.88 ERA in 2017) and Luis Severino (1-0, 0.00 ERA).

(Stats credit: FanGraphs)

Chris Archer came away with a no-decision on Opening Day after he allowed four runs over six innings. He struck out six. Archer settled down after allowing three early runs and cruised through the next four frames before he was penalized the third time through the order. The right-hander efficiently carved through Boston’s lineup — at one point retiring eight consecutive batters — by forcing contact as opposed to depending solely upon strikeouts. One wonders if he’ll approach the Yankees similarly on Wednesday. In nine career starts in the Bronx, the right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.13 ERA. He went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four 2017 starts vs. the Yankees.

Jordan Montgomery will make his season debut for the Yankees on Monday, after making 29 starts last season as a rookie. Montgomery walked 51 over 150 innings of work last season, but also struck out 144. All told, he finished sixth in the race for the AL Rookie of the Year. He did not pitch in the postseason last year for New York. Montgomery relies primarily on a whiffy 81 mph 12/6 curveball, and a 92 mph sinker. He will also mix in an 85 mph changeup with cut action, a 92 mph fourseam fastball with good “rising action,” and an 86 mph slider. He has never faced the Rays.

Blake Snell was great in his first start of the season, allowing just three hits over 5-2/3 shutout innings, on 84 pitches (49 strikes; 59% strike ratio). After the game, Snell said he was “happy with (my) consistency in the zone … happy with my tempo … happy with my defense, I mean they really played great,” while also complimenting Ramos’ work behind the plate.

He, however, recognized that he needed to attack the zone more, especially later in the game — against a good contact team like the Red Sox — and that he tried to rack up the strikeouts and be a little too dirty. That, a handful of deep counts, and a pair of walks speak to his marginally high number of pitches thrown (14.8 pitches per inning).

Luis Severino was sharp in the season opener, hurling 5-2/3 scoreless innings of one-hit ball against Toronto. Last season, Severino relied primarily on a 98 mph fourseam fastball and a hard 89 mph worm killer slider. He also mixed in a firm 88 mph changeup with a lot of backspin. He was 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts against the Rays last season, striking out 27 against five walks. Key matchups: Matt Duffy (1-2), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-1), Jesus Sucre (1-4)

Noteworthiness

— With Monday’s contest postponed due to snow, the Rays moved up Chris Archer, who was originally slated to start Wednesday, and Blake Snell, who was set to pitch on Thursday.

— The Yankees won the season series against the Rays last season 12-7, and went 8-2 at home (4-5 on the road).

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The New What Next: Rays look to bounce back against Sox in series finale

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Carlos Gomez hit the first homer of the season for the Rays on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays will try to even the score with the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, in the final game of this, the four-game Opening Series. Jacob Faria will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Hector Velazquez.

Tampa Bay is coming off a pair of one-run losses, with the most recent being a 3-2 defeat on Saturday. There were a few positives that came from the contest, leaving one to conclude that, if you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) so eloquently put it, the fact that all three games in the series have been decided by one or two runs should not be surprising, as 20 of the last 31 games between the Rays and Red Sox have been decided by that margin.

Back to the positives…

— Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough combined for 7-1/3 innings in the first of many bullpen days this season. The tandem  allowed three runs (two earned), walked four, and struck out four against a very tough Boston team.

Overall, Kittredge threw the ball well and aside for a couple of mistakes that were taken advantage of, the right-hander was able to induce contact which was fielded cleanly by the defenders behind him.

Yarbrough wasn’t as sharp as he usually is, throwing 73 pitches overall, but just 41 for strikes (56% strike ratio). He, however, was able to limit the damage and ended up throwing four innings while allowing just one run on four hits and three walks. That’s not bad for a 26 year-old who was making his big league debut.

Like Kittredge before him, Yarbrough’s mistakes were taken advantage of, and he was most effective when he was able to move the ball around the zone and pitch to margins. His problem, as BA noted on the telecast, was that he tried to be a little too fine — he didn’t attack Boston’s lineup. When they forced him back over the plate, those pitches got hit (See: at-bat results plot below; courtesy of Brooks Baseball).

— How about the backstop duo of Wilson Ramos and Jesús Sucre, which has paired up to gun down three Red Sox base runners over the span of the series (so far)?! The most recent came last night, thanks to Sucre, in the waning innings of the game. The initial “safe” call was overturned upon review.

(Screen grab credit: FoxSports Sun)

— Another positive, the Rays finally scored a run against a Red Sox starter. Carlos Gomez doubled to center before Matt Duffy singled to left, putting runners at the corners and chasing Rick Porcello. Heath Hembree replaced Porcello, and Joey Wendle drove home Gomez with a sacrifice-fly to left.

— Rays skipper Kevin Cash tried to reinforce the idea, prior to the start of the season, that the Rays will hit lots of home runs in 2018. Yet so far the team has flashed a lot of warning track power over the first three games, but not much else. Managerial proclamations aside, Cash did set an unfair expectation for the team, as the Rays aren’t really built for power, rather they are built for contact.

Nevertheless, the absence of homers changed Saturday night when Gomez went yard for the first time this season, swatting a 74 mph cement mixer and sending it to deep left-field.

Now, if only those long-balls can come with men on the bases.

The New What Next

Faria hit the ground running in his rookie campaign, boasting a stellar 2.00 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his first seven starts. Yet despite improving his strikeout marks in the following five outings, Faria battled an abdominal injury that eventually sidelined him for a month in mid-August. While his velocity isn’t impressive, his fastball can boast some occasional cutting action that confounds hitters. Moreover, the “rising” action on the pitch plays well with his split-change and slider, which create vertical drop differentials of seven and nine inches (respectively). Per Nick Pollack (FanGraphs) Faria’s slider is his jack-of-all-trades offering that excels in any count, let it be stealing a strike early (48.3% zone rate), inducing grounders (52.2%) and pop-ups (21.1%), or earning a whiff with its sharp break (14.2%). Meanwhile, Faria’s changeup shuts the door effectively, using its 23.8% whiff rate to generate a 45.5% K rate across 244 thrown. If he can consistently command his fastball, including that cutting action, he will take the next step with the Rays.

One of his challenges will be slowing down Xander Bogaerts, who has accumulated six extra base hits over the first three games of the season (two in each). Only Bogaerts and Adrian Gonzalez (2015 Los Angeles Dodgers) have started a season that way since 1908.

Hector Velázquez (3-1, 2.92 ERA in 2017) will get the start for Boston in his big league debut; his first appearance against the Rays. The scouting report on Velázquez, per Over the Monster:

Velázquez offers three pitches that he trusts. His fastball isn’t overpowering, coming in at the low-90’s. He also offers a solid changeup and a splitter that’s been attributed with the reason for his 2016 breakout in Mexico. Velazquez isn’t going to overpower anyone, but at his best he throws strikes and limits free passes. That’ll play as a replacement-level pitcher, and given the lack of knowledge on him around the league he could even be better.

You can read more about the series inner preview.

Rays 4/1/18 Starting Lineup

Span DH
Kiermaier CF
Gomez RF
Miller 1B
Duffy 3B
Wendle 2B
Ramos C
Smith LF
Hechavarria SS
Faria RHP

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