X-Rays Spex

After one last off-day, the Tampa Bay Rays look to even the series at three games apiece and force one last ball game, when they face the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, in Arlington. The Dodgers have a three-games-to-two advantage over the Rays in the 2020 World Series.

The Rays are 5-1 in elimination games over the past two postseasons. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has won all three of its games in the 2020 postseason when they had a chance to close out the opposing team.

While Tyler Glasnow proved ineffective in his Sunday night start against the Dodgers — thus solidifying his position as the hard-hit% king of the postseason — the rest of Tampa Bay’s pitching staff kept Los Angeles in check across four scoreless frames on Sunday. Put another way, Diego Castillo, Aaron Loup, Ryan Sherriff, and Ryan Thompson proved that the Dodgers can be pitched to. And instead of trying to throw the nastiest pitches possible, resulting in whiffy K after whiffy K, the above mentioned four-headed beast forced contact and allowed the fielders behind them to gobble up balls put in play. Blake Snell, who will get the start on Tuesday, would be well served to take after the latter named four hurlers as opposed to Glasnow.

While the Rays might be down, they certainly are not out. Bear in mind one simple fact: neither Tampa Bay nor Los Angeles has strung together two consecutive wins in the 2020 World Series. The Rays have already proved they can get to Tony Gonsolin, and if they can win Tuesday night, they can force a game seven and push things back into coinflip territory.

Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) put things in perspective, writing,

It would be a tremendous accomplishment, especially considering the opponent. Los Angeles has led for all but the final play of game four for 27 consecutive innings. They’ve hit multiple homers in eight straight playoff games, scored at least four runs in every game of the World Series, and have gone a combined 55–22 between the regular season and postseason. All while being the top scoring team and run prevention team this year in MLB.

Of any team that could beat that Dodgers club two games in a row, it would be the Rays. Think about what they’ve done this year:

• Had the best record in the American League (40–20), something that only previously happened in 2010.
• Won not one but two winner-take-all playoff games, not including wildcard games, something they had done just once in all previous seasons combined.
• Beat the Yankees in their first-ever playoff series against them.
• Avenged last year’s loss in the ALDS to Houston by beating the Astros to advance to the World Series.
• Won more World Series games than any previous Tampa Bay team.
• Set an MLB record for HR in the postseason.
• Had their third ever walk-off victory in the playoffs, and it came in a historic game four of the World Series.

Plus Randy Arozarena has had arguably the best postseason in the history of the game.

The hope is that two great chapters remain in this story, but it’s important to appreciate that, in the most trying of years, this already has been the most successful season the franchise has had.

The New What Next

Blake Snell got the start last Wednesday and looked great through the first 4-2/3 innings, holding the Dodgers hitless while striking out nine and walking two — including a perfect 10-pitch first inning. At one point he retired 10 straight batters, six via the strikeout. Yet, the left-hander’s demeanor changed after he walked Kiké Hernández on five pitches two outs in the fifth. Then four pitches later, Snell grooved a 77 mph over the inner third of the plate to Chris Taylor, who inside outed the ball and sent it to right-field for a two-run homer. Six pitches later his night was done after he walked Mookie Betts. Snell looked great until he didn’t, throwing 88 pitches (49 strikes, 56% strike rate) while coaxing 14 swinging strikes (27% SwStr%).

Tony Gonsolin allowed one run on a solo homer to Brandon Lowe and also issued a walk while serving as an opener in game two of the World Series. He struck out one. The 26-year-old threw 16 of his 29 pitches for strikes (55% strike rate) and recorded a first-pitch strike on four of the six batters he faced. The right-hander has now allowed eight earned runs in 7-2/3 postseason innings. He hasn’t had much success in that span, posting a 9.39 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP while walking 19.4% of opposing batters.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

Rays 10/27/20 Starting Lineup

1. Díaz DH
2. Lowe 2B
3. Arozarena LF
4. Choi 1B
5. Margot RF
6. Wendle 3B
7. Adames SS
8. Kiermaier CF
9. Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— From Neil’s lips to your ears: “A key for the Rays will be getting an early lead. in the last three games Los Angeles has scored in the first inning each time. Tampa Bay only led in game four when Brandon Lowe homered for a 5–4 advantage that didn’t last the next half inning, and on the game’s final play. Tampa Bay is 32–7 this year when scoring first (regular season and postseason combined).”

— Rays skipper Kevin Cash plans to be aggressive with the bullpen tonight. Neither Pete Fairbanks nor Nick Anderson pitched on Sunday, so they’ve both had two days off.

After dropping game three of the 2020 World Series on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to even the series, once again, tonight. The Dodgers were the highest-scoring team in baseball during the regular season, and they have plated 18 runs, and hit seven homers, in the first three games of the series.

The Rays were depending heavily on Charlie Morton — winner of all five of his previous playoff starts with Tampa Bay — who entered Friday’s contest with a 7-2 postseason record and a 2.88 postseason ERA. However, a quality start was not in the cards for the right-hander, as Morton hurled a 4.1 IP/5 ER/7 Hit/1 BB outing on 91 pitches (58 strikes, 64% strike rate, 24% SwStr%). Four of the five runs Morton surrendered were of the two-out variety. He surrendered a first-inning homer to Justin Turner, a two-RBI single in the third on a full-count pitch, and two runs in the fifth on a safety squeeze bunt and an RBI base hit. Morton departed after a one-out walk in the fifth, thanks to an uncharacteristically shaky outing at a rather inopportune time.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s hitters had a difficult time figuring out Walker Buehler, who allowed just three hits across six innings, while striking out 10 and walking two. The only run the right-hander allowed came during the fifth inning when he gave up a one-out double to Manuel Margot, and a two-out RBI double to Willy Adames. Otherwise, Buehler and the Dodgers’ ‘pen held the big-boppers in the Rays lineup — Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, and Mike Zunino — to 2-17 with 11 punchouts. Buehler has now given just five runs in 25 postseason frames.

To his credit, Arozarena did homer off Kenley Jansen with two outs in the ninth inning — his first homer of the World Series. Arozarena now has eight homers in the postseason, setting a new franchise record, while tying the MLB record for one postseason. RAAAAAAAANDY now has 23 postseason hits — the most for an MLB rookie — allowing him to pass Derek Jeter … but RE2PECT, or whatever. Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio), Arozrena’s 52 total bases are the most in any playoff run.

To their credit, the Rays bullpen was pretty darn good across the 4-2/3 innings after Morton’s departure, allowing just one run on a homer off right-hander John Curtiss. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has fanned at least 10 batters in each game of the series, yet the starters have allowed 13 runs on 12 hits and 11 walks over 13-1/3 innings. In contrast, the bullpen has surrendered four runs in 12-2/3 innings.

The New What Next

Ryan Yarbrough (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will get the start Saturday, pitching opposite of Julio Urias (4-0, 0.56 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough allowed two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings on Tuesday in game three of the ALCS against the Astros. The left-hander picked up the start in a critical game in the series and followed through with a solid outing. He allowed a solo shot in the first inning, although he was effective the rest of the way before he surrendered a leadoff home run in the sixth inning which resulted in his removal. Yarbrough has never faced the Dodgers. Yarbrough has made two other postseason appearances, surrendering two runs in five innings in each outing against New York and Houston. The Dodgers were better against right-hander (.837 OPS) than left-handers (.778 OPS) during the regular season.

Julio Urias finished game seven of the NLCS, and has been fantastic during the playoffs. He has yet to throw more than five innings in an outing, although Urias has allowed just one earned run total in 16 total innings of work. The left-hander has given up just seven hits and three walks while striking out 16. Right-handed hitters were significantly better against Urias than left-handed hitters (.647 OPS vs .491 OPS) in 2020. He relies primarily on a whiffy 94 mph four-seam fastball with little arm-side movement, while also mixing in an 84 mph slider that sweeps across the zone and has some two-plane movement, an 80 mph hard curveball that has sweeping glove-side movement, and a firm 86 mph changeup.

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

Rays 10/24/20 Starting Lineup

null
1. Diaz 1B
2. Arozarena DH
3. Brosseau 3B
4. Margot LF
5. Lowe 2B
6. Adames SS
7. Renfroe RF
8. Zunino C
9. Kiermaier CF