X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Chris Archer, Anthony Banda facing possible DL stints

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Tampa-Bay-Rays-Chris-Archer-aims-for-success-versus-Boston-Red-Sox

Chris Archer, photographed in April, could be headed to the DL.

Tampa Bay Rays ace, Chris Archer, is listed as “questionable” for his next start on Friday due to a groin issue. Meanwhile, southpaw Anthony Banda — one of the young pitchers who could replace Archer should his injury necessitate a disabled list stint — is sidelined with a forearm strain that has the potential to be a serious injury.

On Saturday, Archer disclosed that he has been dealing with groin tightness, which led to an appointment in Philadelphia on Monday, a team off-day, with core muscle specialist Dr. William Meyers.

Archer is erring on the side of caution since he has not had this type of issue before, saying:

Since it’s something that I’ve never dealt with, it’s better to just address it, know what it is. That way we can know how to strengthen it and how to get better ASAP.

It appears that Archer might not make his next start against the Mariners on Friday.

It’s questionable, Archer said. And obviously it hurts because the only thing I take pride in and have an ego about is pitching once every five days. Regardless of the results, I want to be there for my team. I’m going to do everything I can to be out there but not do anything silly to over-exert myself.

Losing Archer would be yet another blow to the Rays, who have scrambled for arms all season long due to injuries and their unique usage of regular bullpen days.

Banda was placed on the seven-day disabled list at Triple-A Durham on Sunday due to a left forearm strain, an injury that will likely keep the southpaw out beyond the minimum amount of time. He is headed back to St. Petersburg, where he will receive an evaluation from the Rays’ team doctors before a formal timetable for his return is established.

Acquired as the primary piece of the three-team trade that sent Steven Souza to the Diamondbacks last offseason, Banda has posted solid numbers in Durham this season and also made three big league appearances for Tampa Bay. He last worked six innings with the Bulls on Thursday.

Forearm injuries are always a cause for concern, as they are seen as a precursor to Tommy John surgery.

Tampa Bay lost a pair of top tier prospects — Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell — to Tommy John surgery prior to the start of the 2018 season.

Likewise, Yonny Chirinos and Jose Mujica each have been sidelined with forearm strains, however, MRI’s revealed no structural damage for either hurler. Mujica projects to miss about a month on the DL, while Chirinos threw 54 pitches over four innings for Durham on Sunday in his third rehab outing.

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LBWMF: Rays drop series opener to the Mariners in extras, 4-3

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Partying on the party deck on a beautiful Friday night in Seattle. (Photo Credit: “Replay” Dave Drobach)

The Tampa Bay Rays battled back from a three-run deficit on Friday and inevitably found themselves in their second extra-innings ball-game in less than a week. They, however, couldn’t overcome the Seattle Mariners, dropping the 13-inning series opener, 4-3 — consequently falling back to the .500 mark. The Mariners are now 17-9 in one-run games, and 6-0 in extra innings.


What a ride! Source: FanGraphs

Seattle struck first, taking a three-run lead before an out was recorded in the fourth inning. After Sergio Romo pitched 1-1/3 scoreless frames as the opener, Austin Pruitt got into, and out of, a jam in the second, although Seattle broke through in the third inning.

With two outs, Jean Segura beat out a slow grounder to short before Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz followed with back-to-back line drive singles, giving the Mariners a one-run lead.

Then in the bottom of the fourth, Ben Gamel sent a sharp line drive the other way, past a diving Mallex Smith, who had late jump on the play but tried to make his best KK impersonation and missed by a few inches, resulting in a triple. Ryon Healy hit a weak single to center to drive in Gamel. Then another in-between liner (this time toward right-center) lead to another Smith dive and miss, as the ball bounded toward the wall.

But Austin Pruitt tightened up his game and retired 11 consecutive batters — fanning three of them — and did not allow a ball out of the infield.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay collected three hits in the first two innings against Mike Leake, including leadoff singles in each frame, but did not score. The Rays’ hitters came to the plate ready to hack away at Leake, the right-hander who pounds the zone. He may not be an imposing hurler, yet Leake has been very good of late, and played off the Rays’ aggressiveness at the plate. He coxed many a whiff, induced lots of weak contact at the worst times, and worked quickly and efficiently.

Tampa Bay didn’t get another hit until the fifth inning, when Carlos Gomez and Johnny Field went back-to-back with solo home runs to left-center — the seventh for Gomez, and sixth for Field. They pulled the Rays to within a run.

Down by a run to start the ninth, Tampa Bay rallied against closer Edwin Diaz to even up the score. Joey Wendle walked then stole second as Wilson Ramos struck out. Wendle was subsequently wild pitched to third before Matt Duffy fell behind 1-2. Yet Duffy lined an RBI single to left, which plated Field and tied the game at three apiece. Duffy wound up at third on a run-and-hit single by Daniel Robertson, however, Diaz recovered to strike both Brad Miller and Gomez out to keep the game tied. Jose Alvarado worked around an infield single in the bottom of the frame to send the contest to extras for the second time in four days.

Juan Nicasio and Dan Altavilla followed Diaz and posted scoreless innings in the tenth and the eleventh, while Roenis Elias did the same in the 12th and the 13th. Tampa Bay was able to get a runner into scoring position when Field singled to left and swiped second with two outs in the 12th, however, Smith struck out to end the threat.

After Alvarado and Chaz Roe paired up to put up a zero in the 10th, and Roe worked the 11th — punctuated by a swinging strikeout of Mike Zunino on a filthy slider (see below) — the Mariners broke through in the 13th against Matt Andriese, who pitched a scoreless 12th.

Mitch Haniger worked the count full against Andriese, then homered to right-center, ending the four-hour plus marathon.

The New What Next

Game two of the series is on Saturday. Chris Archer (3-3, 4.29 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of left-hander Marco Gonzalez (5-3, 3.60 ERA).

Chris Archer got the start for Tampa Bay on Monday, and threw six innings of shutout baseball. He allowed four hits, walked two and struck out seven. Even though his slider was inconsistent all day — at times it showed good tilt and finish, while at other times it stayed up in the zone and looked flat — his fastball was more on point, which made his rolling sliders effective as off speed pitches. Even so, his fastball command was erratic as well, as Archer threw just 18 of 35 heaters for strikes, and just 10 of 22 first pitch strikes over his six innings of work. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six career starts against the Mariners, and 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts at SafeCo Field.

Marco Gonzales allowed one run (un-earned) on four hits and four walks over 6-2/3 innings of work on Monday. Gonzalez has given up just two unearned runs over 19-1/3 innings in his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven, while going six-plus innings in six of those outings. This season the 26 year-old southpaw he has relied primarily on a firm 85 mph changeup with slight armside fade and natural sink, a whiffy 91 mph sinker, and a 79 mph worm killer curveball, while also mixing in n 88 mph cutter good “rise” and strong cutting action, and a 91 mph four-seam fastball. Key Matchup: Wilson Ramos (2-2)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview

Rays 6/2/18 Starting Lineup

Robertson SS
Cron 1B
Duffy 3B
Ramos DH
Field CF
Refsnyder LF
Gomez RF
Arroyo 2B
Sucre C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— Topper said it best:

Manager Kevin Cash has seen too many baserunning mistakes and says the Rays have to do something about it.

“It’s pretty frustrating,” Cash said after Friday’s 4-3, 13-inning loss to the Mariners. “Look, we play close games and those things are magnified. We’ve learned that over many discussions talking about it.

“We’ve got to kind of go back to the drawing board on some of the baserunning.”

The Rays made four outs on the bases Friday, and it was hard to say which was worse.

Cash seemed to absolve Mallex Smith of blame for being caught stealing to end the first. Matt Duffy was caught in an odd double play in the seventh. Daniel Robertson got picked off first after drawing a two-out walk in the 11th. Joey Wendle was doubled off first to end the 13th.

“It hasn’t been good,” Cash said. “I visited it a couple games ago. It hasn’t been good and it shows up when you’re playing tight games, extra inning games. All those little mistakes prevent you from scoring runs.”

— Mallex Smith’s energy is contagious, but he consistently gets beaten in the box (especially of late), on the base paths, and in the field. Had Smith played the above mentioned hits on a hop instead, the damaged likely would have been mitigated. Perhaps it’s time to start him in left-field, where there’s less ground to cover, and Johnny Field in center.

— Holy right-handed batting order, Batman.

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The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners — a series preview

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Carlos Gomez is ready for the next leg of the Rays nine-game road trip, a three-game set against the Mariners. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to kick off a three-game series at SafeCo Field in Seattle on Friday. Tampa Bay is coming off a winning series against Oakland, where the Rays took three of four. The Seattle Mariners have played well since the suspension of Robinson Cano, getting all the way to the 33-20 mark. However, they split their most recent series with the Rangers, allowing 17 runs along the way.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays had won five straight before dropping the series finale against the Athletics on Thursday. While the offense over the last month has been average, the pitching has been fantastic. Over the last eight games, six of which Tampa Bay has won, the Rays allowed just 17 runs total (2.13 runs per game), and more than three runs in any game just once.

I said it before, and I will say it again: in order to be successful in baseball, you must beat those directly ahead of you in the rankings. As it stands, the Mariners are 5-1/2 games ahead of the Rays in the Wildcard standings. True, it may be a fool’s errand to even think about Postseason baseball 55-games into the 2018 season, but the Rays have an opportunity to leap-frog a direct competitor — one that is under-performing Tampa Bay, at least as it relates to BaseRuns. The Rays are performing more like a 31-24 team, with a +33 run differential, while Seattle should be 30-26 on the season, with a +22 run differential. They also have outperformed the Mariners in almost every important offensive category over the last 14-days, boasting a better wRC+ (104 vs 94), wRAA (2.7 vs -3.9), wOBA (.321 vs .305) and ISO (.151 vs .125).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

If they can continue to play good baseball, the Rays have a good chance of winning the series.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on the bullpen (13-12, 3.95), Chris Archer (3-3, 4.29 ERA), and Blake Snell (7-3, 2.56 ERA). Scott Servais will counter with Mike Leake (5-3, 4.93 ERA), Marco Gonzales (5-3, 3.60 ERA), and Felix Hernandez (5-4, 5.83 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Sergio Romo is slated to start the bullpen day in the series opener. The right-hander has allowed runs in three of his past four appearances, totaling six earned runs over 2-2/3 innings. On Tuesday in Oakland, Romo pitched on a third consecutive day and allowed two runs in the ninth, but he came away with the save. RHP Austin Pruitt is slated to cover the bulk of the innings, though not necessarily immediately after Romo.

Mike Leake was credited with the win against Minnesota on Sunday, scattering four hits and one earned run over eight strong innings. He struck out two and walked none. Leake needed just 86 pitches (62 strikes, 72% strike ratio) to make it through his eight innings before Alex Colome closed out the game. His 4.93 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through his 65-2/3 innings this season aren’t eye-popping, and Leake’s high-contact, low-strikeout ways mean that he’s susceptible to getting blown up from time to time — see his starts on 5/15 (five earned runs), 4/28 (four earned runs), 4/23 (eight earned runs) and 4/18 (five earned runs) for reference. This season he has relied primarily on his 90 mph sinker with heavy sinking action, and an 88 mph cutter with some natural sink, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup that dives down and out of the zone and has slight armside fade, an 81 mph slider with excellent depth and short glove-side cut, and a 79 mph knuckle curveball with sweeping glove-side movement. Leake is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts (13 innings) against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-5), Brad Miller (4-6, 2B, 2 3B), Wilson Ramos (5-21, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB)

Chris Archer got the start for Tampa Bay on Monday, and threw six innings of shutout baseball. He allowed four hits, walked two and struck out seven. Even though his slider was inconsistent all day — at times it showed good tilt and finish, while at other times it stayed up in the zone and looked flat — his fastball was more on point, which made his rolling sliders effective as off speed pitches. Even so, his fastball command was erratic as well, as Archer threw just 18 of 35 heaters for strikes, and just 10 of 22 first pitch strikes over his six innings of work. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six career starts against the Mariners, and 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts at SafeCo Field.

Marco Gonzales allowed one run (un-earned) on four hits and four walks over 6-2/3 innings of work on Monday. Gonzalez has given up just two unearned runs over 19-1/3 innings in his last three starts and is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven, while going six-plus innings in six of those outings. This season the 26 year-old southpaw he has relied primarily on a firm 85 mph changeup with slight armside fade and natural sink, a whiffy 91 mph sinker, and a 79 mph worm killer curveball, while also mixing in n 88 mph cutter good “rise” and strong cutting action, and a 91 mph four-seam fastball. Key Matchup: Wilson Ramos (2-2)

Blake Snell allowed just one run (unearned) on two hits and two walks while fanning seven over 5-2/3 innings of a win against the Athletics. Snell finished just an out shy of a quality start, as he had already reached 97 pitches (62 strikes, 64% strike rate) and allowed a runner to third following a hit and wild pitch. The southpaw was otherwise sharp once again Tuesday, collecting his AL-leading seventh win (tied for first) while improving to 9.7 K/9. Snell boasts an impressive 2.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP heading into his next start Sunday against the Mariners. King Felix, meet King Blake.

Felix Hernandez gave up five runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings on Tuesday. Hernandez had allowed just two runs through five frames before running into trouble when he came back out for the sixth. The former Cy Young Award winner was pulled from the game with the bases loaded and none out, yet the bullpen allowed all three runs to score to cross the plate, causing Hernandez’s ERA to bloat to 5.83. He has been very tough on the Rays over his career, going 8-2 with a 1.94 ERA in 16 starts, although he has allowed at least four earned runs in six or fewer innings in four of his last five outings. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (2-3), Carlos Gomez (6-17, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Last Friday Denard Span and Alex Colome were traded to Seattle for a pair of prospects, and expect the now former Rays to play with a chip on their shoulder.

It’s going to be a little odd facing them so soon, Span said Thursday, but definitely looking forward to it.

Chris Archer has similarly conflicted feelings, saying:

It’s going to be fun. We all know it’s going to be a quality at-bat because that’s what (Span) provides more than anything. … So it’ll be fun to face him, kind of like when you’re young and you’re playing against your friends in Little League, just because it’s so fresh.

Not really looking forward to facing Colome because we know how good he is. Definitely happy for the opportunity both of them have over there. That team is playing really well, and they have nice, defined roles.

— Per Marc Topkin…

RF Carlos Gomez sat out Thursday as a precaution after feeling tightness in his groin area while running out a triple Wednesday, having been on the DL earlier due to a strain in the same area. Gomez said he should be good to return Friday.

— The Rays took six-of-eight California games vs. the Angels and Athletics, two teams ahead of them in the Wildcard race.

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LBWMF: Nathan Eovaldi blanks Oakland in return to the mound

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Nathan Eovaldi pitched like a man on fire Wednesday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Nathan Eovaldi’s first start in a regular-season game since 2016 on Wednesday could not have gone any better. The right-hander threw six hitless innings in Oakland, as the Tampa Bay Rays (28-26) won their fifth game in a row, 6-0 over the Athletics in a combined one-hitter. He became the 12th pitcher in MLB history to start in the majors after having two Tommy John surgeries.

Eovaldi spent last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, then missed the first two months after having arthroscopic surgery for loose bodies in his pitching elbow. Yet at long last, the flame throwing righty made his highly anticipated return to the mound and did not disappoint. After he walked the second batter of the game, Matt Olson, with one out in the first, Eovaldi went to work and retired the next 17 batters in order.

Eovaldi relied primarily on his upper 90’s fastball (topping out at 98 mph), and worked quickly and efficiently on the mound, needing just 70 pitches (46 strikes, 66% strike ratio, 32 fastball) to burn through the Athletics’ lineup. He lived at the top of the zone, and just off the plate, but brought his fastball back over the black occasionally. He also leaned on his splitter (14 thrown, eight strikes, three whiffs) and slider (nine thrown, five strikes, one whiff) when he needed a punch out, and his cutter to coax weak contact (seven ground ball and fly ball outs).

At-Bat results for Nathan Eovaldi. (Credit: Brooks Baseball)

Sure, he got some help from the fielders behind him — Johnny Field made a sliding catch in the third and then a leaping grab on Matt Joyce to end the frame, Carlos Gomez made a diving catch on Pinder’s liner in the sixth — but the fact that he was able to limit hard contact speaks volumes.

Dealing with a firm pitch-count in mind, Kevin Cash made the contentious decision to pull Eovaldi after the sixth.

It was tough, there was no doubt, but we have to do what’s right by him, Cash said. He wanted to stay but realistically he’s not getting to the ninth inning. I’ll just blame (pitching coach Kyle Snyder). I wanted to keep pitching him but Kyle told me to pull him.

Eovaldi wasn’t pleased with the decision, but understood why it was made.

I didn’t want to shake his hand, Eovaldi said. I haven’t gone seven innings in a really long time. So we played it safe and it was good. I would have liked to stay out there until I gave up a hit but I understand the situation as well.

On the offensive end of things, Tampa Bay took the lead against Sean Manaea in the second inning, after Carlos Gomez hit a wind-blown triple into the right-field corner with one out, and Johnny Field laced an RBI double to left-field, past the outstretched glove of a diving Joyce.

Then in the third inning, C.J. Cron was hit by a pitch to start the frame, before Wilson Ramos singled with one out, and Rob Refsnyder crushed a three-run homer to right-center (his second of the year) for a four-run advantage.

Meanwhile, Wilmer Font made his Rays debut in the seventh inning, taking over for Eovaldi. He got Matt Chapman to line to short before Jed Lowrie broke up the no-hitter on a single up the middle. Font also gave Rays fans a scare when Dustin Fowler hit a towering fly-ball to centerfield that Mallex Smith caught up against the wall. No harm done, Font struck out Mark Canha to end the frame.

Font pitched well overall, hitting 97 mph with his fastball and coaxing four whiffs. As Dough Waechter noted during the broadcast, his splitter was absolutely filthy when he spotted it up. He allowed just on batter to reach in two innings of work.

Then in the eighth, Field extended the lead to five on a solo-shot, over the left-field wall, off southpaw Danny Coulombe.

Field’s solo home run | 05/31/2018

Johnny Field hammers a solo home run over the left-field wall, giving the Rays a 5-0 lead in the top of the 8th inning

It was his fifth homer of the year.

Daniel Robertson singled to right two batters later, moved up to second and third on a pair of wild pitches, and then came home on a Cron double to left-center.

Cron’s RBI double | 05/31/2018

C.J. Cron smacks a double to center field, driving in Daniel Robertson to extend the Rays’ lead to 6-0 in the top of the 8th inning

All told, Tampa Bay collected 10 hits. Eight of nine starters had at least one hit, while Ramos and Field had two hits each.

Vidal Nuno ended the game with a scoreless ninth, wrapping up Tampa Bay’s second shutout in three games. Prior to this series, the Rays had not blanked an opponent all season.

With then win, the Rays leapt past Oakland in the AL Wildcard standings. They start the day one game behind the Angels, and five games behind the Mariners, who they will face in a three-game weekend series, starting tomorrow.

The New What Next

Both teams will wrap up a four-game series on Thursday afternoon, with Tampa Bay positioning itself for a sweep. Ryne Stanek (1-0, 3.24 ERA) will start with Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.21 ERA) expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. They’ll be opposed by Daniel Mengden (5-4, 2.85 ERA).

Daniel Mengdon tossed a two-hit gem Saturday against the Diamondbacks, en route to his fifth win of the season. He fanned five and issued zero walks. Mengdon continued to dominate, as he has now given up just four earned runs over his last 33-2/3 innings (1.07 ERA), including a current 17-inning scoreless streak. The 25 year-old right-hander coaxed 13 ground balls in that outing, which has been a big part of his success over this stretch. However, with only 43 strikeouts in 66-1/3 innings this season, and an insanely lucky — and unsustainable — .164 BABIP over the last 14-days, a regression is anticipated. This season he has relied primarily on his 93 mph four-seam fastball with some added backspin, while also mixing in an 85 mph slider with two-plane movement, a 93 mph sinker with little armside run and almost no sinking action, an 83 mph changeup that has some slight arm-side fade, and a 73 mph curveball. Key Matchup: CJ Cron (1-2)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Athletics — a series preview

Rays 5/31/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Cron DH
Wendle 2B
Ramos C
Robertson SS
Miller 1B
Refsnyder LF
Arroyo 3B
Field RF
Stanek RHP

Noteworthiness

— A win would cap an already plus .500 month of May.

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Playing Catchup: On Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero; Rays stadium update

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Andrew Moore posted 5-1/3 innings of 6 H/1 ER ball on Monday. He struck out three and walked none. (Photo Credit: Seattle Mariners)

Between writing series previews and recapping ball games — and everything in between — other subjects I’d like to cover tend to fall by the wayside. Lost in the shuffle of last week’s unexpected trade of Denard Span and Alex Colome to Seattle, was an analysis of Tampa Bay’s return from the deal, as well as a minor newsworthy, stadium saga blip. Since it always is my intention to revisit any missed subjects in a timely manner, consider this piece as that.

Rays return from the Span/Colome trade

Two hurlers, RHP Andrew Moore and RHP Tommy Romero, came to the Rays organization, from Seattle, in return for Span and Colome. One projects to reach the big leagues sooner than the other.

Andrew Moore

Moore, 23, was the key piece of the deal. Despite going 1-5, with a 5.34 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) for Seattle last season, Tampa Bay sees much more than his big league numbers might indicate. Rays GM Erik Neander said they see Moore as a Jake Odorizzi/Marco Estrada type of pitcher with great makeup. He was promptly sent to Triple-A Durham, where he posted 5-1/3 innings of 6 H/1 ER ball on Monday.

Neander acknowledged that there is a chance to see him later this season.

Andrew Moore is a player we value highly and think fits in really well to the group we have in place.

But what about his repertoire? Good question. Moore is a four-pitch hurler that demonstrated far better results in the minor leagues than in the bigs, posting a 3-4 record with a 3.48 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and a 5.07 K/BB in 14 starts (75 innings) with Seattle’s Triple-A farm team last season.

Moore boasts a 90 mph fastball, although his secondary pitches are more functional than anything else, leaving him with no real put-away pitch, and forcing him to depend on contact to get outs. His changeup is his best swing-and-miss offering.

Like Odorizzi, Moore is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with ground-ball rates in the 20s and 30s in the upper minors. Moore has gotten punished for leaving mistakes out over the plate — he averaged an 8.4% middle of the strike zone rate, compared to the league average of 7.3%. Pair that with his 48.9% fly-ball rate, and it’s safe to say lot of balls sailed over the fence.

Moore can throw strikes, without a doubt, but against big league hitters he’ll need to throw better strikes.

Tommy Romero

Romero just joined the Class-A Bowling Green Hot Rods.

The 20 year-old righty is thickly built and has the look of a future back of the rotation innings eater. According to Baseball Prospectus, his delivery has some effort but it’s clean and repeatable, allowing for future plus command potential.

Romero’s 91-92 mph fastball is heavy with some arm-side run, and tops out at 93 mph. He spots the pitch well low in the zone, and generates a lot of ground balls in doing so. He does tend to elevate the four-seamer in pitcher’s counts. Moore’s 83 mph changeup is his most advanced secondary offering. Romero replicates his arm speed, while the pitch shows some nice fade. His curveball is a work in progress, with mild break. It, however, is inconsistent and lacks feel.

Can the Rays draw more fans in Tampa?

Tampa Bay Times staff writer Chris O’Donnell published an article on Tuesday seeking to answer that very question, titled Rays move to Ybor City would put team within heart of region’s population, study shows.

The article is based on an analysis by county planners, in both Hillsborough and Pinellas, conducted at the request of the Tampa Bay Times. The results, using future population projections, are similar to a 2010 study by the ABC Coalition. Both studies said the further you moved a proposed facility away from Westshore (the population center of Tampa Bay), the fewer fans could get there in 30 minutes. The ABC Coalition study found that there is a difference of just 78,000 between Gateway/Mid-Pinellas and Ybor/Downtown Tampa.

O’Donnell writes, that if the Rays were to take the field today at — let’s call it Cigar City Stadium (in Ybor) — they would draw from a population of almost 920,000 people within a 10 mile radius.

Widen that to 15 miles and the numbers swell to 1.2 million people.

Regional demographic findings from the 2010 ABC Coalition study. (Credit: Noah Pransky)

Although how much that would raise actual attendance depends on other factors, although putting a ballpark within easier reach of that many more people would help, said Patrick Rishe (director of the sports business program at Washington University in St. Louis), who was quoted in the article.

Getting from one part of Tampa Bay to another can be an issue, Rishe said. There’s no question that when you play so many games, proximity and convenience is vital.

Likewise, building a facility that 600,000 people could reach easily might add just 2,000 more fans on weekdays, said John Vrooman (Vanderbilt University sports economist) — a reasonable estimate, yet far from game changing for the Rays.

What’s more, O’Donnell also conceded that moving across the bay might mean abandoning many long-time Rays fans, citing a storyline from 2014, and Roger Noll (professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University).

When the 49ers left San Francisco for Santa Clara in 2014, the composition of season-ticket holders shifted dramatically towards the area’s South Bay. The Rays might experience something similar.

Noll also warned that a new stadium may only translate into a short-term boost in annual attendance. Even though Tampa is larger, it’s population is a little poorer and younger than St. Petersburg, may be less attracted to baseball.

The initial honeymoon effect of a new stadium will increase attendance a lot — probably by a million or more. But the honeymoon will wear off in a few years, and the new location is probably worth an additional attendance of 200,000 to 300,000 a few years down the road, said Noll.

At the end of the day, Stu Sternberg can stake his claim in Ybor City — and the Hillsborough County Commission, led by Ken Hagan, can try to cobble together a funding mechanism — but that doesn’t change the fact that Hillsborough County does not have the money to build the Rays a stadium. Articles will continue to be published, leading you to believe that a resolution to the Stadium Saga is just around the corner. Charlatans will continue to bang the drum for a 100% privately financed stadium in the 13th largest media market in the country, when that monumental feat has never been accomplished in the biggest of media markets, like New York City or Los Angeles. It is true, a stadium in Ybor would put the team closer to more fans, but so would one built in Gateway/Mid-Pinellas, where there is much more money available. In the words of Noah Pransky (WTSP Action News) don’t cross that (St. Petersburg) off the list just yet — the Rays sure aren’t.

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