The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees part three — a series preview

Blake Snell will get the start in the series finale against the Yankees, on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are set to start a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Friday night. Tampa Bay is 2-5 over a seven game span after dropping two of three against Houston, while New York has won four in a row and seven of its last eight contests.

(Stats Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Yankees moved in front of Boston in the AL East this week by pulling off a three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners, recovering from a five run deficit to walk off with a 7-5 win on Wednesday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Suffice it to say, neither team has lit up the score board of late. That, however, is not to say that either team is incapable of performing better, because they are. Rather the Yankees have done two things the Rays have not:

  1. Come up with key, clutch hits. Three of the Rays’ last five losses have come by a three-run margin or less, while eight of the Yankees last 10 wins have come by three runs or fewer.
  2. Hold late leads. It is well documented that New York’s bullpen is very good, and well … it tends to hold late leads.

If Tampa Bay is going to have any chance of walking away with more than a win, it will have to take an early lead and hold it throughout.

As with any other time they Rays have faced the Yankees, beware of the long-ball! While they haven’t been an offensive juggernaut of late, the Yankees offense still has managed a .217 ISO and a 21.6% HR/FB over the last 14 days.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryan Stanek (1-1, 2.21 ERA) and presumably Ryan Yarbrough (5-3, 4.21 ERA) based on how things line up, Wilmer Font (0-1, 2.20 ERA), and Blake Snell (9-4, 2.48 ERA) over the next three days. Aaron Boone will counter with CC Sabathia (4-2, 3.30 ERA), Sonny Gray (5-4, 4.89 ERA), and Domingo German (2-3, 5.09 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek made the sixth start of the season on Monday and retired all five batters he faced on just 11 pitches. Stanek hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances (10-2/3 innings) since June 2. Ryan Yarbrough took the loss on Saturday, allowing four runs on six hits over 3-2/3 innings. The southpaw struck out four and issued three walks. Yarbrough’s inability to throw strikes quickly put the Rays in a hole, of which they could never recover.

CC Sabathia allowed three runs on 10 hits and one walk over 7-2/3 innings of a loss against the Rays on Sunday. Sabathia struck out 10. All of the big damage to Sabathia’s line came in a three run/four hit second inning, with an additional runner getting thrown out at home (Matt Duffy). He had posted more than five strikeouts just twice this season heading in, but he — somewhat surprisingly — racked up double-digit punchouts for the first time since August of 2016. Overall Sabathia has pitched well of late, sporting a 2.84 ERA over four starts (25-1/3 total innings). Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-4), CJ Cron (3-11, HR, 2 RBI), Matt Duffy (3-6, 2 RBI), Carlos Gomez (7-19, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (7-14, 2B, 3B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (5-13, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Wilson Ramos (3-8)  

Wilmer Font has made three consecutive starts, pitching deeper each time — going from 2-1/3 innings to 3-1/3 to 4-2/3 against the Yankees on Sunday. The right-hander has allowed three runs on eight hits during that 10-1/3-inning stretch, lowering his ERA from +12 to 7.56. And while Rays remain committed to using an “opener” three times in five game stretches, Font showed that he should be able to handle starting, at least until Chris Archer returns.

Sonny Gray allowed two runs on six hits and one walk over five innings on Monday. He struck out seven. Aside from the second and fourth innings, when Gray put multiple men aboard and allowed an RBI groundout and a sacrifice-fly, he limited baserunners effectively. He pounded the strike zone at a 71% clip while coaxing 16 whiffs. Six groundball outs also helped him mitigate the damage. Gray has begun to turn things around after an abysmal start and has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, allowing him to lower his ERA to 4.89. This season Gray has relied primarily on his 94 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action, 94 mph sinker with armside run and above average velocity, and an 82 mph curveball with sweeping glove-side movement and exceptional bit, while also mixing in an 86 mph sweeping slider with exceptional depth. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6, HR, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-16, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Wilson Ramos (3-11, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (3-9)

Blake Snell was credited the win Tuesday after he allowed one run on three hits and seven walks while fanning six over seven innings against Houston. Snell wasn’t at his sharpest with a season-high seven walks and only just over half of his pitches going for strikes (57 of 102, 56% strike rate), though he allowed just three base hits and was helped out by his defense with a couple of double plays and another out on the basepaths. Snell’s nine wins trail only Corey Kluber and Luis Severino in the American League, and he now sports a sterling 2.48 ERA. The southpaw has struggled with command of late with a 1.15 K/BB in his last three starts (18 innings), yet he’s now at 9.8 K/9 on the season.

Domingo German will make his ninth start of the season in the series finale against the Rays. Last time out, the righty pitched a career-high seven innings, allowing just a solo home run and two hits to the Mariners. German (2-4) earned the win against the Mariners on Tuesday, allowing two runs (one earned) on two hits across seven innings. He walked none and recorded nine punch outs. This season German has relied primarily on a whiffy 83 mph 12-6 curveball and a hard 96 mph four-seam fastball that generates plenty of swings and misses, while also mixing in an 88 mph changeup with obvious armside fade, and a 96 mph sinker with natural sink. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3), Matt Duffy (2-3, HR, RBI), Wilson Ramos (1-3, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-3, RBI)

LBWMF: Rays bounce back from loss with 2-1 win against ‘Stros

Blake Snell was the definition of effectively wild last night, walking seven but allowing just one run. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays bounced back from a gut wrenching loss on Monday, scoring late and holding on to defeat the defending world champs, 2-1, Tuesday night. Wilson Ramos’ go ahead RBI single in the top of the eighth inning proved to be the winning run for Tampa Bay, while an effectively wild Blake Snell held the Astros to just one run over seven innings of work.

Snell immediately found himself in trouble in the first inning. Houston loaded the bases with one out, but Evan Gattis flew out to Carlos Gomez in right. George Springer chose to test the arm of his former teammate, tagging up and trying to score from third, however, he was thrown out — he missed the plate on his slide and was tagged out by Ramos.

Gomez cuts down Springer for DP | 06/20/2018

Carlos Gomez catches a fly ball in shallow right field, then fires home to nab George Springer and end the 1st inning

After Gomez stole the run from Houston, C.J. Cron launched a 95 mph Justin Verlander fastball (over the inner third of the plate) deep into the Crawford Boxes in left.

The solo shot was Cron’s 16th home run of the season which tied a career high. This time though, he reached the milestone in just 70 games, which is 30 games fewer than in previous seasons.

Houston tied the game in the bottom of the third when Springer reached on a one-out fielder’s choice. After a wild-pitch moved Springer into scoring position, Alex Bregman, hit a deep single to right field, plating the run. Yet Bregman was also thrown out by Gomez as he attempted to stretch the base hit into a double.

Houston rallied once again in the bottom of the sixth, and it all started when Snell allowed back-to-back free passes to Bregman and Carlos Correa to start the frame. Yet the southpaw got Yuli Gurriel to ground into a 6-4-3 double play. After Kevin Cash opted to walk Evan Gattis, putting runners on the corners, Tony Kemp flew out to center to end the threat.

Kevin Kiermaier made his return to the starting lineup in his first game since tearing a ligament in his right thumb. The Outlaw was immediately placed into the leadoff spot, where he went 0-5 at the plate. He, however, did make a nice leaping catch at the wall in deep right-center to end the seventh inning.

Tampa Bay reclaimed the lead with a one-run rally in the top of the eighth. Matt Duffy led off the frame with a first pitch double to right against reliever Hector Rondon. After the game, Duffy said he watched how Rondon worked Kiermaier with two outs in the seventh. This, along with what he knew about the reliever, as well as from the scouting reports, the Rays’ third baseman was convinced that he’d get a slider at some point in the at-bat.

Typically catcher’s call fall into patterns, too, Duffy said. Verlander was slider, slider, slider my third at-bat and I didn’t look great on ’em. That combined with the fact that he’s slider-heavy in general. He wasn’t afraid of his slider to (Kevin Kiermaier, for the out of the seventh) which typically right on left a guy’s not going to throw as many sliders.

I feel like it was just a lot of factors adding the fact that he might try to sneak a strike with a slider.

Rondon did, and Duffy made him pay.

Jake Bauers followed with a fielder’s choice to the right side, moving Duffy up third base.

Biggest at-bat of the night, Duffy said. Let him swing the bat there against a tough pitcher who’s got a lot of velo behind him. It’s not easy to get around that ball. A veteran (pitcher) like that, a lot of times he’ll see a young guys who’s trying to get the head (of the bat) out he’ll just feed him off-speed pitches to get him to swing and miss. Just a professional at-bat.

Finally, Ramos chopped a ball that ticked off the glove of a leaping Gurriel with the infield drawn in. Duffy got a good enough jump and easily scored what became the winning run.

That made a winner out of Snell, who threw seven effectively wild innings; outlasting Justin Verlander in a matchup he was very excited about. The southpaw gave up seven walks (one intentional) — a career high — but also allowed three hits and just one run against one of the top offenses in the game. He fanned six and threw 102 pitches overall (57 strikes, 56% strike rate). Snell also coaxed a pair of big double plays.

Very excited we beat a great starting pitcher in Verlander, best in the league, and were able to get the win, Snell said after the game. Just a great team win.

Snell became the first pitcher to work seven or more innings and walk at least seven since Edwin Jackson’s 149-pitch, eight-walk no-hitter against the Rays on June 25, 2010.

A day after he opened the game, Ryne Stanek pitched a perfect eighth despite a trio of three-ball counts.

Then in the ninth, with veteran relievers Johnny Venters and Sergio Romo warming behind him, Jose Alvarado allowed a single to Evan Gattis before he pinch-hitter Jose Altuve to flew out deep to center. Sergio Romo entered the game and struck out Max Stassi before Tony White reached on a fluky infield hit that trickled past the mound. Nevertheless Romo got Jake Marisnick to pop out to second, ending the game.

The New What Next

The Rays wrap up their road trip on Wednesday with Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 4.63 ERA) on the mound. He will be opposed by Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.94 ERA).

Nathan Eovaldi allowed five runs over 7-1/3 innings in his last start on Friday. He struck out five. Eovaldi largely cruised through the Yankees lineup, with the exceptions of a third inning solo shot and a sixth inning sac fly, before running out of gas in a three-run eighth. Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his four starts since returning from the DL, allowing three runs or more in three of those starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four career starts against the Astros.

Charlie Morton allowed three runs on four hits over six innings against the Royals on Friday. He struck out nine and walked four. Morton gave up a two-run double to Mike Moustakas in the third inning then later walked Moustakas with the bases loaded in the fifth. The walks are a problem for Morton (he walked six in 3-2/3 innings in his previous start), but he was still able to come away with the win thanks to an Evan Gattis grand slam. The right-hander has performed to a 2.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along with an excellent 3.18 K/BB over 82-2/3 innings. This season Morton has relied primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball with obvious tail and natural sinking action, a whiffy 80 mph knuckle curveball with sweeping glove-side movement and sharp downward bite, and a 96 mph two-seam sinker with some slight armside run, while also mixing in a whiffy 89 mph cutter and an 88 mph splitter with armside fade. Morton is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (6-16, HR), Adeiny Hechavarria (2 2B, BB), Wilson Ramos (5-13, RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Astros — a series preview

Rays 6/20/18 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Hechavarria SS
Bauers 1B
Ramos C
Wendle 3B
Adames 2B
Smith LF
Gomez DH
Field RF
Eovaldi RHP

Rays 6/19/18 pregame notes; Kevin Kiermaier activated from DL

Kevin Kiermaier will be donning a Rays jersey Tuesday night. (Photo Credit: Durham Bulls)

The Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back tonight after a gut wrenching, 5-4 loss to the Houston Astros on Monday.

Kevin Kiermaier, who has been out since April 15th after suffering a torn ligament in his right thumb — requiring surgery and a two-month stint on the DL — against Philadelphia, has been activated and will hit leadoff. The Rays have gone 30-27 in the time without Kiermaier, which is better than each of the previous two years when he missed significant chunks of the season.

The two-time Gold Glove winner went 7-17 over the course of his rehab stint, with a double, a triple, an RBI, two walks and a stolen base.

I squared up a lot of balls, had great at-bats, Kiermaier said. So I texted Cash, I texted (Mottola) quite a few times. And I said, ‘How many more line drives is it going to take for me to get a call to Houston?’ I guess I convinced them enough. … I’m where I need to be right now, and I’m excited to take the field tomorrow with these guys.

He is returning two games earlier than expected and will face Justin Verlander, arguably the American League’s top pitcher this season.

Hey, you face the best, and he’s having a great year, Kiermaier said. I knew what I was getting myself into, and I didn’t want to wait until Friday, to be honest. I feel like I’m fully capable right now. So I’m glad they flew me to Houston.

To make room for Kiermaier on the 25 and 40-man rosters, the Rays designated infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder for assignment.

While Refsnyder drew walks at an excellent 17.5% clip in 103 plate appearances for the Rays, he performed to an overall .167 BA/.314 OBP/.274 SLG/.588 OPS/74 wRC+ slash line, with two homers, 10 runs and five RBI. He’s a lifetime 68 wRC+ hitter in 423 big league plate appearances.

Refsnyder was facing diminished playing time due to Kiermaier’s return. He played primarily against lefties, and that role is now likely to be filled by Johnny Field, who will platoon left-field with Mallex Smith.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (8-4, 2.58 ERA) will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.61 ERA).

Blake Snell allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over five innings on Thursday. He struck out eight. Snell had won his last four decisions heading in to this tough matchup against the Yankees, last taking a loss on May 13 against the Orioles. That was also the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. Even with the rough outing, the southpaw has performed to a stellar 2.58 ERA across 87-1/3 innings with a 3.34 K/BB. Snell is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in three career starts against Houston.

Justin Verlander allowed three runs on five hits while striking out seven across seven innings against the Athletics on Thursday. It wasn’t Verlander’s sharpest performance, as the right-hander allowed a pair of homers in the game, but it got the job done. At the end of May he owned a 1.11 ERA, although that number jumped to a still-pristine 1.61 after Thursday’s contest. This season Verlander has relied on a whiffy 95 mph four-seam fastball with good “rising” action, and an 87 mph slider. He has also mixed in an 80 mph curveball with sharp downward bite. The 35 year-old is 8-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 16 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Rob Refsnyder (2-2, RBI), Mallex Smith (1-4, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Astros — a series preview

Rays 6/19/18 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duffy 3B
Bauers 1B
Ramos C
Wendle 2B
Cron DH
Smith LF
Gomez RF
Hechavarria SS
Snell LHP

Rays Roster Moves: Rob Refsnyder designated for assignment

In order to clear room on the 25 and 40-man rosters ahead of Kevin Kiermaier’s activation from the DL, the Rays have designated Rob Refsnyder for assignment.

The Tampa Bay Rays have designated infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder for assignment ahead of the activation of centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier from the 60-day DL.

The 27 year-old Refsnyder received a 40-game trial run in Tampa Bay, however, he failed to produce at a convincing clip at the plate — something that has plagued him over his career.

While Refsnyder drew walks at an excellent 17.5% clip in 103 plate appearances for the Rays, he performed to an overall .167 BA/.314 OBP/.274 SLG/.588 OPS/74 wRC+ slash line, with two homers, 10 runs and five RBI. He’s a lifetime 68 wRC+ hitter in 423 big league plate appearances.

Refsnyder was facing diminished playing time due to Kiermaier’s return. He played primarily against lefties, and that role is now likely to be filled by Johnny Field, who will platoon left-field with Mallex Smith.

The Rays could have instead designated Carlos Gomez or a pitcher; or as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) suggested, they could have sent down Field and created the 40-man opening by dropping someone who is in the minors.

Rays Injury Update: Kiermaier slated to return Tuesday; on Robertson and Archer

Kevin Kiermaier injured his right thumb, requiring surgery, on a headfirst slide into second base back on April 15. (Photo Credit: WANE.com)

The Tampa Bay Rays are slated to make a handful of roster moves this week, starting with the activation of Kevin Kiermaier from the 60-day disabled list on Tuesday.

Kiermaier injured his right thumb, requiring surgery to repair a torn ligament, on a headfirst slide into second base back on April 15. His activation will come a couple days ahead of his most recent timetable, which had him slated to return at the end of the week when the Rays return home from their current road trip.

Kiermaier was persistent with manager Kevin Cash and hitting coach Chad Mottola, telling reporters that he texted both multiple times in an attempt to convince them he was ready after just five rehab games. The two-time Gold Glove winner went 7-17 over the course of his rehab stint, with a double, a triple, an RBI, two walks and a stolen base.

I squared up a lot of balls, had great at-bats, Kiermaier said. So I texted Cash, I texted (Mottola) quite a few times. And I said, ‘How many more line drives is it going to take for me to get a call to Houston?’ I guess I convinced them enough. … I’m where I need to be right now, and I’m excited to take the field tomorrow with these guys.

Manager Kevin Cash said the Rays training staff felt Kiermaier was ready.

We thought, talking to K.K. and talking to the training staff and then obviously the Durham staff, that he was in a good spot physically and mentally, Cash said. We’re a better team when K.K. is on the field.

Even though there is some lingering soreness in his surgically repaired thumb, Kiermaier will instantly go back to centerfield, with Mallex Smith likely sliding over to left to share time with Johnny Field. Carlos Gomez will presumably remain in right.

The team will need to make room on both the 25-man and 40-man rosters, as Kiermaier is currently on the 60-day DL.

Daniel Robertson (left hamstring strain) will play second base in the first game of a doubleheader for Port Charlotte on Tuesday, and if all goes well he will be activated Friday. According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times, Twitter link) that seems to be a driving force for them to make a deal for Adeiny Hechavarria.

Chris Archer (left abdominal strain) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Friday. Even if everything goes well, Archer is likely several weeks away from a return as he will need some rehab starts before returning to the team. The right-hander most recently played catch on Friday and felt well afterward.