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The New What Next: Rays Vs. Blue Jays — a series preview

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One of the few bright spots in Sunday’s ball game. Catcher Jesus Sucre scored all the way from second on Evan Longoria’s RBI hit. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays ended their latest scoreless streak Sunday afternoon, although the ultimately fell to Cleveland, 4-3. Cleveland took three of four from Tampa Bay, which dropped seven of nine during the home stand. The Rays boarded a plane for the cooler digs of Toronto, where they’ll take on the Blue Jays over the next four days.

(Stats: ESPN)

‘Cause I am barely breathing, and I can’t find the air.
— Duncan Sheik

The Rays snapped their scoreless streak at 20 innings with a third-inning RBI single by Evan Longoria, capping the number of times the Rays were shut out during the homestand at five — finishing a 17-game stretch in which the Rays played teams in playoff contention. They, however, went 6-11.

Perhaps, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) suggested, a change of scenery could do the struggling team some good. After all, they didn’t cross the plate too often at the Trop.

They scored 1.22 runs per game during the homestand — their fewest during any three-series homestand in team history.

They scored 11 runs during the nine games, which were the fewest over a nine-game stretch in the majors since the Indians scored 11 in August 2012.

Longoria’s run-scoring single was the Rays’ third hit that inning, marking the only time during the homestand they had three hits in one inning and the first time they turned that trick since Aug. 1 in Houston.

“So much has changed it seems nothing ever changes.” — The Lawrence Arms

The Rays start this crucial series against Toronto with their playoff hopes intact, but also in the balance. If the team can succeed and put together a good series — and get back over .500 — Tampa Bay could regain a foothold in an AL Wildcard chase in which the leader has changed hands over seven consecutive days (as of Sunday). However, this could also be the end of their postseason aspirations if they continue to stagnate. Dare I call it a make or break moment?

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will hand the ball off to Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA, 5.65 FIP), Blake Snell (0-6, 4.69 ERA, 4.87 FIP), Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA, 3.63 FIP), and Chris Archer (8-7, 3.84 ERA, 3.17 FIP). John Farrell will counter with Nick Tepesch (0-1, 10.38 ERA, 10.99 FIP), Marco Estrada (5-7, 4.85 ERA, 4.35 FIP), Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.75 FIP), and Chris Rowley (1-0, 1.69 ERA, 2.58 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi struggled with his pitch count early in his last start on Wednesday, throwing 55 pitches over the first two frames. He was struck on his heel by an Eduardo Nunez comebacker on his 89th pitch of the night. Odorizzi was helped off the field without putting any weight on his right leg, but thankfully the X-Rays on his right foot came back negative. The right-hander tested his foot in a bullpen session, and the Rays have him a green light to start Monday night in Toronto.

Tepesch allowed five runs on eight hits over 4-1/3 innings during his last start against New York. He has a temporary hold on a rotation spot until Joe Biagini is properly stretched out at Triple-A Buffalo. This season he has relied primarily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball, and an 86 mph slider. He’s also mixed in a 79 mph knuckle curveball, and a 90 mph sinker. Tepesch is 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA over two career starts (totaling 14-1/3 innings) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchup: 2-7, HR, 2 RBI

Snell put together one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday, limiting Cleveland to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out four over 6-1/3 innings. The southpaw leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Estrada was again excellent in his last time turn, and he’s now gone seven innings in three consecutive starts. The right-hander has pitched to contact of late, coaxing plenty of weak fly-ball outs. After performing to a 9.52 ERA through nine starts, Estrada has now allowed just six runs in 26 innings over his past four outings. The Rays torched Estrada for 16 runs over his previous three starts, totaling 14-1/3 innings. They hope to see the negatively regressed right-hander on Tuesday. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (8-17, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-18, 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI), Daniel Robertson (2-4), Steven Souza Jr. (4-16, HR, 4 RBI), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Faria was perfect through the front four innings against Cleveland on Friday, before he allowed a career-high five runs — on a homer and four horrendous fielding gaffes by Wilson Ramos and Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller. It was just the second time in his previous 12 big league starts that he’s allowed more than three runs. He has gone six or more innings in 10 of those starts.

Stroman was excellent his last time out, although poor defense led to four unearned runs. The right-hander gave up all four runs in the third inning against Pittsburgh, but he shut the Pirates’ bats down the rest of the way. After struggling over a pair of recent starts, he’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 14-2/3 innings of work to lower his ERA from 3.19 to 3.00. Overall, he has generated a huge ground ball rate with his sinking fastball, and he is capable of working deeply into each game. The Rays couldn’t get much started against Stroman in two starts against Tampa Bay this season, tagging him for just three runs over 13-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (2-3, 3B), Corey Dickerson (6-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (5-15, 2B, 2 BB)

Archer saw his 15-start streak of pitching at least six innings come to pass Saturday night against Cleveland, after surrendering three runs in 5-1/3 innings. Archer allowed single runs in the first, third and sixth innings, but was fairly inefficient, thus his removal one out into the sixth. The right-hander continues to collect strikeouts, and he’s consistently kept his ERA just below 4.00 over the past month and a half. He is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts against Toronto this season.

Rowley was excellent in his Major League debut on August 12, working very quickly over 5-1/3 innings, while allowing just one run on five hits. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing, but he could go longer against the Rays. According to one scouting report, Rowley is a finesse pitcher that will move the ball around the zone:

Rowley will not blow the ball by hitters. Topping out at 91-92, he relies on command and his secondaries to keep hitters off balance:

“My game is based on throwing three pitches, all at different speeds, all in the strike zone and all moving differently, and the idea is for them to look the same until they get to the plate,” said Rowley.

Still, he has managed to strike out almost a batter per inning at AA. Rowley’s 47% ground ball rate shows that he excels at keeping the ball down in the zone, and his 15.8% line drive rate is proof that while he pitches to contact, it’s not often of the hard variey.  The knock against him may be that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but the other side of that coin is that his sinker is very tough to square up, and his change and slider keep hitters off balance.

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Deep thoughts on the Rays offensive slump (and no, you can’t blame Shelton this time)

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Chris Archer was hit by a Giovanny Urshela comebacker in the fifth inning on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

After being shut out for the second consecutive game — and the fifth time in eight games — the Tampa Bay Rays look to split the four-game series against Cleveland in a matinee ball game this afternoon.

The Rays prolonged offensive slump continued Saturday evening against a hurler that had performed to a 15.00 ERA/5.81 FIP over the last 14-days. Yet here were are Sunday, in the waning hours leading up to the first pitch, and things will not get any easier this afternoon against one of the best pitchers in the league. The Rays have now scored just eight runs in eight games — becoming the first team to do so since the Dodgers in 2012 (June 23–30). They are hitting .175 during this prolonged stretch, and are 2-for-35 wRISP. Tampa Bay is at .500 for the first time since June 16th.

I will never imply that Derek Shelton was better equipped to be the Rays hitting coach than Chad Mottola. In fact, the players appear to respond better to Mottola than they did to Shelton. However, with Shelton out of the way, there’s no scapegoating the team’s lack of offensive production, nor can we blame any member of the coaching staff for the team’s collective woes. Simply put, the league has adjusted to the Rays’ free swinging ways, and the Rays haven’t adjusted back. When you attempt to launch every pitch into the outfield stands, and you change your launch angle so you can create some lift, you expose yourself to strikeouts as well as weak grounders and fly balls. That’s especially true when pitchers try to avoid the homer juice zone between 2-1/2 feet and four feet above the ground.

Take Logan Morrison for example. He has seen his fly ball rate fluctuate from 37.1% in April, to 52.9% in May, 47.1% in June, 47.8% in July, and finally 44.8% in August. It’s no coincidence that he hit a monthly high-watermark 10 home runs in May, when he had a higher FB% and hit the ball harder.

To their credit, the Rays are still in the playoff hunt … but just barely. The two Wildcard spots are for the taking, and in the last five days, five different teams have held a share of second AL Wildcard spot; the AL Wildcard leader has changed hands in seven straight days. However, if Tampa Bay cannot take advantage of the chances the are given, it’s all for not.

The New What Next

Austin Pruitt (6-3, 5.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP) will start for the Rays this afternoon, toeing the rubber opposite of Corey Kluber (10-3, 2.65 ERA, 2.43 FIP).

Pruitt nearly matched Chris Sale, working around a leadoff double to start the game, and facing just one over the minimum over the first three frames. Boston was able to touch the right-hander for a one-run rally, but he limited the damage, and worked around any trouble all night. Pruitt scattered seven hits (only one to the pull side) and one walk, while fanning five and holding the Red Sox to 0-for-8 wRISP.

Kluber pitched Cleveland to victory with his second consecutive complete-game performance in his last turn. He allowed one run on three hits with no walks and 11 punch outs against the Rockies on Tuesday. Kluber now has 13 straight starts with eight-plus strikeouts. Even though he missed a month on the DL due to a back injury, the right-hander ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 172 strikeouts over 132-2/3 innings. Since his return, the 31-year-old is 7-1 with a 1.70 ERA over 13 starts. Key Matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-9, 2 2B), Evan Longoria (7-20, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Trevor Plouffe (13-46, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI)

You can read about the series, and so much more, in our preview.

Rays 8/13/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Sucre C
Pruitt RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier went 0-for-4 with a run scored yesterday for the Charlotte Stone Crabs as the DH in his first post-back strain rehab game. Kiermaier will DH again today and Matt Andriese will make a rehab start on the mound.

— Just how historic has this slump been?

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With their postseason hopes on the line, the Rays look to bounce back from tough 5-0 loss

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Contrary to popular belief, a Rays infielder could make a play last night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After an ugly 5-0 loss to Cleveland last night, the Tampa Bay Rays look bounce back and scratch out a tally in the win column.

At 59-58 on the season, the Rays are now 2-5 on their nine-game home stand against playoff contenders. Yet in spite of the loss, Tampa Bay still finds itself in a logjam for the last postseason spot — in a three-way tie with the Mariners and the Angels, and a half game behind the Twins, who’ve won six straight — and 3-1/2 behind New York, which has the top wild card. Kansas City is 1-1/2 games back, while Baltimore is two off the pace.

Per FanGraphs, the Rays are the favorite to take the last Wildcard spot … but not by much. Here are the updated playoff odds:

Rays 27.7%
Twins 23.3%
Angels 21.9%
Mariners 19.9%
Royals 18.4%
Orioles, Rangers 7%

That is, the Rays have a good team, and if they could start playing as they had in June and July, their first postseason berth since 2013 would appear to be imminent.

Chris Archer (8-6, 3.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP) will get the start tonight for the Rays tonight, pitching opposite of Mike Clevinger (5-4, 3.70 ERA, 4.26 FIP).

Archer held the Brewers to one run on three hits over six innings, but came away with a no-decision. He has made 15 consecutive  starts of at least six innings pitched — the longest such streak of his career. The right-hander was in command of his repertoire and mowed down Milwaukee’s hitters over the first five frames, allowing just one walk and a hit in the process. It was an encouraging turn for Archer, who had given up a total of seven earned runs over his previous two starts against Houston and New York.

Clevinger will make his first start since July 31, when he allowed five runs in three innings against Boston. The right-hander was briefly moved to the ‘pen after he allowed a combined 10 earned runs in his previous two starts. Clevinger has just 1/3 of an inning of experience against the Rays, which came out of the bullpen in May. This season he has relied primarily upon 93 mph worm-burner four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a whiffy 81 mph slider, a firm 87 mph swing-and-miss changeup, and a 75 mph curveball.

You can read about the series, and so much more, in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup upon availability.

Rays 8/12/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda 1B
Souza RF
Morrison DH
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Plouffe 3B
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Archer CF

Noteworthiness

— After suffering a left thumb contusion Friday night, third baseman Evan Longoria will not be in the lineup tonight, although he will be available off the bench to pinch hit if needed. Longoria tested out his thumb in the batting cage this afternoon, and though it reportedly felt good, he said the smart thing is to give it a day of rest.

— Even though Wilson Ramos is hampered by continued problems behind the plate, and a massive “six hits in his last 47 plate appearances” slump, there he sits in the middle of tonight’s lineup, hitting sixth. Ramos has just three home runs to his name, and his last one came against the Red Sox on July 6.

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LBWMF: Corey Dickerson and the Rays snap skids with a 4-1 win over Cleveland

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The face of a player with a HUGE burden lifted off his shoulders. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A pair of long skids came to an end Thursday night. Corey Dickerson ended an 0-for-21 stretch at the plate with a three-run two-out homer in the eighth inning, while the Rays ended an 0-for-31 stretch with runners in scoring position. When all was said and done, Tampa Bay took the first of four from Cleveland with a 4–1 victory.

The Rays start the day tied with Seattle for the final Wildcard slot, 2-1/2 games behind New York for the top Wildcard slot, and 7-1/2 games behind Boston in the division. Of the remaining 46 games, 17 are against the Royals, Red Sox and Yankees, while another 10 are against the Mariners and Orioles, teams right behind the Rays in the race.

Cleveland took the initial lead three batters into the ballgame after Francisco Lindor hit a ground rule double down the left field line. Lindor moved to third on a Jason Kipnis groundout to second, then came home on a Jose Ramirez infield single.

Yet never mind the fact that Blake Snell has been plagued by inconsistent performances all season season, the southpaw settled in and retired seven consecutive batters before he allowed a leadoff double to Kipnis in the fourth inning. Snell later walked two batters before striking out Brandon Guyer to end the threat.

Meanwhile, after leaving seven runners on base over the first four innings against Danny Salazar — and going 0-for-their-last-31 wRISP overall — the Rays broke through in the fifth inning to tie the game at one. Lucas Duda walked to start the rally, then went to second on Evan Longoria’s single to left. Logan Morrison, who hit a single to center in his previous at-bat, drove in a run on a base hit to right-center, tying the game at one. But with runners on the corners and none out, Steven Souza Jr. struck out, and Brad Miller grounded into a 4–6–3 double play, ending the threat.

All that glitters isn’t gold, and a defensive miscue allowed Cleveland to threaten once once again when Austin Jackson hit a one-out, seventh inning flair into left-center. What should have been a base hit bounded past both Corey Dickerson and Mallex Smith, allowing Jackson to pull into third. And even though Snell pitched well enough to keep his team in the game, the defense let him down. Snell’s night was done after he posted a 6.1 IP/4 H/1 ER/2 BB/4 K line on 101 pitches (61 strikes).

Snell leaned heavily on his fastball (65 thrown, 36 strikes, five whiffs) to great effect. Even though he wasn’t pitch perfect (pun intended) — he didn’t rack up a ton of strikes, and he left more than a few pitches in the zone — Snell settled in, and more importantly, kept the ball in the park. The left-hander attributed his strong start to the game plan called by Jesus Sucre.

Kevin Cash called upon Tommy Hunter to get the final two outs of the frame. The right-hander got pinch-hitter Jay Bruce to pop out to short on the first pitch he saw. Then, after Yan Gomes worked the count full, Hunter struck out Cleveland’s backstop on a 98 mph middle-up fastball.

Hunter followed with a perfect eighth, helping set the table for a dramatic home half of the inning.

The Rays started their go-ahead rally against right-handed relief hurler Nick Goody. Adeiny Hechavarria worked the count full before he singled to left with one out. Hech swiped second, then went to third as the responding throw from Gomes skipped into centerfield.

With the infield in and a runner at third, Smith tried to put down a sacrifice bunt, yet popped it up down the third base line instead. Johnny Urshela charged in and appeared to have caught the ball, but it squirted free from under his arm. Suffice it to say, Smith caught a break. Now with two strikes against him, Smith again tried to lay down a bunt … and again popped it up, this time to first. Three infielders converged but on the ball, yet first baseman Carlos Santana took his eyes off of it, and the balled glanced off of his glove and bounded into foul territory. Regardless of the outcome, it was a bunt strikeout which stranded Hechavarria at third.

Jesus Sucre was hit hard by a pitch, bringing up Dickerson with runners on the corners. Mired in the throes of an extended skid, and an 0-for-4 night at the plate, Dickerson squared up the first pitch he saw and sent it just over the centerfield wall for the go ahead runs. It was his 21st homer of the season, and 69th RBI.

That’s what I’m expected to do, Corey said after the game. I expect it more than y’all or anybody else expect it out of me…I just tried to be my own self.

Now up by three, with the game on the line, Alex Colome entered in the ninth and plowed through the order for his 34th save of the season. Colome is now tied for the Major League lead in saves with Greg Holland (Rockies). It alsowas Colome’s 71st career save, tying him with Danys Baez for third all time saves leader for Tampa Bay.

The New What Next

The Rays will try to win their second game in a row on Friday with Jacob Faria (5-2, 2.81 ERA, 3.56 FIP) on the mound. He’ll start opposite of Carlos Carrasco (10-5, 4.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP).

Faria rebounded from a loss on Friday against the Brewers, notching a quality start while striking out nine over six innings of work. Unfortunately for the right-hander, the offense was blanked and he was tagged with a loss. Faria has nine quality starts in 11 outings.

Carrasco took the loss after he gave up five runs on six hits and two walks on Sunday. He struck out six. In 12 road starts this season, Carrasco is 7-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 70-2/3 innings. However, the veteran right-hander has now allowed 10 earned runs over his last two starts (7-1/3 innings). He was pulled after just 3-2/3 innings of work against the Rays in May after he allowed five runs on six hits (including a homer) and three walks. Key Matchups: Brad Miller (3-5, HR, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-5, 2B, RBI), Trevor Plouffe (5-17, 2B, 3 RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/11/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Miller 2B
Ramos C
Smith CF
Hechavarria SS
Faria RHP

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier (hip, back) will restart his rehab tomorrow for the Stone Crabs as DH. He Will DH Saturday and Sunday, with the goal to play centerfield on Tuesday. He told Roger Mooney (Tampa Bay Times) his hip is fine, and his back is healthy. Kiermaier hopes to return from the DL during the Rays next homestand, a week from today.

— Matt Andriese (hip) will make a four inning rehab start for Stone Crabs tonight.

— The reports on Jośe De Leon … he was pulled the other day because of elbow tendinitis, and there is no structural damage. He left a Class-A rehab start with forearm tightness.

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Rays 8/10/17 starting lineup and pregame notes; Odorizzi update

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(Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After dropping both games against Boston, the Tampa Bay Rays will open a four-game series today against Cleveland.

The Rays took two of three in Cleveland in May, winning the last two games. The Rays enter this four-game set in the throes of a historically bad slump, and have scored just four runs over the last four games.

Lucas Duda, who was a late scratch from the lineup last night with a left thumb contusion, is back in the lineup tonight hitting second out of the DH spot. Duda said his thumb feels better, that he’s “good to go” tonight, and that he didn’t need to test it during batting practice.

Blake Snell (0-6, 4.98 ERA, 5.05 FIP) will take the mound opposite of Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.35 ERA, 3.96 FIP).

Snell was recalled from Triple-A Durham on Tuesday after being demoted a week or so back. The southpaw is expected to start Thursday in place of Alex Cobb, who was placed on the disabled list with turf toe (retroactive to 8/6).

Salazar fanned a career-high 12 in seven innings of one-run ball against the Evil Empire in his last turn. He has been great since coming off the DL on July 22, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings. Salazar has now allowed just three runs on eight hits and five walks while striking out 28 batters in that stretch. The Rays were able to torch the right-hander for five runs on six hits (including four homers) over five innings of work on May 21. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-4), Corey Dickerson (2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-2, 2B)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 8/10/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr. RF
Miller 2B
Hechavarria SS
Smith CF
Sucre C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— RHP Jake Odorizzi, who left Wednesday’s game after being hit by a line drive on the right foot, is expected to make his next start on Monday. Odorizzi will throw a bullpen session before Friday’s ball game to test out that right foot before an official decision will be made.

— Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) asserted that right-handed outfielder Daniel Robertson, who was designated for assignment to make room for Jay Bruce on Cleveland’s 40-man roster, could be targeted by the Rays.

Topkin also noted that while the price is steep, the Rays might be wise to pick up Ian Kinsler, who was placed on revocable trade waivers by Detroit. Kinsler is owed just over $3-Million for rest of season, plus a $10-Million club option or a $5-Million buyout for 2018.

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