X-Rays Spex

TNWN: Rays vs Orioles — a series preview, part four

July 12, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Right-hander Emilio Pagan was fired up in the series finale against the New York Yankees last Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays0

After splitting their series against the New York Yankees, which was followed by the 2019 All-Star Break, the Tampa Bay Rays look to continue their winning streak when they start a four-game/three-day series against the Baltimore Orioles, on Friday. Meanwhile, in spite of a pretty lackluster first half, the Orioles, winners three of their last four games, are looking to continue a hot spate of play.

The second-place Rays enter play 6-1/2 games behind the Yankees and led the AL East through June 14. Yet, Tampa Bay is 10-12 since and retain a slender 1/2 game edge over Cleveland for the top AL wildcard spot.

Whether we’re 6 back, 2, 10, we just know each and every day we control our own destiny. We have to beat the teams we’re supposed to beat and we also have to beat the teams that are really good.
— Kevin Kiermaier

To Kiermaier’s point, Baltimore is one of those teams they’re supposed to beat, and the Rays have done just that to a large extent this season, going 5-3 over the first eight games of the season series, and outscoring them 42-27 (+15 run differential).

After traveling to Charm City, beginning a stretch in which Tampa Bay will play just 10 of its next 41 games against teams that currently have winning records, the Rays head to the Bronx for a four-game set against New York. The Rays need to use this series to increase the win/loss buffer and get on a hot streak ahead of that important series, which starts Monday.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Yonny Chirinos (4-4, 3.15 ERA), Charlie Morton (10-2, 2.32 ERA), Brendan McKay (1-0, 2.45 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale. Brandon Hyde will counter with Dylan Bundy (4-10, 4.65 ERA), a pitcher to be named before the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader, John Means (5-4, 2.64 ERA), and Andrew Cashner (9-3, 3.83 ERA).

Yonny Chirinos gave up three earned runs on five hits across seven innings, while striking out five and walking one against the Yankees. The right-hander continued his strong first half of the season with a sixth straight quality start, needing 101 pitches (66 strikes, 65% strike rate) to make it through seven frames against a tough Yankees lineup. Over 100 innings this season, Chirinos has emerged as a key component of the Rays’ pitching staff, and now boasts a 3.15 ERA, an impressive 0.99 WHIP, and a 3.68 K/BB.

Dylan Bundy allowed one run on three hits with two walks and six strikeouts over 6-2/3 against the Blue Jays on Friday. Bundy gave up a homer for the ninth time in the last eight games (a solo homer) but allowed just two other hits as he posted his lowest hit total since May 17. Bundy improved to 4-10 with a 4.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts across 91 innings this season. He is 4-5 with a 5.49 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays, and 18-22 with a 4.45 ERA in 50 starts at Camden Yards. Key Matchups: Avisail Garcia (6-12, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (4-14, 2 HR, 6 RBI, BB), Austin Meadows (1-3)

Brendan McKay allowed three runs over five innings on Friday against the Yankees, fanning three while walking none and allowing six hits. McKay gave up a solo homer to Aaron Judge in the first inning and a two-run single to Mike Tauchmann in the fifth. He now owns a strong 2.45 ERA through his first two big-league starts, although his 15.0% strikeout rate is nothing close to the 35.3% mark he managed in Triple-A this season. McKay will be the 26th man and will be recalled on Saturday for the doubleheader.T

TBA

Charlie Morton punched out 10 while allowing one run on five hits and one walk across 5-2/3 innings on Sunday. Morton found himself in a pitching duel with James Paxton and prevailed by only allowing a solo home run and generating 13 swinging strikes. Morton has back-to-back starts with 10 or more strikeouts and has a league-leading 83 punch outs on his curveball. Morton’s 2.32 ERA is the best in the American League heading into the second half of the season.

John Means allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits and no walks while striking out five across seven innings Wednesday against Tampa Bay. Means pounded the strike zone, with 71 of his 98 pitches going for strikes (72% strike rate). After throwing only 84 pitches and working five innings in his first start after being activated off the injured list on June 28, Means posted his longest start since May 6. While his 7.5 K/9 isn’t particularly impressive, Means maintains a 1.0 HR/9 and 2.4 BB/9 across 82-2/3 innings this season. As a result, he currently holds a 2.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 2019. Key Matchups: Michael Brosseau (1-3, HR, RBI), Yandy Diaz (1-4, 2B), Avisail Garcia (1-4, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (2-3, 3B), Joey Wendle (1-3)

TBA

Andrew Cashner pitched seven innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday, allowing just one run on three hits with four strikeouts and no walks. Cashner was nicked by Cavan Biggio for an RBI single in the fourth inning but otherwise was in complete control. Over his last five starts, Cashner has allowed only four earned runs over 32 innings, lowering his ERA to 3.83 and his WHIP to 1.19. He has a 2.28 K/BB overall. Cashner is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Guillermo Heredia (2-8, 2B, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8), Austin Meadows (2-3, 2B), Tommy Pham (3-11, HR, 2 RBI), Joey Wendle (3-8, 3B, 2 RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Diego Castillo (shoulder soreness) has been activated from the 10-day IL, while Hunter Wood will be recalled before Saturday’s game against the Orioles. In order to make room for them on the active roster, Chaz Roe has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right flexor strain, while Jose Alvarado has been on the IL with a right oblique strain.

— The Rays have promoted outfielder Jesus Sanchez to Triple-A Durham.

Tampa Bay Rays first-half report

July 9, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

All-Star infielder Brandon Lowe leads the Rays with 16 home runs on the season.

With 91 games in the books, the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the ceremonial second half on Friday in second place in the American League East 6-1/2 games behind the Yankees, with a 52-39 record. Let’s take a look at how the Rays did over the first half of the season.

Below, you will find team specific summaries as well as those broken down by players — both offensive numbers as well as those from the mound. I kept a written synopsis to an absolute minimum and let the charts (some of which were created by me, while others were pilfered) speak for themselves.

Rays Statcast hitting. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)

Rays batted ball profile. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)

Rays Statcast pitching. (Screen Grab: Baseball Savant)

Rays look to cap homestand with a win; on attendance, Alvarado, Castillo, and Duffy

July 7, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays have seen big crowds at the old big top the last six days, and another is expected this afternoon. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After a magnificent, 4-3 walk-off win over New York, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to gain another game on the AL East-leading Yankees before the All-Star Break this afternoon. A victory would give the Rays a series split and a winning homestand.

The walk-off win was the second for Tampa Bay this season and the third victory for the Rays in 12 tries against New York. A few key events led up to the Rays win.

Blake Snell allowed one run on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts across five innings of work. Even though he didn’t get the win, Snell followed his 12-strikeout performance from his last start with another stellar, albeit labor intensive, outing. The Yankees worked the hurler over his 93 pitch (62 strikes, 67% strike rate) outing, yet Snell certainly didn’t get any help from the home plate umpire, who made more than a few egregious calls.

(vs. RHH; green dots are balls, red are strikes)

(vs. LHH; green dots are balls, red are strikes)

For the fifth time in his last seven appearances, Snell averaged more than a strikeout per inning, as he lowered his ERA to 4.70 ERA with 122 strikeouts across 90 innings.

Chaz Rowe, doppelgänger of the singer for System of a Down, actually pitched well in the sixth inning. He notched three strikeouts (two swinging) while walking one on a beefy, yet effective, 24 pitches (13 strikes, 54% strike rate). Why? Because “he wanted too.”

https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/1147630350908215297

I guess you could say that Roe had his slider working on Saturday.

Down by one in the seventh inning, Nate Lowe hit his second homer of the season, a two-run blast to right field, giving the Rays a 3-2 lead.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1147640208663257088

https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147639152885850113

Colin Poche got within a strike of his first big league save, yet Aaron Hicks spoiled the occasion, hitting a two-out, 0-2 solo shot in the top of the ninth. However, Travis d’Arnaud ultimately had the last laugh, hitting his own two-strike, two-out solo homer into the first row of the right-field seats — capping the ballgame with Dan Johnson-like heroics.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1147652586037624832

https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147651416464461826

On Attendance

Tropicana Field has now played host to six consecutive games of 20-thousand plus baseball fans (yesterday’s attendance: 21,477), allowing the Rays to increase their per game attendance average to 15,385 — a difference of 802 fans per game over this time last season. They are one of just thirteen teams in the league whose attendance has increased over last season. In fact, the Yankees have seen their average attendance drop by 2,923 fans per game. A modest increase? Absolutely, but positive change is positive change, and I’ll take it.

Furthermore, Tampa Bay hit the 20-thousand home attendance mark for the time this season with another big crowd is expected this afternoon. For context, 20-thousand plus fans attended just nine of the 81 home ballgames last season. Tampa Bay IS a big league market…thank you fans for proving that point. Now, let’s keep things going after the All-Star Break.

The New What Next

All-Star Charlie Morton (9-2, 2.35 ERA) will start for the Rays in the series finale against New York, pitching opposite of James Paxton (5-3, 4.09 ERA).

Charlie Morton was dominant in his outing against Baltimore, allowing one earned run on four hits and a walk while striking out 12 across seven innings. Morton’s sole blemish of the contest came on a third-inning solo homer by Chris Davis, otherwise, he held the Orioles without an extra-base hit and didn’t allow a baserunner into scoring position until his final inning of work. It was his second double-digit strikeout performance of the season, and he’s now racked up 132 strikeouts across 107 innings of work. Morton has also supplied All-Star ratios, managing a 2.36 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

James Paxton allowed one earned run on eight hits and two walks while striking out three across six innings on Tuesday. Paxton surrendered just a solo home run to J.D. Davis in his outing — only his second quality start in seven chances since coming off the IL in late May. Paxton was unable to generate much deception with his pitches, recording just 12 swinging strikes on 103 total pitches (12% SwStr). The left-hander is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three career starts against the Rays, and 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts at the Trop. Key Matchup: Avisail Garcia (3-5, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part four

Rays 7/7/19 Starting Lineup

d’Arnaud 1B
Pham LF
Diaz 3B
Garcia RF
Lowe DH
Brosseau 2B
Adames SS
Kiermaier CF
Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are expected to place Jose Alvarado on the injured list today with a right oblique strain. The left-hander could be out two to six weeks depending upon the results of an MRI scheduled for today. Alvarado would be the 18th different player on the IL for Tampa Bay this season.

— Matt Duffy (hamstring) played five innings for the Gulf Coast League Rays on Friday and went 1-for-3 with a double and an RBI. After an off-day today, Duffy will likely play seven innings on Monday with the Charlotte Stone Crabs.

What he’s said to me is he feels the best he has all season long, so hopefully no setbacks, get him off and get him running. Let’s see how these first three, four games go before we start thinking when it’s time. He still has work to do timing-wise, but we’re thrilled he’s feeling better.
— Kevin Cash

— High leverage reliever Diego Castillo threw a 15-pitch live bullpen session with third baseman Matt Duffy standing in prior to Saturday’s contest against the Yankees.

Castillo, who has been sidelined with right shoulder inflammation since June 23, hit 98-100 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. He will pitch on Tuesday for the Stone Crabs and could rejoin Tampa Bay on Friday, in Baltimore.

He’s going to take a couple of days off and will throw an inning on Tuesday, and if all goes well, we’ll anticipate him being activated for Friday in Baltimore.
— Kevin Cash

Rays look to snap skid against Yankees; McKay optioned back to Durham

July 6, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays dropped another 8-4 ballgame in front of 22,182 fans. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

If you’re a fan of deja vu, then you’ll truly appreciate the last two ballgames by the Tampa Bay Rays. On Friday, as with Thursday, the Rays fell to the New York Yankees by a score of 8-4 in extra innings.

On the bright side, 22,182 fans attended last night’s contest — if you’re counting, that’s five consecutive games with 20,000-plus fans in attendance at Tropicana Field. You have to go back to 2017 for a comparable stretch of four consecutive games with 20,000 fans or more in attendance (July 6 – 9 vs. Boston). The Rays start the day with an average home attendance of 15,253 per game — up 670 per game from this point last season. If at least 21,000 fans attend the final two games of the homestand, Tampa Bay will end the ceremonial first half of the season with an average attendance of 16,500 (give or take). As I said before, moderate gains are still gains.

The Rays bullpen left a smudge on the night for Nate Lowe, who hit his first big league homer in the fourth inning. After working a 10-pitch at-bat against Masahiro Tanaka, Lowe drove the last offering 417.62 feet into the left-center seats, tying the game at one.

Lowe and behold. #RaysUp pic.twitter.com/3OV8taSEJo
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) July 6, 2019

https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147299296825548803

Lowe wasn’t the only one to hit a no-doubter Friday night. Mike Zunino, with the power of Mary J. Blige — whose music he walked up to — unleashed a massive 455.4-foot blast into left-field, bringing the Rays within a run of the Yankees in the fifth inning.

https://twitter.com/FOXSportsFL/status/1147305969233231872

https://twitter.com/DingerTracker/status/1147305390738235392

That snapped a 25-game (88 plate appearance) homerless streak for Zunino.

Yet, after the Rays took a very brief lead in the home half of the seventh, pinch-hitter Aaron Hicks tied it on the second pitch of his at-bat against Emilio Pagan. The right-hander was able to bounce back and throw scoreless ball the rest of the eighth and the ninth, keeping the game even.

Tampa Bay had an opportunity to end it in the ninth against David Hale. Joey Wendle singled to center and moved into second on a grounder to first by Mike Brosseau. Guillermo Heredia grounded out to third before Travis d’Arnaud walked on four pitches with Wendle advancing to third on a passed ball. However, Tommy Pham, who went 0-6 with three strikeouts, bounced out to short, ending the threat.

After Colin Poche worked a scoreless tenth, Ryne Stanek took the mound in the top of the eleventh inning. Aaron Judge welcomed Stanek rather rudely, drilling a first-pitch fastball over the wall in center, putting New York up by a run. The right-hander was able to bounce back and get the next two batters before Gleyber Torres hit a bullet line drive to left for a single. Gio Urshela followed with a double off the wall in left before Brett Gardner hit a three-run homer to centerfield.

#Rays optioned Brendan McKay back to Durham and have called up Ian Gibaut
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) July 6, 2019

Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay’s relief corps has performed to a combined 7.03 ERA and 4.11 FIP, and have given up 25 earned runs and seven homers. Because of the need for a fresh arm in the ‘pen, the Rays optioned Brendan McKay back to Durham and promoted southpaw reliever Ian Gibaut.

Gibaut entered Spring Training with a chance to make the big league squad thanks to a strong 2018 campaign in Durham, where he collected 14 saves while posting a 2.09 ERA with 75 strikeouts across 56 innings of work. A right lat strain set him back before the start of the season, however. The left-hander made his season debut on June 4 for the Class-A Stone Crabs, then moved up to Durham nine days later. In 11 minor-league games across two levels, Gibaut is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA, with four saves and 17 strikeouts over 11-1/3 innings.

The New What Next

The Rays will look to get off the schneid Saturday afternoon with Blake Snell (5-7, 4.87 ERA) on the mound. He’ll pitch opposite of Grimmace lookalike, C.C. Sabathia (5-4, 4.04 ERA).

Blake Snell struck out 12 and allowed two runs on three hits over six innings in a win over Texas on Sunday. Snell was desperate for a good outing after lasting just seven innings in his previous three starts combined. He got exactly what he needed Sunday. The 26-year-old lefty flattened the Rangers’ lineup with Joey Gallo’s two-run blast being the only significant damage he allowed. It was his first start with double-digit strikeouts since May 12 and he lowered his season ERA to 4.87 in the process.

C.C. Sabathia gave up two runs on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out nine on Monday. The Grimmace like southpaw did give allow some hard contact although his control was decent, throwing 64 of 104 pitches for strikes (62% strike rate) en route to his fourth quality start of the season. Sabathia will take a 4.04 ERA and 2.54 K/BB through 69 innings into his start on Saturday. Sabathia is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts (17 innings) against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (4-14, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Travis d’Arnaud (3-12), Kevin Kiermaier (5-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Tommy Pham (3-10, 2 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-2), Mike Zunino (5-11, HR, RBI, BB)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup is below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part four

Rays 7/6/19 Starting Lineup

Heredia LF
Pham DH
Diaz 2B
Garcia RF
Brosseau 3B
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS
d’Arnaud C
N. Lowe 1B

7/5/19 pregame notes; Rays draw +20K fans for the fourth consecutive game and 13th time this season

July 5, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

In spite of a late, game-tying rally, the Rays dropped the series opener against the Yankees on the Fourth of July, 8-4. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After an 8-4, extra-inning loss on Independence Day, the Tampa Bay Rays will try and figure out a way to overcome the Yankees on Friday night. The Rays have lost five consecutive games against the Yankees and eight-of-ten this season. New York enters play with the best record American League, having gone 28-7 within the division.

After winning four consecutive ballgames, the Rays have dropped two in a row while allowing 17 runs. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, 11 of those 17 runs have come in the final inning of those two games.

On the bright side, the Trop has now hosted four consecutive games of 20-thousand plus baseball fans, allowing the Rays to increase their average attendance to 15,099 per game — a difference of 455 fans per game over this time last season. They are one of just twelve teams in the league whose attendance has increased over last season. In fact, the Yankees have seen their average attendance fall by 2,923 fans per game. A modest increase? Absolutely, but positive change is positive change, and I’ll take it.

Furthermore, Tampa Bay has hit the 20-thousand home attendance mark 13 times in 2019, and we aren’t at the halfway point yet. For context, 20-thousand plus fans attended just nine of 81 home ballgames last season.

If the Rays can net at least 21-thousand fans over the final three games of this homestand, they will end the ceremonial first half of the season with an average attendance of 16,499, putting them between Oakland and Pittsburgh…but more importantly, above the lowest two teams.

To the Tampa Bay Rays, thank you for the family-friendly promotions and affordable ticket flash sales — they, indeed, are showing returns at the gate. Giving away free flags is also a good start, although we shouldn’t be happy until this town is painted with sunbursts and Rays signage. To the fans, I know it’s been a tough slog with the owner proclaiming doom and gloom, and making inflammatory proclamations that do nothing more than pit fan against fan, and municipality against municipality (and yes, I still think the sister season concept is nothing more than a leverage ploy). Good on all of us for keeping our head down and focused on something other than Stu.

Let’s continue to push those attendance numbers up. Get out to the ballpark and show Sternberg that WE CAN support our guys! At the end of the day, WE are on the up and up regardless of what anyone says about us.

The New What Next

Brendan McKay (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his second big league start tonight, pitching opposite of Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.74 ERA).

Brendan McKay pitched six scoreless innings in his big league debut, allowing just one hit (tracked at 66.5 mph off the bat) and one walk with three punch outs. The left-hander took a perfect game into the sixth inning when he gave up two baserunners. McKay’s curveball was especially sharp, as he held Texas to 1-for-18 on his breaking pitch and generated 11 swings and misses.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed six runs on four hits and two walks across 2/3 of an inning on Saturday. He did not record a strikeout. The first game in London saw neither team’s starter make it out of the opening frame, with Tanaka delivering his worst start of the season by a significant margin. The 30-year-old now has a 3.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 3.70 K/BB over 98-2/3 innings this season. Tanaka has been very tough against the Rays this season, going 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA in three starts (22 IP). Key Matchups: Willy Adames (3-12, 2B, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (1-4), Kevin Kiermaier (8-31, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Tommy Pham (4-15, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Joey Wendle (3-8, 2B 2 RBI), Mike Zunino (5-19, 2 2B, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Yankees — a series preview, part four

Rays 7/5/19 Starting Lineup

Meadows RF
Pham LF
Kiermaier CF
Diaz DH
Lowe 1B
Adames SS
Wendle 2B
Brosseau 3B
Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are expected to have Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup tonight. Kiermaier has missed the last two games because of wrist soreness.

— Matt Duffy went 1-for-2 yesterday in a rehab outing with the Gulf Coast League Rays and played third base for five innings. He is scheduled to DH today.

—Brandon Lowe was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday.