X-Rays Spex

Rays look to bounce back from the disappointing 2-0 loss against Le Tigre

August 17, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays will take on the Tigers on throwback night at the Trop.

After a frustrating 2-0 loss against the Detroit Tigers on Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back on the winning side of the ledger tonight at the Trop. Tampa Bay enters play two games back of Cleveland for the top Wildcard spot, but just a half-game ahead of the Athletics, who won 3-2 over Houston, for the final Wildcard spot.

Even though Tampa Bay boasts Major League Baseball’s best road record of 40-23, the team is just 31-29 at home. They have dropped three of their past four home games, and have been held scoreless in two of those contests. Overall, the Rays have not scored in 17 consecutive innings since Tommy Pham’s first-inning two-run homer against San Diego on Wednesday.

Making last night’s game all the more frustrating, a questionable strike three call made by the home plate umpire, which was the difference between a two-out, bases-loaded scoring situation and the end of the ballgame. With two on, Erik Sogard worked the count full against a struggling Joe Jimenez, only to be called out on strikes on what clearly appeared to be ball four.

There’s “strike” 3 on #Rays Sogard pic.twitter.com/n7mQFie91R
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) August 17, 2019

And while a different outcome in at-bat wouldn’t necessarily have born fruit, it would have been nice to see the Rays get one more shot at a walk-off against the worst team in baseball.

Taking the last two losses into consideration, the Rays playoff hopes dropped to 69.5% per FanGraphs. Baseball Prospectus has Tampa Bay at a more favorable, albeit diminished, 76.9% chance of a postseason berth.

The New What Next

Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.56 ERA) will get the ball for the Rays, pitching opposite of Jordan Zimmerman (1-8, 7.13 ERA).

Ryan Yarbrough threw 8-2/3 superb shutout innings against Seattle, scattering three hits and walking none. He struck out eight. Yarbrough needed just 99 pitches (73 strikes, 74% strike rate) to deliver 26 outs but was denied his first career complete game and shutout when manager Kevin Cash turned to closer Emilio Pagan to retire the final batter of the game. Pitching as a traditional starter for the first time in four outings, the southpaw flummoxed Seattle’s hitters all afternoon, allowing only a trio of singles and preventing any Mariner from reaching scoring position. The 27-year-old has now allowed one run or fewer in 13 of his 20 appearances this season and has not been charged with a loss since giving up five runs on June 13. He maintains a 3.56 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 6 K/BB over 98-2/3 innings. Yarbrough is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in a three-inning appearance against the Tigers.

Jordan Zimmermann earned his first win of the season almost 20 days ago after he gave up two just earned runs on four hits against the Angels across 5-1/3 inning outing. He struck out two. Zimmermann, however, was placed on the 10-day IL six days later with neck spasms. It’s been a rough season for Zimmermann, who was winless over his first 13 starts of the season. He returns to the mound sporting a 7.23 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 66 innings. Accordingly, Zimmermann has been the opposite of stellar over his career at the Trop, going 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA in four starts. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (1-3), Ji-Man Choi (2-4, 2B), Travis d’Arnaud (5-17, 2B, RBI), Matt Duffy (4-7), Guillermo Heredia (2-3), Kevin Kiermaier (6-11, 2B, HR, RBI), Erik Sogard (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Tigers — a series preview, part two

Rays 8/17/19 Starting Lineup

Sogard 2B
Pham LF
Meadows RF
Aguilar DH
Choi 1B
Duffy 3B
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS
Zunino C

Noteworthiness

— On the rehabilitation front, Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle are expected to play today and tomorrow for the Charlotte Stone Crabs. Both then will join the Durham Bulls on Tuesday after an off-day on Monday.

— As expected, RHP Trevor Richards has been added to the taxi squad, in expectation that he will be recalled Sunday. Richards will wear number 34.

Rays promote RHP Peter Fairbanks; injury notes

August 16, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Flame thrower Peter Fairbanks was promoted to the Rays on Friday.

The Tampa Bay Rays announced that right-handed pitching prospect Peter Fairbanks has been promoted to the big leagues. Fellow right-hander Jose De Leon was optioned back to Durham in place of Fairbanks.

#Rays recall RH Peter Fairbanks
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) August 16, 2019

Fairbanks, 25, was acquired in a trade that sent fellow infielder Nick Solak from Tampa Bay to Texas.

The right-hander boasts an electric mid-to-upper ’90s fastball and a slider that flashes plus-plus at times. FanGraphs called Fairbanks an “impact relief piece,” while grading his fastball (70/70)/slider (55/55) combo as one of the best for burgeoning relief prospects across the minors.

Interestingly enough, Fairbanks started his career with a low 90’s heater and credited the increase in velocity to a change in his delivery as he rehabilitated from Tommy John surgery.

The rehab team was all on board with it. It’s happened really fast. It’s still baseball. It’s just in front of a lot more people who really care how you do. I knew if I sucked this year, I’d be released, probably.

— Peter Fairbanks

The former ninth-round draft pick has pitched to a 3.96 ERA with a whopping 14.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 4.87 K/BB, 0.49 HR/9 and an above-average ground-ball rate across 36-1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, and fanned 19 batters in 10-1/3 innings at Durham.

Noteworthiness

— Tyler Glasnow has been throwing from 90 feet and is scheduled for his first bullpen session on Monday.

— Both Joey Wendle and Brandon Lowe told Juan Toribio (MLB.com) that they feel better from their respective injuries and all went well in their first rehab games. They still need to play a couple more games before they will be activated from the IL.

TNWN: Rays vs Tigers — a series preview, part two

August 16, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

The Rays look to keep their streak, of three consecutive games with a first inning home run, alive against the Tigers this weekend. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After a successful 5-1 west coast road trip, the Tampa Bay Rays returned home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will start a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Friday. The Rays took two-of-three from the Padres, while the Tigers dropped two-of-three against the Mariners.

Detroit hasn’t had many bright spots this season, although INF/OF Brandon Dixon is in the midst of a decent campaign, hitting a team-leading 14 home runs along with 43 RBI and a .261 batting average. He is 3-for-12 with one run batted in against Tampa Bay this season.

Yet one player does not a team make. The Tigers weak lineup is second to last in all of baseball, scoring an average of 3.67 runs per game. The pitching staff isn’t much better, posting an overall 5.23 ERA and 4.88 FIP (starters 5.26 ERA and 4.68 FIP, relievers 5.14 ERA and 5.14 FIP). The Tigers, who according to Fangraphs could be a historically bad team, own a 19-39 road record.

The Tigers Might Be Historically Bad

Detroit’s pitching staff has squandered at least five runs in eight out of their last ten games, while Tampa Bay has plated at least five runs in four out of their last six games overall.

The injury-stricken Rays have managed to score consistently of late, and enter play with a two-game cushion over the Athletics in the American League Wildcard race.

FanGraphs gives the Rays an 81.5% chance of a playoff berth, while Baseball Prospectus gives them a far more favorable 90.3% shot of making the postseason.

The Rays took two of three over the Tigers in Detroit earlier this season.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Charlie Morton (13-4, 2.90 ERA), Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.56 ERA), and a pitcher to be named ahead of the series finale. Ron Gardenhire will counter with Daniel Norris (3-10, 4.94 ERA), a pitcher to be named before Saturday’s contest, and Matthew Boyd (6-9, 4.38 ERA).

Charlie Morton allowed four runs on nine hits over six innings against Seattle on Saturday. He struck out 10. For the fifth time this season, Morton recorded double-digit whiffs, while Saturday marked the sixth time he didn’t walk a batter. Morton did give up a fifth-inning homer to Omar Narvaez, however, the bullpen allowed just one baserunner over the final three frames to preserve the win for Uncle Charlie. The right-hander has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 184 strikeouts across 149 innings this season and is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers.

Daniel Norris allowed four runs on four hits and two walks while striking out four across three short innings against the Royals on Sunday. Norris was hit hard in the first three innings, allowing two solo homers in the first inning and allowing a two-run shot in the third frame. With Norris nearing his innings limit, this could be the way he is used for the balance of the season. The southpaw has a 4.94 ERA with 102 strikeouts in 21 starts this season. Norris is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3), Travis d’Arnaud (1-2, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Guillermo Heredia (5-8, HR, 3 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, 2B, RBI), Austin Meadows (1-3, RBI), Erik Sogard (1-2)

TBA

Matthew Boyd allowed seven runs (six earned) over 5-1/3 innings of work on Tuesday against the Mariners. He gave up seven hits and walked two while striking out four. Boyd was victimized four times by Seattle long balls…and the home run ball has been a big problem for Boyd. He was tagged for three homers in his last start, in which he allowed five runs in over 2-2/3 innings. On the season, Boyd has now allowed 30 home runs across 146 innings, and his ERA climbed to 4.38 after the rough start Tuesday. Over his career, Boyd is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, RBI), Guillermo Heredia (3-4, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-4, RBI, BB)

Noteworthiness

— Infielders Joey Wendle and Brandon Lowe began their rehab assignments in a game Thursday with the Gulf Coast League Charlotte Stone Crabs. They should be back with the big league squad at some point over the next seven days.

Rays look for a series win Tuesday night; Jose Alvarado activated from the IL

August 13, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Matt Duffy, who drove in three runs on four hits and a walk, and Erik Sogard both scored in a four-run eighth inning Monday night. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After defeating the San Diego Padres on Monday, 10-4, the Tampa Bay Rays will try for a series win Tonight. At 70-50 on the season, Tampa Bay is 20-games above .500 for the first time since 2013, when the Rays last reached the postseason. The Rays were also 20-games over .500 the other three times they made the playoffs: 2011, 2010, and 2008.

According to the team, since the second Wildcard was added in 2012, all 27 teams to win 70 or more of first 120 ballgames made playoffs.

The Rays enter play two games ahead of Oakland for the final Wildcard spot, and two behind Minnesota for the lead Wildcard spot. FanGraphs gives them an 81.1% chance of a postseason berth, while Baseball Prospectus gives them an 85.7% likelihood of playing beyond September As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) writes, Tampa Bay is 39-22 on the road, best in baseball, and has won eight straight games away from Tropicana Field. The Rays also are 12-4 against NL clubs this season.

The New What Next

Brendan McKay (2-2, 4.55 ERA) will make his seventh big league start, pitching opposite of fellow southpaw Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.51 ERA).

Brendan McKay allowed three earned runs on six hits and a walk while striking out eight over five innings against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. McKay continued to post impressive strikeout totals, backed by 14 swinging strikes on 93 total pitches (15% SwStr). His outing was soured by two homers, although both were solo shots. He now has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with 33 punchouts across 29-2/3 innings on the season. Tuesday’s appearance will be the two-way player’s first opportunity to pitch and hit in the same game.

Eric Lauer threw four innings and gave up three runs on 10 hits while striking out two. Lauer did little to stifle Colorado’s offense as he allowed at least one hit in each inning and induced only four whiffs. The result could have been worse if not for a number of defensive plays behind him, including a putout at home plate followed by a double play to end the threat after Lauer allowed three consecutive singles to begin the fourth inning. The 24-year-old maintains a 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 2.87 K/BB across 109-2/3 innings. Lauer relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam and an 88 mph cutter with strong cutting action, while also mixing in a 77 mph 12-6 curveball that has some two-plane movement. Key Matchups: Tommy Pham (2-5)

You can read about the series in our preview, while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.

TNWN: Rays vs Padres — an Interleague series preview

Rays 8/13/19 Starting Lineup

Heredia CF
Meadows LF
Duffy 3B
Garcia RF
Choi 1B
Adames SS
Sogard 2B
Zunino C
McKay LHP

Noteworthiness

— Left-handed reliever Jose Alvarado will re-join the team tonight after a month-long (give or take) stint on the Injured List. Austin Pruitt, who threw four innings last night, has been optioned to Durham to create space on the active roster for Alvarado. He needed just five rehab appearances between the Class-A Advanced Charlotte Stone Crabs and the Triple-A Durham Bulls to be reinstated from the injury.

The Rays will need another bulk or starting pitcher sometime after the upcoming off-day, on Thursday.

— On July 28th, Tommy Pham attempted to stretch a single into a double. In doing so, Pham fractured his hand on a head-first slide, which, when faced with a question of why he hasn’t been in the lineup as often of late, he confirmed in an interview with Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times):

Pham didn’t have a lot of specifics to offer but said the injury is more than a sprain.
I’ve got some problems, he said. There’s a small fracture, but it’s small enough where I can play. And I’ve got some swelling.
— Marc Topkin

Kevin Cash has used Pham sparingly although the outfielder is hesitant to rest his injury. In eight games since the injury, Pham has five hits (three doubles) across 34 plate appearances.

Ever the fighter, Pham made it known that he has no intention of going on the IL:

I’m not going on the injured list, I’ll fight them on that.
— Tommy Pham

The team is granting his wishes for now, although Rays officials are requesting second opinions on his hand to determine the new what next.

TNWN: Rays vs Padres — an Interleague series preview

August 12, 2019 By Schmitty Leave a Comment

Emilio Pagan warming up before taking the mound in the series finale against the Mariners on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Rickie Dixon)

After sweeping the Seattle Mariners for the first time since 2012, three games to none, the Tampa Bay Rays make their way to San Diego, where they are set to begin a three-game Interleague series on Monday. The Padres took three-of-four from the Rockies over the weekend.

Although they have played well of late, the Padres have struggled offensively this season. Their .246 BA is 20^th in the league, their .312 OBP is 23^rd, while their .434 SLG is 17^th. San Diego is also in the bottom third in runs scored, having plated 526 overall. They enter play 6-1/2 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals, who currently hold the second NL Wildcard spot, however, the Padres are still seven games under .500 on the season, and have a sub .500 record at home.

The Rays won their last six games away from the Trop and have played well on the road. They also have an 11-4 record in Interleague play this season and are 35-16 against sub .500 teams. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has performed like the should over the last week, maintaining a 2.78 ERA and 3.05 FIP overall. Much of their recent success is due in large part to the relief corps, which has been pretty good since the trade deadline, performing to a combined 1.03 ERA and 2.45 FIP. Taking National League rules into consideration, expect Kevin Cash to be bullish with the ‘pen at any given opportunity.

The Rays swept the Padres in three games the last time the two teams met in 2016.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will throw Austin Pruitt (1-0, 5.16 ERA) behind an opener, Brendan McKay (2-2, 4.55 ERA), and Jalen Beeks (5-1, 3.71 ERA) presumably behind an opener. Andy Green will counter with Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.19 ERA), Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.51 ERA), and Cal Quantrill (5-3, 3.21 ERA).

Austin Pruitt was recalled from Triple-A Durham last Monday. In his most recent outing against Toronto, Pruitt allowed just two hits across two innings while striking out one. Still, the right-hander has thrown 20-2/3 unremarkable innings for Tampa Bay this season over seven relief appearances, maintaining a 5.66 ERA and an unsightly 18.2% strikeout rate.

Joey Lucchesi allowed two runs on five hits and a walk across 5-1/3 innings in a loss on Wednesday to the Mariners. He struck out eight. Lucchesi was unable to secure a quality start, as he was lifted after retiring the first batter of the sixth inning with his pitch count at 102. He has performed to a 4.19 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 3.05 K/BB over 122-1/3 innings this season. Lucchesi relies primarily on a 91 mph sinker with little arm-side run and a whiffy 80 mph changeup that has surprising cut action, while also mixing in a 91 mph four-seam fastball with some natural sinking action. Key Matchups: Jesus Aguilar (1-2, BB), Guillermo Heredia (1-2)

Jalen Beeks allowed two runs (one earned) on five hits and two walks across 3-2/3 innings Friday. He struck out four. Beeks started for only the second time this season, although he wasn’t able to complete four innings in the appearance. He allowed RBI base hits to Domingo Santana in the third inning and Ryan Court in the fourth. The southpaw has a steadily increasing 3.71 ERA with 2.17 K/BB in 80 innings across 24 games this season.

Cal Quantrill allowed just five hits over seven shutout innings against the Rockies on Friday. He struck out five. It was the longest outing of the season for Quantrill, and the third time in his last five starts that he hasn’t allowed a run. The right-hander has allowed just five runs (three earned) across his last 29 innings of work, lowering his ERA from 4.83 to 3.21 in that span. Quantrill takes a 3.17 K/BB over 70 innings into his start in the series finale, on Wednesday. He relies primarily on a 95 mph sinker, a 95 mph worm-killer four-seam fastball, and a whiffy 87 mph Slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup with cutting action and a lot of backspin.

Noteworthiness

— Jose Alvarado put down the only batter he faced for Triple-A Durham on Sunday. It is not yet clear if the right-hander will rejoin the team in San Diego or have additional outings in Durham.

— Blake Snell is expected to play catch on Monday for the first time since having bone chips removed from his throwing elbow. He is still on track to return in September.