X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

A Rays-centric recap of day one of the 2019 Winter Meetings

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The 2019 MLB Winter Meetings got underway on Sunday.

Tasked with improving on a 96-win 2019 campaign, Tampa Bay Rays officials — including manager Kevin Cash and GM Erik Neander — arrived in San Diego on Sunday for the start of the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings. Sunday is typically a quiet day in terms of wheeling and dealing since many of the teams are still in transit.

Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi, and Brandon Lowe are expected to return to Tampa Bay in 2020, barring a trade, and they will join newcomer Hunter Renfroe. In addition, the Rays retained Mike Zunino and acquired Brian O’Grady, who is a first baseman that is also capable of playing all three outfield positions, from Cincinnati to add more depth. The team, however, lost three key offensive players in Tommy Pham, Travis d’Arnaud, who signed as a free agent with Atlanta, and Avisail Garcia, who remains a free agent. Tampa Bay also passed on Jesus Aguilar, Matt Duffy, and Guillermo Heredia.

Neander and company head into the Winter Meetings looking to improve the team’s offense. And while Tampa Bay had the lowest team ERA in the American League last season, the offense struggled at times, finishing 18th in the big leagues in runs scored per game.

There’s a lot of time between now and Opening Day, and I think I anticipate some twists and turns in terms of what our team will look like by the end of March when we get going. We really like the position group we have. (I’m) interested to see what that looks like, and we really like our pitching staff.

— Erik Neander

Several right-handed-hitting options remain on the free-agent market. That list includes several former Rays such as CJ Cron (would have to accept a limited role), Steven Souza Jr. (finally healthy after missing all of 2019), and Garcia. A few other names have popped up, such as 37-year-old Edwin Encarnacion, the ever-unpredictable Yasiel Puig, and the powerful yet defensively limited Domingo Santana. And as Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted if Tampa Bay adds a left-handed bat there are less of those available as free agents, and more likely may require a trade of some sort.

To that end, the Rays are expected to study the catching market in order to try to improve at the position.

The catching position is something we’ve talked about and that’s pretty clear. I think bringing back (Zunino), we’re betting on Mike to bounce back some offensively, but we can certainly continue to look for ways to strengthen that position further.

— Erik Neander

As of now, no beneficial moves have come out of San Diego. That could change over the next four days though.

On the docket for Monday, Kevin Cash will address local and national media members at 7:20 Eastern Standard Time (4:20 in San Diego).

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Rays trade Tommy Pham to San Diego, acquire Hunter Renfroe

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The Rays dealt OF Tommy Pham to the Padres early Friday morning.

Early Friday morning, the Tampa Bay Rays dealt outfielder Tommy Pham and minor league middle infielder/relief pitcher Jake Cronenworth to the San Diego Padres for power-hitting OF Hunter Renfroe, Single-A shortstop Xavier Edwards, and a player to be named later. In doing so, the Rays received a controllable, elite defender while shedding a projected $8.6-Million in salary. Be that as it may, Pham was a beloved key member of the 90+ win 2018 and 2019 Tampa Bay ball clubs, whose presence will be missed.

If Blake Snell’s reaction to the trade speaks to anything, it’s that this move wasn’t instantaneously popular within the Rays clubhouse.

At any rate, Renfroe, 27, was a first-round draft pick for San Diego in 2013. He has slugged at least 26 homers in each season since debuting in 2017, including 33 in 2019. However, injuries (he played with a bone spur on the top of his right foot during the second half of the season, requiring October surgery) thwarted his hot start in 2019, and the outfielder ultimately wound up slashing .216 BA/.289 OBP/.489 SLG/.778 OPS across 494 plate appearances. Even so, he ranked sixth in the National League (13th in MLB) with a 13.3 home run to at-bats ratio.

Renfroe was an elite defender in 998 innings divided among all three outfield positions last season, ranking second in the big-leagues with 22 Defensive Runs Saved per FanGraphs and a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Renfroe is projected to make around $3.4-Million in 2020, in the first of four arbitration-eligible years. He will likely accompany Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier as the Rays’ starting outfielders in 2020, although the team is reportedly interested in a reunion with free-agent OF Avisail Garcia. Double-A outfielder Josh Lowe, who played in the Arizona Fall League in 2019, could also impact the big-league roster at some point next season.

Pham was an effective outfielder for Tampa Bay over the past 1-1/2 seasons and racked up a combined 13.6 fWAR extending back to 2017 (including 3.3 in 2019). He is coming off a year in which he slashed .273 BA/.369 OBP/.450 SLG/.819 OPS with 21 home runs, 81 walks, 69 RBI, and 25 stolen bases across 654 plate appearances.

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote, the deal was not wholly unexpected:

Of the four players the Rays have making more than $5 million, Pham was the most likely to go. The others are centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier ($10 million salary) and starters Charlie Morton ($15 million) and Blake Snell ($7 million).

— Marc Topkin

Rays GM Erik Neander foreshadowed such a move on Thursday in his comments ahead of the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings when he was asked about improving the roster stocked primarily with young players.

There’s a lot of time between now and Opening Day, and I think anticipate some twists and turns in terms of what our team will look like by the end of March when we get going.

As much as we like the complexion of our roster, I think in order to find paths to improvement and advance our efforts we might have to change the complexion of that some way. Some shape, somehow, just because of where we sit right now. So beyond (potentially adding a catcher), we’re going to be open-minded, we’re going to try to be opportunistic. But it probably will take some creativity in terms of the way we go about doing that at this point, because there’s not a lot of clear-cut paths given the group we have.

— Erik Neander
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Rays non-tender Guillermo Heredia

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The Tampa Bay Rays chose not to tender the contract of Guillermo Heredia Monday afternoon with just one hour left until the deadline.

The Tampa Bay Rays have non-tendered outfielder Guillermo Heredia, meaning he is now a free agent and will take his services onto the market. The team chose to tender the contracts of the five other arbitration-eligible players: Oliver Drake, Tyler Glasnow, Tommy Pham, Daniel Robertson, and Chaz Roe.

Heredia, who was projected to earn $1.1-Million by MLB Trade Rumors, came over in the deal that also brought over Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay prior to the 2019 season. In 231 plate appearances, as the fourth outfielder, Heredia slashed just a .225 BA/.306 OBP/.363 SLG/.666 OPS line with a wRC+ of 82 — in line with his career body of work. However, his splits against southpaws were much better, with Heredia slashing .281 BA/.339 OBP/.456 SLG/.795 OPS with a 114 wRC+ across 124 plate appearances.

As Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) noted, the Rays have not ruled out a reunion with Heredia in 2020, however, there is a greater likelihood that they will seek an upgrade as the hot-stove period progresses.

Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors estimated the salaries of the five above-mentioned arbitration-eligible players, and came up with the following approximations:

  • Oliver Drake — $1.1-Million
  • Tyler Glasnow — $1.9-Million
  • Tommy Pham — $8.6-Million
  • Daniel Robertson — $1.1-Million
  • Chaz Roe — $2.2-Million

Per Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) the five tendered players will make roughly $15-Million in 2020:

The five players tendered will earn in the neighborhood of $14.9 million in 2020. Add in the approximately $32.5 million that five players under contract are to receive (Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Mike Zunino and that’s that’s about $47.4 million for 10 players. Several others would make near the minimum in 2020 (ie — Willy Adames, Austin Meadows, Diego Castillo etc) but there are still several areas to improve upon in order to upgrade next year’s version of the Rays from a 96-win total and a year that ended in the ALDS.

— Neil Solondz

Noteworthiness

— Could a reunion with former Ray Steven Souza Jr. be in the cards?

The not very affable Kevin Pillar, as well as Souza Jr. and CJ Cron, are among the right-handed-hitting players that were non-tendered on Monday.

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Rays designate Jesus Aguilar; acquire Brian O’Grady

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The Tampa Bay Rays designated Jesus Aguilar for assignment on Wednesday.

The Tampa Bay Rays made a pair of roster moves on Wednesday, acquiring outfielder/first baseman Brian O’Grady from the Cincinnati Reds — who, in turn, will receive a player to be named later and cash — while designating first baseman/designated hitter Jesus Aguilar for assignment to create roster space. Aguilar had been projected to earn $2.5-Million in arbitration.

Aguilar, who was traded to the Rays at the July 31st deadline, turned in a .261 BA/.336 OBP/.424 SLG/.760 OPS slash line, with a 103 wRC+ across 107 plate appearances and 37 games (26 starts). His modest production, however, was not enough to motivate the Rays to commit to his salary and tie up a roster spot. The six-year veteran of Cleveland, the Brewers, and Tampa Bay is a career .256 hitter with a .805 OPS, 63 career home runs, and 215 RBI making him an interesting target for teams in need of 1B/DH help.

O’Grady is a left-handed hitter who earned his first shot at the big leagues last season. The speedy multi-dimensional player scuffled in his limited opportunities, although he showed well with Triple-A Louiseville, where he was co-MVP. At the Triple-A level, O’Grady slashed .280 BA/.359 OBP/.550 SLG/.909 OPS with 28 home runs, 77 RBI, and 20 stolen bases over 489 plate appearances. He became Louisville’s first-ever player to hit at least 20 home runs and swipe 20 bases in the same season.

Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) wrote about O’Grady, saying:

O’Grady also made nine starts and appeared in 28 games for the Reds, his first MLB action. Following the season, he was ranked by Baseball America as the Best Defensive First Baseman in the International League in its Best Tools survey. In the outfield, Grady has played all three spots, with more time in left field and center than right.

O’Grady was selected by the Reds in the eighth round of the 2014 June Draft out of Rutgers University, where he earned third team All-Conference honors as a senior. Over six minor league seasons, he is a career .252 hitter with an .807 OPS with 76 home runs, 299 RBI and 85 stolen bases.

— Neil Solondz

Tampa Bay now has six arbitration-eligible players to decide upon since Aguilar and Matt Duffy were designated for assignment, and Mike Zunino agreed to terms.

Those remaining players and their estimated 2020 contracts (courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors) are:

  • Oliver Drake — $1.1-Million
  • Tyler Glasnow — $1.9-Million
  • Guillermo Heredia — $1.1-Million
  • Tommy Pham — $8.6-Million
  • Daniel Robertson — $1.1-Million
  • Chaz Roe — $2.2-Million.

As Solondz notes:

The six players above will earn about $16 million in 2020 if they all are tendered. Add in the approximately $32.5 million that five players under contract are to receive (Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Mike Zunino and that’s that’s about $48.5 million for 11 players. Several others would make near the minimum (ie — Willy Adames, Austin Meadows, Diego Castillo etc) but there are still several areas still to improve upon in order to upgrade next year’s version of the Rays from a 96-win total and a year that ended in the ALDS.

— Neil Solondz

The Rays have until 8 p.m. Monday to decide whether to tender a contract to the above mentioned arbitration-eligible players.

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Rays agree to $4.5-Million contract with Mike Zunino

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The Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a $4.5-million contract with catcher Mike Zunino.

The Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a $4.5-Million contract with catcher Mike Zunino. He will remain under team control for the 2021 season with a $4.5-million club option.

The contract pays Zunino a bit less than he might have anticipated — he was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $4.9-million via arbitration. However, the option year includes an escalator provision that allows Zunino to augment his potential salary by up to $750-thousand based on the number of plate appearances he takes next season, according to Mark Feinsand (MLB.com, Twitter link).

Zunino was at risk of being non-tendered by Tampa Bay, yet with Travis d’Arnaud heading to Atlanta, the team decided to hang onto a known quantity to platoon with Michael Perez behind the plate.

Zunino is a valued defender who has a history of productivity in the batter’s box…his lackluster 2019 campaign precluded, of course. Zunino slashed just .165 BA/.232 OBP/.312 SLG/.544 OPS/.235 wOBA with a 45 wRC+ across 289 plate appearances. Yet in 2017, Zunino rode a .251 BA/.331 OBP/.509 SLG/.840 OPS/.355 wOBA/126 wRC+ slash line and a .355 BABIP over 435 plate appearances. Yet last season he managed only a .220 BABIP. As Jeff Todd (MLB Trade Rumors) noted, Statcast suggests the dip is the product of both misfortune (his .271 xwOBA dwarfed his .235 wOBA) and a performance downturn (36.9% hard-hit ratio, down from 46.9% in 2017).

Defensively, however, Zunino was among the best in the big leagues with a 34.1% caught stealing percentage, and third in the American League in the defensive runs saved at nine.

Tampa Bay is banking heavily on an improved performance from Zunino in 2020.

We’re pretty committed to Mike here. We don’t expect a repeat of 2019. This deal came together because we believe Mike is capable of providing more offense than he did last year, his total defensive impact is as good as it gets, he’s a great teammate, and he wants to be here.

— Erik Neander

Noteworthiness

— Matt Duffy, who was designated for assignment last week, has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent.

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