58 games have come to pass, and despite the sheer number of injuries − both small and large − the Rays are still, somehow, a relevant team. Some guy who used to manage the team coined the phrase, “pitching and defense are in our DNA.” Although that guy is now in some baseball panacea far north of the Tampa Bay area, that phrase holds true.
For example, take their most recent 10-game jaunt that took the team through Baltimore, Anaheim, and Seattle. The Rays ended the road-trip with a 7-3 record, although they averaged a whopping 3.5 runs per game (35 runs total). Why? Because the pitching staff allowed an average of 2.4 runs per game (24 runs total). All this with the big three − Alex Cobb, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly − on the disabled list.
Unfortunately for the Rays, it’s looking like Jake Odorizzi could be added to the DL. Odorizzi left Friday’s game after 4-1/3 innings with an oblique tightness. While he has not officially been ruled out for his next start, it seems likely that he will miss some time in the very least. More bad news for a team that’s been ravaged by injuries.
If you were to ask Rays’ beat writer Marc Topkin, he’d probably tell you that the question isn’t whether Jake Odorizzi will be placed on the DL, rather the question is for how long. Even though an official decision hasn’t been made, Rays manager Kevin Cash said it was “fair to say” Odorizzi would miss some time.
I wouldn’t say a lengthy period of time, but he’s sore, Cash said. We have to be smart with him. The last thing we want to do is get him out there and test it, and then something more or worse happens.
Odorizzi remained optimistic, based on how he felt waking up Saturday:
It was no worse than Friday, he said. I was able to move around and turn around and do all that stuff. I wasn’t locked up or anything like that, so that’s a good sign.
He allowed, however, that he won’t know for sure until he tries to throw, which won’t happen until after he sees team orthopedist Koco Eaton on Monday.
Who will take Odorizzi’s spot in the rotation if the prognosis dictates an addition to the DL? Assuming Odorizzi is out, the off-day Monday gives the Rays some time to adjust their rotation. Nathan Karns and Erasmo Ramirez will make their planned starts on Tuesday and Wednesday (respectively) against the Angels. Tampa Bay could bring Alex Colome back on regular rest on Thursday − Odorizzi’s next scheduled start − or call up a starter from Triple-A Durham, with Matt Andriese or Andrew Bellatti being the most likely candidates. Who gets promoted and when will be complicated, however, based on how long a replacement would be needed.
Dylan Floro is also an interesting, albeit unlikely, option due to the fact that he is not currently on the 40-man roster. And while an addition to the DL would open up a spot on the front end so to speak, the team would have to designate Floro for assignment once Odorizzi returns, opening up the possibility that another team could acquire the prospect off waivers. Too, with the Rays contending, they may want as many roster slots available as possible as we near the trade deadline.
Whatever the case, it is incumbent upon the other starters to pitch deeper into games, regardless of the situation. Alex Colome has now strung together back-to-back six inning affairs after working past the sixth only once this season (May 11 against the Yankees). Erasmo Ramirez has thrown six plus innings twice, and Nathan Karns has done the same four times this season, yet not with consistency. Then again, perhaps it’s time for Cash to take off the reins and allow the above mentioned three to pitch deeper into games.
Better yet, they could pitch deeper and let’s hope Odorizzi can avoid a stint on the DL altogether. I like that option best.
Moving forward.
A question that’s been asked of late, are the numbers that Joey Butler and Jake Elmore have posted real? It’s a fair question since both players have lengthy minor league careers void of consistent play at the major league level. Butler has mostly played in the designated hitter role, giving David DeJesus and Brandon Guyer the opportunity to spend more time in the field, although he has also done well in his limited time playing the outfield. As for Elmore, the mega utility player has spent time in the outfield, third base, second base and most recently at first. He too has done fairly well.
I decided to compare their numbers to those of Desmond Jennings and Tim Beckham − the two players they replaced due to placement on the disabled list. Also included in parenthesis are their ZiPS projections.
Butler has been a godsend to the Rays, although most scouts would probably tell you that he remains a 4-A ballplayer that will regress at some point, either sooner of later. His projections support that idea. When that happens, Desmond Jennings may be healthy and Butler may be the odd man out. Then again, Jennings may be out for a significant amount of time, and Butler might only regress slightly to his .316 BA/.365 OBP/.496 SLG/.861 OPS/.376 wOBA overall major league career line.
One thing that works in his favor is his ability to hit the ball hard to all parts of the field, showing he’s not a dead-pull hitter. Another thing that works well is his ability to put the ball in play. And while he’s been pretty damn lucky, a .446 BABIP speaks to that, Butler’s batting average on balls in play dipped below .341 only twice in his career; 2010 in 63 at-bats and 2011 in 55 at-bats. My guess, once pitchers adjust to Butler, who has shown that he will swat at pitches 29.5% of the time, those numbers will regress to league average. The question will then be, will he be able to adjust back?
Elmore has offered Kevin Cash flexibility in the field, something that only a few other players on the team possess. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he was recalled on the heels of a 10-game hitting streak at Durham, and that production has carried over with the big-league squad. Elmore is a regression candidate as well, yet with the exception of his SLG, the utility player projects to put up similar numbers to that of Beckham (who also projects to regress). A potential quirk in the ZiPS projection system; Elmore is pegged to post a .308 OBP for the duration of the season which could be an anomaly for the player who has performed under his current rate just three times (a combined 221 total plate appearances) over his career.
Regardless, both players have helped the team in their short time here. Let’s hope someone is able to step up to the task if/when the regression takes place − I’m looking hard at you Nick Franklin, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Rene Rivera.
Noteworthiness
− Chris Archer fanned 38 and walked none in his last three starts. That’s now three consecutive games with double digit strikeouts and no walks − a major league history making feat. His 11 strikeouts Sunday gave King Chris the most K’s (108) in the American League; one more than Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians. The closest competitor to that duo is Felix Hernandez with 81.
− Worry not, Archer notices your love and affection. He just doesn’t have time for it.
− Tonight marks the beginning of the MLB draft. At number 13, the Rays boast their highest spot in the draft since 2008 when they chose Tim Beckham. Scott Dauer (DRaysBay) put together a draft primer, targeting the possible corner position power hitters, and the pitchers who may be potential candidate for the Rays.
− Craig Edwards (FanGraphs) wrote an incredibly interesting piece on Major League Baseball’s perception problem as it relates to attendance. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to explain why this article is pertinent to the Rays.