The Rays were victorious Sunday, beating the Astros by a score of 5-2 in the series finale. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)
The Rays were victorious Sunday, beating the Astros by a score of 5-2 in the series finale. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

The Rays are back at it Monday, following a quite successful series against the Astros. They’ll welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates into The Trop for a three-game Interleague Series — their first visit in 11 years. The Pirates, who have won three of their last four games, are 9-4 in their previous 13 road games, while Tampa Bay has won seven of their last 11 contests, averaging 4.4 runs in that span.

For the Rays, all of the facets of their game have started to click in concert. The defense has been great, the pitching has been phenomenal — especially over the last 14 days — and the hitters have finally shown they are capable of getting those all important timely hits. Consider that the pitchers (both starters and relievers) struck out 50 Astros over the duration of the last series, while relinquishing a total of five runs. Furthermore, the Rays pitching staff own a 2.43 ERA over the last seven days, with an 87.8% left on base percentage. That, my friends, is excellent.

Playing in the Rays favor, reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen has cooled off significantly since a red-hot start to June, going 3-for-20 over five games. Meanwhile, Evan Longoria has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, including three singles in the 5-2 victory over Houston on Sunday.

If the Rays’ pitchers can negate the bats of the Pirates, and if the hitters can continue to get those timely hits, the odds are in favor of Tampa Bay walking away with a series win against the Buccos.

An aside, it was written,

Expectations were high for both teams going into this year after Tampa Bay (31-46) went to the postseason for the fourth time in six seasons and Pittsburgh ended a 21-year playoff drought.

However, the Rays are languishing with baseball’s worst record while the Pirates are trying to get back to .500 for the second time since April 17.

Personally, I like Evan Longoria’s response to the quagmire the Rays have placed themselves in:

We’ve got a lot of work to do. We put ourselves in a pretty good hole, but I think that the belief on a daily basis is still we can come to the ballpark and win.

Take that how you will. However, I’m looking at things through a different set of lenses. The Rays start the day (Monday) with a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. At the same time, they are projected to put up a .516 winning percentage from this point on. With the odds significantly stacked against them, it would be incredibly hard for the Rays to put together a postseason run. However, if you are like me (a fan of the Rays and baseball in general) you share a wanton desire for Tampa Bay to be competitive and consistent, which they can be — the projected WP speaks to that. If the improbable (not the impossible) were to happen, we Rays’ fans would be better for it. However, I just want to see them win, period.

Rays and Pirates series starters over the last 14 days (unless otherwise noted).
Rays and Pirates series starters over the last 14 days (unless otherwise noted).
Rays and Pirates offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Pirates offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Pirates, by the numbers.
Rays and Pirates, by the numbers.

Edinson Voloquez: Voloquez is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in his last two starts against the Tampa Bay Rays. Regardless, he has been hammered for three or more runs in six of his total 15 outings this season, including last Wednesday when he gave up eight runs on six hits in 2-1/3 innings of work. Voloquez has garnered a reputation of being a pitcher with little control of the zone, this season throwing 30% of his pitches outside of the strike zone. Of the 11 homers he’s given up this season, seven have come against his sinker, while hitters have pounded him to the tune of a .342 BA against the aforementioned pitch. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (3-6, 2B, 3 RBI), Jose Molina (3-6, 2B, 3 HR, 3 RBI, BB).

Jeff Locke: Locke (0-1, 3.76 ERA) may be the most fearsome starter the Rays will face in this series. Despite getting pounded  for six runs in his first start back at the beginning of May, the 26 year-old lefty has cleaned up his act — relinquishing only five runs in his last 21 innings of work. Locke is wont to attack hitters (not nibbling at the edges) with his fastball, utilizing his upper 70’s change-up as his put away pitch. Key matchups: James Loney (1-1), Jerry Sands (1-2, 2B).

Charlie Morton: Morton (4-8, 3.47 ERA) has been categorized as a two-pitch pitcher, thanks to his reliance on the fastball and curve ball — a tandem he relies upon over 90% of the time. Morton owns a +52% GB% due in part to a nasty, sinking two-seam fastball which, historically, destroys right-handed batters, and creates serious problems against left-handers. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (1-4), James Loney (2-2, HR, 3 RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

  • Pittsburgh has won five of nine all-time meetings, taking two of three in its lone visit to Tropicana Field in 2003.
  • The Rays are finally over the .400 threshold, with a .403 WP, and a .465 Pythagorean Expectation (36-41). That is, the Rays should be only five games under .500
  • Tampa Bay’s pitching staff boasts a major league-leading 669 strikeouts in 691 innings.
  • Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier is hitting .301 with four homers in 27 games this year.
  • James Loney got Sunday off after going 5 for 13 in the first three games against the Astros.
  • Per Marc Topkin, “After starting the season 10-28, the Pirates have won 27 of their past 37 games. Reigning NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, batting .351, leads the league with 52 walks and ranks among the leaders in doubles (22) and slugging (.523). OF Gregory Polanco had his career-opening 11-game hitting streak snapped but is still batting .345. Starling Marte’s 17 stolen bases are fifth in the league. Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom in the NL in ERA and walks, and only the Rockies have fewer strikeouts. From May 1 through Saturday, the Pirates led the majors in hits (470), on-base percentage (.350) and average (.278). They’re the only team in the NL that has had five players put together hitting streaks of at least 10 games.”
  • Despite going 15-5 in Interleague Play last season, the Pirates have won only four of their first 10 in 2014.
  • Pirates RF Gregory Polanco will have to start a new streak after going 0 for 3 with a walk Sunday, ending his career-opening hitting streak at 11 games.
  • Per Fox Sports Florida, Josh Harrison or Clint Barmes figure to get one final start at second base Monday. Regular second baseman Neil Walker, out since June 8 due to an appendectomy, is expected to be activated by the Pirates on Tuesday.
  • Your tweet of the day…urm, somewhat similar:

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