The Tampa Bay Rays start a three-game set in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. (Photo courtesy of James Ray)
The Tampa Bay Rays will start a three-game set in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. (Photo courtesy of James Ray)

Fresh off a big win in the series finale against St. Louis, the Tampa Bay Rays will start a three-game set against the Astros, in Minute Maid Park, Friday Night. Compared to this time last season, the Astros have improved whereas the Rays, well… Because of it, this three game set promises to be interesting.

Houston is playing its best baseball in years. Once the laughing stock of baseball, after losing a whopping 324 games over the past three seasons, the Astros have been energized this season thanks in part to rookies George Springer and Jon Singleton. Springer has nine homers and 22 RBI in his last 18 games, and Singleton has three homers and nine RBI in 10 games since being called up. What’s more, DH Chris Carter has gotten toasty, entering the series with three solo homers in his last two games for the resurgent Astros, who are 20-11 since May 11. Meanwhile, Friday’s starter, 26 year-old Collin McHugh, has gone 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three outings. The Astros have won all three contests, while he’s held opponents to a .188 batting average. Not playing in the Rays favor, Houston has gone seven straight series without a series loss.

The Rays, on the other hand, are in the midst of their longest road losing streak since a 12-game slide July 30-Aug. 30, 2006. A positive; they ended a stretch of 31 consecutive scoreless innings at the plate Wednesday night.

Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros series starters.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros offensive production at home, away, and overall.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.
Rays and Astros, by the numbers.

Collin McHugh: McHugh has been very good this season, due in part to the use of his off-speed stuff — namely a very good curve ball with ridiculous vertical movement. The Astros righty has been able to incur a 19.5 percent swinging-strike rate, while opponents have hit a minuscule .025 with a .075 slugging percentage against it. Per the Brooks Baseball graph below, McHugh’s curve dropped an average of 9.02 inches in April and 8.61 inches in May. The second graph shows the horizontal movement, which was 8.73 inches in April and 7.73 in May.

Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Vertical movement graph. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Horizontal movement graph. Positive movement on the curveball indicates how much it moved away from righties and in to lefties. (courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated writes, “Moreover, when McHugh spots his curveball at or beneath the bottom of the strike zone, hitters have barely been able to lay off. Of the 118 curveballs that McHugh has thrown at or below opposing hitters’ knees, they have swung at 53 of them and come up empty on 29 of those swings. The information is reflected in the two graphs below.”

Colin McHugh percentage of whiffs. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Colin McHugh percentage of whiffs. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Jarrod Cosart: Per Rotowire, “Cosart allowed three runs on five hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six solid innings to earn his fifth win of the season Monday against the Diamondbacks.” Cosart was incredibly good in his one start against Tampa Bay last season, giving up only two hits in eight innings of work. Cosart’s quick arm generates a mid 90s fastball with plenty of movement to boot. He also features a power curve and change that has good separation from his fastball. His change, however, doesn’t feature notable movement. Expect Cosart to coax a fair number of grounders and a few strikeouts along the way. A caveat for Cosart, his motion features little deception, giving hitters an opportunity to see the ball for extended periods of time. To that end, Craig Goldstein of Fake Teams writes, “While Cosart generates a lot of movement on his fastball by using a crossfire delivery, he also sacrifices control, both due to the delivery and the exceptional spin imparted by it.”

Brad Peacock: Peacock has been plagued with control issues over the years, this season being no different. The fly-ball pitcher has also given up his fair share of homers, which could bode well for the Rays in the hitter friendly confines of the Juice Box. He’s given up three or more runs in six of his 13 outings, averaging just under five innings per outing. You’d expect the Rays to be able to hit Peacock hard — here’s to hope, anyway.

Noteworthiness

  • Per Marc Topkin, “What’s new: The Astros have won 13 of their last 18 games. They began Thursday 6-3 since the debut of 1B Jon Singleton, who signed a contract for a guaranteed $10 million this month before his first major-league game. RF George Springer has also made a huge imprint as a rookie, becoming the first Astro to hit 12 home runs in his first 47 games. CF Dexter Fowler is third in the AL with a .393 on-base percentage, and 2B Jose Altuve is on pace to become the third player with at least 50 doubles and 50 steals in the same season. Houston’s pitching is in the bottom half of the league in runs and walks, and only the White Sox have fewer shutouts than Houston’s two.”
  • Tampa Bay leads the series 11-8 overall, and 8-5 in Houston.
  • The Astros entered Thursday with the second-worst average in the league (.240) but the third-most home runs (71).

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