With last nights five run, 10 hit handling of the Marlins, a ray (no pun intended) of light seems to be breaking through the cloud bank that is lack of run production. I loved watching the Rays chip away at the Marlins over the course of the game last night. Sure, high scoring wins are exciting. But in my opinion, so is watching the Rays generate runs over the course of an entire game; scratching out insurance run after insurance run over the duration. Thursday’s seven run, 10 hit affair was no different. Take this into consideration, the Rays have scored 12 runs on 20 hits, while giving up only four runs and committing two errors in the last two games. Juxtapose that with the fact that they scored only one run on eight hits, while giving up 11 runs and committing three errors in the previous two games. They also outscored the Orioles 14-6 over the span of that three game series.

True, the first two games of the Yankees debacle were sloppily played messes. But, if you were to take those two games out of the equation, the Rays would have scored 26 runs in five games, or 5.2 runs per game. That’s an average of 1.25 runs more, per game, than in the month of May. That poses a couple of interesting ideas: A) Tampa Bay’s offensive woes may finally be working themselves out, and B) it’s glaringly obvious that the Rays defensive woes only have made their lack of offense that much worse.

What you’ve seen over the last seven days is a team that is being carried by players, who are filling in the gaps for the big guns that aren’t getting the job done. Carlos Pena, for example, has one run and a couple of RBI in the last seven games. Yet, Matt Joyce has been a one man production powerhouse in the last seven games, scoring six runs and driving in a couple of RBI, while posting a .333 BA/.476 SLG/.600 SLG/1.076 OPS on five hits and five walks in 15 at bats. Jose Lobaton has had a very surprising week, reaching base safely six times in 10 at bats, while driving in a run and scoring a couple of runs. I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge Drew Sutton’s two big doubles the other night, which drove in three runs combined. Honorable mentions go to BJ Upton and Desmond Jennings also, who each had a pair of doubles and a triple this week, accounting for five runs and five RBI.

It bears mentioning that Tampa Bay has only hit two homers in the last seven games. The Rays run production has been predicated on getting runners on, moving runners over, and getting runners home. In short, I wouldn’t get fully comfortable just yet. After all, a five game sample size really isn’t a huge indicator of an upward trend. However, it does show a team that is capable of scoring five plus runs per game. That’s especially important if the Rays are going to continue to give up runs on errors.

Tampa Bay will need to be ready to face a tough Carlos Zambrano (4-3, 2.53 ERA). Not many Rays hitters have faced Zambrano. And those that have, have had moderate success against him. BJ Upton, Luke Scott, and Hideki Matsui are hitting a combined .307 against the righty. As with last night, I doubt we’ll be seeing Scott in anything but a pinch hitting role tonight. When Zambrano is good, and he has been this season, he has a 85% plus groundball to flyball ratio. With the Marlins competent infield, it may be tough for the Rays to sneak any hits on the ground tonight. It would be amazing to see one of his famous meltdowns though. So let’s hope the Rays can get to him, not only for the win, but to watch him go ape-shit.

Zambrano saber oriented numbers by pitch type. (courtesy of brooksbaseball.net)
Zambrano vs. lefties
Zambrano vs. righties
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Rays 6/9/12 starting lineup. (Courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays)

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